Archive for March, 2022

Democrats Want to Party Like It’s 2018 and Push Health Care – The Daily Beast

Failing in the polls and struggling to craft a compelling message ahead of this Novembers elections, Democrats are turning to a new strategy. Or, really, an old strategy: health care.

Placing health care front and center paid dividends for Democrats in 2018 and 2020, when they won both chambers of Congress and the White House after spending monthsand millionsreminding voters that Republicans had just worked tirelessly to dismantle the Affordable Care Act.

But as the 2022 midterm season ramped up, Democrats had little fodder to revive that playbookuntil Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) opened his mouth.

In a March 7 interview with Breitbart News, Johnson said that if Republicans took control of Congress in 2022, they could actually make good on what we established as our priorities.

And Johnson went straight to Obamacare as an example. If were going to repeal and replace ObamacareI still think we need to fix our health-care systemwe need to have the plan ahead of time so that once we get in office, we can implement it immediately, not knock around like we did last time and fail, he said.

The Wisconsin Republican, who is up for reelection in November, later attempted to walk back those comments, saying he was not suggesting repealing and replacing Obamacare should be one of those priorities.

But by that point, it was too late. Democratic organizations had already blasted out a seemingly endless stream of press releases about Johnsons comments, designed to put vulnerable Republicans on the spot.

House Democrats official campaign arm, for example, quickly sent out a half-dozen emails about it. GOP getting more honest about their agenda, the release said, before asking if 16 different Republican congressional candidates in various states agreed with Johnson.

Democrats arent expecting to get eight months of mileage out of an offhand comment from a rank-and-file senator. But Johnson isnt the only Republican still talking about repealing Obamacare.

Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL), chairman of the Senate GOPs campaign arm, recently put out a plan that proposed raising taxes on low-income Americans and ending all federal programs, including Social Security, Medicare, and presumably the ACA, unless Congress can reauthorize them.

Those developments have cracked open the door for Democrats to pivot toward an issue that, perhaps more than any other, allows them to set up the contrast they want with Republicans.

One of the things we have to do is remind people whose side were on, said Sen. Brian Schatz (D-HI). And the stakes couldnt be higher in this election because Republicans have already demonstrated what they want to do.

Jesse Ferguson, a Democratic strategist who helped set the partys messaging on health care in several election cycles, argued that Democrats have seen over and over how Republicans keep putting their hands on the hot stove, again and again when it comes to health care.

That may be the case for some, but GOP leaders and campaign organizations decided long ago to avoid the issue, after the political winner turned into a surefire political loser. Virtually no Republican in a competitive race in this election year is on the campaign trail professing their passion to destroy the health-care law. In fact, many GOP candidates have even adopted Obamacares most popular parts in their own health-care messaging.

Because of that, its hard to imagine Democrats Obamacare-focused pitch having even close to the same effect it did in 2018 or 2020. But some Democrats believeor, at least, hopethat Republicans will continue burning themselves on that hot stove. And they are trying to create as many opportunities as possible for them to do just that.

A Democratic aide, speaking anonymously to candidly describe party strategy, told The Daily Beast they cant emphasize enough how important the health-care contrast will be for the party in 2022.

Unequivocally, Democrats are going to hold Republicans feet to the fire on this, and make this an issue for them they have to own and talk about, the aide said.

Asked about the partys strategy on Obamacare, Chris Taylor, spokesperson for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, said the DCCC plans to remind voters frequently about the GOPs stances on health care.

Democrats want to lower the costs of medicines, protect health care, and lower costs for families, Taylor said. Were going to make sure voters know the difference between us and them.

Its a good time for Democrats to refocus on favorable turf, given that the current political landscape is bleak for the party as the midterm season heats up. And with the anniversary of the law coming up next week, national and state level Democratic Party organizations have a slate of events planned to keep it on the agenda.

The slumping of their legislative agenda on Capitol Hill, plus the growing political challenge posed by inflation, have forced Democrats to engage in some public soul-searching over what, exactly, their pitch will be to voters.

The chair of the DCCC, Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (D-NY), has candidly acknowledged Democrats communications struggles. The problem is not the voters, he said last week. The problem is us.

Its much smarter for the Democrat in charge of House campaign strategy to talk about the failings of his party than to just ignore them. But for Democrats, to play the inflation political game is to lose: they can propose as many solutions as they like, but even if they pass, current inflation is a global phenomenon with complex causes.

Republicans know that, in just hammering home the problem and blaming the party in power, Democrats risk looking insensitiveor just out-of-touch if they minimize the impact of rising costs or reject the blame.

And so, Democrats are now trying to talk about inflation, but through the frame of health care. Increasingly, Democrats are framing their health-care talking points in the kitchen-table language of costs.

That might help bail Democrats out. One strategist with access to recent polling information found that voters have given Republicans a 5-point advantage on reducing inflation. But they gave Democrats a 10-point advantage on reducing the cost of health care.

A recent press release from Building Back Together, a Democratic political group, highlighted Johnsons comments while declaring that President Joe Biden is laser-focused on lowering costs while congressional Republicans unveil plans to increase strain on working Americans.

Democrats believe that the COVID pandemic has only underscored that advantage, and that their programs to rein in individuals health-care costslike the ACAwill look even more essential to voters as prices increase on all manner of goods and services.

The biggest problem for Democrats, however, might be that they havent yet made good on their lofty promises to enact significant changes to lower health-care costs.

The partys marquee legislationthe multi-trillion dollar package formerly known as the Build Back Better Actwas supposed to carry measures to lower the cost of prescription drugs and expand Medicaid.

That legislation fell apart last year after months of talks. Democrats are hoping a last-ditch effort to pass a narrower package with health-care measures could succeed, but the odds are not especially good.

Leaving Democratic candidates empty-handed on the campaign trail is a nightmare scenario for many in the party. But right now, operatives insist that the party will not lose credibility with voters if they dont make progress in expanding health-care access and lowering costsmostly because they are confident they can persuade voters that Republicans would do much worse.

Democrats have a credibility contrast no matter what happens when it comes to the issue of health care, said Jess Floyd, president of American Bridge 21st Century, a major Democratic super PAC. She noted a number of GOP Senate hopefuls in key swing states who have taken actions to dismantle Obamacare, previewing the potential attack lines for Democrats later in the year.

