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EXCLUSIVE: Entrepreneurs and co-founders of WiFi Money Chris Frederick and Alex Moeller are working with conservative businesses to "beat censorship" on social media platforms, and to ensure they can amplify and monetize their products in an ever-evolving digital world.

Frederick and Moeller co-founded WiFi Money at the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic, as traditional businesses began to close due to COVID-19 lockdowns.

"The reason we started WiFi Money was because we started to see a shift in what was happeningnot only in the business world, but in the world in general," Moeller, the president of WiFi Money told FOX Business. "All of these people were struggling and out of jobs, and we thought, we need to find a way to really help people make money in the online world."

SMALL BUSINESS MUST TAP INTO TECH FOR LONG-TERM SUCCESS: VERIZON BUSINESS MARKETS PRESIDENT

Frederick, the CEO of WiFi Money, and a professional soccer player, told FOX Business that they have worked with more than 8,700 businesses since the inception of WiFi Money in 2020.

WiFi Money works with businesses to amplify their footprint on social media platforms. (WiFi Money)

Frederick explained that WiFi Money works with businesses to monetize at a "higher level by amplifying their services online."

"Through collaboration, through influence and public figures, we help them expose what they have offline to the online world," Frederick told FOX Business. "We help small businesses amplify their products and services to reach unlimited peoplethere is no ceiling."

WiFi Money typically works with businesses on social media platforms like Instagram and YouTube. However, Frederick said that some of those businesses have complained about Big Tech censorship.

MUSK SAYS TRUMP'S TRUTH SOCIAL 'EXISTS BECAUSE TWITTER CENSORED FREE SPEECH'

"I am definitely against censorship. I do not agree with it. I dont think it should be something that is allowed, and, essentially, what we do specifically with our businesses is two things: we remind the businesses that unless their business is in politics, they need to remember that their social media is 100% business, not personal," Moeller explained. "A lot of people, where they make mistakes, is they treat their business page as a personal page, and forget they are trying to build a business."

Moeller added, though, that these businesses "feel they are being censored."

WHY INSTAGRAM ASKS USERS TO CREATE SECOND ACCOUNTS

Frederick told FOX Business that the majority of businesses they work with are conservative businesses "seeking our help."

"We consider ourselves a conservative company," Frederick said. "I dont agree with Big Tech censorship and I think they have lost their markets. Social media is trying to control the reach of the people who made them who they are."

WiFi Money co-founders Chris Frederick (right) and Alex Moeller (left) started their company at the beginning of the COVID pandemic.

Frederick said that Big Tech companies "have lost the true markthe people and the reach of the people that were able to boost them to begin with."

"And now they are trying to limit them," Frederick said.

As for censorship, Frederick told Fox Business that "when you create interaction, it helps boost the algorithm."

"We have come up with ways to beat censorship and allow conservative businesses to be able to excel at a higher rate than they are now," Frederick said.

INSTAGRAM ROLLS BACK CHANGES AFTER KIM KARDASHIAN, KYLIE JENNER RIP APP

"Over the years, these platforms have made it harder and harder for average individuals to have any reach on the platform, unless you pay them money," Moeller explained. "We teach these businesses and individuals how to organically make money from heir social media.

Moeller added: "Communication is the most powerful tool."

"Our brand continues to explode and grow online," Lavallee said, adding that WiFi Money is "a big part of our recipe for success. (Apple / Fox News)

"I tell people that if you can build a successful relationship, then you can build a very successful business," Frederick said. "Essentially, they are the same thing."

One business that has used WiFi Money to grow online is "The Cake Girl"a custom bakery located in Tampa, Florida.

Kristina Lavallee opened her first brick and mortar location in June 2019, but when the COVID-19 pandemic began, "The Cake Girl" began shipping products nationwide.

"Chris and Alex, with their social media expertise, were able to continue to help our brand shine and elevate our presence all over the USA," Lavallee told Fox Business.

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"The Cake Girl" has more than 100,000 followers on Instagram, and is continuing to grow its online presence.

"Our brand continues to explode and grow online," Lavallee said, adding that WiFi Money is "a big part of our recipe for success."

Meanwhile, Moeller said WiFi Money helps businesses to understand what their goals are, and designs plans to execute those goals in an online space.

