Archive for March, 2022

A former top Obama economist doesn’t think Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will cause a recession in the US – Yahoo! Voices

President Joe Biden.AP Photo/Alex Brandon

A former top Obama economist doesn't see the US sliding into a recession this year.

"I'm not much higher than 20%," Jason Furman said of his estimate of the probability of a recession.

He usually puts the odds at 15% in any given year and argues the US can ride out any energy shocks.

A former top economist in the Obama administration doesn't think that the US faces a major risk of a recession this year in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

"I'm higher, but I'm not much higher than 20%," Jason Furman, now a Harvard University professor, said in a recent interview regarding his estimate of the probability of a US recession, adding that he usually puts the odds at 15% in any given year.

"There's still room for the US economy," he said, noting that oil prices are unlikely to cut more than a half percent off economic growth. "That's a wide margin between where we are now and a recession."

The US has already imposed a bevy of sanctions to punish Russia for its invasion of Ukraine. Those punitive measures included barring all Russian oil and gas imports, along with cutting off Russian government officials and business leaders with close ties to Russian President Vladimir Putin from their assets. Congress is inching closer to revoking normal trade relations with Russia, opening the door for tariffs on its products.

Russia hasn't been a major US trade partner in recent years. The country was the US's 26th-largest trading partner in 2019, according to the Office of the US Trade Representative. Two-way trade totaled $35 billion in 2019.

Furman argues the US is well-equipped to ride out any potential economic shocks. "There's no question that we are taking risks with the American economy by trying to punish Putin," Furman said. "I also think that those risks are very likely to be manageable and are very small compared to the much bigger issues at stake."

Story continues

Other forecasters are sizing up the risks of a recession differently with high energy prices and other uncertainty stemming from war in Ukraine. Goldman Sachs analysts recently put the odds of a recession at 35%, in part because of rising oil prices.

The US economy rebounded strongly from the pandemic, adding jobs at the fastest pace in decades. Wages have skyrocketed for the bottom half of the income distribution. But inflation has reached its highest level in 40 years, the result of supply-chain bottlenecks and ongoing labor shortages. It has prompted price hikes for food, gas, housing, and used cars, and other goods.

The Federal Reserve moved on Wednesday to hike interest rates for the first time since 2018. The step increases the cost of borrowing money for everything from credit cards to mortgages, modestly increasing the price of lending to cool economic growth and tamp down inflation.

Read the original article on Business Insider

Read the original here:
A former top Obama economist doesn't think Russia's invasion of Ukraine will cause a recession in the US - Yahoo! Voices

On ‘War Criminal’ Putin, Obama-Biden Vet Says Putins Wrong But This is Not Time to Indict – MSNBC

IE 11 is not supported. For an optimal experience visit our site on another browser.

The first lady of Ukraine fights on04:06

Why Putin faces three basic choices in Ukraine11:39

Jeh Johnson: Biden WH is being tested on how far they will go in Ukraine04:44

Kharkiv's remaining residents resort to living underground to survive04:49

U.S. sending Soviet air defense systems to Ukraine forces11:10

Russian supplies running out as air attacks increase, Ukrainian military says05:03

Russian forces reportedly shoot at peaceful protesters01:30

Ukraine forces reclaim Kyiv suburb01:09

Means of sustaining life in Mariupol dwindle for those unable to flee Russian bombing02:49

Putin's anti-NATO rampage backfires as neutral countries look for protection06:10

Putin's brutality incurs the hatred of formerly pro-Russian Ukrainians: Engel06:59

Ukraine rejects Russias ultimatums06:40

NATO warns of stalemate02:29

Gessen: Many Russians feel they 'didn't do enough' to stop Putin's invasion06:39

Sen. Klobuchar: Ukrainians are determined to resist Putins invasion02:57

Ukraine now is the battleground for the whole free world former Ukrainian MP says06:11

Now Playing

On 'War Criminal' Putin, Obama-Biden Vet Says Putins Wrong But This is Not Time to Indict07:49

UP NEXT

'Slow-motion disaster': War in Ukraine threatens to cause global food shortage06:45

Gillibrand on meeting with Ukrainian refugees: Ive never seen more resilience04:54

Residents fight for survival in Mariupol04:48

A NATO official said the war in Ukraine is on the verge of a stalemate. President Biden is pushing that Putin is a war criminal for his attacks on civilians in Ukraine. I dont believe its in our national interest to seek an indictment right now because at one point, hopefully, in this war President Putin will have to negotiate with President Zelenskyy, Michael McFaul, former U.S. ambassador to Russia, said about Bidens comments in his discussion about the latest in Ukraine and Russia with MSNBCs Ari Melber.March 22, 2022

