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Jean-Luc Ichard

Given the run-up in AI-related valuations, separating the real deal from companies that are merely AI wannabes is critical. The first few things to consider are, will this company see revenue from AI and, if so, how soon.

Pictured Above: Some AI-related cloud stocks have surged in valuation by 4X in the matter of a few months (YCharts)

Although many AI stocks will not report enough AI revenue to survive the fierce, competitive battle the tech industry faces due to AI/ML, Wall Street investors can reasonably assume that Microsoft will be a leader in this space. Microsoft's AI platform is rather insulated from widespread competition outside of Google Cloud and AWS, and the company's software assets are particularly well suited for AI advancements, such as Office 365.

In April 2022, our firm re-entered Microsoft with a note to our premium research members about the company's dominance in AI before Chat-GPT3 was released. We repeated this in October 2022 when we called Microsoft a "sleeping AI giant":

Microsoft is a sleeping AI/ML giant. Google gets a lot of attention here yet I think they are equally prepared to serve this market [] To help Microsoft rival Google, the company has been investing in OpenAI, which is a large R&D operation that is breaking ground with AI algorithms that help computers to create images from text, reduce the amount of code that developers need to write, and to also help robotics think and act like humans, among other things [] DALL-E is a "12-billion parameter" version of GPT-3 that creates images from text. The partnership with Microsoft will bring DALL-E to apps and services, including the Designer app and Image Creator tool in Bing and Microsoft Edge - this was announced earlier this month at Ignite."

Analysts have been raising their price targets to the high $300s with an Evercore analyst raising his price target to $400 stating:

The infusion of AI across Microsoft's product portfolio represents a potential $100 billion incremental revenue uplift in 2027.

To provide some context, Azure and Office 365 helped Microsoft add almost $100 billion in revenue over the past four years. It increased from $110 billion to $198 billion in revenue. The stock appreciated 180% over that time frame. At the time, the market did not comprehend the revenue potential in these two businesses. We believe that history will repeat itself and the market is underestimating the impact AI will have on MSFT's future sales growth across its business lines.

However, valuation poses a risk to Microsoft's current stock price, and as outlined below, our firm prefers to wait before we add again to our position.

The OpenAI opportunity extends beyond Microsoft's installed base, which is an important change to Microsoft's market position. This is because OpenAI APIs run on Azure even if the customer isn't directly an Azure customer. Management commented on this in the earnings call:

Second, even Azure OpenAI API customers are all new, and the workload conversations, whether it's B2C conversations in financial services or drug discovery on another side, these are all new workloads that we really were not in the game in the past, whereas we now are."

One market that gets overlooked in terms of its AI impact is the Federal Government. It is currently undergoing a major shift into the cloud. In a blog post, the company CTO Bill Chappell wrote:

Microsoft continues to develop and advance cloud services to meet the full spectrum of government needs while complying with United States regulatory standards for classification and security. The latest of these tools, generative AI capabilities through Microsoft Azure OpenAI Service, can help government agencies improve efficiency, enhance productivity, and unlock new insights from their data. Many agencies require a higher level of security given the sensitivity of government data. Microsoft Azure Government provides the stringent security and compliance standards they need to meet government requirements for sensitive data.

Many years ago, I wrote about the Pentagon contract and why Microsoft would be a front-runner when it was widely reported AWS was the sole Big 3 contender for the contract. This analysis pointed toward the long-standing history Microsoft has in being favored by government entities.

The company introduced Microsoft 365 Copilot last month. It is the productivity tool that combines large language models (LLMs) with the data in Microsoft Graph and Microsoft 365 apps. The use cases of Copilot in Word include giving the users the first draft while saving the time on sourcing, writing, and editing the content. Similarly, Copilot in PowerPoint will help to create presentations based on previous content. Copilot in Excel can analyze trends from the data, create charts, and helps to make informative decisions.

To have a suite of productivity products that can see an immediate impact from AI-related R&D is a large part of the $100 billion that Microsoft can potentially add to the top line by 2027.

Another important driver is Microsoft's close partnerships with many of the telecom and data centers around world which will further cement its strong position in edge computing.

In February, Microsoft announced it had previewed two AI-powered services that are designed to manage telecom networks. Jason Zander, executive vice president of strategic missions and technologies at Microsoft said,

What we're doing is taking our native cloud work and making it specific to this telecom operator network space. I think a really great example of that is all the AI ops work that we are introducing into the system.