READ MORE FROM FOX BUSINESS

"Weve learned that one person cant talk to 1 million people," Frederick told FOX Business. "But one post can reach 1 million people."

"We are remaining true to what we teach, which is being present in the online space," Moeller said. "We dont know whats going to happen in the next year, or two years, or four years in this country, and we have just realized that the best way to do business is to do it online."

He added: "We have learned that doing business online is really the most effective way of making money right now."

Original post:
WiFi Money working with conservative businesses to 'beat censorship' on social media platforms - Fox Business

Conservative figures have accused YouTube of political censorship after the video hosting platform removed an interview with Donald Trump over "misinformation."

In July, the former president appeared on the Clay Travis & Buck Sexton Show, with the interview still available to watch on Facebook and on the podcast's website.

However, the interview has been pulled from YouTube, with a message on the site stating that the video had violated its community guidelines.

In a series of tweets, Travis said YouTube took down the video for "misinformation" without giving further details.

"How does censoring interviews with political leaders aid any voters or democracy itself? This is scary. When have political censors ever been on the right side of history?" Travis tweeted.

"Voters should be able to see everything that any political figure says in public in order to judge for themselves whether they want to support or not support that person. That's democracy itself. YouTube should be ashamed for censoring interviews with any political figure."

Replying to the tweets, Texas GOP Senator Ted Cruz wrote: "This...is...insane."

Trump attorney Jenna Ellis also described the video's removal as "ridiculous," with Sean Davis, co-founder of the conservative website The Federalist, tweeting: "These Big Tech tyrannies have become governments unto themselves. They don't need to be regulated or reined in. They need to be destroyed before they destroy our entire constitutional republic."

It's unclear what prompted YouTube to remove the video.

During the interview, Trump claimed that the 2020 Election was "rigged and stolen" a claim he has made in almost every interview and public appearance for nearly two years now.

As he persisted with the unsubstantiated claims, Trump even expressed concern that the video might be removed.

"No sitting president's ever even come close, and I lost. It was a rigged election," Trump said. "I hope they don't take you off the air, but if they do, please, just delete this, because I don't want to see you guys go off the air."

Elsewhere in the July interview, Trump also appears to suggest that there is a link between the rise of COVID cases in the U.S. and the fact the midterm elections would be taking place in a few months.

"I looked at a map yesterday. It's very interesting. We have an election coming up, and all of a sudden, they're saying COVID is all over the place," Trump said.

When Clay responds that the "midterm variant is certainly spreading," Trump replies: "May have to go to mail-in ballots. Crooked mail-in ballots."

Conspiracy theorists have previously attempted to make the claim that the coronavirus pandemic was a hoax so mail-in voting would have to be brought in for the 2020 Election, making it easier to rig it against Trump.

Conservatives have also frequently spoken out about how so-called "Big Tech" such as Google, Facebook or YouTube reportedly censor right-wing voices in favor of more liberal ones.

YouTube has been contacted for comment.

Original post:
Donald Trump Interview Removed by YouTube Decried as 'Insane' Censorship - Newsweek

Considering the show's strong bent towards social justice, it's not too surprising to find that one of the biggest inspirations for the series was the 1955 murder of Emmett Till. Till was aBlack 14-year-old boy who was"abducted, beaten, and shot" while visiting family in Mississippi, and whose killers both white were acquitted of all charges by an all-white jury. It was a tragedy that helped kickstart the civil rights movement, and also inspired Rod Serling to write a teleplay ("Noon on Doomsday") about the racism that led to such a miscarriage of justice unfolding.

Serling was expecting to deal with a lot of pushback and censorship with his script, but was still surprised by how extreme it all turned out to be. He later claimed the story was "gone over with a fine-tooth comb by 30 different people," and that by the time it aired it was basically unrecognizable from the story Serling was trying to tell. As Smithsonian Magazine put it, "Any hint of the South was removed from the plot; not even a Coca-Cola bottle could appear, lest viewers invoke the idea of the region."

The whole thing made Serling rethink his approach to social commentary, and soon after he had the idea for "The Twilight Zone," a show that was about apolitical sci-fi/fantasy concepts on the surface, but often used them as an avenue to explore more controversial ideas. It was through the "Twilight Zone" that Serling managed to get his Emmett Till-inspired story aired on TV: the aforementioned episode "I Am the Night," which is still one of the most memorable episodes of the series.

