Archive for June, 2020

The Culture War and the Progressive Delusion – Noah Rothman – Commentary Magazine

New York Times columnist Ross Douthat posits an interesting theory. As the Democratic Party prosecutes an internecine conflict over the way in which Americas dark blue urban enclaves police minority neighborhoods, one side of this debate is clearly winning. It is the side that argues for radical societal transformation, an embrace of paradigmatic intersectionality, and retributive rather than reparative racial justice. On the losing side of this debate are the status quo ante progressives who argue that Democrats should focus primarily, if not exclusively, on the prosecution of inter-class conflicts and pursue policies that would promote economic leveling. As Douthat observes, that was ostensibly what Bernie Sanders advocated unsuccessfully over the course of his failed presidential bid. This moment of cultural reckoning has dealt Sanders a second humiliation.

Amid the passions of this present moment, Democrats have traded in the tedious pursuit of marginal reforms to the tax code and accelerating the growth of Americas unfunded liabilities for the fervent zeal of cultural combat. Its most active partisans are dedicated less to redistribution than retribution. Those who resist are, at best, unenlightened; deviationists, at worst. And there is no room for compromise with such a distasteful lot.

Douthats column is compelling, but it includes a cliffhanger. [T]he longer arc of the current revolutionary moment may actually end up vindicating the socialist critique of post-1970s liberalism, he wrote, that its obsessed with cultural power at the expense of economic transformation, and that it puts the language of radicalism in the service of elitism. This deserves to be teased out.

If Democrats are indeed abandoning the pursuit of incrementalism and legislative remedies to American socio-political dilemmas and opting for all-consuming culture war, the trajectory of the partys political evolution is not unknowable. Weve seen how movements that dedicate themselves to the expurgation of intangible facts of lifeparticularly things as elusive as sub rosa (even subconscious) racial biasesend up running aground. The Republican Party in the age of Trump provides some clues as to how this all ends.

At the dawn of Trumps ascendancy to lead the GOP and, eventually, the executive branch, conservatives had adopted a fatalistic narrative about the direction in which the country was headed. But the problems that beset the nation were immune to political remedies. In 2016, the right bemoaned an increased antipathy toward law enforcement, the perception that immigrant groups were failing to assimilate, hedonistic themes in popular media products, totalitarianism on college campuses, and whatever cultural Marxism is. The conduct of conventional politics had failed to rectify or even address these concerns. Thus arose a permission structure that led the right to sacrifice the idea that good governance was competent governance. What the status quo needed was a good smashing.

This was a terribly self-defeating conceit. In the process of adopting the idea that cultural matters should preoccupy lawmakers, conservatives invented a set of metrics that would constitute success in government no lawmaker could hope to meet. This paradigm rendered governance itselfan unsatisfying project in which success is measured by the incremental advances that result from often painful compromisesuspect. Whats more, it blinded conservatives to the inroads they had made in transforming the culture through the powers of persuasion, example, and deductive reasoningnone of which are the fruits of legislation.

Democrats and progressives have been inclined toward this form of fatalism for some time. As the party adheres more closely with the vision espoused by practitioners of identity politics, it has come to fixate on grand social inequities. Income disparities across sociodemographic divides, sexual and racial discrimination in the private sphere, and the privileges and disadvantages acquired at birththese are the conditions that preoccupy the left. But most of these are beyond the capacity of our constitutionally constrained government to address.

Indeed, you can be forgiven for thinking the left regards the legislative efforts to mitigate these social maladies, even legislation as expansive as the Great Society, as failures. If there has been little perceptible progress toward racial reconciliation in the last 50 years, as some claim, it is because government cannot reach into the human soul and make men perfect. Even those who advance unpopular and improbable legislative efforts to address the legacy of slavery and Jim Crowmeasures like monetary reparations to the descendants of slaveswould be disappointed if they were to ever achieve their goals. They would awake the morning after to a nation that retained all the same prevailing systemic inequities they despise and with the same intractable evils in mens hearts.