UP NEXT

The first lady of Ukraine fights on04:06

Why Putin faces three basic choices in Ukraine11:39

Jeh Johnson: Biden WH is being tested on how far they will go in Ukraine04:44

Kharkiv's remaining residents resort to living underground to survive04:49

U.S. sending Soviet air defense systems to Ukraine forces11:10

Russian supplies running out as air attacks increase, Ukrainian military says05:03

The rest is here:
On 'War Criminal' Putin, Obama-Biden Vet Says Putins Wrong But This is Not Time to Indict - MSNBC

Babylon Bee’s Twitter Resistance Is A Lesson In Taking On Tech Tyrants – The Federalist

Twitter maliciously nuked The Babylon Bees account over the weekend for poking fun at the leftist medias elevation of biological men as women of the year but the popular satire site isnt giving into Big Techs demands that it delete true statements.

The Babylon Bee was first locked out of its account on Sunday after it posted an article claiming The Babylon Bees Man of the Year is Rachel Levine. The article simply pointed out that a male is a male and that awarding the male United States Assistant Secretary for Health an award designed for women is absurd, but Twitter rushed to shut down the page under its hateful conduct policy.

You may not promote violence against, threaten, or harass other people on the basis of race, ethnicity, national origin, sexual orientation, gender, gender identity, religious affiliation, age, disability, or serious disease, Twitter claimed.

Twitter demanded that the Bees creators delete the tweet or risk being indefinitely banned from posting, liking, or commenting.

Babylon Bee CEO Seth Dillon could have easily ordered his team to comply with Twitter, delete the tweet, and restore the account, which has 1.3 million followers and generates thousands of likes every day. Instead, he publicly proclaimed that the Bee would not censor itself to gain approval from and access to the leftist platform.

Were not deleting anything. Truth is not hate speech. If the cost of telling the truth is the loss of our Twitter account, then so be it, Dillon wrote.

Before Twitter waged a war on the Bee, Facebook tried to demonetize the satire site in 2020 forspoofing Sen. Mazie Hironos commentsduring the Amy Coney Barrett hearings because the social media oligarchs claimed it incited violence.

Once again, instead of caving to Facebooks demands that the Bee edit out parts of the article that the Zuckerberg company deemed problematic, the Bees creators sacrificed its Facebook-based income to stand by the article.

Theyre asking us to edit the article and not speak publicly about internal content reviews. Oops, did I just tweet this? Dillon tweeted.

In the same thread, he clarified that we will not be editing the article to get our pages monetization reinstated.

Its a lesson that every conservative on Twitter and other tech platforms needs to learn.

Twitter is a historically bad and partisan actor that knowingly suppresses true information. Just this week, The New York Times stealthily admitted that the Hunter Biden laptop story, which was collectively throttled by the propaganda press and Big Tech oligarchs, is indeed legitimate. When the New York Post first reported on Hunters corruption in October 2020, Twitter was the first company to lock the Posts account and quash anyone who tried to interact with the article.

Science shows men and women are different. Any claims by Rachel Levine, swimmer Lia Thomas, or the industries that willfully erase womens spaces to accommodate science-denying men are bogus and deserve to be called out. The Bee did the right thing by standing up for truth, and anyone who wants to preserve it must do the same.

Big Tech companies will force you into doing and saying whatever they want if you dont object. Psychologist Jordan Peterson, who resigned from his tenured position at the University of Toronto due to increasing wokeness, said as much about the tyranny that has dominated public policy for the last two years.

Things get to terrible places one tiny step at a time, Peterson explained. Im going to encroach right to the point where you start to protest, then Im going to stop. And Im going to wait. Then youre going to come down. Then Im going to encroach again right to the point where you protest, and Im going to stop. Then Im going to wait. And Im just going to do that forever, and before you know it youre going to be back three miles from where you started and youll have done it one step at a time. I pushed you a little farther than you should have gone and you agreed.

Refusing to cede fundamental ground to Twitter in the battle for truth wont stop you from getting censored, suppressed, or even banned. But it wont allow Twitter to redefine norms one tiny step at a time. If your account is under attack from Twitter, take a lesson from The Babylon Bee.

As Dillon said: Never censor yourself. Insist that 2 and 2 make 4 even if Twitter tries to compel you to say otherwise. Make them ban tens of millions of us.

