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Ben Johnson, host of the Perpetual Chess Podcast

Many years agoat Masterman High School in Philadelphia, I would often play second board behind IM Greg Shahade, so when he was too lazy busy to carry on his handicapping tradition and preview the second half of the FIDE Candidates Tournament, it was only natural that I pick up the baton.

And while I cannot match Gregs chess strength (or his physical strength, for that matter), we share a background of having once played poker for a living and, thus, in theory, we used to know something about assessing odds. So with the help of a few friends, I feel reasonably qualified to tackle the question we have been waiting more than a year to finally answer: What is likely to happen when FIDE resumes its Candidates Tournament on Monday, April 19?

We will discuss each of the participants, along with their odds of winning the tournament according to Unibet*, as well as the estimated tournament-win probabilities from a predictive analytics model created by accountant/stay at home dad/chess fan and creator of the insightful Chess by the Numbers blog, Tai Pruce-Zimmerman#. Here we go!

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photo Lennart Ootes

Nepo has been a frequent top-ten player who has ascended to No. 4 in the world in recent years. He would be a compelling challenger to Magnus, as he has a plus-score against him in classical chess and can hold his own in rapid tiebreaks. In fact, Magnus himself touts Ian as the favorite because 1) He is tied with the most points in first place, and 2) Vachier-Lagrave, the guy who he is tied with, plays Black an extra time. See, chess handicapping isnt so hard!

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photo Lennart Ootes

MVL hasnt been in peak form of late and, although GM Peter Svidler told me that momentum is overrated, no one that I polled favored the Frenchman to win the tournament. (To be fair, I didnt ask any French people!) The highest endorsement I found was from friendly English Grandmaster, author, and endgame technician extraordinaire Keith Arkell, who said:

If I could choose the winner, I would perhaps go for Maxime. However, I feel that I have been watching Giri and Nepo make the most progress as players over the lockdown year. And because Nepo is a point ahead of Giri, I think he is the most-likely winner and challenger to Magnus.

Despite some recent struggles, the friendly Frenchman obviously has a lot of people rooting for him, and MVL is fully capable of harnessing his famed"> calculation prowess to emerge as Magnus challenger.

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Caruana-Nepomniachtchi (photo Maria Emelianova)

The first thing you should know about Fabiano Caruana is that he is very good at chess No. 2 in the world, in fact. He has also proved that his nerves can handle the stress of chess biggest stage. Fabiano trails the leaders of this tournament by one point, but with White against MVL in the first game and a years worth of opening preparation to unveil he could quickly erase that lead.

He is also, of course, loved by the American-skewed handful of titled players that I polled. ChessDojos IM Kostya Kavutskiy tapped Fabi as the winner, mainly because he is rooting for him. WGM Tatev Abrahamyan is also on Team Fabi, but asked that we retroactively change her pick to whoever wins the tournament!

GM Jacob Aagaard, who will be continuing his excellent Candidates coverage for CLO beginning Monday, pulled the fewest punches. Jacob told me: I think Caruana will win. I do not believe in the stability of Nepomniachtchi, and MVL has always choked. Of the rest, Caruana is best placed to lead the pack.

There you have it, Fabi Nation.

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Anish Giri (photo Lennart Ootes)

Considering Giri has the same score as Caruana, the predictive models really dont fancy his chances! Chess Twitter stalwart Matt Fletcher, aka @WMILTTI, has built a model that has Giri with only 2% chancesto win! Though I think these models underrate Giri. He showed strong form when winning the online 2021 Magnus Invitational, and he backed it up by sharing first in an actual elite OTB event at 2021 Tata Steel. Anish might need to steal a game with Black, or hold serve while playing Black four times and then clean up with White, but all that is pretty doable for a player with his level of preparation.

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photo Maria Emelianova

With 4 games remaining as Black and one point behind the leaders, the beloved and wry Russian veteran faces a steep -- though not insurmountable -- climb. It turns out this isnt the only Candidates preview on the internet, and Magnus Carlsens head trainer, GM Peter Heine Nielsen, shared a brilliant insight over on Chess24.com: Peter pointed to an advantage that Grischuk is the only participant to draw each of his first seven games.

Having made all draws is not too bad. I understand that right now its not good for his tiebreak, but it means, whoever he beats he has a plus score against and will be ahead of him by tiebreaks, so he basically just has to beat the leaders in order to be first and to have a massive advantage over them. When you face Grischuk its an unpleasant game, because if you lose to him, hell overtake you and hell beat you on tiebreak as well.

Despite GM Grischuks immensely accomplished chess career, his untreated time-trouble addiction, and his lucrative side hustle as an accomplished poker professional, can give the impression that he could accomplish even more in chess. It would be great to see him do so, if only for more Grischuk"> press conferences.