Most Democrats emphasize that health care is just one key component of a broader message that, if successful, could shore up the partys cred with pocketbook-focused voters.

The party would be overjoyed if they could spend the next year just running against the policy plan proposed by Scott, the Senate GOP campaign chair. His proposal to give Americans skin in the game by imposing taxes on those who dont pay them was a gold mine for the party.

The plan quickly became such a lightning rod that many Republicans, including Senate Majority Mitch McConnell (R-KY), publicly distanced themselves from it. A national GOP strategist told The Daily Beast that Scotts plan was incredibly dumb, which is why you havent seen many serious Republican candidates across the country embracing it. Faced with such criticism, Scott has defended his plan as a defiance of Beltway cowardice.

In a brief interview in the Capitol, Scott downplayed Republicans designs on health care. Notably, Obamacare is not mentioned once in his 11-page document, and he affirmed his support for keeping protections for patients with pre-existing medical conditions.

I dont think the Democrats have anything to attack us on, he said, arguing that Democrats are not doing anything to make sure people get health insurance, theyre not doing anything to fix Medicare.

Of course, congressional Democrats tried for the better part of a year to give millions more people health insurance. Some, like Rep. Dan Kildee (D-MI), believe that the politics of the issue are so bad for Republicans that they wouldnt even take a pass at Obamacare, or other key health-care programs, if they had the chance.

When we won in 2018, health care was front and center. Its an issue that affects everyone, regardless of what their political ideology is, whether theyre political or apolitical, Kildee said. Republicans will make a mistake if they decide theyre going to threaten health care again. Well make sure people know that.

View post:
Democrats Want to Party Like It's 2018 and Push Health Care - The Daily Beast

Two Kennebec County Democrats face off for party nomination in county commissioner race – Kennebec Journal and Morning Sentinel

AUGUSTA The contested primary race to fill the open District 2 Kennebec County commissioner seat pits a Democratic state representative against a retired state Department of Environmental Protection employee.

At Tuesdays deadline to file petitions for candidacy, Charlotte Warren of Hallowell and Philip Garwood of Gardiner had both submitted petitions and will appear on the June 14 primary ballot for the Democratic nomination race.

Kennebec County has three county commissioners, each representing a geographic district. District 2 encompasses Farmingdale, Fayette, Gardiner, Hallowell, Litchfield, Monmouth, Mount Vernon, Pittston, Randolph, Readfield, Vienna, Wayne, West Gardiner and Winthrop.

County commissioners oversee the countys fiscal operations and budget that totaled $14.3 million in 2021. They also make policy decisions that affect county government and its 170 employees. The countys budget obligations include funding departments such as the county jail, the sheriffs office, emergency management and registers of probate and deeds.

County commissioners also govern unorganized territories. In Kennebec County, the commissioners oversee Unity Township.

The salary for the position is currently $13,047; the salary of the chairman, who is elected annually, is $13,768.

Nancy Rines of Gardiner was first elected as the District 2 Kennebec County commissioner in 1982, and was the first woman elected as a commissioner in the county. She has served nearly every term since then and has declined to seek another.

Both candidates see opportunity in the $23.7 million in American Rescue Plan Act funds that the county is receiving from the federal government to advance efforts to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic, and the grants to organizations it will fund.

Garwood said he supports using the money to benefit the greatest number of people.

How many people will benefit and what sort of needs would get met by a particular request that might or might not have any other sources of support, he said.

At the same time, he said, it is money that can be spent once and is not suitable for projects requiring ongoing funding.

Warren said with the influx of ARPA funds and the expected settlement of opioid lawsuits, she would like to make the budgeting process for county government more transparent and involve more county residents in decisions on how that money is spent at the county level.

I envision that involvement in the same way I have always done my work, which is to use all of the tools that I have access to invite citizens to join in, she said. I think many of us are working our jobs, raising our children, paying our bills, and unless something is put in front of us, its tough to keep track of everything. I see it as the role of the entity itself to provide opportunities for people to be involved.

She said she sees the role of government is to provide opportunities to be involved.When she was mayor in Hallowell, the citys website was redesigned and a newsletter was launched that still continues today.

As a communications consultant, I do that for other entities, and I would love to do that as well for county government, she said.

Both candidates say they dont see the need for proposing changes if elected.

Garwood said his history of involvement with a lot of things is to form an opinion about whats going on and look for ways to improve.

Theres nothing that I am aware of that I think is wrong, he said. I like to take the point of view that someone like me who has never been involved can ask the dumb questions and maybe that will lead to a worthwhile reevaluation of how things are done.

Warren said people dont talk very much about county government because it is doing so much right, and she wants to continue that trend. She has worked with county commissioners both as a municipal official and a state official.

I have always been proud of Kennebec County, and I want to continue that tradition, she said.

Garwood has not run for elective office before, but agreed to when members of the county Democratic Committee asked him to run.

Before he retired, he was active in the Maine Service Employees Union, which is affiliated with the Service Employees International union, as a delegate to the annual convention for many years, and as chapter vice president and president. For three terms, he served on the unions statewide board of directors.

While the departments in county government and the union are different, he said the tasks for a board member and a county commissioner are very similar in concept overseeing department activities and approving the budget, for example.

He said hes been involved in a number of activities in both his personal and professional lives that have been targeted at improving things and making things better, from improvements to his home to serving as Scoutmaster for 5 1/2 years for the Boy Scouts of America, an organization dedicated to developing future leaders. At his church, he worked to improve and provide facilities to hold better programs.

Warren, who is currently serving as a state representative in District 84, representing Hallowell, Manchester and West Gardiner, and has served as a city councilor and mayor in Hallowell, said she has a great deal of budget experience that she can use as a county official.

As the House chairwoman of the Maine State Legislatures Criminal Justice and Public Safety Committee, she and her Senate co-chair have overseen the budgets of the departments of Public Safety, Corrections, and the Maine Emergency Management Agency.