Republicans learned that the culture war cannot be won in Washington, and progressives seem determined to repeat their mistakes. If the left is dedicating itself not to a realizable political program but to an abstract crusade to remake American culture, it will fail.

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The Culture War and the Progressive Delusion - Noah Rothman - Commentary Magazine

Incumbent Dems face a reckoning on primary day: Will progressives unseat them? – Yahoo News

New York's coronavirus-delayed primary is Tuesday and it has the potential to throw a wrench into the power structure in the Democratic-controlled House while in Kentucky there's a Democratic battle for the right to challenge Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell in November.

In New York, among those fighting primary challenges from their left are Democratic Reps. Eliot Engel, chair of the Foreign Affairs Committee; Carolyn Maloney, chair of the Oversight Committee; and Jerry Nadler, chair of the Judiciary Committee all longtime incumbents.

Of the powerful trio, Engel, who's in his 16th term in Congress, is by far the most vulnerable. His race has become a flashpoint in the battle between establishment Democrats and the progressive wing of the party.

Democratic Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who represents the district next to Engel's, has endorsed his more progressive challenger, Jamaal Bowman, a 44-year-old father of three and former middle school principal who has campaigned on racial injustice and human rights.

Other progressives have followed Ocasio-Cortez's lead, with her fellow "Squad" member, Rep. Ayanna Pressley of Massachusetts, and Sens. Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, both of them former presidential candidates, endorsing Bowman, as well.

Engel has countered with his own big-name backers, including former presidential nominee Hillary Clinton, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer of New York, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi of California, New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo and Rep. John Lewis, D-Ga., the civil rights leader.

"If veteran congressman Eliot Engel falls, the Democratic Party will be apoplectic," longtime New York political strategist Hank Sheinkopf told NBC News. "They'll have to deal much more with the AOC wing of the party. The left wing of the party will be better positioned, and Joe Biden will have a bigger headache the next morning."

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Maloney and Nadler appear to be on much safer ground, Sheinkopf said.

Maloney is running against three challengers, including Suraj Patel, whom she defeated in a one-on-one contest in 2018. Nadler is running against two challengers who ripped him as "all talk" on progressive issues during a NY1 debate last week, arguments that he countered by pointing to the endorsements he's gotten from Ocasio-Cortez and Warren.

Ocasio-Cortez, meanwhile, is defending her own seat from a challenger who has been using some of her own tactics against her.

Ocasio-Cortez won the seat in 2018 in a major upset over Joe Crowley, one of the top-ranking Democrats in the House. She'd argued that he spent too much away from the district focused on issues that didn't involve his constituents the same complaints her main challenger, Michelle Caruso-Cabrera, has made against her by saying "AOC is MIA."

Because of the pandemic, Caruso-Cabrera, a former CNBC anchor, hasn't been able to knock on as many doors as Ocasio-Cortez did in 2018, and Ocasio-Cortez has a significant money advantage, having raised over $10 million. That's five times more than Caruso-Cabrera has raised.

Primary day will also include a special election delayed from April to fill the upstate New York seat left vacant by the resignation of Republican Rep. Chris Collins, who pleaded guilty to insider trading last year.

The pandemic is looming over the primary in other ways.

Cuomo issued an executive order in April calling for absentee ballot applications to be sent out to all voters in the state in a bid to make voting during the pandemic safer. In New York City, the city Board of Elections has sent 679,000 ballots to voters who've requested them.

Statewide, over 1.6 million absentee ballots have been sent out, according to the state Board of Elections. In 2016, 115,000 people voted absentee in the presidential primary.

What the surge in absentee voting means for the primary is unclear, Sheinkopf said.

"Nobody knows what the outcomes will be, because there's no previous barometer for this in New York," he said. "The answers are all in the mailboxes."

