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It is not improbable that we will face a second big migration crisis after the coronavirus pandemic, Monika Sie Dhian Ho believes.

Monika Sie Dhian Ho is the general director of Clingendael, the Netherlands Institute of International Relations.

Clingendael is an independent think tank and academy on international affairs and diplomacy which seeks to shape a more secure, sustainable and just world. It has traditionally had an impact on the shaping of foreign policy in the Netherlands whilst Sie advises the Dutch government on security and foreign affairs matters.

In an interview with Kathimerini, Sie warns about a possible incoming migration crisis due to the financial repercussions that Covid-19 will eventually leave behind. She maintains that a closer relationship between the European Union and neighboring Turkey will be beneficial to both parties in dealing with a hard future on migration and, finally, she expresses her belief that the EU is still not ready to intercept new migration waves confidently.

Countries such as Hungary, Austria and the Netherlands have refused to take in any significant number of migrants. The EU hasnt been able politically or legally to enforce a fair distribution of migrants across its member-states. Whats the reason behind such a failure?

We find ourselves in a situation whereby every country has something to complain about. Since the migration crisis began in 2015, we have not managed to reform our institutions, we have not made the EU more resilient to crises. After big crises you would expect that this reform would take place like it did on the economic front. The different interests of EU members have to do with differences in location; at one point the Dutch PM said that its due to geographical bad luck. This will not do on the negotiation table of course you cannot say that in a union you have a geographical bad luck and I hope that our PM knows that by now. Yes, there are differences in where the migrants want to go and in the economic situation of the different EU countries but we have not come up with an intelligent plan yet. The Commissions pact is a positive first step and is responsive to the interests of the different EU members. Our advice is that there is urgency to act now. We need an internal grand deal as well as an external bargain with third countries of origin. We need to build trust that the internal and external bargains are feasible through actively showing that the deals are made out of sincerity and common values.

Weve seen that this geographical bad luck rhetoric and attitude has prevailed on the migration issue. If it persists, will it weaken the EU?

Yes, that the EU will become weaker is the starting point of discussion. What will happen then is that countries in the front line will not be capable or willing to register incoming migrants. I think the Northern countries have come to understand that this fundamental injustice will not hold. If they hold on to this position, they know that they will face waves of secondary movements. So, they understand that a new internal deal is absolutely necessary. The Netherlands is well aware that the Dublin system needs reform and that relocation of migrants is necessary. The pandemic makes this challenge even harder.

How are Covid-19 and migration linked?

In African countries the health consequences of the pandemic have been less intense than in Europe. However, the economic consequences are devastating. Migrants lose their jobs abroad due to the pandemic and send in less remittances. The oil shocks created by the pandemic impose economic obstacles and the aftershocks of the disease pushthese countries into deeper crises. African migration has increased despite the pandemic. For example, irregular departures from Tunisia to Italy have significantly increased. Therere severe economic migrant crises created by the pandemic combined with potential political crises also triggered by Covid-19. It is not improbable that we will face a second big migration crisis after the disease. In 2011, we had the Arabic Spring due to unemployment and in Syria we had a war. This was the runup of the refugee crisis of 2015. The Arab Spring itself was the runup of the 2008 economic crisis. The Covid-19 crisis is expected to potentially be even more severe so Europe needs to become truly robust on migration policy now to overcome a hard future on this front.

Turkey is Greeces neighbor but also the EUs. What is the impact of the quality of our relationship with Turkey on the migrantswelfare?

Turkey hosts almost 4 million refugees. The EU is not willing to welcome those 4 million refugees, they prefer that these refugees remain in Turkey. Turkey is ready to receive them, and there children can go to school and parents can find jobs. The EU members contribute by paying those organizations in Turkey that facilitate these migrant populations. The migrants deserve these funds. Of course, the consequence of this is that countries like Turkey but also Morocco and Tunisia find out that they get leverage in their relationship against EU countries. We have to arrive on a partnership that is based much more on common interest and equality in the relationship. Specifically, what we need to do is twofold: Firstly, we need to continue offering Turkey the financial means to keep on sending migrant kids to school, and secondly, it is of high importance that we build a tracing mechanism to ensure that the funds we offer to Turkey end up benefiting the migrants solely.