A bill she has sponsored to stabilize county jail funding receives a bipartisan unanimous vote in the Criminal Justice Committee on Wednesday, following stakeholder meetings to craft an agreement that could gain the approval of the committee.

While the process is not complete, she said, it moves the solution to a chronic funding shortfall along, increasing the requested appropriation from $12 million to $20 million and putting that funding request on the same footing as any other request under the commissioner of the Department of Corrections.

That meant staying at the table even when it was difficult, it meant lots and lots of meetings, and a lot of listening, she said. Those are my skills. Thats what I like about government work. I like listening, bringing people together and trying to solve issues.

The winner of this primary race will face off in November against Republican Joseph Pietroski Jr. of Winthrop, who has no primary opponent.

The deadline for petitions for nonparty candidates to appear on the November ballot is June 1.

Invalid username/password.

Please check your email to confirm and complete your registration.

Use the form below to reset your password. When you've submitted your account email, we will send an email with a reset code.

Previous

Next

See the original post:
Two Kennebec County Democrats face off for party nomination in county commissioner race - Kennebec Journal and Morning Sentinel

The Democrats Think They Own Black Americans’ Votes, and Will Bully and Lie to Keep Them – The Stream

It is that time of the year when we can expect retail stores to be selling us Easter bunnies and chocolate. This has something remotely to do with the resurrection of Jesus Christ. And its always in season for the Democrats to be selling us on the notion of Republicans being racists.

Nothing the Democrats have done since losing the Civil War in 1865 has improved quality of life in any conceivable way for the vast majority of Black Americans. But it makes sense that the party of Joe Biden would be reaching into its old bag of tricks, trying to convince their most faithful constituency to vote for them in the 2022 mid-term elections. The latest acts of deception: claims that Republicans are racists who 1) dont want to stop lynchings; 2) are against voting rights for Blacks; and 3) do not want a Black woman to be confirmed as a Supreme Court Justice.

Lets start with the Emmett Till Anti-Lynching Bill. Did you know that the Congress original anti-lynching bill was first introduced in 1917 by a Republican, Representative Leonidas C. Dyer from Saint Louis? It died of filibuster by Democrats. Every year, lynchings kill exactly zero black Americans. This has been true for decades. Abortion, by contrast, is the number one killer of minorities, but Democrats today care as little about that as they used to care about lynching.

The new Emmett Till bill (H.R. 55) adds nothing substantive to 18 U.S. Code 249 (the Hate Crime Acts). It would give judges the discretion to sentence those found guilty of the crime of lynching for up to 30 years in prison, in comparison to the 10 year maximum sentencing guidelines for other hate crimes. But a judge could have accomplished the same effect of a 25-years-to-life sentence simply by running consecutive terms for all the other crimes related to a lynching, such as kidnapping, false imprisonment, aggravated assault, aggravated murder, etc.

So this bill is just more dusty window dressing outside the massage parlor called Playing Blacks For Stupid. It is nothing less than political concubinage, where Democrats work as hard as they can to stir up and perpetuate the sacrament of fear. The goal? To keep blacks serving their political masters, the Democrats.

According to the Kaiser Family Foundation, in November 2020, 69% of the Black American population was registered to vote. The Brennan Center for Justice reported in August 2021, that more Black Americans voted in 2020 than any presidential election since 2012. Yet, on March 6, 2022, Vice President Kamala Harris stood at a podium on Edmund Pettus Bridge in Selma, Alabama. She spoke to hundreds of black citizens whod always had the right to vote. But she pretended that Black folk are being kept from the polls, as if they did not play a vital role in twice electing Barack Obama as President.

The political party Black Americans have been taught to trust is manipulating them through fear. That strikes me as one of the greatest tragedies of modern civilization. One party, the Democrats, can dominate the votes of a whole ethnic group, and use it to seize the wheel of power in nearly every major city.

On top of flogging this empty, symbolic anti-lynching bill, mainstream media are trying to make a racial litmus test out of support for confirmation ofJudge Ketanji Brown Jackson.

The story line here is simple: Republicans are racists. Theyre only putting on an act, and hiding it by refusing to ask Judge Jackson tough questions at an interview for a lifetime judicial appointment. Every day until Judge Ketanji Brown Jackson is confirmed, CNN and the rest will keep on reminding us how Republican senators are trying hard not to remind Black voters how racist they are, so that Black voters do not show up at the ballot booth to vote against them. The ballot booth at which they are not allowed to vote, that is. Can you keep the logic there straight?

The same party that used the filibuster to block Dyers 1917 Anti-Lynching Bill used the threat of filibuster in 2005 to block President G.W. Bush from appointing Janice Rogers Brown. She was a Black pro-life Christian. Bush wanted her to replace Sandra Day OConnor. But the only good and acceptable Black Americans are those who obediently vote as Democrats tell them. So Joe Biden led a successful filibuster threat.

We should not have to live in a society where party politics have become a pseudo-religion with all the trappings of cultural sacraments and faith without reason. All Americans deserve better than political parties using fear, emotion, and lies to manipulate their votes.

More here:
The Democrats Think They Own Black Americans' Votes, and Will Bully and Lie to Keep Them - The Stream

The Security Community dilemma of the European Union in Eastern Europe – Modern Diplomacy

Friction is the difference between war on paper and war as it actually is.-Karl von Clausewitz, On War

The Friction of Nuclear Crisis

Amid multiplying perils of Russias aggression[1] against Ukraine, one obligation remains primary for all parties. This is the core requirement to discourage elements of nuclear friction[2] during this crisis.[3] More specifically, though a US-Russia nuclear clash could result from deliberate national decisions by either party, such an outcome could also be unintentional.

Certain corollary obligations for the United States are worth noting. It is now patently time-urgent for capable American strategic thinkers to consider variously tangible and inter-penetrating prospects of an inadvertent nuclear war. This current subject of existential risk will display significant nuances.

Such derivative or reflective particulars will warrant immediate and informed study.

Nuances of an Inadvertent Nuclear War

Prima facie, these are not matters for everyday politicos to solve. Conspicuous definitional clarifications are in order. To begin, although an accidental nuclear war would always be inadvertent, not every inadvertent nuclear war would be the result of accident.

