Archive for April, 2022

NFTs Outperformed Cryptos Over Q1 2022 – Crypto Briefing

Key Takeaways

Nansen has published its quarterly report on non-fungible tokens. The NFT market has outperformed the cryptocurrency market so far this year, but there have been significant differences in the growth of different NFT sectors.

Compared to the overall crypto market, NFTs have fared quite well in Q1 2022, though not all were winners.

Nansen, the blockchain analytics platform, released its 2022 quarterly NFT report today, a report preceded by the firms indexing methodology that was formalized last January. In February, the firm launched its NFT market (NFT-500) fund that would track the broader NFT market, as well as the Blue Chip-10, Social-100, Game-50, Art-20, and Metaverse-20.

The non-fungible token market has outperformed the broader cryptocurrency market performance year-to-date, as evidenced by the NFT-500 Indexs price appreciation of 49.9% so far in 2022 when denominated in Ethereum. Nevertheless, the report noted how the NFT market was not immune to the correction seen in the crypto market overall from last February, but that downtrend seemed to reverse in the last month: the NFT-500 jumped 5.9% in March.

The different segments (and corresponding indices) of the NFT market yielded disparate performances. The Metaverse-20 index grew by 129.4% in Q1 (denominated in ETH), while the gaming and art NFT sectors growth decreased. The Gaming-50 index was the worst performing NFT sector Nansen tracked, fueled largely by declines in Play-to-Earn and Role Playing Game NFTs. The Art-20 indexs decline was attributed primarily to a drop in prices for Generative Art NFTs.

The differing NFT sectors also differed wildly in terms of volatility. Metaverse NFTs were the most volatile, whereas Blue Chip NFTs, to which Nansen recently added Azuki, Clone X, and Doodles, were the least volatile.

Louisa Choe, a research analyst at Nansen, said:

The NFT segment of the cryptocurrency market is fast-growing and dynamic and has proved to resonate with retail investors over the past year, with significant growth in Q1 of 2022. As more artists, creators, builders, and community members innovate with the NFT market we believe we will see a rebalancing of which sectors become its driving force.

In addition to outperforming the rest of the cryptocurrency market in Q1, NFTs were also relatively uncorrelated to other crypto assets.

Disclosure: At the time of writing, the author of this piece owned BTC, ETH, and several other cryptocurrencies.

The information on or accessed through this website is obtained from independent sources we believe to be accurate and reliable, but Decentral Media, Inc. makes no representation or warranty as to the timeliness, completeness, or accuracy of any information on or accessed through this website. Decentral Media, Inc. is not an investment advisor. We do not give personalized investment advice or other financial advice. The information on this website is subject to change without notice. Some or all of the information on this website may become outdated, or it may be or become incomplete or inaccurate. We may, but are not obligated to, update any outdated, incomplete, or inaccurate information.

You should never make an investment decision on an ICO, IEO, or other investment based on the information on this website, and you should never interpret or otherwise rely on any of the information on this website as investment advice. We strongly recommend that you consult a licensed investment advisor or other qualified financial professional if you are seeking investment advice on an ICO, IEO, or other investment. We do not accept compensation in any form for analyzing or reporting on any ICO, IEO, cryptocurrency, currency, tokenized sales, securities, or commodities.

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NFTs Outperformed Cryptos Over Q1 2022 - Crypto Briefing

Opinion: As the Fed Tightens, VCs Are Spending Big on Crypto – Crypto Briefing

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The Feds Quantitative tightening will make it difficult for risk-on assets like cryptocurrencies to shine. But at the same time, money from venture capital firms keeps pouring into the space.

Despite a strong start to April, the bullish momentum in the crypto market has definitely cooled off. Last weeks FOMC minutes put a damper on Bitcoins recent rally even after Mayor Francis Suarez unveiled a snazzy new cyber charging bull at the Bitcoin 2022 conference in Miami. Since then weve descended further, tentatively finding support and bouncing from around $39,400.