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Wang Hao (photo Lennart Ootes)

Wang Hao somewhat surprisingly qualified for the Candidates by winning the FIDE Grand Swiss. Less surprisingly, he did not think FIDE should have staged the first half of the tournament amidst the onset of a global pandemic. Despite his laudable objection to the risks of staging the first half of the tournament, Wang Hao held his own over the board in the first half. He beat Ding Liren with Black in round 1 and arrived at the midway point with an even score. With 4 Whites remaining and a veneer of unpredictability, his chances should not be discounted.

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Ding Liren (photo Maria Emelianova)

Ah Ding, what could have been. The dynamic World No. 3 seemed to be the hipster pick to win the tournament prior to its first half. But he disappointed, perhaps thrown off by multiple quarantines and the surreal circumstances of the first half of the FIDE Candidates Tournament. Now, he will likely need a historic run to enter the winners circle. Before picking Fabiano, ChessDojos GM Jesse Kraai told me:

I think Ding is at the same level (of play) as Fabi, but he has less points! Dings first game is crucial, because if he can avenge his Black loss to Wang Hao with a win of his own, he will have a legitimate chance.

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Kirill Alekseenko (photo Lennart Ootes)

The youngest, lowest-rated participant managed five draws with two losses against the worlds stiffest competition. Now he, along with Svidler as his second, returns to Yekaterinaburg looking to learn a few things and raise his profile even higher. Alekseenko has been quiet during quarantine and is young enough that seeing him take another leap in chess strength would not be shocking. He is unlikely to win the tournament, but a landscape-altering upset or two is entirely possible for the young Russian GM.

When I messaged former FIDE World Champion GM Ruslan Ponomariov for his take on this tournament, he nodded to former World Champion Garry Kasparovs prediction prior to the first half of the Candidates:

(Caruana and Ding) are huge favorites, he said. You need a natural disaster for one of them not to win."

His point, of course, is that a healthy amount of modesty is required when venturing predictions. Ponomariov nonetheless did go on to say that he thinks Nepomniachtchi is the most-likely winner.

And I feel similarly. If making one pick, it seems silly to go against Nepo. But I will say that anything can happen with a mere seven games per participant, so I am optimistic about the chances of Grischuk, Giri and Wang Hao relative to the markets and models.

In any event, I am so excited for this next chapter of chess history to finally be written. Whoever you are rooting for, lets all hope for good health amongst the participants and tournament staff -- and for the drama to take place only on the chessboard!

* The Unibet odds have been converted from American style to percentages, then the substantial vigorish was removed and the numbers were rounded off, with the help of Benjamin Portheault. Due to rounding errors, the total Unibet percentages add up to 98%, but hey! At least we are close.

# Here is Tais brief explanation of how the model was created: "I use a Monte Carlo model to predict the tournament results, meaning I simulate the event thousands of times based on the players' ratings, and use those simulations to determine the odds of each possible result occurring."

(shout out to Teimour Radjabov as well, his good judgment deserved a better fate)

See the rest here:
Picking the Candidates, Again -- With Ben Johnson! | US Chess.org - uschess.org

When Radoslav Radovanovic walked through Hyde Park in Sydney's CBD nearly 30 years ago, he had an idea. He wanted a life-size chess set, just like the one in the park, to be installed in his local suburb of Liverpool.

With plans already in place to close Macquarie Street to traffic, a chess set was installed withinthe pavement of a newly renovated Macquarie Mall.

Liverpool City Library

"I told my son, who told the council, why don't we put a chess set here in the mall. So, the council made one for us,"Mr Radovanovic said.

"It was in the middle of the mall and we would gather there every day to play chess."

And while peak-hour at the chess table these days is 11am, those with other commitments are always welcome to turn up a little later.

"We come here every day, roughly 25 of us. Those with jobs, or more busy lives sometimes join us in the later afternoon."

Mr Radovanovic was born in Serbia and moved to Australia nearly 60 years ago.

Sharon Masige

He bought his first home in Cabramatta West but has visitedLiverpool nearly every day since his retirement.

Now in his 80s, he said spaces like the one on Macquarie Mall helped older members of the community socialise.

"We don't drink, we don't gamble, we're not troublemakers. We just need somewhere to pass the time. This way we can play some chess, go for a walk, talk to each other."

When Macquarie Mall was officially opened in the early `90s, not everyone was on board.

Alf Vella,a local councillor from1991 to1995,said some shop owners had been worried about the effectof removing traffic.

"A few shop owners complained in the beginning, but I think it's beaming now," said Mr Vella.

"And there will be more changes in the future to have it 'beautified' up even more."

Liverpool City Library

Liverpool Council Heritage OfficerThomas Wheelersaid Macquarie Mall had been part of a re-born trend sweeping Sydney's suburbs in the 1990s.