It seems that migrant populations integrate better in the US than they do in Europe. We have seen that recently they have wreaked havoc in Austria and in France. How do you explain this reality? Are we witnessing a clash of civilizations?

The emphasis on work in the United States has been a key factor for migrant integration. People are welcome to work and they find work almost immediately after arrival. Work is a crucial aspect to integration. Secondly, what also plays a role is that the EU has not emphasized adequately what the European Way of Life is. The EC, by appointing Margaritis Schinas as VP, has acknowledged that there exists a European way of life which we want to protect, defend and develop. When welcoming a migrant, it is important that you explain to them clearly what this way of life is so that person knows how to behave and integrate. The key values of our society need explanation, therefore work and clarity about the societal model are significant factors for integration. Without rules and transparency, problems are unavoidable.

Link:
Europe could face another big migration wave after the pandemic, STEFANOS TSAKIRIS | Kathimerini - http://www.ekathimerini.com

SAN PEDRO SULA, Honduras (AP) Nory Yamileth Hernndez and her three teenage children have been living in a battered tent under a bridge on the outskirts of San Pedro Sula since Hurricane Eta flooded their home in November.

They were there in the dust under the rumbling traffic, surrounded by other storm refugees, when Hurricane Iota hit barely two weeks later. And when the first migrant caravan of the year shuffled by in January, only fear and empty pockets kept them from joining Honduras growing exodus.

I cried because I dont want to be here anymore, the 34-year-old Hernndez said. She had joined the first big caravan in October 2018, but didnt make it to Mexico before turning back. Shes sure she will try again soon. Theres a lot of suffering.

WATCH: Biden rolls back Trumps immigration policies with a raft of initiatives

In San Pedro Sula, Honduras economic engine and the departure gate for thousands of Honduran migrants in recent years, families like Hernndezs are caught in a cycle of migration. Poverty and gang violence push them out and increasingly aggressive measures to stop them, driven by the United States government, scuttle their efforts and send them back.

The economic damage of the COVID-19 pandemic and the devastation wrought by Novembers hurricanes have only added to those driving forces. Word of a new administration in the U.S. with a softer approach to migrants has raised hopes, too.

After her failed attempt to migrate in 2018, Hernndez returned to scraping out a living in San Pedro Sula. Last year, she sold lingerie door-to-door in one of the countrys most dangerous neighborhoods. But the storms wiped out her inventory and her customers had limited ability to pay her for items they bought on credit.

I couldnt charge people because we all lost, Hernndez said. We all have needs, but you have to be sensitive. They dont have anything to pay with and why go to collect?

Chamelecon is a neighborhood of low, tin-roofed houses and small shops with barred windows on the outskirts of the city. Only two of its streets are paved, including one that is the dividing line between the rival gangs Mara Salvatrucha and Barrio 18.

At the bridge where Hernndezs tent is pitched, tattooed youths smoke marijuana and residents slop around in rubber boots. The violence continues, with newspapers talking about finding bodies wrapped in plastic.

In December, Hernndez got sick with fever, nausea and, she said, her brain hurt. She went to a hospital, but was never tested for COVID-19. In January, her eldest son writhed in their tent with fever.

The father of her youngest son lives in Los Angeles and encouraged her to get money together for another trip. He told me that this year is going to be good because they had gotten rid of Trump and the new president was going to help migrants, Hernndez said.

Within weeks, U.S. President Joe Biden signed nine executive orders reversing Trump measures related to family separation, border security and immigration. But fearing a surge in immigration, the administration also sent the message that little will change quickly for migrants arriving at the southern U.S. border.

Hernndez recently found work cleaning flooded streets, but she still hasnt been able to tackle the house where she once lived with 11 others. Its still filled with several inches of mud and foul water.