With consumer price index data slated to reveal another month of record-breaking inflation, the gist from the Fed is that the prospects for the U.S. stock market arent looking so great. In a bid to offset the rampant inflation caused partly by the economic response to Covid-19, and party by commodity supply shocks triggered by Russias invasion of Ukraine, the Fed now needs to unwind its balance sheet comprising mainly of bonds and mortgage-backed securities. This process is known as quantitative tightening, which, grossly oversimplified, means the Fed is trying to suck money out of the economy.

It plans to do this by selling off $95 billion worth of assets every month to meet its projected targets. But thats just the tip of the icebergthe Fed is currently sitting on a whopping $9 trillion worth of assets. Although a good chunk of this is bonds that will expire to maturity over the next few years, the total amount is still substantially larger than the $4.5 trillion the Fed held the last time it implemented quantitative tightening in 2017.

Selling bonds back to the market aims to decrease their price and increase their yields (bond prices and yields are inversely correlated), which means that borrowing becomes more expensive and, since all money is born as debt, money becomes scarcer. Less money in the economy means less demand for goods and services, which should, in theory, suppress inflation, but also less speculating and investing, which is bad for risk-on assets like stonks and crypto.

Another key takeaway from the FOMC minutes is that the Fed is considering selling mortgage-backed securities for the first time as part of its tightening regime. Like the unprecedentedly high asset unwinding that needs to take place, an MBS sale could also have an yet unknown disruptive effect on the U.S. economy. Markets can handle positive or negative sentiment, but things can get scary when the outlook becomes hard to predict.

That all sounds pretty bleak, and it might end up being so for traditional markets. However, you can barely believe the bearish macroeconomic outlook with so much money continually pouring into crypto. As the Fed ruminates about raising rates and selling assets, venture capital firms throw money around like they print the stuff.

Last week saw Axie Infinity developer Sky Mavis rake in $150 million, NEAR Protocol $350 million, and Binance.US a cool $200 million at a $4.5 billion valuation. The list of those investing contains all the usual suspects: Andreessen Horowitz, Tiger Global, Paradigm, and even contributions from TradFi firms like VanEck.

So what can we make of this? On the one hand, the Feds comments imply hard times ahead, but on the other, VCs appear fearless about investing in crypto. To me, one explanation comes to mind. While the short to medium-term macro environment will likely keep things turbulent, investment firms believe it wont be bad enough to do any serious damage. A lot of crypto investors, especially the institutional ones, will be thinking on longer-term time horizons. At the end of the day, theres no sense in passing up what they believe is a great long-term investment opportunity because of some temporary quantitative tightening.

Disclosure: At the time of writing this feature, the author owned ETH, and several other cryptocurrencies.

The information on or accessed through this website is obtained from independent sources we believe to be accurate and reliable, but Decentral Media, Inc. makes no representation or warranty as to the timeliness, completeness, or accuracy of any information on or accessed through this website. Decentral Media, Inc. is not an investment advisor. We do not give personalized investment advice or other financial advice. The information on this website is subject to change without notice. Some or all of the information on this website may become outdated, or it may be or become incomplete or inaccurate. We may, but are not obligated to, update any outdated, incomplete, or inaccurate information.

You should never make an investment decision on an ICO, IEO, or other investment based on the information on this website, and you should never interpret or otherwise rely on any of the information on this website as investment advice. We strongly recommend that you consult a licensed investment advisor or other qualified financial professional if you are seeking investment advice on an ICO, IEO, or other investment. We do not accept compensation in any form for analyzing or reporting on any ICO, IEO, cryptocurrency, currency, tokenized sales, securities, or commodities.

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Opinion: As the Fed Tightens, VCs Are Spending Big on Crypto - Crypto Briefing

Father Stu Is One of The Best Faith-Based Films Ever But Will Anyone See It? – Religion Unplugged

(REVIEW) Father Stu nails the faith-based formula better than maybe any other faith-based film. But it remains to be seen if audiences will come out to see a faith-based film with so much cussing or where the hero leaves the girl to pursue God.

