The Gender Gap: Warning Signs for Democrats
Democrats have a lot to worry about in the midterm electionsbut one of their sturdiest bulwarks against a GOP rout in the fall has been support among women. They have held significant leads over Republicans among women by a number of polling measures.
But the latest Wall Street Journal/NBC News Pollhas some warning signs for Democrats who are counting on women to help them weather a tough political climate.
An important bellwether is the question of which party voters would prefer to control Congress, and it has long been the case that men prefer a Republican Congress and women favor a Democratic Congress.
But the poll conducted Sept. 3-7 found that womens Democratic preference had shrunk to a 47%-40% margin down from 51% -37% a month earlier. The swing was especially sharp among white women, who gave Democrats a 4 point edge in August; in the new poll, Republicans enjoyed 48%-40% advantage.
It is hard to assess what accounts for that shift but, if it proves a durable trend, the stakes are high. GOP pollster Bill McInturff said that maintaining support among women is critical for Democrats in the midterm elections, or else a difficult cycle becomes a really terrible cycle for Democrats.
The poll also found that womens feelings about the Democratic Party have soured, as 39% expressed positive feelings toward the party, down from 44% in June. And their support for Obama is also eroding especially on foreign policy, with only 33% approving of his handling of foreign policy compared with 46% a month ago.
Jeff Horwitt, a Democratic pollster who worked with Mr. McInturff to conduct the poll, said those findings invite comparison to the 2010 midterm elections, when Republicans won the House majority and exit polls showed the GOP winning a rare victory among women (49%-48%).
The results among women in this poll should be a cautionary tale for Democrats, Mr. Horwitt said. What we dont know is if this is a trend or a blip.
However, the poll also showed that voters had more confidence in Democrats to look out for the interests of women by 45% to 17% a 28-point margin, wider than on any other issue assessed by the poll.
In the midterm battle for control of the Senate, some of the most important trends are not measured by national polls but polls within the states where contested races are being held. In New Hampshire, appealing to women is crucial to the campaign of Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen to keep her Republican opponent Scott Brown at bay. The Granite State Poll in August found Ms. Shaheen was leading Mr. Brown by 53%-39% among women even as her overall advantage was measured to be only 46%-44%.
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The Gender Gap: Warning Signs for Democrats