Mediaboss Marketing

BEIJING Hong Kong police said Tuesday that they would clear the citys main pro-democracy camp later this week, setting up a possible final showdown with protesters after a court order authorized the sweeps.

The operation, set to begin Thursday, reflects the waning support for demonstrators after more than two months of civil disobedience and clashes over Beijings role in directing elections in the former British colony.

Sympathy for the student-led protests was high at the outset, especially after police used tear gas on activists. But the prolonged occupation and the more-confrontational tactics of the radical fringe, whose members tried to break into government offices, eroded that support.

Authorities will begin clearing the main site, in Hong Kongs Admiralty district, at 9 a.m. Thursday, according to a lawyer representing a bus company that brought the court action.

Although the court order did not cover the entire protest site, police said they would take the opportunity to clear all the occupied areas.

After we assist the bailiffs clearing the areas in the injunction, we will clear the rest of the occupied areas according to the law, the assistant police commissioner, Cheung Tak-keung, said at a news conference, telling protesters to pack their belongings soon and warning that police would arrest anyone obstructing the operation.

Police will not take actions if protesters stick to their original principles of peace and nonviolence, but we have seen violence being used, he said. Protesters should not step up their actions or police will have to use more force.

Numbers at the protests have dwindled sharply in recent weeks, and morale appears to be flagging. Some activists have begun packing their tents and removing artwork from the site in anticipation of the final clear-out.

Hundreds of people thronged the site late Tuesday to capture what could be the last photos of the protest. The movement represents the most serious challenge to Chinas control of Hong Kong since the territorys 1997 handover.

Police shut down a protest site in another Hong Kong district, Mong Kok, late last month after a separate court order, making about 160 arrests in several nights of clashes with demonstrators.

More here:
Hong Kong democracy protesters brace for final camp shutdown

By Hein Goemans December 9 at 8:00 AM

[Joshua Tucker:One of our regular features here at The Monkey Cage is summaries from political scientists of recently published research. Thanks to a generous collaboration from journal publishers, we have arranged for articles that are featured in this series to be "ungated" and made freely available to the public for a period of time following the post on The Monkey Cage. During this time, you can download (and keep) the article described in the post. So if you are interested in keeping up on recent political science research but do not currently have access to political science journals, these posts can be one way to get access to interesting recent articles. The current post (begins below the five stars) is from political scientistHein GoemansofUniversity of Rochester. The article is "Coups and Democracy," which is co-authored by Goemans and University of Mannheim political scientist Nikolay Marinov, appears in the current issue of theBritish Journal of Political Scienceand will be available forfree downloadthrough the end of October.]

*****

One of the less heralded consequences of the dissolution of the Soviet Union in the early 90s and the subsequent financial difficulties of newly independent Russia was that a major source of foreign aid to poor and developing countries more or less vanished overnight. In a recent article in the British Journal of Political Science, Coups and Democracy (available here) we show this may have promoted democracy.

In the 90s, a new international norm was promoted by the EU and laterby the US: in the aftermath of a coup, any new regime must quickly schedule and hold elections. Failure to do so will result in the denial or withholding of foreign aid. With no alternative aid sources, coup leaders in countries dependent on foreign aid were forced to comply. (Note the example of General Salou Djibo of Niger pictured above who scheduled and held elections after his coup in 2010, but not before he had secured immunity for himself and his fellow coup plotters.) Thus, as we show in the article, after the fall of the Soviet Union, elections were scheduled and held significantly faster after a coup than before. If they were not, foreign aid was indeed withheld.

This sets up a selection mechanism whereby we systematically no longer see some kinds of coups. Now comes the kind of clever twist that political scientists particularly enjoy. Think of the incentives to potential coup plotters: if they successfully execute a plot, they will have to schedule elections in which the winner will be the median voter. The unpleasant alternative is a lack of funds to pay the troops and keep the economy going. Any coup plotter with policies closer to the median voter than to the current ruler wont mind: elections will leave him or her better off than under the current leader. But if potential plotters prefer policies closer to those of the current ruler than those of the median voter, elections would leave them worse off after a coup. In anticipation of this sequence of events, such potential plotters may prefer not to launch a coup in the first place. As a result, we end up with fewer coups overall. And indeed, as expected, we did indeed find a structural break in the data in the number of coups after 1992. There are fewer coups overall, because there are fewer coups by extremists but there still are coups by plotters who launch coups that move a country closer to the median voter and closer to democracy.

Continue reading here:
Monkey Cage: A coup for democracy?

By KELVIN CHAN Associated Press

HONG KONG (AP) - Police warned Hong Kong pro-democracy activists that they have until Thursday to leave a sprawling protest camp which has blocked traffic in the Chinese financial hub for more than two months.

Authorities are set to move in after a court order authorized the removal of barricades, tents and other obstructions from the protesters' main camp in the downtown Admiralty district, setting the stage for a possible last showdown with activists demanding greater democracy.

Police spokesman Cheung Tak-keung urged protesters on Tuesday evening to start packing up their belongings because they won't have any time on Thursday. Workers are expected to carry out the clearance operation starting at 9 a.m. that day, said Paul Tse, a lawyer for the bus company that sought the injunction.

The court order, published in newspapers and posted by bailiffs Tuesday at the Admiralty site, authorizes court workers to request police assistance "where necessary." It covers three sections of the Admiralty site, but Cheung said that after officers assist in clearing those areas they will also remove obstructions from other blocked roads nearby.