Pertinent examples may be identified. Other conceivable forms of unintentional nuclear conflict could represent the sudden or incremental outcome of human misjudgment and/or technical miscalculation. This is the case whether a bellum atomicum was spawned by singular nation-state error or by both sides to an ongoing nuclear crisis escalation.

Meaningful or even decisive here could be synergies. In brief, these factors would represent force-multiplying intersections that may arise between certain decision-maker misjudgments and/or miscalculations. Indeed, amid growing nuclear perils of the Ukraine crisis, synergies whether foreseen or unforeseen could prove utterly determinative.

There is more. In all such densely complicated matters, conceptual understanding must be prior or antecedent to any actual policy. By definition, in specifically synergistic intersections, the cumulative whole of any considered combination would be greater than the sum of its component parts. Here, inter alia, the quantifiable outcome of two discrete national decisions would likely prove more consequential than any discernible result suggested by arithmetic summation.

This presumptively heightened importance could be tangible, intangible or somewhere in-between.

What else? Ultimately, in the matter of Russias still-escalating aggressions against Ukraine,[4] synergistic outcomes must represent a bewildering complex of intellectual/analytic issues. These important outcomes would not represent merely mundane or trivial political matters. To the point, they would not represent any matters amenable to forms of political resolution.

Initially, at least, the manifest risks of any deliberate nuclear war and inadvertent nuclear war should be assessed independently.[5] Accordingly, among other things, US President Joe Biden should prepare to deal systematically and dispassionately with predictable manifestations of cyber-attack and cyber-war originating within the present Ukraine crisis. To whatever extent possible, these high-technology threats ought to be considered in careful conjunction with simultaneously expanding activities of digital mercenaries.

These will be largely new frontiers.

Any residual US preparations for a nuclear war by intention (deliberate nuclear war) could have marked effects on the likelihood of inadvertent nuclear war. These preparations could be entirely rational. To wit, they would be designed to ensure US escalation dominance whenever intra-crisis hegemony was seemingly required.

Unequivocally, for the United States, risks of deliberate and inadvertent nuclear war must remain delicately intertwined. To best minimize these grave risks should always be the responsibility of genuine strategists and scholars, not ill-prepared or delusional politicos[6] who would see their personal success in attitude, not preparation.[7]

There is more. In logic and science, precise language always matters. In the uniquely delicate matters of war and peace, dangerous false warnings could be generated by different types of technical malfunction and/or by third-party hacking interference. Nonetheless, these concocted signals should not be included under the pertinent causes of an inadvertent nuclear war. For analytic purposes, which are ultimately crucial to any purposeful security policy, false warnings should be taken as cautionary narratives of an accidental nuclear war.

These are meaningful distinctions. Recognizing the territorial and geopolitical loci of accelerating nuclear threats to the United States, Ukraine-related existential issues should focus in part on Russian, Chinese, and even North Korean interdependencies. Concessions allegedly offered to US President Biden by Russian President Putin might not be plausibly reassuring vis--vis the variably unpredictable perils originating from China. Reciprocally, Putin could have determinable reason to be concerned about any US concessions offered on behalf of particular NATO member states.

In strategic terms, there is a great deal to assess. Metaphorically, for the United States, there are additional (and more-or-less interdependent) flies in the ointment. For both President Biden and President Putin, such irritants will substantially complicate some critical elements of Americas national security decision-making process. Taken together, these irritants should immediately bring to mind Carl von Clausewitzs classical war-planning hypotheses concerning friction.[8]

Nuclear War by Miscalculation, Misinterpretation and Escalation Dominance

Purposeful defense policies will always require variously refined methods. For the United States, conceptual clarity should become a much more plainly apparent sine qua non for resolving Ukraine-based risks. Most worrisome among all potentially credible causes of an inadvertent nuclear war would be errors in calculation committed by one or both sides. Clarifying examples here could involve assorted misjudgments of adversarial intent or capacity that emerge in some calculable tandem or conformance with any ongoing crisis escalation.

Friction will matter. Such consequential misjudgments could stem from an amplified intra-crisis desire by one or several contending parties to achieve escalation dominance.[9] Among other stratagems, relevant desire could sometime involve a seeming willingness to tolerate a limited nuclear war.[10] In such foreseeable conditions, all rational contestants would strive for intra-crisis supremacy, but without risking unacceptable odds[11] of suffering total or near-total destruction.

In these inherently ambiguous circumstances, the operative definition of unacceptable would necessarily be subjective.

On strategic matters, intersections and complexities can be expansive and excruciatingly difficult to fathom. As a correlative matter, the variously assorted causes of an inadvertent nuclear war now warrant closer expert study. These additional causes include flawed interpretations of computer-generated nuclear attack warnings; unequal willingness among calculating adversaries to risk catastrophic war; overconfidence in deterrence and/or defense capabilities on one side or the other (or both); adversarial regime changes; outright revolution or coup dtat among variously contending adversaries; and poorly-conceived pre-delegations of nuclear launch authority among more-or-less wary foes.[12]

Rationality and Irrationality

On such potentially existential crisis matters as present-day Ukraine, US strategic thinking should never be narrowly cookbook or formula-based. One potential source of inadvertent nuclear war involving the United States could be as a backfire effect from untested strategies of pretended irrationality. In principle, a rational Russian enemy that managed to convince Washington of its decisional irrationality could sometime spark an American military preemption. In an utterly worst case scenario, an adversarial leadership in Moscow that had begun to take seriously certain hints of decisional irrationality in Washington could be frightened into striking first. Because such a scenario would be without precedent or sui generis, there could be no purpose to calling it probable or improbable.

By definition, neither designation could possibly make any sense.

Metaphor may also be instructive. Joe Biden must remain wary of nightmare. According to the etymologists, the root here is niht mare or niht maere, the demon of the night. Dr. Johnsons dictionary says this corresponds to Nordic mythology, which regarded nightmares as the product of demons. This would make it a play on, or a translation of, the Greek ephialtes or the Latin incubus. In all such interpretations of nightmare, the inherently non-rational idea of some demonic origin is central.

