Democrats for David Catania
Why are Democrats across the city voting for David Catania for Mayor? Find an early vote location at https://www.dcboee.org/ev.
By: David Catania
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Democrats for David Catania - Video
Democrats walk out on Obama Speech!
The magic that President Obama once enjoyed at political rallies appears to have vanished into thin air, as a crowd of spectators walked out on the president during a speech for Democrats Sunday...
By: CleanTVcom
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Democrats walk out on Obama Speech! - Video
CNN: Democrats Are Already "Finger-Pointing" After Obama #39;s Comments On 2014 Democrats
CNN: Democrats Are Already "Finger-Pointing" After Obama #39;s Comments On 2014 Democrats (October 21, 2014)
By: GOPICYMI
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CNN: Democrats Are Already "Finger-Pointing" After Obama's Comments On 2014 Democrats - Video
Two weeks ago, we looked at initial early voting data compiled by the U.S. Election Project with the aim of sussing out how campaigns were doing at putting votes in the bank. At that point, it seemed like Democrats were doing particularly well in Iowa and North Carolina compared to voter registration numbers. Republicans were doing well in other battleground states.
Now, that's changed. Compared to overall voter registration, Iowa and North Carolina Democrats are doing much worse than earlier in the month, and Republicans in those states much better. We've also added new states that recently began early voting: Nevada, California and Colorado. In each, Republicans are outperforming Democrats.
How to read this: A red or blue dot above the diagonal line shows that the Republican (or, for a blue dot, Democratic) vote in the state comprises a larger percentage of the early vote than the total voter pool. A dot below the line indicates that the early vote is under-performing for that demographic. The further above or below the line the dot falls, the better or worse the group is faring. The change since the last time we did this is indicated with a line connected to the small dot at the previous percentage.
Interestingly, unaffiliated/undeclared voters are uniformly underperforming their registration numbers, perhaps in part because campaigns aren't targeting them as aggressively in the early vote process. But that puts the poor performance of Democratic campaigns in sharper relief. If unaffiliated voters are underperforming as a percentage of all of the votes that are in, one would expect the two parties to be overperforming.
But Democrats aren't. The bad news for them is clear: the extent to which the red dots are above the line and the blue dots are below it. In what we expect to be a relatively low-turnout election, Democrats would want (and really need) to leverage their generally superior turnout mechanisms to bank votes early. So far, they're getting beaten at that effort.
The bad news for Republicans is that as we mentioned two weeks ago these numbers can and will change quickly. As always, it's the trend that's worth watching, and while the red dots are mostly rising, they're falling in Florida and Maine. (In Georgia, where data areavailable in terms of the race of the voter, the number of black voters voting early is rising, which can be read as another good sign for Democrats, since they are a reliably Democratic constituency.)
The bottom line: Republicans are seeing what they want higher rates of turnout among their voters.
Philip Bump writes about politics for The Fix. He previously wrote for The Wire, the news blog of The Atlantic magazine. He has contributed to The Daily Beast, The Atlantic, The Daily, and the Huffington Post. Philip is based in New York City.
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The Fix: Democrats have an early vote problem
Democrats have long had an electoral advantage among women, particularly among single and suburban professional women, that has helped propel them to victory in elections both in presidential and non-presidential years. In 2008, for example, exit polling showed thatPresident Obama won women by 56% to 49%;and in 2012,the breakdown was 55% to 44%.The reasons for the disparity in these elections, and in many others at the national, state, and local level, have been the subject of speculation for decades, ever since the so-called gender gap was first noticed. Among the factors that have been cited has been the fact that women tend to have more liberal views on economic and pocketbook issues and tend to support a less aggressive foreign policy, although that last one doesnt really apply to the Democratic Party in the age of Obama, and, of course, the fact that the Republican Parrys stance on social issues, as well as debacles like 2012's comments by various candidates about abortion and rape and the comments of many on the right about birth control issues, have turned women off to the party as a whole. That doesnt mean that Republicans cant do well among women, of course. Ronald Reaganwon the womens vote quite handily in his 1984 landslide,for example, andGeorge H.W. Bush won it narrowly in his smaller 1988 landslide.More recently, just last year, Chris Christie won the womensvote in deep blue New Jersey by twelve points. In 2010,Republicans won women by a narrow 1%on the way to taking control of the House. Now, as we head into a midterm that could hand control of the Senate,President Obamas problems with women, which seem to have come out of nowhere, threaten to hurt his party:
Female voters powered President Barack Obamas victory over Mitt Romney in 2012, as Democrats leaned heavily on social issues to rally single women and suburban moms to the polls.
But with two weeks until Election Day, the presidents diminished standing with women is quickly becoming one of the biggest liabilities facing Democrats as they struggle to hang onto the Senate majority.
In battleground states across the country, Obama is underwater with female voters especially women unaffiliated with a political party and its making it harder for Democrats to take advantage of the gender gap, according to public polling and Democratic strategists.
Already Democrats are taking a beating from men, who back Republicans over Democrats by double digits in most of the key Senate races. But to overcome that deficit, Democrats need to win over female voters by a wider margin in battleground states like Colorado, Iowa, Alaska, North Carolina and New Hampshire. That task that will be the primary focus of Democratic campaigns as they prepare an intensive voter-turnout operation.
First, they must overcome the Obama factor. After defeating Mitt Romney by 11 points among women in 2012, the president has seen his approval rating drop sharply with females, particularly in the battleground states.
In Alaska, for instance, Obama lost soundly in 2008 and 2012. But hes only gone downhill from there, especially among female voters, only 29 percent of whom give him high marks. Obamas unpopularity could be having a spillover effect on Sen. Mark Begich (D-Alaska), who is fighting for his political life against Republican Dan Sullivan. In one recent CNN/ORC poll of likely voters, Begich was losing women to Sullivan by 7 points.
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According to a Quinnipiac poll this week, Democratic Sen. Mark Udall was trailing by 19 points to his GOP challenger, Rep. Cory Gardner, among male voters. In that poll and a new CNN poll, the Republican was down only 9 points among women. In 2010, when Colorado Sen. Michael Bennet barely beat GOP candidate Ken Buck, the Democrat won female voters by 17 points and lost men by 10, according to exit polls. Most Democrats believe Udall needs a similar advantage to win.
But the presidents sharp decline in Colorado has made life much harder for Udall. The CNN poll showed 60 percent of white women disapproving of Obamas job performance and 56 percent of nonwhite women also holding negative views. Just two years ago, Obama outperformed Romney in Colorado, 51-49 percent, among female voters, according to exit polls, as the president carried the state.
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Obama's diminished standing among women is hurting Democrats in the midterms