Under state law, absentee ballots can't be counted until one week after the election. And as for how long it will take to count all those ballots, city Board of Elections spokeswoman Valerie Vazquez-Diaz said, "We don't know."

Tuesday is also primary day in Kentucky, where Democrats will select a candidate to take on McConnell in the fall.

Former fighter pilot Amy McGrath had been the favorite, with strong fundraising numbers and support from establishment Democrats. But over the last few weeks, rival Charles Booker, a progressive state representative, has picked up steam and the endorsements of Ocasio-Cortez and Sanders.

Booker has campaigned on racial injustice and inequity, and he has taken to the streets with Black Lives Matter demonstrators to protest the killing of Breonna Taylor, a Louisville woman who was shot dead in her apartment on March 13 by police executing a "no-knock" warrant.

He has also made an issue of McGrath's failure to protest leading her to air an ad decrying the death of George Floyd. Booker noted that she didn't mention Taylor in the ad.

As in New York, there's been a surge in absentee voting in Kentucky, with Gov. Andy Beshear regularly pleading for voters to vote by mail.

It may be hard for them to do otherwise only 200 polling places are expected to be up and running on primary day, instead of the usual 3,500, which could lead to substantial voting problems and long waits Tuesday. The state has cited a shortage of available poll workers amid coronavirus safety concerns for the drastic reduction.

Voting rights experts say that while mail-in voting is key to reducing density at polling places, election administrations should expect that a significant number of people will still want to vote in person. Georgia's primary, for instance, had a surge of absentee ballot applications, but droves of voters still showed up to vote in person either out of choice or because absentee voting applications or ballots never arrived.

According to a court filing after advocates unsuccessfully sought to add polling sites last week, Jefferson County, which includes Louisville, is one of several counties with just one in-person polling location.

As of last week, 202,652 absentee ballots had been requested in Jefferson County, suggesting a strong appetite for absentee voting, but those who want to vote in person on Election Day will have just one place to do it: the Kentucky Exposition Center. The Kentucky Exposition Center is quite large, with 1.3 million square feet of indoor space and more than 19,000 parking spaces. It will be set up to have 420 voting booths, according to the filing.

But if turnout is high, the center could easily have long lines: To serve just a quarter of the county's registered, eligible voters in person, roughly 213 voters would need to vote every single minute continuously for 12 hours straight.

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Incumbent Dems face a reckoning on primary day: Will progressives unseat them? - Yahoo News

Chuck Schumer Faces The Progressive Surge – HuffPost

A slew of ideological battles within the Democratic Party over the coming weeks, stretching from the Bronx to the hollers of eastern Kentucky to the Rocky Mountains in Colorado, will test Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumers ability to dictate primary outcomes both nationally and in his home state.

Senate Democrats political operation, previously led by former Nevada Sen. Harry Reid and now by Schumer, has not lost a primary since the 2010 election cycle, but must fend off left-wing candidates in both Kentucky and Colorado over the course of the next week. And after originally declining to pick sides in a contested House primary in his home state, Schumer endorsed House Foreign Affairs Committee Chair Eliot Engel, who is desperately trying to fend off a challenge from educator Jamaal Bowman.

Both Bowmans bid in New Yorks 16th District and the Kentucky contest which pits Schumer-backed former fighter pilot Amy McGrath against progressive state Rep. Charles Booker point to a still-emerging alliance between Black and Latino voters and progressive groups that could spoil the Democratic establishments ability to swat aside primary challenges.

These coalitions potential strength has only grown as the coronavirus pandemic and the protests following the death of George Floyd have exposed systemic inequalities in health care and policing. If the left can successfully re-create them in the years to come, almost every Democratic politician in America up to and including those as powerful as Schumer could face serious primary challenges.

From New York to Kentucky, theres a multiracial slate of progressive candidates that are surging, said Sochie Nnaemeka, the New York state director of the Working Families Party, which is backing Booker and Bowman. Primary voters are sending a clear message that politics as usual wont get us heading in the right direction.