The assembly plants that surround San Pedro Sula and power its economy are still not back to pre-hurricane capacity amid the pandemic.

The Sula Valley, Honduras most agriculturally productive, was so heavily damaged that international organizations have warned of a food crisis. The World Food Program says 3 million Hondurans face food insecurity, six times higher than before. The dual hurricanes affected an estimated 4 million of Honduras 10 million people. The area is also Honduras hardest-hit by COVID-19 infections.

Its a vicious cycle, said Dana Graber Ladek, head of the International Organization for Migration office in Mexico. Theyre suffering poverty, violence, the hurricanes, unemployment, domestic violence, and with that dream of a new (U.S.) administration, of new opportunities, theyre going to try (to migrate) again and again.

The last several attempted caravans have been foiled, first in Mexico and later in Guatemala, but the daily flow of migrants moved by smugglers continues and has shown signs of increasing. The hope and misinformation associated with the new U.S. administration helps that business too.

The traffickers are using this opportunity of desperation, of political changes in the United States to spread rumors and false information, Graber Ladek said.

In January, San Pedro Sula was abuzz with plans to migrate.

READ MORE: DOJ rescinds zero tolerance immigration rule

Gabriela, 29, feeling like she had nothing to lose, went north just days before a few thousand Hondurans headed out of San Pedro Sula on Jan. 15. She had lost her cleaning job in the pandemic and the rest of her life to the hurricanes. She asked that her full name be withheld because she had made it to southern Mexico and feared being targeted.

Gabriela paid a smuggler, paid off authorities along her route and walked through jungle as part of her journey north.

She had lived in La Lima, a suburb of San Pedro Sula. Small businesses there have begun to reopen, but in outlying neighborhoods, the streets are still full of debris, dead animals, snakes and burning mattresses.

Everyone wanted to leave, said Juan Antonio Ramrez, an elderly resident. His children and grandchildren were among some 30 people who spent six days stranded on a corrugated metal roof surrounded by floodwaters in November. A lot of people went from here, but they all came back. The problem is theres a barrier and they send them back from Guatemala.

After the 2018 caravans and rising number of migrants at the U.S. border in early 2019, the U.S. government pressured Mexico and Central American countries to do more to slow migration across their territories. Numbers fell in the latter half of 2019 and Mexico and Guatemala effectively stopped caravans in 2020. In December, a caravan leaving San Pedro Sula didnt even make it out of Honduras.

But the U.S. has reported a rising number of encounters at the border, showing that beyond the caravans, the migration flow is increasing again.

In September, Lisethe Contreras husband made it to Miami. The La Lima resident said it took him three months and $12,000 paid to smugglers. Shes thinking of going too, but for the moment has her small business selling necessities.

Biden has promised investment in Central America to get at the root causes of immigration, but no one expects to see any change soon. Honduras primary elections are scheduled for March and nongovernmental organizations worry any aid will come with political strings attached.

Hernndez admits confusion and disillusion. I dont know. They all promise and then dont follow through, she said. I dont see a good future here.

Gabriela, already halfway to her goal of reaching the U.S., has no thoughts of turning back, even after 19 people, believed to be mostly Guatemalan migrants, were found shot and burned in northern Mexico just across from Texas.

I only go back to Honduras if Immigration sends me back, she said. And if that happens Ill try again with my son.

See more here:
Desperation grows in battered Honduras, fueling migration - PBS NewsHour

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LIMA When President Ivn Duque announced that Colombia would grant the approximately 1.7 million Venezuelan migrants and refugees in the country complementary protection and legal status for a decade, the international response was swift and positive. The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, Filippo Grandi, called the surprise Feb. 9 decision historic and said it was one of the regions most important humanitarian gestures in decades. This decision will save lives, said former U.S. President Bill Clinton.

