The Fix: The 2014 election was very bad for Democrats. It was almost even worse.
As bad as things were for Democrats on Nov. 4, it appears they could have been even worse. Witness: A new survey from the Public Religion Research Institute.
The poll shows that19 percent of Republican voters made up their minds in the final week of the campaign.By comparison, nearly one-third 31 percent of Democratic voters say theydecided in the final seven days of the campaign (including 10 percent on Election Day).
Toput that in perspective, consider that the generic ballot favored Republicans 52to47. If you extrapolate those late-deciders onto those numbers,around 10 percentage points worth of the GOP's 52 percent of voters would have decided to vote Republican in the closing days, while 14.5 pointsof the Democrats' 47 percent held out that long including about five points until the final day.
Before those late deciders ... well ... decided, the GOP would have led by about nine or 10 points on the generic ballot, at least according to this poll. (Again, this is rough math.)
Had those late-deciders broken more evenly, or a few extra points' worth of Democrats decided not to vote at all, it's possible that the GOP's 52-47 margin could have been even bigger, and maybe we'd be talking about more GOP House seats and/or a 10- or 11-seat GOP gain in the Senate rather than a likely nine-seat gain (with the possible additions of states like Virginia and New Hampshire).
That's all very hypothetical, though, and these are national numbers not focused on key Senate races -- so they are only so useful. Also, it's quite possible those Democratic late-deciders are simply partisans who weren't all that enthusiastic about voting and, thus, didn't technically decide until the very end, even as their votes were basically foregone conclusions.
But for what it's worth, exit polls in Georgia, North Carolina and Iowa all showed much the same thing: Republican Senate candidates leading by substantial margins amongearly-deciders, and Democratsleading by several points or more among late-deciders.In Georgia, for instance, people who decided their vote in final week favored Democrat Michelle Nunn, 50-43. People deciding earlier favored Republican Sen.-elect David Perdue, 55-43.
Andfor Democrats fretting about just how bad last week was, these polls suggest at least to some degree thatthey dodged another bullet or two.
Aaron Blake covers national politics and writes regularly for The Fix.
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The Fix: The 2014 election was very bad for Democrats. It was almost even worse.