L. Joy Williams, a New York Democratic strategist and consultant for New York Rep. Yvette Clarkes re-election bid, was blunt about the potential impact progressive wins could have on Schumer.

It will have an immediate impact in terms of people thinking about whether he is vulnerable, she said.

Schumers office declined to comment. Any attempt to unseat Schumer, who remains popular throughout the state, would be a monumental uphill battle. Persistent rumors have suggested Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, the pioneer of modern left-wing primary challenges, could run against Schumer in 2022.

Win McNamee via Getty ImagesSenate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) is navigating increasingly powerful ideological currents this primary cycle as progressive challengers face off against establishment candidates.

Progressives are targeting a number of primaries in New York. The Working Families Party and other left-leaning groups are optimistic about Mondaire Jones chances to replace retiring Rep. Nita Lowey in a district representing a swath of suburbs to the north of the city. Adem Bunkeddeko is mounting a second challenge to Clarke in a Brooklyn-based seat after losing by less than 2,000 votes in 2018. And there are two dueling progressive candidates in the race for a Bronx-based district that is the nations most Democratic.

But its the battle for Engels seat where Schumer has expended the most political capital. In early June, Schumer made it clear he hadnt picked sides between Engel and Bowman as the latter picked up political momentum. Schumers declaration forced Engel to remove his states senior senator from an online list of campaign endorsers.

Schumers neutrality couldnt last: Pro-Israel groups count both men as crucial allies, and are desperately working to keep Engel in office. Dov Hikind, a former New York assemblyman, questioned Schumers pro-Israel credentials.

A little over a week later, Schumer told the Jewish Insider he was supporting the incumbent.

Schumer has long been more conciliatory toward the left wing of the party than other Democratic leaders. He backed now-Minnesota Attorney General Keith Ellison for Democratic National Committee chair in 2016, gave both Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders and Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren roles in Senate leadership, and voted with Sanders and other progressive senators against a new trade deal with Mexico and Canada late last year.

Chuck is responsive to these kinds of pressures when he pays attention to them, said Adam Jentleson, a Democratic strategist who was a top aide to Reid. Theres a misplaced confidence in the centrist vision of the party based on [former Vice President Joe] Bidens victory in the primary.

I think the important thing moving forward is to take the left seriously,he continued.Its going to be the place where the most energizing ideas are coming from, and where a lot of the grassroots money is coming from.

And Schumers long-term political goal of reclaiming the Senate majority is now within his grasp. President Donald Trumps continued political decline has increased Democrats chances of winning Senate seats even in red-tinted states like Georgia and Iowa, and Schumers political operation has matched or outspent Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnells in most states. And after some early recruiting struggles, he managed to convince two former presidential candidates former Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper and Montana Gov. Steve Bullock to run for Senate instead.

Still, the structure of the 2018 Senate map, which was heavy on Democratic incumbents running for re-election, meant Schumer has largely been able to avoid the partys Trump-era ideological battles until this year. So far, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee-backed candidates have cruised, easily winning in Iowa and North Carolina against a mostly disorganized left wing of the party.

But that may change in Kentucky and Colorado. Senate Democrats have long viewed victory in the Bluegrass State as unlikely, but believed McGraths incredibly strong fundraising shes raised more than $40 million, compared to McConnells $23 million, according to Federal Election Commission records could help pin McConnell down and prevent him from aiding other GOP incumbents financially.

Early last week, Schumer told reporters he believed McGrath would triumph, happily explaining how a super PAC controlled by McConnell had reserved $10 million worth of airtime in the state. Later in the week, he ignored a HuffPost reporters questions about his confidence in his prized recruit.

Senate Democrats are still confident McGrath can hold off Booker, though they acknowledge the race will be far closer than previously expected. Bookers participation in Black Lives Matter protests in recent weeks has helped galvanize support, rallying progressives both in Kentucky and nationally to his cause. One of his ads features McGrath struggling to answer why she hasnt participated in the protests.