The movie tells the true story of Stuart Long (Mark Wahlberg) an immature, self-centered boxer-turned-aspiring actor with an estranged father (Mel Gibson) and dysfunctional mother who has a religious experience and decides to become a Catholic priest against the wishes of his family, his girlfriend and eventually the church itself before becoming an inspiration to many.

Father Stu is a passion project for Wahlberg, an openly devout Catholic. He has described to America Magazine the movie as the most important movie (hes) ever done and the best movie (hes) ever been a part of. He put a lot of his own money into the film to make it a reality, calling it to Religion News his love letter to God and part of the next phase of his career, in which hes going to focus on faith-based films and films that do good in the world.

Wahlberg explained to America Magazine, Ive always been like, OK, as soon as I get to a certain place, and I have a certain voice and reach and platform, then Ill start doing more things that will move the needle in terms of my faith, and things that I think could be productive, helpful and in service. So when this project came to me, I was like, You know what? I need to go make this.

Wahlberg was inspired by Father Stus life how after a sinful life, he found redemption in faith in Christ and spent the rest of his life showing to others the grace that God had shown him. He got a screenplay from actress and screenwriter Rosalind Ross girlfriend of Wahlbergs friend Mel Gibson and was so impressed with it that he made her the director.

We wanted to make a movie that was edgy and real and relatable to everybody, Wahlberg continued And Stu was one of those guys that when he did his prison ministries, it was where he was most effective because he could speak with (prisoners) on their level, and he understood that he was one of them and that he had been in those seats. And now he was on the other side, and he was reminding them that Gods not going to give up on you, and neither is he.

Although Father Stu is being touted as a faith-based film, Wahlberg is clear in his remarks to Screen Rant that this is a different kind of faith-based film.

I mean, its a rated-R film, he said. Its got language, its got a lot of very raw elements to it. But its also got a lot of humor. Its got a lot of heart. Ive seen a lot of faith-based movies that really preach to the choir, and this is a movie for everybody. This is really encouraging people to not give up on themselves, to see the good in others and to have hope and hopefully reignite their faith, whatever that is.

As someone who has watched and written about faith-based films for a long time, I have a particular appreciation for the uniqueness of what Wahlberg was trying to do with Father Stu. On the one hand, its not like there havent been any religious films that have been edgy or rated R. First Reformed and Silence were celebrated religious films that were heavily mature. But those films were arthouse films that focused on deconstructing religion. What makes Father Stu unique is that it is trying to do what mainstream faith-based films do but in a way that isnt watered down.

People make faith-based films and watch faith-based films in order to express and relive the reasons they love having a relationship with God. Its a form of worship, just like when people make and watch romances to express and relive why they love romantic love and when people make and watch superhero movies to express and relive their love for the heroic ideal.

Wahlberg is motivated by the same desire as faith-based filmmakers to celebrate and pass on the good that God has done for them to others with their filmmaking. Its that same desire to watch that story that has turned faith-based filmmaking into such a consistently massive success despite consistent bad reviews.

Where these faith-based films typically go wrong aside from the bad screenwriting and acting is in their squeamishness at showing the ugliness and messiness of life even as they try to show God redeeming the same ugliness and messiness. They want to show how God redeems people from their brokenness but dont want to show the brokenness that people are being saved from because it drags their minds back into the brokenness rather than the redemption. This is definitely true of some films Im looking at you, The Wolf of Wall Street. But Christian films tend to fall into the opposite error, where you cant see Gods redemption of brokenness because you dont see enough of the brokenness Hes redeeming people from.

Gibson, who plays Stuart Longs father in the film, spoke to The Daily Wire and agreed that this is a problem in most faith-based films:

They keep things pretty sanitized. And thats not who we are. I mean, hey, were here because were a bunch of sinners, right? So this film shows you that. It shows that you can come from the depths of all human weakness and kind of be better than that.