For the United States, the Ukraine-based demons of nuclear strategy and nuclear war must take a markedly different form. In essence, the mien of these demons is distracted and political. If these demons are now thought to be sinister, it is not because Vladimir Putin actively craves war with the United States, but because he may be seeking personal and national safety amid a self-propelled global chaos.[13]

Though grotesque, primal and barbarous, that Russian dictators search could still be technically rational.

There is more. While the state of nations has always been in the state of nature[14] at least since the seventeenth century and the historic Peace of Westphalia (1648) current conditions of nuclear capacity and worldwide anarchy portend an expanding cauldron of unprecedented aggressions. The correct explanation for any such dire portents lies in the indispensability of rational decision-making to viable nuclear deterrence[15] and in the coexistent fact that rational decision-making could become subject to suddenly corrosive deteriorations.

Synergy, First-Use and Worldwide Human Rights

Presently, America faces national security risks that remain both immediate and existential. Such formidable risks can be fully understood only in light of the believable or at least conceivable intersections arising between them. On occasion, some of these reinforcing intersections could also prove synergistic. Though contradicting what we first learned in primary school arithmetic, the whole of strategic intersectional risk effects could sometime be greater than the discernible sum of its component parts.[16]

There is more. On matters of US nuclear crisis decision-making, there will be certain applicable matters of jurisprudence or law. Under relevant US Constitutional law[17] (Article l), holding Congressional war-declaring expectations aside, any presidential order to use nuclear weapons, whether issued by an apparently irrational president or by an otherwise incapacitated one, would warrant automatic obedience. To conclude otherwise in such incomparably dire circumstances would be law-violating.

Any chain-of-command disobedience in such time-urgent circumstances would be impermissible on its face. Further, an American president could order the first use of American nuclear weapons even if this country were not under any actual nuclear attack. In this connection, further strategic and legal distinctions will need to be made between a nuclear first use and a nuclear first strike. While there does exist an elementary but still-substantive difference between these two nuclear options, it is a distinction that former President Donald Trump absolutely failed to understand. This nation managed to survive that experience under a president starkly unfamiliar with nuclear strategy, but such previous episodes of good luck need never be repeatable.

In the United States, substantial decisional risks still obtain.[18] Where should President Joe Biden go from here in the imperative management of such urgent security issues? Inter alia, a coherent and comprehensive answer will need to be prepared in response to the following basic question: If faced with a presidential order to use nuclear weapons, and if not offered sufficiently appropriate corroborative evidence of any actually impending existential threat, would the National Command Authority be: (1) willing to disobey, and (2) capable of enforcing such variable expressions of official disobedience?

In all such unprecedented crisis-decision circumstances, authoritative decisions could have to be made in compressively time-urgent segments of minutes, not hours or days. Here, as far as any useful policy guidance from the past might be concerned, there could be no scientifically valid way to assess the true probabilities of possible outcomes. This is because all scientific judgments of probability whatever the salient issue or subject must always be based upon the discernible frequency of pertinent past events.

Any other bases could provide American nuclear strategists with only an intelligent guess.

In prospectively relevant matters of nuclear war, there could be nopertinent past events. Though this represents a fortunate absence, it would still stand in the way of rendering fully reliable decision-making predictions. Prima facie, whatever the scientific obstacles,[19] the optimal time to prepare for any such incomparably vital US national security difficulties is now.

In the currently urgent security matter of Ukraine, President Biden, faced with dramatic uncertainties about Vladimir Putin s willingness to push the nuclear envelope, could sometime find himself confronted with a bewilderingly stark choice. This choice would be deciding between outright capitulation to Russian war crimes[20]/crimes against humanity[21] and risking a nuclear war. In this regard, Biden would need to continuously bear in mind Americas law-based responsibility to uphold basic justice[22] in other countries, especially where human rights were under conspicuous and egregious assault by another super-power.[23]

Within the broad parameters of Realpolitik[24] or geopolitics, the field of nuclear policy decision-making remains largely without any tangible precedent. While the search for escalation dominance may be common to all imaginable sorts of military deal-making, the plausible costs of nuclear bargaining losses could prove incomparable. No other military losses could reasonably be compared to ones in a nuclear war, whether intentional, inadvertent or accidental.

There is more. In such a war, whether occasioned by miscalculation, human error or hacking-type interference, there could be no identifiable winner. Still, a number of significant and generic risks continue to obtain. Looking ahead, the very best way for America to forestall being placed in extremis atomicum is for President Joe Biden to stay focused on intellectual[25] and analytic explanatory factors. In all such complex policy matters, narrowly political judgments should always be deemed unworthy and extraneous.

Sometimes the poet may see more clearly than the policy-maker.[26] America should never allow itself to be caught unaware.[27] In playing such high-stakes games as nuclear strategy and escalation dominance, there would be no comforting do overs. At any late stage of bargaining and brinksmanship, even a single and seemingly minor loss could prove grievously lethal and irreversible.

Most important of all will be the calculated prevention of an inadvertent nuclear war. Even in the absence of a nuclear adversary that would wittingly brandish apocalyptic threats, America is imperiled by such a nuclear adversary through the multiple and synergistic dangers of national policy inadvertence. Even in a strategic world wherein Russian and American leaders remain reliably rational, these dangers must remain prospectively existential. They can, however, be limited and managed if they are first suitably delineated, clarified and investigated.

In the final analysis, the security task in Ukraine must be conceptualized as a fundamentally intellectual one, a titanic struggle to narrow the gap between war on paper and war as it actually is.[28] Because the only reasonable use for nuclear weapons in this escalating struggle will be deterrence ex ante, not victory ex post, the American president and his senior advisors must somehow meet the perplexing expectations of escalation dominance without simultaneously triggering a nuclear exchange. In large measure, this task will require the decision-making principals to manage an existential crisis without any historical precedent, and to somehow do so with the more-or-less active cooperation of Russian president Vladimir Putin.

Going forward on Ukraine, American strategic failure could not possibly represent an acceptable option. Still, success in any of its conceivable forms will remain sorely problematic. Joe Bidens de facto recognition of Clausewitzian friction (i.e., his avoiding a no-fly-zone over Ukraine) is both understandable and indispensable. To be sure, we may all wish it were different for plainly credible humanitarian reasons, but, in the end, meeting the obligations of nuclear war avoidance should prove overriding.