Jordan Boyd is a staff writer at The Federalist and co-producer of The Federalist Radio Hour. Her work has also been featured in The Daily Wire and Fox News. Jordan graduated from Baylor University where she majored in political science and minored in journalism. Follow her on Twitter @jordangdavidson.

Original post:
Babylon Bee's Twitter Resistance Is A Lesson In Taking On Tech Tyrants - The Federalist

How Poilievre Is Reinventing Right-Wing Politicking – TheTyee.ca

In late February, Pierre Poilievre shared a video about the Ukraine crisis to his more than 211,000 followers on YouTube. It had been just days since Vladimir Putin ordered Russian troops across the border, and over a montage of video clips appearing to be from the invasion, the Tory MP attempted to blame what was happening on Prime Minister Justin Trudeaus climate change policies, which he contrasted with his own newly announced campaign to become the Conservative partys next leader.

Curious about what our journalism accomplished and how were progressing? Dive in.

One reader will get two tickets to the exclusive event, plus snacks, drinks and more.

Every time Trudeau kills a Canadian energy project, the dirty dictators like Venezuelas Maduro or Russias Putin do a victory dance, Poilievre said in the video, which has now been viewed more than 132,000 times. Elect me, Poilievre promised to his 511,000 followers on Facebook, where he reposted the video, and it would be Canadian oil and gas producers doing the dancing. As prime minister I will reject Trudeaus anti-energy laws, he said.

Of course, Putins decision to invade Russias neighbour had nothing to do with the oilsands or pipelines. But Poilievre seized his chance, using the winds of war to bear aloft his domestic political message.

The next day, an op-ed by Poilievre containing these same talking points appeared in the Post Millennial, a Montreal-based site that describes itself as one of the largest conservative news outlets in the world, and whose editor-at-large Andy Ngo has been called a right-wing troll by Rolling Stone.

Poilievres op-ed, which was entitled Canadian natural gas is the solution to Europes Russian energy crisis, was that day reposted on Canada Proud, a Conservative party-linked Facebook group that has over 394,000 followers. That page reached potentially millions of people earlier this year with posts cheering on the anti-vaccine convoy in Ottawa, Facebook ad data suggests, despite evidence linking the convoys leaders to hate groups.

Two days later, True North, a conservative media outlet founded by former Toronto Sun columnist Candice Malcolm, which has deemed the Trudeau government tyrannical and accused CBC of spreading fake news, reported admiringly on Poilievres plan to scrap Canadas carbon tax if he is ever elected prime minister. That piece was shared on Facebook to True Norths 185,000 followers and was echoed by similarly appreciative posts about Poilievres opposition to climate regulations on the pages Elect Conservatives (85,000 followers) and Oil Sands Strong (155,000 followers).

As Poilievre attains frontrunner status in the Conservative leadership race, Canadian media outlets have focused on his relative youth, his attack-dog qualities, his fiscal conservatism, his interest in cryptocurrency and whether his populist approach Poilievre took selfies with convoy members in Ottawa and called them bright, joyful and peaceful Canadians will help or harm his campaign.

But these accounts have overlooked a key reason for Poilievres recent surge.

Poilievre is skilled at creating personally branded internet content, which is then pushed out to millions of Canadians through a tightly-linked network of social media pages and online personalities, often bypassing traditional media outlets entirely. These are techniques commonly used by Instagram or YouTube stars. Poilievre appears to be adapting them to right-wing politics.

Hes definitely got an influencer kind of vibe, Ben Woodfinden, a conservative political commentator based in Ottawa who contributes to outlets like the Hub and National Post, told The Tyee. In this new media environment, whatever you want to call it, that we find ourselves in I suspect hes not too interested in having approving op-eds in the Globe and Mail.

Poilievre didnt respond to an interview request from The Tyee.

If Poilievre becomes Conservative leader, expect him to transform how politics are retailed in Canada. He will have shown the way to win is by tapping into an alternative online ecosystem whose most prominent players flood peoples feeds with posts questioning COVID restrictions, calling the mainstream media corrupt, demanding the immediate resignation of Trudeau and asking the government to do everything possible to accelerate the production of climate-warming oil and gas.

There is a huge amount of potential support that can come from this network if they decide to get behind you, Caroline Orr Bueno, a behavioural scientist and freelance journalist whos written extensively about online disinformation, told The Tyee. Poilievres tactics might be effective, she argued, but the political consequences are chilling, because he is changing what is fair game for discourse by mainstream politicians. The Overton window is a name for what is reasonable to publically discuss.