"It followed the same path as the birth of pedestrian malls in the 1970s," said Mr Wheeler.

"People wanted to reduce pollution, smoke, and bring back the old concept of a town centre, which harks back to medieval times."

Mr Wheeler said Parramatta and Penrith malls had receiveda similar renovation in the early 1990s.

"The pedestrian malls were transitory in the beginning, a place for business, shopping and walking through," he said.

"Now Macquarie Mall has become a place of congregation, where communities come together."

Mr Wheeler said the council was now focused on reviving Liverpool's nightlife to help make it a '23-hour city'.

"Currently most of the cafes help with daytime traffic and economy, so the next focal point is night activation," he said.

"An increase to hospitality offerings within the strip will come with new developments in the area."

Mr Radovanovic and his fellow chess club do not care so much aboutthe area's night-time economy.

Rather, they are hoping council brings back the youth tournaments from the 1990s.

"A long time ago, they used to organise tournaments here and we'd bring the kids," said Mr Radovanovic.

"And only the kids would play. We could only stand back and watch. I would like to see that happen again, for the younger generation to come back.

"Some of the children who played in those tournaments 20 years ago still stop by, but they're hardly children anymore."

See the article here:
Members of Liverpool's unofficial chess club still gathering in Macquarie Mall, 25 years on - ABC News

Almost five decades after becoming Asia's first grandmaster, the Philippines' Eugene Torre made history anew on April 20 after becoming the first Asian male to be inducted into in the World Chess Hall of Fame by the World Chess Federation (FIDE).

FIDE met virtually to induct Torre, along with Polish-Argentine GM Miguel Najdorf and Hungarian women's GM Judit Polgar, considered the best female woodpusher ever.

He became the second Asian ever to enter the Hall of Fame, two years after Chinese women's GM Xie Jun was conferred the honor.

"I am very proud as a Filipino. Since especially we became the first male Asian inductee. Being the first, this will stay forever with the Philippines," Torre told ESPN5.com in a phone interview.

"We are very proud that we started the popularity and the acceptance of chess not only in the country but the rest of Asia," he added.

A 22-year-old Torre made history in the 1974 Nice Olympiad in France by clinching the board 1 silver medal to become the continent's first grandmaster. He also holds the record for most Chess Olympiad appearances of 23 from 1970 to 2016.

In 1982 Torre and Lajos Portisch of Hungary topped the FIDE Inter-zonal Candidates Tournament held in Toluca, Mexico which qualified him for the World Chess Championship Candidates Matches. However, he lost to Portisch's compatriot Zoltan Ribli in the first round of a 10-match duel in Elicante, Spain.

He recalled during his first years in participating in international competitions, the Asians were not as good in the mental indoor sport compared to their American and European counterparts.

"Even India and China were not as good then. We used to beat India regularly, but eventually, they found an appreciation for chess. We are happy for them because we played a role in helping propagate the sport to Asia," mentioned Torre.

The 69-year-old was informed a few months ago by Toti Abundo, member of the FIDE Historical Committee. There was supposed to be a grand induction ceremony in the United States, but the COVID-19 pandemic forced to change plans.

At present, there are 37 inductees in the World Chess Hall of Fame, with the first entrants being Jose Raul Capablanca of Cuba, Bobby Fischer and Paul Morphy of the U.S., Emmanuel Lasker of Germany, and Wilhem Steinitz of Austria in 2001. The list has since expanded to accommodate the likes of Anatoly Karpov, Garry Kasparov, Boris Spassky, and Mikhail Tal.

Torre, who had a peak FIDE rating of 2580 in 1983 and was once ranked as high as 17th in the world rankings, continues to display his skills in the recently-established Professional Chess Association of the Philippines, where he was drafted first overall by the Rizal Towers in December 2020.

Read this article:
Chess legend Eugene Torre 'very proud as a Filipino' after Hall of Fame induction - ESPN Philippines

Anish Giri was back into the title-race after a clinical victory over Wang Hao for a share of the second spot behind leader Ian Nepomniachtchi in the ninth round of Candidates chess tournament in Yekaterinburg in Russia, on Tuesday.

The victory for Giri, the only winner of the day, was described by World champion Magnus Carlsen as a very, very, very good game.

READ| Caruana's stunning win marks resumption of Candidates Tournament

Playing white, Giri used a great new idea in the opening phase and then tightened the noose around his Chinese rival who struggled with his time-management during this 38-move encounter.

Of the three drawn games, joint-second Maxime Vachier-Lagrave escaped with an 88-move draw against Ding Liren.

Nine-round results: Alexander Grischuk (Rus, 4) drew with Ian Nepomniachtchi (Rus, 5.5); Anish Giri (Ned, 5) bt Wang Hao (Chn, 4); Kirill Alekseenko (Rus, 4) drew with Fabiano Caruana (USA, 5); Ding Liren (Chn, 3.5) drew with Maxime Vachier-Lagrave (Fra, 5).