Always.

[1] On the crime of aggression under international law, see: RESOLUTION ON THE DEFINITION OF AGGRESSION, Dec. 14, 1974, U.N.G.A. Res. 3314 (XXIX), 29 U.N. GAOR, Supp. (No. 31) 142, U.N. Doc. A/9631, 1975, reprinted in 13 I.L.M. 710, 1974; and CHARTER OF THE UNITED NATIONS, Art. 51. Done at San Francisco, June 26, 1945. Entered into force for the United States, Oct. 24, 1945, 59 Stat. 1031, T.S. No. 993, Bevans 1153, 1976, Y.B.U.N. 1043.

[2] In effect, though never made explicit by the White House, it is to acknowledge this element of friction that President Biden has steered away from establishing a no-fly-zone over Ukraine.

[3] As this crisis in Ukraine is essentially sui generis there have been no plausibly equivalent nuclear threat events to draw upon nothing scientific can yet be said about nuclear war probabilities. Always, in both logic and mathematics, scientifically-valid probabilities must be based upon the determinable frequency of pertinent past events.

[4] These aggressions include a variety of related crimes under international law, all of them egregious in the Nuremberg sense. The principles of international law recognized by the Charter of the Nuremberg Tribunal and the judgment of the Tribunal were affirmed by the U.N. General Assembly as AFFIRMATION OF THE PRINCIPLES OF INTERNATIONAL LAW RECOGNIZED BY THE CHARTER OF THE NUREMBERG TRIBUNAL. Adopted by the U.N. General Assembly, Dec. 11, 1946. U.N.G.A. Res. 95 (I), U.N. Doc. A/236 (1946), at 1144. This AFFIRMATION OF THE PRINCIPLES OF INTERNATIONAL LAW RECOGNIZED BY THE CHARTER OF THE NUREMBERG TRIBUNAL (1946) was followed by General Assembly Resolution 177 (II), adopted November 21, 1947, directing the U.N. International Law Commission to (a) Formulate the principles of international law recognized in the Charter of the Nuremberg Tribunal and in the judgment of the Tribunal, and (b) Prepare a draft code of offenses against the peace and security of mankind. (See U.N. Doc. A/519, p. 112). The principles formulated are known as the PRINCIPLES OF INTERNATIONAL LAW RECOGNIZED IN THE CHARTER AND JUDGMENT OF THE NUREMBERG TRIBUNAL. Report of the International Law Commission, 2nd session, 1950, U.N. G.A.O.R. 5th session, Supp. No. 12, A/1316, p. 11.

[5] The respective physical harms would be the same. For earlier looks at the expected consequences of nuclear war effects by this author, see: Louis Ren Beres, Apocalypse: Nuclear Catastrophe in World Politics (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1980); Louis Ren Beres, Mimicking Sisyphus: Americas Countervailing Nuclear Strategy (Lexington, Mass: Lexington Books, 1983); Louis Ren Beres, Reason and Realpolitik: U.S. Foreign Policy and World Order (Lexington, Mass: Lexington Books, 1984); and Louis Ren Beres, Security or Armageddon: Israels Nuclear Strategy (Lexington, Mass: Lexington Books, 1986).

[6] In his relatively ignored book on Woodrow Wilson, Sigmund Freud observes: Fools, visionaries, sufferers from delusions, neurotics and lunatics have played great roles at all times in the history of mankind. Usually, they have wreaked havoc.

[7] This was the view of former US President Donald J. Trump, who claimed to have halted North Koreas nuclearization by mutually falling in love with Kim Jung On. This bizarre Trump statement should remind readers of a timeless comment by poet Berthold Brecht (then thinking of the murderous German Chancellor Hitler): The man who laughs has simply not yet heard the terrible news.

[8] In essence, the Clausewitzian concept of friction refers to variously unpredictable effects of inevitable strategic uncertainties; e.g., on under-estimations or over-estimations of relative power position and the unalterably vast differences between abstract theories of war and war as it actually is. See: Carl von Clausewitz, Uber das Leben und den Charakter von Scharnhorst, Historisch-politische Zeitschrift, 1 (1832); cited in Barry D. Watts, Clausewitzian Friction and Future War, McNair Paper No. 52, October, 1996, Institute for National Strategic Studies, National Defense University Washington, D.C. p. 9.

[9] See, by this writer, Louis Ren Beres (Pentagon): https://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/united-states-nuclear-strategy-deterrence-escalation-and-war

[10] US strategic thinkers must soon inquire whether accepting a visible posture of limited nuclear war would merely exacerbate enemy nuclear intentions, or whether it would actually enhance this countrys overall nuclear deterrence. Such questions have been raised by this author for many years, but usually in explicit reference to more broadly theoretical or generic nuclear threats. See, for example, Louis Ren Beres, The Management of World Power: A Theoretical Analysis (1972); Louis Ren Beres, Terrorism and Global Security: The Nuclear Threat (1979; second edition, 1987); Louis Ren Beres, Apocalypse: Nuclear Catastrophe in World Politics (1980); Louis Ren Beres, Mimicking Sisyphus: Americas Countervailing Nuclear Strategy (1983); Louis Ren Beres, Reason and Realpolitik: US Foreign Policy and World Order (1984); Louis Ren Beres, Security or Armageddon: Israels Nuclear Strategy (1986); and Louis Ren Beres, Surviving Amid Chaos: Israels Nuclear Strategy (2016).

[11]The measurable criteria of severe risk here would remain subjective. This is because the issues under examination would of necessity be unique or sui generis.

[12] The problem of such pre-delegations was examined by this author much earlier in his Apocalypse: Nuclear Catastrophe in World Politics (The University of Chicago Press, 1980) and in articles co-authored with General John T. Chain, a former Commander-in-Chief, US Strategic Air Command: See Professor Beres and General Chain: https://besacenter.org/living-iran-israels-strategic-imperative-2/ See also Louis Ren Beres and General John T. Chain, Could Israel Safely deter a Nuclear Iran? The Atlantic, August 2012; and Professor Louis Ren Beres and General John T. Chain, Israel; and Iran at the Eleventh Hour, Oxford University Press (OUP Blog), February 23, 2012. Though dealing with Israeli rather than American nuclear deterrence, these articles are fundamentally conceptual and clarify variously common analytic policy elements.