This is one reason I was happily stunned by Father Stu. Its a movie that succeeds at making the Christian film that other Christian films try to, and it knocks it out of the park in all the ways the other movies consistently fail.

First, the quality is on par with any other Hollywood inspirational drama. The acting, screenwriting, camerawork all the aspects of filmmaking range from excellent to at least unobjectionable. The acting is particularly good, with Wahlberg and Gibson completely believable and endlessly entertaining as a dysfunctional father and son. Jackie Weaver is perfectly cast as Stuart Longs mother, as are most of the other characters in the movie. In fact, I would say that as an inspirational drama, this movie is far better.

Next, Father Stu spends a lot of time on Stu before he becomes a Christian and doesnt shy away from what an immature jerk he was nor does it shy away from what toxic people his mom and dad are or how broken the family and their relationships are. Once Stu becomes a Christian and determines to join the priesthood, he doesnt become a more boring and more passive character; he becomes more interesting as he balances his submission to God and the church with his inherent bullheadedness, which bring him into often righteous conflict with his parents, his girlfriend, his fellow priests-in-training and the church leadership.

The arguments Stu has with his family and his community never stop no matter how holy he gets and are always incredibly entertaining. Moreover, the closer he gets to God, the more suffering he experiences, and the more suffering experiences, the more he has to reevaluate his beliefs and get deeper answers. Not only that, but the more suffering he experiences, the closer to his family and community he gets, which because theyve made their relationships so entertaining only makes the movie more fun to watch.

This theme that struggle and suffering cause redemption is something that we rarely see depicted so well. Christian stories that show redemption coming when the suffering is over or the suffering is accepted and religious movies that embrace suffering (Winter Light, Faith Based, First Reformed, Silence) tend to leave their protagonists with less faith at the end of their stories. But Father Stu shows constant struggle and wrestling as the goal of the Christian life and the mechanism of that redemption. The more Stuart Long struggles with God and others, the closer he gets to them.

Mel Gibson elaborated on the importance of this for Stu. He sort of thanks God for his suffering, Gibson said. Hes not praying for an easy life just the grace to live faithfully through a difficult one We dont necessarily win in this life. Thats not what its about. Every one of us has got a boulder that were dragging around somewhere. Were all gonna get knocked over. Weve all got a burden that we have to go through, some more than others, you know? And (Stu) had a heavy one. But man, he was an example of how to triumph over that and weave gold out of it.

Its no wonder why Mark Wahlberg and Mel Gibson both gravitated toward this story. Both have violent and checkered pasts, and both have turned toward their faith as a method of redemption. Those who have forgiven Wahlberg and Gibson for their past will see this as adding another layer of authenticity to the story. Those who have not will see this as another example of two powerful men trying to spin their history into a redemption story.

We both had troubled pasts, Wahlberg said, referring to how his story intersects with Stuart Longs. He figured it all out, but Im still working on things. Elsewhere, Wahlberg elaborated, When all was said and done, and I was alone, and my friends werent there for me anymore, I had my faith, and I had people of faith trying to point me in the right direction. I had real success and experience in focusing my faith and trying to do the right thing, and then getting good results.

This is also one of the few faith-based films that seems particularly designed to appeal to men ironically, since it is also one of the few faith-based films directed by a woman. As a man, Ive often found that the women I know have enjoyed Christian movies more than I have. This makes sense; most Christian moviegoing audiences are women, just like most churchgoers in Western churches are women. Therefore, Christian movies are made primarily with Christian women in mind rather than Christian men.

David Murrow pointed out in his book Why Men Hate Going to Church that women tend to overwhelmingly like stories that resemble romances, and men tend to overwhelmingly prefer stories that resemble action adventure stories. Men like action films more than women even when the protagonist is a woman. This is why most Western churches, where the congregations are overwhelmingly female, and Christian films, whose audience is overwhelmingly female, tend to portray the Christian story primarily as a romance in which the protagonist desires to be loved but resists the love of our lover until through the lovers woo-ing, they discover their lover was their one true love all along.