In the most recent quarter, Microsoft announced that the new AI-powered Bing and Edge has seen a positive response. The company crossed 100 million daily active users of Bing. This is how Microsoft described the early impact of ChatGPT:

Of the millions of active users of the new Bing preview, it's great to see that roughly one third are new to Bing. We see this appeal of the new Bing as a validation of our view that search is due for a reinvention and of the unique value proposition of combining Search + Answers + Chat + Creation in one experience.

Notably, Microsoft Bing has 3% market share and for every additional 1%, Microsoft will make an additional $2 billion.

Microsoft's cybersecurity segment reports more than $15 billion in revenue. The company was also the only Big 3 cloud vendor to not only build a multi-cloud product but also multi-cloud security. Today Microsoft's cybersecurity sales dwarf the revenue of many cybersecurity best-of-breed products combined.

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In the spring of 2022, I wrote about how reducing cloud costs was going to be a key trend in 2022 and beyond. We believed that Microsoft was uniquely positioned to benefit from this trend as it aggregates cloud services to help drive down costs. This is especially attractive for the Fortune 500 whereas startups, SMBs and mid-sized enterprises are likely to seek out and manage a larger portfolio of cloud services from various vendors.

Among the Big 3, Microsoft dominates the Fortune 500 with 95% running on Azure. Retaining the Fortune 500 in the migration to the cloud was accomplished through hybrid computing where Microsoft was first-to-market on serving a mix of on-premise, private and public clouds for their large enterprise customers. As the leader in on-premise systems, Microsoft was perfectly positioned to win with hybrid architectures. The company took this a step further and undercut other services on prices across its suite of software and platforms to win aggregate, long-term contracts.

Microsoft business model is low risk compared to many other AI stocks. However, there is certainly risk in the company's valuation. The risk is compounded when market exuberance front runs a trend and overshoots the mark of what a company can realistically report in the coming years. Microsoft's valuation is high relative to its 5-year median. If you look at the 5-year median prior to the current run-up, the stock has a historic valuation of 9x PS Ratio and is currently trading at a 12x PS Ratio. Similarly, the 5-year median PE Ratio at the start of the year was 25 and the stock is currently trading at 36.

YCharts

AI will be a constantly evolving space and while many investors are rushing in at overstretched valuations, we prefer to be patient. Over time, we agree with the analyst that Microsoft's competitive moat has positioned it to monetize the AI opportunity, much like with Azure and Microsoft 360, across its business lines so that its revenue will increase by $100B in the medium-term.

Microsoft is a real-deal AI stock and the increase in valuation has clearly factored in some of this. However, our updated sum-of-the parts analysis indicates there is still upside. Our current bull case price target is $440. As the story unfolds over the next few quarters, we see additional upside. However, in light of the strong rally from the Jan 2023 lows, we believe incorporating technical analysis to attempt to get the stock lower is important in determining optimal entry levels. In other words, the risk the stock sells off is much higher than usual right now. Sure, the stock price could continue to climb higher, but the world's best investors favor being patient and buying when the market is in a state of fear rather than a state of greed. When we do add to our key positions, we issue real-time trade alerts.

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Microsoft - AI Will Help Drive $100 Billion In Revenue By 2027 ... - Seeking Alpha

The arrival of AI in the film industry has been a topic of debate in recent months and Christopher Nolan joins the discussion. From using ChatGPT to write an episode of South Park, applying artificial intelligence to improve dialogues on Amazon Prime Video, and studios considering finalizing scripts using these new tools amid writers' strike, AIs are here to stay and it is only a matter of time before they become a tool for everyday use.

After popular directors like Joe Russo or acclaimed actors like Tom Hanks expressed their opinion regarding how AI will master the future of filmmaking, the man behind Oppenheimer shares his opinion on the matter, although he does not seem so concerned about the arrival of new technologies in the industry, but ready to use them in order to improve his work (via Wired):

The whole machine learning as applied to deepfake technology, that's an extraordinary step forward in visual effects and in what you could do with audio. There will be wonderful things that will come out, longer term, in terms of environments, in terms of building a doorway or a window, in terms of pooling the massive data of what things look like, and how light reacts to materials. Those things are going to be enormously powerful tools. I'm, you know, very much the old analog fusty filmmaker. I shoot on film. And I try to give the actors a complete reality around it. My position on technology as far as it relates to my work is that I want to use technology for what it's best for. Like if we do a stunt, a hazardous stunt. You could do it with much more visible wires, and then you just paint out the wires. Things like that.