See the article here:
Censorship Was The Spark That Sent Rod Serling To The Twilight Zone - /Film

Russian President Vladimir Putin has declared that Russia is taking ownership of Ukraines Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, Europes largest.

Putin signed a decree Wednesday ordering the creation of a state company to manage the facility and said all workers now need Russian permission to work there. Russian troops have occupied the plant for months.

Ukraine condemned the illegal Russian takeover attempt and called on the West to impose sanctions on the Russian state nuclear operator, Rosatom, and for all countries to limit civilian nuclear cooperation with Russia.

Ukraines state nuclear operator, Energoatom, said it considers Putins decree worthless and absurd. It said the plant would continue to be operated by Energoatom as part of the Ukrainian energy system.

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KEY DEVELOPMENTS:

- Putin signs laws annexing 4 Ukrainian regions

- Ukraine nuclear workers recount abuse, threats from Russians

- Experts: Russia finding new ways to spread propaganda videos

EU agrees on price cap for Russian oil over Ukraine war

- Belarus opposition hopeful at Russian setbacks in Ukraine

- Ukraine links World Cup host bid to beating horrors of war

___

OTHER DEVELOPMENTS:

WARSAW, Poland - Ukraines prosecutor general says more evidence of torture and unnecessary killings is turning up in areas of the country previously held by Russian forces, including four bodies found in the Kharkiv region with bound or handcuffed hands.

Andriy Kostin also told The Associated Press on the sidelines of a security conference in Polands capital on Wednesday that he had just heard about the bodies. He said the dead people were believed to be civilians but an investigation was needed to determine that.

Two were found in a factory in the city Kupiansk with their hands bound behind their backs, while the other two were discovered handcuffed in the village of Novoplatonivka, according to Kostin.

During public remarks at the Warsaw Security Forum, Kostin said Ukrainian authorities also discovered six cars where 24 civilians were killed near Kupiansk. The victims included 13 children and a pregnant woman who were killed while trying to escape, he said, without specifying when the killings took place.

Kostin also said that Russias proclaimed annexation of four Ukrainian regions means nothing legally but only serves as evidence of Russias intentional policy in the crimes of aggression.

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MADRID, Spain - Leaders of Spain and Germany are meeting in northwestern Spain for a brief summit centering on Europes energy crisis and consequences of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Snchez, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and 15 ministers from their governments are attending the meeting Wednesday in the city of A Corua.

Germanys gas supplies have been cut by its main provider Russia and the country is interested in proposals to build a gas pipeline linking the Iberian peninsula to the rest of Europe. The two will also discuss European fiscal policies and possibly Germanys suggested European anti-missile defense shield.

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MOSCOW - Russian President Vladimir Putin says results of the referendums that Moscow held in four regions of Ukraine before annexing them are valid despite being described as a sham by the West and Kyiv.

The vote results are more than convincing, and it is absolutely transparent and not subject to any doubt, Putin said.

This is objective data on peoples mood, the Russian president said at an event dedicated to the Teachers Day. He added that he himself was pleasantly surprised by the outcome.

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KYIV, Ukraine - Ukrainian officials are reporting further strategic losses for Russia within the territories Moscow has illegally annexed following sham referendums.

Russian troops have started to withdraw from a southern Ukrainian city that was annexed along with the Kharson region though it administratively belongs to the neighboring Mykolaiv area, said Mykolaiv governor Vitaliy Kim on Wednesday.

Kim says officials are seeking to confirm that officers have left Snihurivka, but there are troops still remaining there. Earlier, a Russia-installed official, Yury Barbashov, admitted Ukrainian troops were advancing toward the city but claimed Russia was still in control.

Snihurivka, a city of 12,000, is a strategic railway hub in the Mykolaiv region. The Russians have seized the city in March and then annexed it together with the neighboring Kherson region.

In the eastern Luhansk region, the governor Serhiy Haidai said Wednesday that Ukrainian forces have retaken several localities in the region, which also is among the four illegally annexed by Moscow.

The de-occupation of the Luhansk region has begun, we can talk about it officially - several settlements have been liberated from the Russian army and the invaders, Haidai said in a video statement on Telegram.

The official did not name the recaptured places, but said that the retreating Russian forces are trying to mine everything as much as possible - roads, buildings, everything around.