Neighboring governments should pay close attention. The move is both bold and remarkable, given that Colombia hosts the highest number of Venezuelan migrants in the world. It could set a precedent for leadership in neighboring countries where efforts to regularize Venezuelans have been uneven or are under threat. Colombias goodwill also offers an alternative to rising xenophobia, seen, for example, in recent legislation proposed in Peru, the militarization of borders between Ecuador, Peru and Chile, and the rhetoric from political figures and presidential candidates across the region.

Colombias openness to Venezuelans hails in part from a sense of reciprocity many remember how other countries settled Colombians fleeing the violence of the 1980s and 90s. But its approach is also a pragmatic one: The government acknowledges that it cannot stop the inflow of its desperate neighbors. By registering all undocumented Venezuelans in the country, Colombia will increase its control in the interest of policy planning and national security, allowing substantial fiscal savings as well.

The Temporary Protective Status program will also free nearly a million Venezuelans who hold a confusing variety of temporary visas from regularly having to reapply for permissions a bureaucratic mess that hasnt stopped the flow of migrants into the country. This approach could be a template for other governments seeking to regularize Venezuelans living in their countries.

Of the approximately 5.4 million people who have fled violence, hyperinflation, political oppression, and food and medicine shortages in Venezuela, the lions share live in Colombia and across neighboring countries where governments have chosen ad hoc policy measures that initially regularized many, but left hundreds of thousands with no or only precarious legal status.

In Peru, for example, migration authorities have initiated a preregistration process for an upcoming regularization program, following a similar registration in Ecuador. The process intends to mitigate the negative effects of a series of prior short-term and thus unsustainable responses. However, the scope of this regularization remains somewhat unclear and some requirements, such as high fines for those who have been with irregular status for some time, will be difficult if not impossible to meet.

Theres also an economic argument for a robust regularization program, which in Peru, for example, could add some $3.2 billion in fiscal income, according to Paula Rossiasco, a senior expert on social policy at the World Bank. Venezuelan migrants, who are disproportionally more educated than locals, provide a boost to the economy if they are free to work legally.

Furthermore, Colombias plan could be a roadmap for securing funding from international partners who want to work with governments that are serious about protecting those fleeing Venezuelas humanitarian, economic and political crises. Even before the pandemic, the Colombian governments generous approach had been more successful than others in raising funds from international donors. In 2018 and 2019, Colombia, which hosts 37% of the Venezuelan migrants and refugees living in Latin America, attracted approximately 45% of the funds that the region received to help cover the costs of Venezuelan displacement.

Despite this, Venezuelan migration has become an increasingly politicized domestic policy issue in Ecuador, Peru, and Chile, leading to a shift towards restrictive policy reactions and de facto border closures for Venezuelans, even before COVID-19. In January, Peru sent military tanks to its border with Ecuador to stop the entry of Venezuelans, prompting concern from Amnesty International. Members of Perus congress have introduced a flurry of xenophobic bills, but none of these efforts have had the desired effect of halting the forced displacement of Venezuelans. They rather have pushed migrants and refugees towards more dangerous routes and into the arms of migrant smuggling and human trafficking rings. Chile, which recently passed a controversial new immigration law, recently deported a first group of migrants to Venezuela on a military plane in the midst of the pandemic.

Unfortunately, the kind of political will seen in Colombia, is in short supply among neighbor governments, who are either preoccupied with winning elections, or trying to win the upper hand on the COVID-19 pandemic. According to a lawmaker from his party, Perus transitional President Francisco Sagasti is focusing on securing vaccinations, controlling the pandemic, protecting the economy and ensuring free elections, and he considers any significant decisions in the area of immigration governance as the responsibility and competence of the next government.

Ahead of the countrys presidential election on April 11, immigration and xenophobia have played a role in the media and in campaigns, and many candidates have promised decisive if not authoritarian measures against immigrants while fueling the myths that migrants have increased crime and are responsible for the spread of COVID-19 in their host communities. The man leading the polls, George Forsyth, although born in Venezuela himself to Chilean and Peruvian parents, spoke out against what he called Venezuelan mafias when he was mayor of a Lima municipality and has described Venezuelans as a threat during his campaign.