Any time an extreme idea gets brought into the mainstream, youre kind of shifting the whole Overton window, so that if extreme becomes mainstream, then even more extreme ideas get brought in, said Orr Bueno.

Poilievre has been testing methods of self-promotion for some time. Back in 2015, he was the subject of minor controversy over a series of YouTube videos he starred in promoting the Stephen Harper governments child-care policies. In one video, Poilievre, who was then Conservative employment minister, walks around having impromptu conversations with people attending a consignment sale at an Ottawa arena, saying at one point We believe that the real child-care experts are mom and dad.

Opposition parties attacked Poilievre for using taxpayer funds to create vanity videos. But Poilievre refused to make any apologies and the whole thing soon blew over. Seven years later, it appears Poilievre was just early to the trend of using social media to spread a political brand, a tactic now used by everyone from NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh to Democratic congressperson Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.

In a recent video posted to his YouTube account Poilievre is seen filling up a minivan at a snowy Toronto gas station where prices are over $2 per litre. I have a common sense plan to tackle these high prices, which includes getting rid of the carbon tax, Poilievre says, disregarding the fact that prices are skyrocketing primarily because of COVID-linked disruptions and Putins invasion of Ukraine, not Canadian climate policies or that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change recently put out a major report warning that if we do not rapidly get greenhouse gas emissions under control more than three billion lives worldwide could be at stake. Yet the video has over 216,000 views.

I really like Pierre. It seems like he honestly just wants to fix this shit, one YouTube commentor wrote of Poilievres $123.74 gasoline bill. Another added, I love how Pierre used the cheapest grade of fuel just like the common man.

The online performance of relatability is part of a deliberate strategy used by social media influencers, which in recent years has been adapted by high-profile conservatives to market a series of increasingly far-right positions, according to a 2018 report from the U.S. think tank Data & Society. Rather than stressing institutional credibility, political influencers highlight how relatable and accessible they are to their audiences, reads the report, which is entitled Alternative Influence: Broadcasting the Reactionary Right on YouTube.

These content creators use collaborations with other influencers and responses to audience feedback to cultivate a sense of loyalty, it adds.

Evidence of Poilievre collaborating with like-minded political brands could be seen in March 2021, when he posted a photo of himself on Facebook out for a walk with his daughter. In the photo, which currently has 20,000 likes, hes wearing a black hoodie that displays the logo for Oil Sands Strong, a pro-oil and gas Facebook group created by Fort McMurray marketer Robbie Picard.

Since the logo includes a raised fist, the Carleton Federal Liberal Association in Poilievres riding saw an opportunity to attack. Poilievre sure loves this hoodie, it tweeted. Does he deny climate change? And whats with the clenched white fist, a white supremacy symbol? Really? But it was a strategic blunder that activated Poilievres social media allies.

Oil Sands Strongs Picard, who is Mtis, posted a photo of himself with two Black women: Amazing night out with my two best ladies! Poilievre then reposted that photo with a caption demanding the Liberal association apologize. The tweet disparaged Fort Mac and falsely alleged racism, he said. The episode was ignored by mainstream media outlets, but covered extensively in True North, the Post Millennial and Rebel News, the far-right outlet created by Ezra Levant which has 321,000 Facebook followers.

An Alberta-based site called the Buffalo Tribune (15,800 followers) hosted a 47-minute Facebook interview with Picard about the Liberal tweet. The fist represents solidarity, said Picard, who didnt respond to an interview request from The Tyee.

Transitioning to the bigger picture, Picard described as nonsense to Buffalo Tribune host Rob Boutilier the idea that someone would criticize the climate impacts of the oilsands, not noting that they are one of Canadas largest and fastest growing sources of greenhouse gas emissions. Wind and solar, Picard argued incorrectly, are just as damaging to the environment: Theres no such thing as green energy.

By that point the Carleton Federal Liberal Association had deleted the tweet about Poilievre. It didnt reply to a media request from The Tyee.

Last November, the Buffalo Tribunes Boutilier posted a Facebook video to his 77,000 followers entitled Society demanding I get vaccinated is a load of bullshxt. As the Omicron surge took off, leading to record case counts across Canada, his site posted articles dismissive of disease prevention measures. When anti-vaxers set up a GoFundMe for a trucker protest in Ottawa that January, the Buffalo Tribune showed people how to donate. And weeks into the convoys occupation of the capital, during which some protesters displayed confederate flags and swastikas, the site shared on Facebook legal resources for truckers facing charges.