[13] Whether it is described in the Old Testament or any other major sources of ancient Western thought, chaos can be viewed as something positive, even a source of human betterment. Here, chaos is taken as that which prepares the world for all things, both sacred and profane. As its conspicuous etymology reveals, chaos further represents the yawning gulf or gap wherein nothing is as yet, but where all civilizational opportunity must inevitably originate. Appropriately, the classical German poet Friedrich Hlderlin observed: There is a desert sacred and chaotic which stands at the roots of the things and which prepares all things. Even in the pagan ancient world, the Greeks thought of such a desert as logos, which should indicate to us today that it was never presumed to be starkly random or without evident merit.

[14] Says Thomas Hobbes: But though there had never been any time wherein particular men were in a condition of war one against another, yet in all times, Kings and Persons of Sovereign Authority, because of their Independency, are in continual jealousies, and in the state and posture of Gladiators, having their weapons pointing and their eyes fixed on one another(Leviathan).

[15] In studies of world politics, rationality and irrationality have now taken on very specific meanings. More precisely, an actor (state or sub-state) is presumed determinedly rational to the extent that its leadership always values national survival more highly than any other conceivable preference or combination of conceivable preferences. Conversely, an irrational actor might not always display such a determinable preference ordering.

[16] See earlier, by this author, Louis Ren Beres, at Harvard National Security Journal (Harvard Law School): https://harvardnsj.org/2015/06/core-synergies-in-israels-strategic-planning-when-the-adversarial-whole-is-greater-than-the-sum-of-its-parts/

[17] More generally, international law is a part of US domestic law. In the precise words used by the U.S. Supreme Court in The Paquete Habana, International law is part of our law, and must be ascertained by the courts of justice of appropriate jurisdiction, as often as questions of right depending upon it are duly presented for their determination. For this purpose, where there is no treaty, and no controlling executive or legislative act or judicial decision, resort must be had to the customs and usages of civilized nations. See The Paquete Habana, 175 U.S. 677, 678-79 (1900). See also: The Lola, 175 U.S. 677 (1900); Tel-Oren v. Libyan Arab Republic, 726 F. 2d 774, 781, 788 (D.C. Cir. 1984) (per curiam) (Edwards, J. concurring) (dismissing the action, but making several references to domestic jurisdiction over extraterritorial offenses), cert. denied, 470 U.S. 1003 (1985) (concept of extraordinary judicial jurisdiction over acts in violation of significant international standardsembodied in the principle of `universal violations of international law.').

[18] See by this author, Louis Ren Beres, at The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists: https://thebulletin.org/biography/louis-rene-beres/; and Louis Ren Beres, at US Army War College, The War Room: https://warroom.armywarcollege.edu/articles/nuclear-decision-making/

[19] Observes Jose Ortega y Gassett about science (Man and Crisis, 1958): Science, by which I mean the entire body of knowledge about things, whether corporeal or spiritual, is as much a work of imagination as it is of observationThe latter is not possible without the former.

[20] The law of war, the rules of jus in bello, comprise: (1) laws on weapons; (2) laws on warfare; and (3) humanitarian rules. Codified primarily at The Hague and Geneva Conventions, these rules attempt to bring discrimination, proportionality and military necessity into all belligerent calculations. Evidence for the rule of proportionality can also be found in the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights (1966) at Art. 4. Similarly, the American Convention on Human Rights allows at Art. 27(1) such derogations in time of war, public danger or other emergency which threaten the independence or security of a party on condition of proportionality. In essence, the military principle of proportionality requires that the amount of destruction permitted must be proportionate to the importance of the objective. In contrast, the political principle of proportionality states a war cannot be just unless the evil that can reasonably be expected to ensure from the war is less than the evil that can reasonably be expected to ensue if the war is not fought. See Douglas P. Lackey, THE ETHICS OF WAR AND PEACE, 40 (1989). modified only by a subsequent norm of general international law having the same character. See: Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties, Done at Vienna, May 23, 1969. Entered into force, Jan. 27, 1980. U.N. Doc. A/CONF. 39/27 at 289 (1969), 1155 U.N.T.S. 331, reprinted in 8 I.L.M. 679 (1969).

[21]Under authoritative international law, crimes against humanity are defined as murder, extermination, enslavement, deportation, and other inhumane acts committed against any civilian population before or during a war; or persecutions on political, racial or religious grounds in execution of or in connection with any crime within the jurisdiction of the Tribunal, whether or not in violation of the domestic law of the country where perpetrated. See Charter of the International Military Tribunal, Aug. 8, 1945, Art. 6(c), 59 Stat. 1544, 1547, 82 U.N.T.S. 279, 288

[22] Says Plato: Justice is a contract neither to do nor to suffer wrong. (Republic)

[23] Neither international law nor US law specifically advises any particular penalties or sanctions for states that choose not to prevent or punish egregious crimes committed by others. Nonetheless, all states, most notably the major powers belonging to the UN Security Council, are bound, among other things, by the peremptory obligation (defined at Article 26 of the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties) known as pacta sunt servanda, to act in continuous good faith. In turn, this pacta sunt servanda obligation is itself derived from an even more basic norm of world law. Commonly known as mutual assistance, this civilizing norm was most famously identified within the classical interstices of international jurisprudence, most notably by the eighteenth-century legal scholar, Emmerich de Vattel in The Law of Nations (1758).

[24] The classic statement of Realpolitik or power politics in western philosophy is the comment of Thrasymachus in Platos Republic: Justice is nothing else than the interest of the stronger. (See Plato, The Republic, 29, Benjamin Jowett, tr., World Publishing Company, 1946.) See also: Ciceros oft-quoted query: For what can be done against force without force? Marcus Tullus Cicero, Ciceros Letters to his Friends, 78 (D.R. Shackleton Baily tr., Scholars Press, 1988).