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BRUSSELS - The head of the European Unions executive arm wants to introduce checks on key EU infrastructure, including energy, after the suspected sabotage of natural-gas pipelines in the Baltic Sea.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said Wednesday that the damage last week to the Nord Stream pipelines linking Russia and Germany has shown how vulnerable our energy infrastructure is.

She says that a comprehensive plan is needed to ensure the safety of key EU networks, including for data. Von der Leyen also says that satellite surveillance will be used to detect potential threats.

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KYIV, Ukraine - Residents of Ukraines capital of Kyiv have expressed anger and dismay that Russia declared annexations of parts of their country.

Sofia Moroz, 20, says she cant understand how all this is happening. Moroz adds its strange, there is sovereignty, there is a country.

There is a state, borders, ministries, she said. I cant understand why some people decided to change it. Why is it like that? For what?

Olha Sviatka, 19, from Kyiv, says its not logical and its not true. The land is not Russian, so they must not touch it.

A 38-year-old man from Kyiv who identified himself only by his first name, Oleh, says its my land.

They, Russians, need to be thrown out, he says. All of them.

Serhiy Lischuk, 26, agrees: Its our country and we will defend it, and our rights.

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KYIV, Ukraine - The head of Ukraines nuclear power company says he will take over managing the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, after its director was first kidnapped and then released by Russian forces who occupy the facility.

Petro Kotin, the head of Energoatom, said Wednesday he will be running the plant from the capital Kyiv. Ukrainian workers continue to operate the facility, which shut down its last operational reactor last month.

Zaporizhzhia is Europes biggest nuclear plant. Fighting close to the complex has sparked fears of leaks or incidents.

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WARSAW, Poland - Belarus opposition leader says she believes that Russian military setbacks in Ukraine could shake Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenkos hold on power.

Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya said at a security conference in Warsaw on Wednesday that it seems that Russia is about to lose this war, and that, if it does, it will no longer be able to prop up the Belarusian dictator.

Tsikhanouskaya fled to Lithuania after Russian ally Lukashenko claimed victory in August 2020 elections that were viewed in the West as fraudulent, and which many thought she won.

She told the Warsaw Security Forum that hundreds of Belarusian volunteers have supported Ukrainians in their recent liberation of Ukrainian territory, and that 15 have died.

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Researchers at the U.S.-based intelligence firm Nisos say in a new report that Russia has disguised its own propaganda videos so they can be posted on platforms such as Twitter without revealing their true origin.

The report says the videos falsely claim that Ukraine caused civilian deaths attributed to Russian forces or say residents of areas forcibly annexed by Russia welcome their occupiers.

The reported new tactic is Russias latest attempt to circumvent efforts by European governments and tech companies trying to stop Kremlin propaganda and disinformation about the war.

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KYIV, Ukraine - Ukrainian officials have released disturbing evidence and images they say are from areas that Ukrainian forces recently have retaken from Russian troops.

Serhiy Bolvinov, who heads the investigative department of the national police in the eastern Kharkiv region, on Wednesday said authorities are investigating an alleged Russian torture chamber in the village of Pisky-Radkivski.

He posted an image showing a box of what appeared to be precious metal teeth and dentures presumably extracted from those held at the site.

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MOSCOW - Russian-installed authorities of the Kherson region accused Ukrainian forces on Wednesday of carrying out a missile strike on a hotel in the city of Kherson.

Moscow-backed health officials in the region said one person was killed and three more were wounded. Ukrainian officials havent commented on the strike.

Russian President Vladimir Putin signed laws on Thursday absorbing Kherson and three other Ukrainian regions occupied by his army into Russia after the Kremlin-orchestrated referendums that Ukraine and the West have rejected as a sham.

Putins attempt to cement the increasingly precarious gains of Russias army come as Ukrainian troops are pressing a counteroffensive to reclaim those very regions.

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MOSCOW - The Kremlin held the door open for expanding areas of Ukraine under Russian control following the absorption of four regions it currently holds.

Speaking in a conference call with reporters, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said certain territories will be reclaimed, and we will keep consulting residents who would be eager to embrace Russia.

Russian President Vladimir Putin signed laws absorbing the Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions of Ukraine into Russia after the Kremlin-orchestrated referendums that Ukraine and the West have rejected as a sham.

The move came even as Ukrainian forces were pressing a counteroffensive to reclaim those regions.