McGrath has hit back with an electability argument.

Shes Kentuckys best chance to move on from Mitch McConnell, an announcer says at the start of McGraths latest ad. Polling shows shes the only Democrat who can beat him.

If the race in Kentucky is mostly about draining McConnells resources, the contest in Colorado on June 30 is essential to Democratic victory in the battle for the Senate. It was seen as a coup when Schumer convinced Hickenlooper, a popular former governor and mayor of Denver, to drop out of the presidential race and run for Senate against vulnerable incumbent GOP Sen. Cory Gardner.

Instead, Hickenlooper has made multiple gaffes in recent weeks as his lone remaining primary rival, former state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff, has repeatedly attacked him from the left on climate change and other issues.

After Romanoff released an ad on Friday attacking Hickenlooper over an ethics violation, a quickly formed super PAC fired back with an ad attacking Romanoffs immigration record.

The super PAC, Lets Turn Colorado Blue, wont have to make its donors public until after the primary because it began spending after the pre-primary FEC filing deadline. Groups affiliated with Schumer have used similar tactics in the past to temporarily hide their donors.

The race between Hickenlooper and Romanoff has not become the flashpoint the Kentucky contest has. While both Warren and Sanders endorsed Booker, Sanders has remained neutral in Colorado and Warren has sided with Hickenlooper.

In part, this is because Romanoff doesnt have sterling progressive credentials, even if he now supports the Green New Deal and Medicare for All. In 2014, he aired an ad touting his support for a balanced budget amendment to the Constitution while running for House, and he voted against in-state college tuition for undocumented college students in the legislature.

Even if Schumers Senate picks survive, however, its clear the left is growing more capable of causing headaches for the establishment.

Progressive voters, and voters as a whole, are embracing and running toward the most systemic policy changes, Nnaemeka said. Thats the ground were operating on now, and I dont think its going to shift.

CORRECTION: This article previously misidentified the district in which Bowman is running as the 17th; it is the 16th.

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Chuck Schumer Faces The Progressive Surge - HuffPost

Fact Checking Mike Pence on the Coronavirus Pandemic – The New York Times

If the rise in cases was solely attributable to more testing, the rate of positive test results would decrease or at least hold steady. But while the number of daily tests performed has steadily increased from under 100,000 in March to 460,000 to 640,000 this week, the positive rate had fallen from 10 to 20 percent in early March to about 4 percent in early June before climbing back up to 5 to 7 percent this week.

Increased testing in other countries has not produced the uptick in the positivity rate seen in the United States. Russia, for example, has ramped up its testing to about 300,000 a day in recent weeks from about 200,000 in May. But its positive rate has continued to hover at around 3 to 5 percent.

In states with the most severe outbreaks, that trend is starker still. Positive rates in Texas and Florida have increased to 10 to 20 percent this week from rates that were generally below 10 percent in May a reality the Republican governors of both states have acknowledged.

Clearly youre seeing this, this is real, Gov. Rick DeSantis of Florida said during a news conference on Tuesday. Now they are testing more than they were for sure, but theyre also testing positive at a higher rate than they were before. And so that would tell you theres probably been an escalation and transmission over the last seven to 10 days.

Gov. Greg Abbott of Texas acknowledged the same point.

If you look at the growth or even the decline in the number of people who were testing positive as well as the positivity rate all the way through the early part of May, Texas was moving in a very productive position, he said on Monday. Then around the time of Memorial Day, there was an increase, and that increase has maintained for several weeks now, necessitating that next steps be taken.

What Was Said

Fatalities are declining all across the country.

This is misleading. While official death counts are most likely underreported, Mr. Pence is right that nationwide, deaths are continuing to decrease, though fatalities are rising or holding steady in several states such as Arizona, California, Florida, North Carolina and Texas.