[25] The Founding Fathers of the United States, including early presidents, were intellectuals. More precisely, as explained by American historian Richard Hofstadter: The Founding Fathers were sages, scientists, men of broad cultivation, many of them apt in classical learning, who used their wide reading in history, politics and law to solve the exigent problems of their time. See Hofstadters classic, Anti-Intellectualism in American Life (New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 1964), p. 145.

[26] Before Beat poets Lawrence Ferlinghetti, Allen Ginsberg and Jack Kerouac, there was the avant-garde of Zrich Dada, most notably Hugo Ball and Tristan Tzara. Like Beat, Dada urged an expanding relationship between life and art, one where art can not only enrich life, but help to better understand and elucidate it.

[27] Underlying the technical issues here are individual citizen identifications with sentiments of belligerent nationalism, identifications that were strongly encouraged by former US President Donald J. Trump. In the nineteenth century, in his posthumously published Lecture on Politics (1896), German historian Heinrich von Treitschke observed: Individual man sees in his own country the realization of his earthly immortality. Earlier, German philosopher Georg Friedrich Hegel opined, in his Philosophy of Right (1820), that the state represents the march of God in the world. The deification of Realpolitik, a transformation from mere principle of action to a sacred end in itself, drew its originating strength from the doctrine of sovereignty advanced in the sixteenth and seventeenth centuries. Initially conceived as a principle of internal order, this doctrine underwent a specific metamorphosis, whence it became the formal or justifying rationale for international anarchy that is, for the global state of nature. First established by Jean Bodin as a juristic concept in De Republica (1576), sovereignty came to be regarded as a power absolute and above the law. Understood in terms of modern international relations, this doctrine encouraged the notion that states lie above and beyond any form of legal regulation in their interactions with each other.

[28] The ancient Greeks and Macedonians always thought of war as a struggle of mind over mind, not just mind over matter. See F. E. Adcock, The Greek and Macedonian Art of War (1957).

Related

Read this article:
The Security Community dilemma of the European Union in Eastern Europe - Modern Diplomacy

The European Union Delivers Great News to Crypto Fans and Investors – TheStreet

The cryptocurrency community hailed a decision by a European Union committee rejecting a proposal that could have led to a ban on energy-intensive form of mining.

The European Parliament's economic and monetary affairs committee passed the proposed Markets in Crypto Assets (MiCA) framework, the EUs legislation for governing digital assets.

The committee turned down a last-minute addition to the bill that sought to limit the use of cryptocurrencies that use the proof-of-work mining process, which has beenhave been criticized by environmentalists for its energy consumption.

The measure demanded "minimum environmental sustainability standards" for crypto assets traded in the bloc.

The rule change would have meant proof-of-work crypto assets, such as bitcoin and ethereum, would likely be unable to demonstrate their alignment, given the ever-increasing computing power required to validate each transaction on the blockchain.

Formal negotiations on the draft framework will now proceed between the European commission, council and parliament.

Bitcoin was flat at $38, 769 at last check, according to CoinGecko.

"Todays MiCA vote is more than a win for crypto," Diogo Monica, co-founder and president ofAnchorage Digital,a digital asset platform, tweeted. "Its a win for the European economy and for innovation."

Monica added that "its a relief that a single misguided (but well-intentioned) provision wont derail the continents immense progress and potential. Sanityand logicprevailed."

A 2021 report from Bank of America noted that the CO2 emissions required to "mine" each transaction are at similar levels to that of Greece, a top fifty global economy, at around 60 tons, adding that an inflow of $1 billion in new bitcoin investment is the equivalent of 1.2 million internal combustion engine cars.

"Major Update on #MICA," Blockchain for Europe tweeted. "The #PoW ban has been rejected in the@Europarl_EN!!! Thank you on behalf of the industry!"

"Thats like thanking them for air," one person responded."

Patrick Hansen, head of strategy and business development with Unstoppable Finance, said that he was "more than relieved that the ECON committee voted against the ban of proof-of-work-based assets for EU companies in the end."

Scroll to Continue

"That amendment would have had dramatic consequences on the European crypto market," he said, "since it would have pushed EU consumers towards foreign, unregulated exchanges and European companies, capital, and talent out of the EU. All without a noticeable benefit to the stated goal of sustainability."

Hansen noted thateven if, in all likelihood, that amendment would not have found its way into the final agreement, "the mere symbol of the EU Parliament calling for a POW-ban would have already had a very detrimental effect on the market."

Hansen added that he glad that the majority voted in favor of the alternative amendment of rapporteur Stefan Berger, a member of the European Parliament.

"Including mining into the EU sustainability taxonomy is the better solution for addressing sustainability concerns and will hopefully contribute to more and more mining activities being carried out through a renewable-only energy mix," Hansen said.

Berger tweeted that the EU Parliament "has paved the way for innovation-friendly crypto regulation that can set standards worldwide."

"The process is not over yet," he said in German. "Steps lie ahead of us."

Alex Lemberg, CEO of Nimbus Platformsaid that "Proof of Work does have a major drain on energy, there can be no argument there."

"I look at this effort in a positive light and will leave final commentary for when the language is clearer," he said. "The alternative which has been implemented in certain regions simply called for banning of mining and that too proved to be fruitless as bans are almost always removed without any sustainable measures being implemented."

Lemberg added that "governing bodies on a global scale are beginning to understand that the crypto markets arent going away."

"The adoption of Bitcoin is at a level where having a viable replacement is very unlikely in the coming few years," he said. "Therefore an amicable and structured approach in dealing with Proof of Work has to be reached. I do believe, however, that Proof of Stake or similar will eventually become the method used across the board."

Austin Reid, chief of staff of FalconX, said "we're glad to see the European Union take steps to foster digital asset innovation."

"There are important conversations to be had on lowering the energy consumption from Proof of Work mining, but outright bans are counterproductive due to the risk they pose in pushing mining activities to regions with less rules and dirtier energy sources," he said.

Citing the White House's recent executive order, Reid added, "these decisions highlight widespread interest in digital assets, and the increasing competition among regions to maintain competitiveness on a global scale.

Originally posted here:
The European Union Delivers Great News to Crypto Fans and Investors - TheStreet