Asked about Ukraine taking back some territory in the four regions after their declared annexation, Peskov said Russia would reclaim them.

He wouldnt say if Moscow planned to organize votes in any more Russian-occupied parts of Ukraine.

___

A former Russian state television journalist who quit after staging an on-air protest against the conflict in Ukraine and who was later charged with spreading false information about Russias armed force says she is no longer abiding by house arrest rules.

Marina Ovsyannikova separately was charged in August for taking part in a street protest and holding a banner reading: (Russian President Vladimir) Putin is a killer, his soldiers are fascists. 352 children have been killed (in Ukraine). How many more children should die for you to stop?

A former state-controlled Channel One employee, Ovsyannikova faces up to 10 years in prison if convicted under a law that penalizes statements against the military and that was enacted shortly after Russian troops moved into Ukraine.

Ovsyannikova was placed under house arrest pending an investigation and trial, but over the weekend her ex-husband claimed she had escaped with her young daughter.

In a Facebook post on Wednesday, Ovsyannikova said that starting from Sept. 30, I refuse to abide by the restrictions imposed on me in the form of house arrest and (I) release myself from it.

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BRUSSELS - European Union countries agreed on Wednesday to impose new sanctions on Russia after it illegally annexed four regions in Ukraine, according to an EU official, including an expected price cap on Russian oil.

No details of the sanctions were immediately released. They will be published as soon as Thursday.

They are expected to include a price cap on Russian oil, curbs on EU exports of aircraft components to the country and limits on Russian steel imports.

The moves build on already unprecedented European sanctions against Russia as a result of its war against Ukraine since February.

EU measures to date include restrictions on energy from Russia, bans on financial transactions with Russian entities including the central bank and asset freezes against more than 1,000 people and 100 organizations. They also include a ban on most Russian oil products from December.

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MOSCOW A Russian-installed official in the Kherson region insisted Wednesday that Ukrainian advances in the region have been halted.

Kirill Stremousov, in comments to the state-run news agency RIA Novosti, said that as of this morning there are no movements by Kyivs forces.

Stremousov vowed that they wont enter (the city of) Kherson, it is impossible. He added that the Russian forces in the region were regrouping in order to gather strength and strike (back.)

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KYIV, Ukraine - Ukraines presidential office says that at least five civilians have been killed and eight have been wounded by the latest Russian shelling.

A statement on Wednesday says Russian troops used six Iranian suicide drones to strike the town of Bila Tserkva in the Kyiv region, leaving one person wounded.

The strikes were the first on the town since March when the Russians retreated from the areas near the Ukrainian capital after a failed attempt to capture it.

Russian forces also shelled areas on the western bank of the Dnieper River, facing the Russian-held Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, and in the Donetsk region.

In Sviatohirsk, which was reclaimed by Ukrainian forces, a burial ground for civilians was found and bodies of four civilians were discovered, according to Donetsk Gov. Pavlo Kyrylenko.

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KYIV, Ukraine - Kyiv has dismissed as worthless the laws that Russian President Vladimir Putin signed on Wednesday formalizing the annexation of four Ukrainian regions into Russia.

Original post:
Live Updates: Russia-Ukraine War - Washington Times

October 5, 2022

Hein Goemans, a professor of political science at the University of Rochester, is an expert on international conflictson how they begin and how they may end.

This will shape the rest of the twenty-first century. If Russia loses, or it doesnt get what it wants, it will be a different Russia afterward, Hein Goemans tells the New Yorker. If Russia wins, it will be a different Europe afterward.

He says the hasty withdrawal of Russian troops from northeastern Ukraine is by no means signaling the last stretch of the war. Most people believe that if one side wins a battle or a campaign, peace becomes more likely, says Goemans, author of War and Punishment: The Causes of War Termination and the First World War (Princeton University Press, 2000) and coauthor of Leaders and International Conflict (Cambridge University Press, 2011).

But thats not true. If I fight a war with you and do poorlybut expected to do poorly in the hopes that the next battle will go better for methen Im not going to change my war aims. Only if something unexpected happens, would I change my expectations and my strategy.

Likewise, Putins sham referenda in occupied territories and his calls for a cease-fire do not make peace now any more likely, according to Goemans. Hell propose a deal that the Ukrainians or the West cannot accept; and the Ukrainians will propose a deal that he cannot accept. Thats for domestic consumption in Russia; hes just posturing.

