Should Democrats Turn to South Carolina’s Special Election Next? – Roll Call
Democrats enthused by last weeks primary in Georgia, and their strong showing in Kansas earlier this month, have been making noise about playing more aggressively in upcoming elections that were previously dismissed as long shots specifically Montana.
Mentioned less often, however, is South Carolina.
Most people dont realize SC-05 is the most competitive election of any of the specials weve had so farin terms of congressional matchups, said South Carolina Democratic strategist Tyler Jones.
By which he means that this districts Democratic candidate for Congress last fall earned a higher percentage of the vote than Democrats in the Kansas or Georgia districts. This years special election in the Peach States 6th District got all the early attention, Jonessaid, because of Hillary Clintons narrow loss there.
President Donald Trump carried South Carolinas 5th District by 9 points less than he carried Kansas 4th District in November.
While the Democrat still lost the Kansas special electionearlier this month, the Republicanwinner finished20 points worse than Trumps margin of victory last fall. If that shift in partisan performance in Kansas were applied in the South Carolina district, We would win, Archie Parnell saidin a Monday interview.
Parnell is the leading Democrat running for the seat left behind by former Rep. Mick Mulvaney, a co-founder of the Freedom Caucus, whos now the director of the Office of Management and Budget. Before Mulvaney, former Democratic Rep. John M. Spratt Jr. held the seat for 28 years.
The primaries to fill the seat are next week. Unlike Georgia, where 18 candidates from all parties ran together, Democrats and Republicans will run in separate contests on May 2. And if no one receives more than 50 percent of the vote, therell be runoffs two weeks later.
Out of seven Republicans, three are most often mentioned as front-runners: State House Speaker Pro Tempore Tommy Pope, former state Rep. Ralph Norman, and former South Carolina Republican Party Chairman Chad Connelly.
Among the three Democrats in the race, Parnell has raised the most money and has an impressive team behind him, including John Anzalone for polling and GMMB for media consulting.
Its not like the guy has spent 10 million bucks, but he is communicating. Hes out there, hes a full-time candidate, said one Democrat involved in the race. Parnell launched his first TV ad Monday, which he said is running on cable and broadcast.
All the Democratic Party establishment types he just waved his check and they fell in line, said South Carolina Democrat Phil Noble of Parnell, a former Goldman Sachs adviser. Noble questioned how much enthusiasm there is for a relatively unknown candidate on the ground.
Parnell gave his campaign $100,000 of the $243,000 he raised during the first quarter. Hes prepared to spend more of his own money on the race, but he wouldnt say how much. I have a number in my head, but thats in my head, he said.
Democrat Alexis Frank, a 26-year-old Army veteran, raised just $44,000, and admitted to voting for Mitt Romney. But Jones, the Democratic strategist, cautioned that shes not to be discounted. While Parnell has received the most national attention, both candidates have field operations that often go unnoticed outside the district. And even if Parnell does finish first, he still needs to clear 50 percent, not an easy feat in a three-way primary.
With Parnells round tortoise-shell glasses, the 66-year-old tax lawyer doesnt present the boyish fresh-face that Georgias Jon Ossoff does, nor does he offerthe quirkiness of Rob Quist,the Democratic nominee in Montana, whos a musician in the Mission Mountain Wood Band.
But Parnells defenders say hes not pretending to be anything he isnt, andthat might just be his biggest strength.
He supported Clinton in last years presidential primary, and although he wouldnt wade into social issues in theinterview, this father of two daughters left little doubt where he stands on abortion, an issue that recently roiled the Democratic Partys unity tour.
Im running for Congress, Im not running to be anybodys doctor, he said, adding that he also opposed Republican efforts to defund Planned Parenthood.
Parnell said hes in touch with the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and that he expects to have more of the groupssupport after the primary. Hed be particularly appreciative of their resources and assistance in the field, he said.
With a 28 percent African-American population, Democrats argue that the district has more of Democratic base than Kansas. Similar to Georgias 6th, South Carolinas 5th District includes suburban businesspeople who commute to Charlotte. Its not a bunch of rednecks, Noble said.
Parnell knows the race will be a steep hill, but his campaign is looking to follow Ossoffs model of expandingturnout. In other words, they want to turn presidential-election voters into special-election voters.
But Georgia continues to suck up much of the national attention and some nearby South Carolina Democratic volunteers. The general election for both seats ison June 20.
No one is really talking about this race, other than mentioning it quickly, said one national Republican, pointing to Trumps 19-point victory in the district as an explanation.
Of course, Kansas went for Trump by even more than that, so you never know, the Republican added.
For Parnell, the next hurdle is winning next Tuesdays primary, possibly a runoff, and finding out who his Republican opponent will be.
It hasnt caught fire like the other ones, said one Democrat involved with Parnells race. But theres a spark there.
Correction 12:54 p.m. | An earlier version of this story misstated the number of years Rep. John M. Spratt Jr., D-S.C., held the 5th District seat. He represented the district for 28 years.
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Should Democrats Turn to South Carolina's Special Election Next? - Roll Call