Also, while most Christian films are made by male directors and feature male protagonists, most of them involve the male protagonist fulfilling married female fantasies, such as husbands apologizing to their wives or girlfriends (Fireproof, American Underdog, War Room, I Can Only Imagine, The Shack) or being better fathers (Courageous, Christmas Shoes, Overcomer, I Can Only Imagine, War Room). The average faith-based film is a Christian womans fantasy: The closer the male protagonist gets to God, the closer he gets to her ideal man.

But Father Stu, while it does follow many of these plot lines, also subverts many of them and merges them with storylines that appeal more to men as well. The movie plays out particularly in the second half as an action or sports movie in which Stuart has to overcome external obstacles by conquering inner demons while tossing quips around like a faith-based Tony Stark. In fact, in contrast to most faith-based films, in order to follow God, Stuart has to defy not only the advice of the men in his life and sometimes church authority but the women in his life too. This is a common experience for men including religious men but it doesnt often make it into faith-based films.

Sadly, despite this being perhaps the best example of the faith-based formula, the movie will probably be ignored by faith-based and secular audiences alike. Secular audiences typically dont come out for anything too heavily religious (e.g., Calvary, Silence, First Reformed), and Christian audiences have a real heavy allergy to swearing, too much veneration of Mary, and portrayals of premarital sex. In probably this movies one really bad misstep to me, Stuart Long and his girlfriend have sex before he decides to become a priest. They do show how that deepens the hurt for her when they break up, but they treat it lightly enough that most Christians will probably find it objectionable.

Christians relationship with swearing in movies tends to perplex and frustrate outsiders. Many Christians see swearing as part of the ugliness in the world, and seeing that in a movie distracts them from experiencing Gods redemption of the ugliness in the world. To people who arent bothered by swearing, this can seem hypocritical, since Christians dont typically have the same problems with depictions of violence as The Passion of The Christ and Hacksaw Ridge can attest which is far worse than swearing. To this, Christians surprisingly, rightly argue that unlike swearing, violence in movies doesnt lead to imitation.

Personally, I dont have a problem with swearing in movies like many Chrsitians do, but I do respect why others do. Even so, to me the swearing in this film serves the same purpose of glorifying God that the explicit violence did in The Passion of The Christ: It increases the authenticity, which makes seeing Gods glory all the more clear. This is how real people like those depicted in the story that need Gods grace actually talk. Even if Christians dont see it that way, though, I hope that Christians dont let that keep them from seeing the movie, since this is exactly the kind of faith-based film we should be encouraging people to make.

That said, I think the fact that Stu and his girlfriend dont get together is going to be maybe the bigger issue that will keep people away from the movie even if they dont admit it. Men wont like it because it will make them choose between their fantasy of getting the girl and their fantasy of being close to God. Women wont like it because it means the closer the hero gets to God, the further he gets from the character they identify with. This isnt theoretical. A gal friend of mine stayed behind from the screener for that very reason.

On the one hand, this is too bad. After all, its a true story, and this is the way it really happened. And its good for the many single Christians to see that a single life can be a life glorifying to God. However, I do relate to feeling the lack of movies that give a picture of what it looks like to integrate my romantic longings with my spiritual longings. So perhaps that would be a good thing to explore in these filmmakers next faith-based project.

That said, theres a chance that Father Stu will do quite well. Mel Gibson who produced the movie and whose girlfriend directed and wrote it has consistently been the one guy whos been able to make R-rated movies that appeal to faith-based audiences (Passion of The Christ, Hacksaw Ridge), so a Gibson-backed project is a better bet than most. And The Daily Wire has also recently had similar success getting faith-based audiences to support its own R-rated movies, and they have been promoting Father Stu as well. Similarly, the popularity of people like Jordan Peterson and a growing Christian masculinity movement show theres a growing interest among men in expressions of Christianity that appeal more to their sensibilities.