He said police would also dismantle barricades from a second, smaller site in the Causeway Bay district not covered by the court order "at an appropriate time," without specifying when.

Referring to reports that some protesters plan to resist, Cheung said anyone who refuses to leave or obstructs officers will be arrested.

"We will take resolute action against anyone who attempts to block other roads or re-occupy roads that have been reopened," he said.

Some 7,000 police officers will be deployed for the operation, local broadcaster RTHK reported.

The student-led protesters had been occupying three protest sites to press their demands for greater democracy, but authorities shut down one in the rough-and-tumble Mong Kok neighborhood late last month under a separate court order. The aggressive police operation sparked several nights of violent clashes in the neighborhood's tight grid of streets, resulting in about 160 arrests.

Read the original:
Hong Kong democracy protest camp shutdown looms

Dec. 9, 2014: Pro-democracy protesters' tents are seen at the occupied area outside government headquarters in Hong Kong. Hong Kong authorities and activists are set for one last showdown after the publication Tuesday of a court order authorizing the removal of barricades and tents blocking the Asian financial hub's streets for more than two months.(AP)

A man walks past a barricade at the occupied area outside government headquarters in Hong Kong Tuesday, Dec. 9, 2014. Hong Kong authorities and activists are set for one last showdown after the publication Tuesday of a court order authorizing the removal of barricades and tents blocking the Asian financial hub's streets for more than two months. (AP Photo/Kin Cheung)(The Associated Press)

Barricades are set up by pro-democracy protester on a main road at the occupied area outside government headquarters in Hong Kong Tuesday, Dec. 9, 2014. Hong Kong authorities and activists are set for one last showdown after the publication Tuesday of a court order authorizing the removal of barricades and tents blocking the Asian financial hub's streets for more than two months. (AP Photo/Kin Cheung)(The Associated Press)

Pro-democracy protesters' tents are seen at the occupied area outside government headquarters in Hong Kong Tuesday, Dec. 9, 2014. Hong Kong authorities and activists are set for one last showdown after the publication Tuesday of a court order authorizing the removal of barricades and tents blocking the Asian financial hub's streets for more than two months. (AP Photo/Vincent Yu)(The Associated Press)

HONG KONG Police warned Hong Kong pro-democracy activists that they have until Thursday to leave a sprawling protest camp which has blocked traffic in the Chinese financial hub for more than two months before authorities clear it out.

Authorities are set to move in after a court order authorized the removal of barricades, tents and other obstructions from the protesters' main camp in the downtown Admiralty district, setting the stage for a possible last showdown with activists demanding greater democracy.

Police spokesman Cheung Tak-keung urged protesters on Tuesday evening to start packing up their belongings because they won't have any time on Thursday. Workers are expected to carry out the clearance operation starting at 9 a.m. that day, said Paul Tse, a lawyer for the bus company that sought the injunction.

The court order, published in newspapers and posted by bailiffs Tuesday at the Admiralty site, authorizes court workers to request police assistance "where necessary." It covers three sections of the Admiralty site, but Cheung said that after officers assist in clearing those areas they will also remove obstructions from other blocked roads nearby.

He said police would also dismantle barricades from a second, smaller site in the Causeway Bay district not covered by the court order "at an appropriate time," without specifying when.

Referring to reports that some protesters plan to resist, Cheung said anyone who refuses to leave or obstructs officers will be arrested.

See the original post here:
Hong Kong protest camp to be cleared out Thursday

HONG KONG: Police warned Hong Kong pro-democracy activists that they have until Thursday to leave a sprawling protest camp which has blocked traffic in the Chinese financial hub for more than two months.

Authorities are set to move in after a court order authorized the removal of barricades, tents and other obstructions from the protesters' main camp in the downtown Admiralty district, setting the stage for a possible last showdown with activists demanding greater democracy.

Police spokesman Cheung Tak-keung urged protesters on Tuesday evening to start packing up their belongings because they won't have any time on Thursday. Workers are expected to carry out the clearance operation starting at 9 a.m. that day, said Paul Tse, a lawyer for the bus company that sought the injunction.

The court order, published in newspapers and posted by bailiffs Tuesday at the Admiralty site, authorizes court workers to request police assistance ``where necessary.'' It covers three sections of the Admiralty site, but Cheung said that after officers assist in clearing those areas they will also remove obstructions from other blocked roads nearby.

He said police would also dismantle barricades from a second, smaller site in the Causeway Bay district not covered by the court order ``at an appropriate time,'' without specifying when.

Referring to reports that some protesters plan to resist, Cheung said anyone who refuses to leave or obstructs officers will be arrested.

``We will take resolute action against anyone who attempts to block other roads or re-occupy roads that have been reopened,'' he said.

Some 7,000 police officers will be deployed for the operation, local broadcaster RTHK reported.

The student-led protesters had been occupying three protest sites to press their demands for greater democracy, but authorities shut down one in the rough-and-tumble Mong Kok neighborhood late last month under a separate court order. The aggressive police operation sparked several nights of violent clashes in the neighborhood's tight grid of streets, resulting in about 160 arrests.

The semiautonomous Chinese city's Beijing-backed leader, Leung Chun-ying, said officers would use ``minimum force'' in assisting court workers to shut the site down. Earlier this week he said they were expected to encounter ``fierce resistance.''

Read more:
Hong Kong police: Protest camp shutdown on Thursday