Goemans: No, its not the beginning of the end, but it was unexpected. Individual victories or defeats in a specific battle are often mistakenly read as indicating a change in the likelihood of war termination. Instead, what matters most is whether and how expectations on both sides change. And in this case, clearly Russian expectations of a swift victory have changed. The proof is in the conscription of 300,000 more Russian men, some reportedly without any military training or experience. Russia, I think, has become more pessimistic about getting its original war aims fulfilled. But you dont just kill the enemy and thats that. You need the opponents to change their mind. On the other hand, Ukraine has perhaps become more optimistic. If that is true, the key point to realize is that the gap between the minimal demands may not have decreased at all. While the terms may have shifted in Ukraines favor, both parties may well be as far apart as they had been before.

Hein Goemans.

Goemans: Most people think that if you win a battle or a campaign, peace becomes more likely because the other side is defeated, and they recognize that they are defeated, which makes them more willing to make a deal. But thats not the right way to look at it. A change in expectations is often more important than a single battle or campaign victory. Because if I fight a war or battle with you and do poorlybut expected to do poorly in the hopes that the next battle will go better for methen Im not going to change my war game. Only if something unexpected happened, would I change my expectations and my strategy. Thats the fundamental thing. You could sustain a military defeat and still get a better deal.

A good example is the Yom Kippur War of 1974. The attacking Egyptian army was drastically defeated by the Israelis. Yet the Egyptians got the Sinai back. You askhow is that possible? Well, its because the Egyptian army showed that they were able to cross the Suez Canal and with it all the booby traps and barricades that Israel had built on the Suez Canal. They showed themselves a lot more competent than the Israelis had thought after 1967. So, you have this weird case where militarily Egypt lost, and still, the Egyptians got a better deal in the end, which was clearly not a military outcome. What happened was a change in expectations.

Goemans: No. I still expect the war to last at least another year, maybe two. Both sides still have plans and ideas to test before their expectations are likely to converge. On Putins side, he may still expect Europes unity to crumble and try to force Ukraine to lower its minimum demands, especially if he can freeze them over the winter as a result of the lack of Russian natural gas. Hell propose a deal that the Ukrainians or the West cannot accept; and the Ukrainians will propose a deal that he cannot accept. Thats for domestic consumption in Russia; hes just posturing.

Im not a foreign policy expert, but he probably does this because his massive mobilization is deeply unpopular among the Russian people. He has to find a way to say to his domestic audience something along the lines of, I have to do this. My hands are forced. Im trying honestly to make peace so its not my fault. Its the fault of the evil Ukrainian Nazis.

Ultimately, I think Putins trying to strengthen his bargaining position with the sham referenda and illegal annexations. If it had been a fair referendum under United Nations supervisionthat might have had an effect. But not like this. I meanvoting was held with guards with machine guns at the polling stations and weve seen reports of men with guns at peoples doors, forcing Ukrainians to fill out ballots while being watched. That sends a clear message.

A Ukrainian mechanic test drives a repaired Russian tank in a wooded area outside of Kharkiv, Ukraine, in September. (Getty Images photo / Paula Bronstein)

Goemans: Generally speaking, war provides information and shows the truththe opponents cardsbecause theres no more bluffing. We learn things about our opponent that we wouldnt have known had we not fought. You can see your foes true strength on the battlefield: whose forces are stronger, how good are their tanks, how capable are their generalsall that becomes public knowledge. Thats the prerequisite for peace; you can strike a deal because both sides now know the truth.

Thats the theory, at least. But Ive come to see that intuitive kind of view as insufficient.

We know that some leaders continue fighting for their own survival, against the very interests of their country and their own people. We saw that in Germany in the First and Second World War and also in Japan during World War II. We political scientists hold that opponents fight in order to find that something that makes peace possible. But what really is that? One side must get the other to change its mind. You must get them to agree that making a deal now is better than to continue fighting. I think its the best explanation we have so far. But its not satisfying.

Even if Putin were to be assassinated now, Im not sure that these hawks wouldnt simply escalate the war and press on.