In Ecuador, leftist presidential hopeful Andrs Arauz, who won the first round of Ecuadors presidential election with about 32% of the vote, was asked in a TV interview in December whether he would allow more Venezuelans to settle in Ecuador. No, our priority is to serve the Ecuadorian people, he responded. Arauzs political mentor, former President Rafael Correa, refused to recognize Venezuelas humanitarian crisis for political reasons. This rendered it politically impossible to recognize migrants as refugees or in need of special protection.

In Peru, it is still too early to make predictions about the election outcome. In either case, xenophobia and the increasing politicization of the topic, together with limited state capacity, will likely continue to challenge sustainable approaches to managing and successfully integrating Venezuelan migrants and refugees in years to come. But, as Colombia shows, another way forward is possible.

Luisa Feline Freier is an associate professor and researcher focused on migration issues at Perus Universidad del Pacfico

Any opinions expressed in this piece do not necessarily reflect those of Americas Quarterly or its publishers.

Continue reading here:
Colombia Went Big on Migration. Will Others Follow? - Americas Quarterly

Libya's weak new government needs to strike a deal with strongman Haftar to stay afloat.

A businessman with Gaddafi regime ties, Abdelhamid Debaiba defied the odds when a UN-led dialogue chose him as prime minister earlier this month, despite French and Egyptian backing for a rival list led by the east Libyan parliament speaker Aguileh Saleh and west Libyan interior minister Fathi Bashagha. One powerbroker, however, breathed a sigh of relief. Khalifa Haftar, the military commander who launched a devastating war on Tripoli in 2019 only to be defeated and increasingly marginalised, was back in the saddle.

Haftars life long ambition to take control of the country had ended embarrassingly, with his troops fleeing from Tripoli after weeks of Turkish drone strikes in May 2020. Russia and Egypt, which had both backed his offensive, pushed forward Haftars grudging ally Saleh as the main representative in the east. Haftar had unsuccessfully tried to sideline Saleh just a few months before the end of the war by assuming overall political command of the east.

READ MORE Libya: After five years at the helm, PM Sarraj having trouble letting go

Instead, he was summoned to Cairo with Saleh in June 2020 to endorse a ceasefire and political initiative by the parliament speaker. Back in his headquarters in Rajma, Haftar stewed as Saleh took the lead and floundered about for a response. In one meeting with Russian officials that left them in shock, Haftar threatened to launch another offensive, this time targeting Misrata, officials briefed on the encounter told The Africa Report.

With Salehs loss, and the victory of a relatively weak president and prime minister known for striking opportunistic deals and who will need Haftars support to succeed, the field marshal now finds himself kingmaker again.

73 delegates cast their ballots in the the dialogue to elect a new temporary unity government that would replace the internationally recognised one in the west, and the Haftar-aligned prime minister in the east, until elections in December 2021. The delegates representing Haftar were instructed to cast their ballots for Debaiba when his list and Salehs made it to the second round of voting, says Mohamed Eljarh, a Libya expert and head of the Libya Outlook for Research and Consulting think tank.

READ MORE Libya: How Colonel Gaddafi continues to haunt the living

Salehs list, in which he was the candidate for president while Bashagha contended for the premiership, narrowly lost by five votes. The combination of the two attracted opposition from vested interests in Tripoli and western Libya that opposed the interior ministers security reform agenda that targeted powerful militias, and Salehs role in supporting the war on the capital. Haftar and his supporters, meanwhile, feared to be further sidelined.

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A Bashagha list represented an existential threat to the armed groups in Tripoli and to Haftar. One of the reasons it was an existential threat to Haftar was widespread international consensus (supporting the Bashagha-Saleh) list, and because Haftar was already being sidelined by the fact that Aguileh Saleh became the primary interlocutor for the east since the end of the war, says Eljarh.

Haftar is really really content with the result, he adds.