Mark Wahlberg told Today he is hopeful that the movie does well and that this opens up further opportunities to make similar films that can give people hope and connect them with their faith:

If people really recognize the power of the film, then maybe those things will happen, you know? Well see. But you know, again, if this movie does a lot and it does a lot of business, itll do a lot for people, and then well be able to do a lot with the success of the film to help others.

I hope that people who constantly say they want great faith-based movies will turn out for Father Stu. And I hope that Christians who normally would shy away from movies with rough dialogue will give it a chance. As someone who hungers for quality and authentic representations of faith onscreen that celebrate God rather than simply deconstruct him, I hope that this movie does well and inspires other moviegoers to follow in its footsteps.

Joseph Holmes is an award-nominated filmmaker and culture critic living in New York City. He is co-host of the podcast The Overthinkers and its companion website theoverthinkersjournal.com, where he discusses art, culture and faith with his fellow overthinkers.

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Father Stu Is One of The Best Faith-Based Films Ever But Will Anyone See It? - Religion Unplugged

Donald Trump says he is ‘perhaps the most honest human’ ever

Donald Trump has suggested that he is perhaps the most honest human being ever created.

The former POTUS naturally didnt hold back when speaking of his character, prompting laughter from his followers.

At a rally in Selma, NC on Saturday the former president defended himself from the multiple investigations probing his tax affairs and his attempts to overturn the 2020 election.

You know, youve been investigated years and years, millions and millions of pages of documents, they found nothing,' Mr. Trump said, supposedly quoting private remarks from a friend. You are the cleanest on Earth when you think about it.'

He continued: I think Im the most honest human being, perhaps, that God ever created. As laughter broke out from his supporters, Mr. Trump added: Perhaps.

His comments come hot on the heels of prosecutors in New York asking a court to hold Mr. Trump in contempt, claiming he is refusing to comply with an order to turn over documentsin her probe ofhis companys business dealings.

New York Attorney General Letitia James also requested that Manhattan Supreme Court Judge Arthur Engoron fine the former president $10,000 for each day he allegedly fails to respect the ruling.

Trump was ordered by a judge in February to comply with subpoenas for documents, but James office says that rather than meet the March 31 deadline, he instead raised new objections.

The ship has long since sailed on Mr. Trumps ability to raise any such objections, AG lawyers said in papers filed in Manhattan Supreme Court Thursday.

Mr. Trumps purported response violates the courts order; it is not full compliance or any degree of compliance, but simply more delay and obfuscation, the filing alleges. Mr. Trump should now be held in civil contempt and fined in an amount sufficient to coerce his compliance with the courts order and compensate [The Office of the Attorney General] for its fees and costs associated with this motion.

In a statement, James said the judges order for Trump to comply with her offices subpoena and hand over relevant documents had been crystal clear.

Instead of obeying a court order, Mr. Trump is trying to evade it, she said. We are seeking the courts immediate intervention because no one is above the law.

Trumps lawyer Alina Habba said, We are prepared to adamantly oppose the frivolous and baseless motion filed by the Attorney Generals office today.

Our client has consistently complied with the many discovery requests served by the Attorney Generals office over the years.

The former president also issued a lengthy statement, blasting James probe as a witch hunt and accusing her of serving as an operative for the Democrat Party in a political prosecution.

This Democrat prosecutorial misconduct began the second I came down the escalator in Trump Tower, and has continued in an attempt to silence a President who is leading in every single poll, Donald Trump said. Never before has this happened to another President, and it is an absolute violation of my civil rights.

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Donald Trump says he is 'perhaps the most honest human' ever

Is Donald Trump a Lock for the 2024 Nomination? – Bloomberg

I expected to discuss all sorts of things with political scientists in Chicago last week, but Ill be honest: When it came to current politics, people were mostly talking about the 2024 presidential nominations especially the Republican one. And folks I spoke with were split right down the middle: About half thought that former President Donald Trump would be the Republican nominee, and half threw up their hands and said they had no idea what would happen.