Goemans: Hes boxed himself in. If Putin loses in Ukraine hell fall from power, and likely end up being killed. Leaders in such situations gamble for resurrection, which means they continue with a war, often at greater intensity and brutality, because anything other than victory would mean their own exile or death. It reminds me of the case of Germany in the First World War where just four months into the war Kaiser Wilhelm II and his cabinet concluded that it was unwinnable. Yet, they fought on for another four years. Why? Because they knew that if they lost, they would be overthrown by a revolution. Of course, they were right. Leaders in such unwinnable situations are very dangerous. They are the reason that World War I dragged on much longer than it should have. Thats why Putin is so dangerous.

Goemans: Hes certainly doubling down. Hes painted himself into a corner and cant really make a peace deal. According to classic war-termination theory, three variables have to be consideredinformation, credible commitment, and domestic politics. As long as both sides believe they can win, which clearly they do, and their distrust for each other is growingthink of the recently discovered mass graves and reports of torture by Russian soldiersthere will be no peace.

Putin also has a domestic problem. Originally, he delayed mass mobilization to avoid domestic unrest, against the advice of the political hawks in the Kremlin who want a larger-scale war. Over the past week, more than 200,000 Russians have fled their country to avoid conscription. Even if Putin were to be assassinated now, Im not sure that these hawks wouldnt simply escalate the war and press on. It scares the [expletive] out of me because these people talk about nukes and about attacking Poland and Latvia, Lithuania, and about nuking Paris and London. They are nuts.

Goemans: The hawks in the Kremlin think the war has been fought wrongly or poorly. And in a sense, they are right. The Russian army is just a very weak, poor army. What worries me is that if Russia continues to have to retreat from occupied territory, a small, tactical nuclear strike becomes a real possibilityin an attempt to stop Ukrainian advances. My friend, Branislav Slantchev [a Rochester PhD and now a professor of political science at the University of California, San Diego], has written about this in a recent, terrifying blog post. In that scenario, he said, he expects the Russians to use a nuclear weapon under 1 kiloton, which he says one could fire with artillery or any of the multiple dual-use rockets and missiles the Russians have in their arsenal. Hes got a very good eye and good ears. Hes scared. As am I.

Of course, the United States and the rest of the world would go absolutely bananas. The thing that really struck me a few days ago is that people in Washington have said very clearly, and in very unmistakable terms, that they told Putin and the Kremlin nukes would be unacceptable. So that tells me they are afraid that Russia might actually do it. Otherwise, they wouldnt have to spell it out like that.

(University of Rochester illustration / Michael Osadciw)

Goemans: Well, lets start with the worst-case scenarioif Russia wins and Ukraine is dismembered or wiped out. As a result, the whole security infrastructure in Europe would crumble with direct repercussions for NATO, European Union cohesion, Germany, and the Middle East. All these policies that have led to peaceful cooperation will all be thrown out, creating instability in Europe and affect the United States deeply. And, of course, other would-be dictators would learn from Putins example. A large part of the stability that we saw during the Cold War era was based on the expectation that the situation would be stable. It was stable because we expected it to be stable. But thats clearly no longer the case.

In the best-case scenario Ukraine wins a better deal than before the war. For me that means more defensible borders, which would mean some form of continued Western presence and the arming of Ukraine by the West, along with training and funding. All that would create a much more stable Europe. I hope that the extremists in Russia would have learned a lesson and everybody in Europe would be on their guard with respect to Russia for another generation or two.

Goemans: Putin is gambling with Russias future. On top of the sanctions, the brain drain is tremendous, as is the exodus of young and middle-aged, educated males who have the means and who are worried about being conscripted. Add to that the mounting numbers of dead soldiers: Russia is going to have an acute shortage of men, which will create all kinds of economic and societal problems.

Goemans: Their army is poor, their equipment is rotten, and the sanctions make it impossible to build new equipment, to update their machinery. The best they can hope for? Well, I dont want to advocate for this, of course, but maybe a return to the status quo before February 24, and internationally overseen plebiscites in Luhansk, Donetsk, and Crimea. Thats the very best they could get. But I dont think the Ukrainians would ever accept plebiscites in Luhansk and Donetsk and the areas possibly going to Russia. The question is, what would the Ukrainians accept for Crimea? I dont know. Ukraines Zelensky has basically said that Ukraine would not give up Crimea so that ties his hands, otherwise people would say, you betrayed us. If Zelensky accepted peace terms right now, hed be out of office in a day.

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When will the war in Ukraine end? And how? - University of Rochester