View original post here:
Candidates Chess Tournament: Victorious Anish Giri back in the hunt - Sportstar

Ratings Gap

For each year between 19722000, the average USCF rating of the overall U.S. Championship was always more than 300 points greater than the average rating of the U.S. Womens Championship.

Although the rating differences are already apparent, Ashley Yan conducted an independent samples t-test to compare the means. The results confirmed a statistically significant difference between the average ratings of overall U.S. Championship participants and U.S. Womens Championship participants. Since the resulting p-value was much less than 0.05, which is the standard threshold for statistical significance, its highly likely that the average rating differences are influenced by an external factor.

Given these results, one might conclude that there is a significant difference in skill between men and women. But other explanations are possible.

Participation Hypothesis

We hypothesize that the difference in ratings between the U.S. Womens Championship and the overall U.S. Championship is expected due to the small numbers of girls and women with USCF memberships. This conclusion remains valid under two assumptions: that women made up 5% of the total USCF membership, and the rating distribution for all female USCF members was relatively the same as the rating distribution for all male USCF members.

Due to the lack of data available to us, the exact percentage of female USCF members between 19722000 remains unknown, and the rating distributions based on gender are also unknown. Given that 5% of USCF players were girls or women in April 2000, as mentioned in part one, one might speculate that the percentage was even lower in the years before 2000. Indeed, for the datapoint of 1993, the percentage was lower (4.65%). Further data points may or may not be available from the US Chess. Requesting a data search would require staff hours and thus an outside funding source to pay for US Chess staff time.

If a funded study were conducted, and data points of girls/women in various years from 1972 to 1993 were uncovered (since we already have the 1993 and 2000 data points), these additional data points might demonstrate a substantial participation gap between men and women.

In addition, assuming the rating distributions for men and women were relatively equal, it is expected that the highest ratings for men would be higher than those for women. More specifically, when comparing two distributions with the same average value and variability, the distribution with the larger sample size will logically have greater representation on both ends of the distribution curve.

Extreme Values

When this logic is applied to the U.S. Championships rating differences, the difference between the average ratings of the overall and womens championships would be expected due to a smaller sample size of total female USCF members. The participants in both championships have ratings in the top percentile for their corresponding gender, so the championships ratings are the highest or most extreme values in the rating distributions of all USCF players. Since there are substantially more male USCF players than female, the male USCF player distribution would not only have a greater magnitude of players in the top percentile, but the highest ratings would also be greater than those for female USCF players. Extreme values explain why the participants in the overall U.S. Championships generally have much higher ratings than those in the U.S. Womens Championships.

Chess Life magazine, March 1996 (from theChess Life and Chess Review Archives)

Graphs and Conclusion

Based on the graph illustrating the average ratings of the U.S. Championships and U.S. Womens Championships, the rating difference has generally decreased over 19722000. Due to the proportion of female USCF members possibly increasing over this period, this trend is statistically expected: The extreme values of the two distributions become more similar as the distributions size difference decreases. That the proportion of female USCF members increased between 19722000, though, is another assumption we make as we do not currently have much gender-based data for those years.

We conclude that the gender participation gap influences the average rating differences between the U.S. Championship players and the U.S. Womens Championship players, and, therefore, the difference would be expected. However, our conclusions and the insight we can draw from the given data are limited. There may or may not be available rating distributions from 19722000, and overall USCF membership during those years perhaps did not include sufficiently accurate gender coding.

Future Research

In 2001, there was no womens tournament. In 2004, there was a seven-player U.S. Womens Championship but no corresponding U.S. Championship. That is, the 2004 U.S. Championship was named the 2005 championship for legal reasons and was a mixed-gender Swiss system. In 2002 (56 players), 2003 (58 players), 2005 (64 players), and 2006 (two 32-player Swiss systems), the women and men played in combined U.S. championships.

The comparison chart found in part one could resume in 2007, with the caution that, for several of those years, the U.S. championships averages would be depressed due to large numbers of players competing in the U.S. Championships.

Starting in 2014, both the U.S. Womens Championship and the U.S. Championship were round robins of smaller sizes. Comparisons would again be possible, as they were for 19722000, the focus of this two-part series. A future article could analyze those more recent years, 20142020, when the percentage of US Chess female members is above 10%, to see if the rating gap is closing between the U.S. Womens and the U.S. Championship fields. Also possible is a second historical article, about the years 1950 to 1972 and the average ratings for those years for the U.S. Womens and U.S. Championships.

The ratings gap and gender: Analyzing U.S. Chess Championships (Part I)

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The ratings gap and gender: Analyzing U.S. Chess Championships (Part II) - Chessbase News