The result is an executive that perhaps never expected to win and now finds itself bound to strike deals to stay afloat. Debaiba, who like Bashagha hails from the influential western city of Misrata, had overpromised positions to supporters if he won and now finds himself caught between fulfilling those pledges and international pressure to appoint a small, technocratic government. The president on his list, Mohammed Menfi, is from the east, but is not close to Haftars Libyan National Army.

The situation is very much in flux, says the International Crisis Groups Claudia Gazzini. There is on paper this new proposed executive [that] would appear unsatisfactory for Haftar but there are also signs that conversations are taking place and a more transactional relationship could develop between the nominated prime minister and the LNA, she says.

READ MORE US: Post-Trump vision for the Maghreb

I think (Haftar) can live better with this. Although Aguileh Saleh is an LNA supporter, and he as president of the House of Representatives crowned Haftar as commander of the armed forces, in the last months there hasnt been a good rapport between them, and some people in Haftars circle were worried that Aguileh if empowered would pull the carpet from under Haftar, says Gazzini.

The priority now for Haftar would be to maintain his position in charge of the LNA while securing allies into some of the new governments most important posts, including the defence and finance ministers. Seen as an increasingly irrelevant and troublesome interlocutor even by his foreign allies, Haftar may now get his way again.

Read the original here:
With Libyas surprise vote result, a defeated Haftar is back in the saddle - The Africa Report

During the past week Libyan coast guards intercepted more than 1,500 Europe-bound migrants, according to a non-governmental organization. UN officials and human rights advocates have denounced the return of migrants to Libya because they face violence and arbitrary detention.

The International Rescue Committee (IRC) confirmed Wednesday that around 1,500 people had been picked up from boats off Libyas western shores within one week.

"The Libyan coastguard has conducted several rescue operations from a week ago until (Wednesday) and rescued about 1,500 people," Adel al-Idrissi from the IRC told the news agency AFP.

Libyan authorities said that on Wednesday (February 10) alone, two boats with a total of 240 Africanmigrants on board were intercepted off the port city of Al-Khums.

The UN migration agency IOM in Libya confirmed on Twitter that over 200 migrants had been intercepted and returned to Libya on Wednesday.

Images of migrants being returned to Al-Khums show women and children.

Some of the migrants picked up by coast guards on Wednesday reportedly resisted getting on the coast guard vessel. "We encountered difficulties in getting the (migrantsfrom the first boat) on board," but the second group "showed less opposition," Lieutenant-Colonel Mohammed Abdel Aali told AFP.

Migrantsintercepted by Libyan authorities off the North African coast often object to being returned to the country and prefer to wait for humanitarian rescue ships.

"Men, women and children taken back to Libya against their will," the head of Spanish rescue organization Open Arms, Oscar Camps, said on Twitter on Wednesday. Their rescue ship Astral was on its way to the location of a distress call, he said. But when the ship arrived, the migrants had already been picked up by the Libyan patrol boat Fezzan V658, Camps tweeted in a thread.

The UN migration agency IOM in its most recent update recorded 1,487 returns to Libya between February 2-8. Since the start of the year, the IOM recorded 1,956 returns, among them 185 women and 124 minors.

International agencies and rights groups have repeatedly denounced the return of migrants to Libya, where many face violence and arbitrary detention.

Reports of rape, torture, forced labor and murder have all emerged from Libyan detention camps. Images smuggled out of these facilities show migrants detained under inhumane conditions.

Because of this, rights group have called on European countries to stop their collaboration with Libyan authorities on migration issues -- in particular, they want Italy and the EU to stop financing Libya's coast guard.

Despite its notorious reputation, Libya remains an important transit point formigrantsfleeing instability in other parts of Africa, the Middle East or south-eastern Asia who hope to reach Europe.

The Mediterranean crossing remains one of the deadliest migration routes in the world. In January of this year, a shipwreck off Libya claimed more than 40 lives. IOM says that more than 1,200migrantsand asylum seekers died while crossing the Mediterranean in 2020.

With AFP

Read more:
More than 1500 migrants intercepted off Libya and returned - InfoMigrants