Moreover, public health experts have urged caution that this will continue to be the case. Asked whether still declining fatalities were because of younger, healthier people contracting the disease, Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, the nations top infectious disease expert, told Congress this week that it was too early to make that kind of link.

Deaths always lag considerably behind cases, he said. You might remember that at the time that New York was in their worst situation where the deaths were going up and yet the cases were starting to go down, the deaths only came down multiple weeks later.

Curious about the accuracy of a claim? Email factcheck@nytimes.com.

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Fact Checking Mike Pence on the Coronavirus Pandemic - The New York Times

You Can See Mike Pence Reach the Absolute Frontier Limits of His Intellect in This Exchange – Esquire

Joshua RobertsGetty Images

(Permanent Musical Accompaniment To The Last Post Of The Week From The Blogs Favourite Living Canadian)

The White House Task Force on the coronavirus pandemic re-emerged from its hyperbaric chamber and met the press again on Friday morning. If you watched the whole thing, you might have noticed that none of them were adhering to CDC guidelines, including wearing masks, and that HHS Secretary Alex Azar tried a little of the old okey-doke involving the Ebola outbreak in the Congo, and that Dr. Anthony Fauci now sounds like a man who has been hauling a barge through the Erie Canal. But all you really needed to see was the last question and the last answer.

Paula Reid of CBS asked this question of the Poser-in-Chief regarding the superspreader events in which his re-election campaign is now engaged.

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You could see Pence visibly reach the absolute frontier limits of his intellect in trying to craft an answer that was not admitting that Reid was absolutely right, and that also would keep Pence from offending the angry toddler for whom he works. What emerged from that frontier was a rhetorical critter unfamiliar to most political taxonomists. Neither fish nor fowl, nor really English, either.

Note how quickly Pence, dancing as fast as he can, runs through his stock of conservative Republican cliches. He apparently is unaware that one can speak, laugh, cheer, chant Lock her up! and Build the wall! and USA!, and otherwise exercise ones First Amendment rights through a mask. You can talk through a mask. (Ask Batman.) Also, you can peaceably assemble while standing six feet apart. You can model behavior for your fellow citizens. You at least can say the word, mask. Pence asked us repeatedly to pray, but refused to ask us to wear masks when we do. God will not understand this at all.

Alex WongGetty Images

The House passage of a bill making the District of Columbia a state is a fine statement and thats all it is. The Senate wont even take it up and it would lose there if they did. It rocks the comfort zone of far too many people. Allowing it would put into stark relief the institutional failure of the Senate as a vehicle for self-government. Particularly piquant are the Republican complaints that this is merely a vehicle for two cold-lock Democratic seats. Leave aside the fact that a Republican desire for more Senate seats is the reason we have two Dakotas. By making this argument, the Republicans admit that they have no intention of doing anything for African-American citizens now or in the future. Its just...too...hard. All of this, of course, makes DC statehood a very good idea.

Weekly WWOZ Pick To Click: Im Goin In The Valley (Silas Hogan): Yeah, I pretty much still love New Orleans.

Weekly Visit To The Pathe Archives: Here are some young British women playing baseball in 1930. Looks like theyre pretty good, despite the weird headgear and the severe lack of basepaths. History is so cool.

Holy hell. This is amazing. From The New York Times:

Pretty clearly, somebody in the intelligence community wants the administration* to get off the dime here and is using the NYT to raise the heat.

The dime remains under the presidential* keister.

Is it a good day for dinosaur news, New York Times? Its always a good day for dinosaur news!

The phrase rocket-size marine reptiles was enough for me. Ill read any story about rocket-size marine reptileseven if the story is about the stock market, because rocket-sized marine reptiles lived then to make us happy now.

Ill be back on Monday, socially distant though I am. Be well and play nice, ya bastids. Stay above the snake-line, and wear the damn mask.

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You Can See Mike Pence Reach the Absolute Frontier Limits of His Intellect in This Exchange - Esquire