As in Canadas mainstream media, the so-called freedom convoy was major news across the countrys right-wing social media ecosystem. Sites such as the Post Millennial, True North and Rebel News posted story after story praising the demonstration. Canada Proud blitzed its followers with memes and posts. In the midst of it all, Poilievre met with protesters and posed in front of a sign saying Stocked shelves, thank a trucker. Empty shelves, thank Trudeau.

To some commentators this was political suicide. By aligning with the convoy, Poilievre repels most Canadians, Randy Boswell argued on iPolitics. But on far-right social media feeds Poilievre was treated like a hero. Shortly after appearing at the convoy, Poilievre gave a speech in the House of Commons attacking Trudeau for calling out Nazi symbolism among the Ottawa occupiers. Poilievre posted a video of the speech to his Facebook page with the hashtag #TruckersNotTrudeau.

It was soon being repackaged and spread across social media. MUST WATCH: Conservative MP Pierre Poilievre SLAMS Trudeau for falsely claiming the trucker convoy is racist, read an early February headline on the Post Millennial. Canada Proud reposted the story, with a caption questioning Trudeaus moral authority to call others racist.

Id say that there is likely no small measure of political opportunism in politicians like Poilievre harmonizing their political rhetoric with operations like Canada Proud, Shane Gunster, a communications professor at Simon Fraser University who studies Canadas right-wing digital platforms, told The Tyee. Those platforms have significant reach and deep resonance in parts of the conservative base that politicians like Poilievre are keen to reach.

Canada Proud is now making regular posts trashing Poilievres competitors in the Conservative leadership race. Things that belong in the '90s, reads one recent meme with photos of a Sony Walkman, a brightly coloured ski jacket and Tory leadership candidate Jean Charest. Poilievres opposition to COVID restrictions has helped win him the support of right-wing mega-influencer Jordan Peterson, who tweeted to his 2.4 million followers in January that Poilievre is a Canadian politician who appears both courageous and articulate. (Two weeks later, Peterson went on Joe Rogans podcast, where he mocked climate activists and questioned if the climate emergency is real.)

Polls now suggest Poilievre is the frontrunner among Conservative voters. He is very popular with the partisan base, Woodfinden said. It really is his to lose.

In mid-March, Poilievre posted a video to YouTube of him taking a selfie with a security guard named J.R. Were legalizing the smile, eh? Poilievre says with his hand on the guards shoulder. Were gonna give Canadians back control of their lives, right J.R.? The video feels spontaneous and unscripted, casting a career politician who wants to eliminate climate-stabilizing taxes on Canadas largest oil and gas companies as a man of the people.

Keep it up Pierre! someone commented. Lets take back this country.

See original here:
How Poilievre Is Reinventing Right-Wing Politicking - TheTyee.ca

Hackers Access Client Data on Bitcoin (BTC) Investing Platforms Following Third-Party Breach – The Daily Hodl

Two notable players in the crypto investing space are responding after a malicious actor gained access to customer data through internet marketing company HubSpot.

Among the over two dozen HubSpot clients affected was the crypto lending platform BlockFi, which took to Twitter to inform customers about the extent of the data breach and what users can do to protect their data.

HubSpot has confirmed that an unauthorized third-party gained access to certain BlockFi client data housed on their platform.

BlockFis internal systems and client funds are safeguarded and were not impacted. We can also confirm that BlockFi account passwords, government-issued ID numbers and social security numbers were never stored on HubSpot.

BlockFi encourages strong passwords and enabling two-factor authorization to protect against phishing and hacks.

Also impacted by the HubSpot data breach was Bitcoin (BTC) investing and savings platform Swan Bitcoin.

CEO Cory Klippsten also shared details about the situation via Twitter,saying,

A bad actor gained access to HubSpot data after a HubSpot employee account was compromised.

We use HubSpot for limited client communication and marketing data. We do not use HubSpot to store financial information, transactions, or other sensitive personal or financial information.

Your funds are safe. Your Bitcoin is not at risk. Swans systems were not compromised.

Customer information that was possibly exposed includes personal names, email addresses and phone numbers.

Klippsten also encourages customers to practice vigilance to safeguard their accounts and passwords from potential malicious interference.

Featured Image: Shutterstock/Maxim Marinkovskiy/Konstantin Faraktinov

See the article here:
Hackers Access Client Data on Bitcoin (BTC) Investing Platforms Following Third-Party Breach - The Daily Hodl