As Nolan implies, its not about the AI, but how people use it. These technologies can definitely be a helping hand when it comes to visual effects, but as any tool can get out of hand too. Oppenheimers story is in fact a clear example of how technology can be both an improvement or a lethal weapon.

Related: Oppenheimer Biographer Reacts to Christopher Nolans Movie

An AI-dominated future may not be devastating for the director, but it looks like his new movie is. During his interview with Wired, Nolan confessed that those who have already seen Oppenheimer have had a shocking reaction to the film:

Some people leave the movie absolutely devastated. They can't speak. I mean, there's an element of fear that's there in the history and there in the underpinnings. But the love of the characters, the love of the relationships, is as strong as I've ever done. Oppenheimer's story is all impossible questions. Impossible ethical dilemmas, paradox. There are no easy answers in his story. There are just difficult questions, and that's what makes the story so compelling. I think we were able to find a lot of things to be optimistic about in the film, genuinely, but there's this sort of overriding bigger question that hangs over it. It felt essential that there be questions at the end that you leave rattling in people's brains, and prompting discussion.

Oppenheimer follows the story of one of the most complex and controversial personalities from the 20th Century, Robert J. Oppenheimer, father of the atomic bomb. The movie stars Cillian Murphy, Emily Blunt, Robert Downey Jr, Matt Damon, Rami Malek, Tom Conti, and many other big stars.

Originally posted here:

Christopher Nolan Explains How AI Could Actually Improve ... - MovieWeb

Hello! Welcome back to On Tech: A.I., a pop-up newsletter that teaches you about artificial intelligence, how it works and how to use it.

In last weeks newsletter, I shared the golden prompts for getting the most helpful answers from chatbots like ChatGPT, Bing and Bard. Now that youre familiar with the general principle of building a relationship with A.I. the more specific and detailed instructions you give, the better results youll get lets move on to a slightly different realm.

Much of the hype and fears around generative A.I. has been about text. But there have also been rapid and dramatic developments in systems that can generate images. In many cases, these share a similar structure to text-based generative A.I., but they can also be much weirder and lend themselves to some very fun creative pursuits.

Image generators are trained on billions of images, which enable them to produce new creations that were once the sole dominion of painters and other artists. Sometimes experts cant tell the difference between A.I.-created images and actual photographs (a circumstance that has fueled dangerous misinformation campaigns in addition to fun creations). And these tools are already changing the way that creative professionals do their jobs.

Compared to products like ChatGPT, image generating A.I. tools are not as well developed. They require jumping through a few more hoops, and may cost a bit of money. But if youre interested in learning the ropes theres no better time to start.

Last week, Adobe added a generative A.I. feature into a beta version of Photoshop, its iconic graphics software, and creators on social networks like TikTok and Instagram have been buzzing about it ever since.

I have a fair amount of experience with Photoshop. When I tested the new feature, called generative fill, I was impressed with how quickly and competently the A.I. carried out tasks that would have taken me at least an hour to do on my own. In less than five minutes and with only a few clicks, I used the feature to remove objects, add objects and swap backgrounds.

(To experiment with these tools yourself, start by signing up for a free trial of Adobe Creative Suite. Then, install the new Adobe Photoshop beta, which includes generative fill.)

Once you have Photoshop beta installed, import a photo and try these tricks:

To change a background, click the object selection icon (it has an arrow pointed at a box), then under the Select menu, click inverse to select the background. Next click the generative fill box and type in a prompt or leave it blank to let Photoshop come up with a new background concept for you.

I used these steps to edit a photo of my corgi, Max. I typed kennel for the prompt, and clicked generate" to replace the background. Heres the before (left) and after.

Photo editors at The New York Times do not enhance or alter photos, or generate images using artificial intelligence. But my first thought after testing generative fill was that photo editors working in other contexts, like marketing, could be soon out of work. When I shared this theory with Adobes chief technology officer, Ely Greenfield, he said that it might make photo editing more accessible, but he was optimistic that humans would still be needed.