Im in that second group.

The argument that Trump has the nominationlocked up is pretty straightforward. No, we dont know for sure that hell be running in 2024, but he certainly is running for 2024 right now. That is, hes doing all the things that candidates for president do holding rallies, campaigning,raising moneyand, in his own fashion, putting together a policy platform. Sure, the platform begins and ends with complaining that people are unfair to Donald Trump, but thats pretty much all he did as presidentanyway.

Trump, the case continues, has strong support from primary votersand is liked by almost all of them. Thats usually a winning combination. Yes, a significant group of party actors, including many elected officials, appear to oppose him at least in theory. But only a very small subset of those who tell reporters off the record that Trump is a disaster for the party are willing to say sopublicly. Theres no reason to think that theyllbe any better at coordinating against him than they were in 2016, or that theyll be any better at convincing Republican voters to follow their lead.

Thats not all. In 2016, Trumps big vulnerability was that he had no apparent commitment to the normal Republican policy agenda. That shouldnt be a problem for him after four years in the White House. The first time around, Christian conservatives were skeptical; now, theyre among his strongest supporters. The most notable difference he had with Republican orthodoxy while in the White House was on foreign policy, and in 2024 a lot more party actors are on his side and few voters care about itanyway.

So why wouldnt he win?

I cant speak for everyonewho took thisposition. But for me, its less one big thing than many, many small ones. To begin with: I was wrong about 2016, and while I thinkI understand what happened, Id hesitatebefore making confident predictions aboutRepublican nomination politics again.

Beyond that? Ill note that while Republican voters by all accounts like Trump, thats not actually saying that much; most voters like politicians from their own party once they get to know them. Theres just no way to know how strong their attachment is to Trump how strong any voters attachment is to any politician until its put to the test. Well learn a little more about this when primaries resume in coming weeks. Should the candidates Trump endorsed do badly, its possible that the fear of opposing him will dissipate.

Then theres Trump himself. Yes, he certainly seems to want to be president again. But the idea that hes invincible among Republicans is far from proven. His 2016 nomination was a narrow one, aided by all sorts of odd events includinga fair amount of luck. He also has an electoral record now, and its not exactly an impressive one; after all, he lost re-election, and Republicans lost the House (in 2018) and the Senate (in 2020) while he was in office. His tantrum over losing the presidency and his false claims about fraud have widely been credited for the loss of two Senate seats in Georgia. Republicans may trust Trump more on policy than they once did, but they should have even less confidence that hell be a team player now. That could mean more opposition from party actors than last time.

That leaves the question of whether voters would listen if party actors tried to oppose Trump. They certainly didnt in 2016. Would it be different this time? It might depend on which party actors; if Fox News hosts and talk radio turned against Trump (or, perhaps, just strongly supported some other candidate) I could imagine it mattering.

And thats without getting into the possibility that Trumps various legal entanglements catch up to him. Or that hes less interested in being president again than he is in extracting money from Republican donors, a process that might be disrupted if he formally declared a run for office. Right now the nomination looks extremely valuable, given President Joe Bidens low approval ratings. Butthat could change, and if so Trump might shy away from the risk of a worse loss than he had in 2020.

Besides, were still almost two years from the first caucus or primary. At this point in the 1992 election cycle, incumbent president George H.W. Bush was so overwhelmingly popular that most high-profile Democrats passed on the race; by the time of the New Hampshire primary, Bush was so unpopular that a fringe candidate took 37% of the vote against him.

None of this is to say that Trump wont be the nominee. Its just a case for uncertainty. Perhaps Trumps triumph against all odds (and most expert opinion) in 2016 really does mean that the party is his as long as he wants it to be. Or perhaps it means that the party,the process or both are just a lot less predictable than I and others once believed. Which is true? Sorry. I have no idea.

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Is Donald Trump a Lock for the 2024 Nomination? - Bloomberg