I can make really pretty images with it, but frankly, I still make boring images, he said. When I look at the content that artists create when you put this in their hands versus what I create, their stuff is so much more interesting because they know how to tell a story.

I confess that what Ive done with generative fill is far less exciting than what others have been posting on social media. Lorenzo Green, who tweets about A.I., posted a collage of famous album covers, including Michael Jacksons Thriller and Adeles 21 that were expanded with generative fill. The results were quite entertaining.

(One note: If installing Photoshop feels daunting, a quicker way to test Adobes A.I. is to visit the Adobe Firefly website. There, you can open the generative fill tool, upload an image and click the add tool to trace around a subject, such as a dog. Then click background and type in a prompt like beach.)

Tools like DALL-E and Midjourney can create entirely new images in seconds. They work similarly to chatbots: You type in a text prompt the more specific, the better.

To write a quality prompt, start with the medium youd like to emulate, followed by the subject and any extra details. For example, typing a photograph of a cat wearing a sweater in a brightly lit room in the DALL-E prompt box will generate something like this:

DALL-E, which is owned by Open AI, the maker of ChatGPT, was one of the first widely available A.I. image generators that was simple for people to use. For $15, you get 115 credits; one credit can be used to generate a set of four images.

Midjourney, another popular image generator, is a work in progress, so the user experience is not as polished. The service costs $10 a month, and entering prompts can be a little more complicated, because it requires joining a separate messaging app, Discord. Nonetheless, the project can create high-quality, realistic images.

To use it, join Discord and then request an invitation to the Midjourney server. After joining the server, inside the chat box, type /imagine followed by a prompt. I typed /imagine a manga cover of a corgi in a ninja turtle costume and generated a set of convincing images:

Though its fine to type in a basic request, some have found obscure prompts that generated exceptional results (Beebom, a tech blog, has a list of examples). At Columbia University, Lance Weiler is teaching students how to leverage A.I., including Midjourney, to produce artwork.

Whichever tool you use, bear in mind that the onus is on you to use this tech responsibly. Technologists warn that image generators can increase the spread of deepfakes and misinformation. But the tools can also be used in positive and constructive ways, like making family photos look better and brainstorming artistic concepts.

Next week, Ill share some tips on how to use A.I. to speed up aspects of office jobs, such as drafting talking points and generating presentation slides.

In case youre wondering, the delightfully demented image at the top of this newsletter was created by a human the illustrator Charles Desmarais not by A.I.

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How to Use A.I. to Edit and Generate Stunning Photos - The New York Times

Director Wes Anderson's resume of wildly original and uniquely cinematic fare has spawned a fad of fan-made AI trailers.

These amateur works target the quirky filmmaker's recognizable style as seen in movies like "Rushmore," "The Royal Tenenbaums," "The Life Aquatic With Steve Zissou," "Isle of Dogs," "Moonrise Kingdom," "The Grand Budapest Hotel" and his new sci-fi flick, "Asteroid City."

Fresh off of their "Star Wars: The Galactic Menagerie" parody video cleverly employing cutting-edge AI tools, the creative folks at the YouTube channel Curious Refuge have turned their attention to director James Cameron's blockbuster film "Avatar," and the results offer a sly lampoon of Anderson's trademark visual trickery, brash color palette, singular wit and symmetrical camera framing.

This latest alt-history teaser presents a timeline in which Anderson helmed "The Peculiar Pandora Expedition: An Avatar Story," a madcap sci-fi odyssey to that lush tropical moon packed with an eccentric ensemble cast of Anderson regulars like Bill Murray, Timothe Chalamet, Adrien Brody, Tilda Swinton, Luke Wilson, Owen Wilson, Angelica Huston, Gwyneth Paltrow, Jason Schwartzman and Willem Dafoe.

Related: 1st 'Asteroid City' trailer reveals Wes Anderson's take on a space-age alien encounter

Here's the creators' official description:

Embark on a captivating journey to the enchanting world of Pandora, reimagined through the unique and imaginative lens of Wes Anderson in "The Peculiar Pandora Expedition." This extraordinary fan-made trailer offers a fresh perspective on James Cameron's epic masterpiece, blending Anderson's distinctive style with the awe-inspiring landscapes and extraordinary creatures of Pandora.

Follow Jake Sully, a former Marine, as he ventures into this mesmerizing land alongside the strong-willed Neytiri. Together, they discover the peculiar wonders, vibrant colors, and extraterrestrial flirtations that define Pandora. With Anderson's keen eye for detail and storytelling, he brings a human touch to this eccentric world, giving us a fresh and captivating take on the Na'vi and their mystical environment.

Experience the breathtaking beauty of Pandora, from its majestic floating mountains to its lush and diverse flora. Marvel at the unique creatures that inhabit this world, as Jake's journey uncovers secrets and challenges him to choose between his own kind and the people he has come to love.

"The Peculiar Pandora Expedition" is a testament to Anderson's visionary mind and meticulous craftsmanship, delivering an adventure filled with passion, vibrant colors, and thought-provoking themes. Join us as we celebrate the magic of imagination and the power of cinematic storytelling.

Other AI-spawned homage videos still making the cyberspace rounds are trailers for supposed Wes Anderson versions of "The Lord of the Rings," "The Hunger Games," "The Shining," "Gremlins" and "Harry Potter."

This newest "Avatar" creation might be the most esoteric of the whole bunch. But the trend is getting a bit repetitious and long in the tooth, which could be precisely what these hyped digital art offerings are attempting to point out.

Cameron's second "Avatar" film, "Avatar: The Way of Water," splashes onto Disney+ and Max beginning on Wednesday (June 7).

Today's best Disney+ and Disney+ Bundle deals

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James Cameron's 'Avatar' scores wacky new Wes Anderson ... - Space.com

Grimes used AI to clone her voice. We cloned the voice of a Planet Money host. : Planet Money In Part 1 of this series, AI proved that it could use real research and real interviews to write an original script for an episode of Planet Money.

Our next task was to teach the computer how to sound like us. How to read that script aloud like a Planet Money host.

On today's show, we explore the world of AI-generated voices, which have become so lifelike in recent years that they can credibly imitate specific people. To test the limits of the technology, we attempt to create our own synthetic voice by training a computer on recordings of former Planet Money host Robert Smith. Then we introduce synthetic Robert to his very human namesake.

There are a lot of ethical, and economic, questions raised by a technology that can duplicate anyone's voice. To help us make sense of it all, we seek the advice of an artist who has embraced AI voice clones: the musician Grimes.

(This is part two of a three-part series. For part one of our series, click here)

This episode was produced by Emma Peaslee and Willa Rubin, with help from Sam Yellowhorse Kesler. It was edited by Keith Romer and fact-checked by Sierra Juarez. Engineering by James Willetts. Jess Jiang is our acting executive producer.

We built a Planet Money AI chat bot. Help us test it out: Planetmoneybot.com.

Help support Planet Money and get bonus episodes by subscribing to Planet Money+ in Apple Podcasts or at plus.npr.org/planetmoney.

Keystone Features/Getty Images

In Part 1 of this series, AI proved that it could use real research and real interviews to write an original script for an episode of Planet Money.

Our next task was to teach the computer how to sound like us. How to read that script aloud like a Planet Money host.

On today's show, we explore the world of AI-generated voices, which have become so lifelike in recent years that they can credibly imitate specific people. To test the limits of the technology, we attempt to create our own synthetic voice by training a computer on recordings of former Planet Money host Robert Smith. Then we introduce synthetic Robert to his very human namesake.

There are a lot of ethical, and economic, questions raised by a technology that can duplicate anyone's voice. To help us make sense of it all, we seek the advice of an artist who has embraced AI voice clones: the musician Grimes.

(This is part two of a three-part series. For part one of our series, click here)

This episode was produced by Emma Peaslee and Willa Rubin, with help from Sam Yellowhorse Kesler. It was edited by Keith Romer and fact-checked by Sierra Juarez. Engineering by James Willetts. Jess Jiang is our acting executive producer.

We built a Planet Money AI chat bot. Help us test it out: Planetmoneybot.com.

Help support Planet Money and get bonus episodes by subscribing to Planet Money+ in Apple Podcasts or at plus.npr.org/planetmoney.

Always free at these links: Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts, NPR One or anywhere you get podcasts.

Find more Planet Money: Facebook / Instagram / TikTok / Our weekly Newsletter.

Music: "Hi-Tech Expert," "Lemons and Limes," and "Synergy in Numbers."

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Grimes used AI to clone her own voice. We cloned the voice of a ... - NPR