Archive for June, 2020

Republicans in Danger of Losing the Senate – TheStreet

I created the above map from the Real Clear Politics interactive map after checking the latest polls.

The Real Clear Politics base maps looks a bit different.

Real Clear Politics Map

I modified the RCP map based on recent polls.

Senate Polls

What Would a Flip Take?

Assuming my map is correct, Democrats have 47 seats which is their current total.

I have 8 states as tossups, but many of them simply because there are no polls.

To flip the Senate, democrats would have to flip 3 states if Trump loses.

If Trump wins Democrats would have to flip 4 states.

Three is very doable, and arguably likely.

Colorado

The Colorado Polls are very stale (April and Early May) but Democrat John Hickenlooper was ahead of incumbent Republican Cory Gardner by a whopping 18 points in the most recent poll.

First, Hickenlooper has to beat Andrew Romanoff in a runoff primary. But all signs point to that.

If I overestimate Democrat chances in Kentucky, I do the opposite in Colorado.

Predictit

At the beginning of June, something snapped, and everyone should know the cause.

Trump made a complete fool out of himself with a bible photo-op in the wake of the George Floyd murder.

Trump's Bubble Just Shattered

I commented on it in on June 3 in Trump's Bubble Just Shattered.

Since then 4 Republican Senators criticized Trump and a huge array of former ranking military leaders did the same.

Yesterday, the current chair of the Joint Chief of Staff, Army Gen. Mark Milley, apologized for being at that photo op with Trump.

I should not have been there, Gen. Milley said in a pre-recorded speech at National Defense University in Washington, D.C. My presence in that moment and in that environment created a perception of the military involved in domestic politics. As a commissioned uniformed officer, it was a mistake that I have learned from. And I sincerely hope we all can learn from it.

On June 9, In a Ridiculous Tweet, Trump Defends Police Who Crack a 75-Year Old Man's Head.

Also on June 9, I noted Trump Defends Immunity Laws that Protect Bad Cops.

Still 5 Months Away

The election is still 5 months away. Things can change. But Trump is Trump so there is no reason to expect things to change.

At the current speed, Trump is going to cost the Republicans not only the presidency, but the Senate.

Mish

Here is the original post:
Republicans in Danger of Losing the Senate - TheStreet

Flocking to the coast | News, Sports, Jobs – Marshalltown Times Republican

To some, the beginning of summer means trips to the beach. Yet in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, there had been questions as to whether those beaches would be open for people to enjoy after nearly three months of stay-at-home orders.

As mid-June approaches, the answer as to whether beaches are open is well, kind of.

While beaches in Ocean City, Maryland, or Alpena, Michigan report that its close to business as usual, other locales across the nation are still taking precautions in some cases opening at limited capacity as states advance through their respective COVID-19 recovery plans.

We reached out to business owners and local officials around the country to get a gauge for how different beaches are approaching the summer seasons. Heres what we found.

Ocean City, Maryland

When the state of Maryland gave the green light for businesses like Dandy Dons Bike Rentals to reopen May 9, owner Don Enste held off for a little over a week, unsure of how things would go.

In the beginning, it was a bit of a mess.

People were not following guidelines, no masks, on top of each other, said Enste, who has owned the business for 25 years. As the weeks have gone on, people have settled down a lot.

The last couple of weeks are traditionally senior weeks. In years past, those times are slower for Enste because the teens tend not to be active until around noon, when his bicycle rental business has to be off the Boardwalk, per city code. But hes been seeing more families, some of whom are presumably off of work due to the pandemic, visiting the beach with their kids.

Even so, he said that few of his customers have been Marylanders.

Everybodys down here from New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania all up in New England, Enste said. Im actually a little bit busier than normal.

Beaches and the Boardwalk are open in Ocean City, but visitors are still encouraged to wear masks, practice social distancing and avoid gatherings of more than 10 people, according to the citys website.

Restaurants are open for delivery, takeout and outdoor dining.

Myrtle Beach, S.C.

The beaches and many businesses are open in Myrtle Beach, while the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases is rising.

Looking around, I think it looks like a typical mid-June at this point, said Mark Kruea, public information director for the City of Myrtle Beach. We are the Myrtle Beach that you have come to know and love; were just not at full strength.

Restaurants are open, but with 50 percent capacity indoors, he said.

The popular vacation destination saw a spike in COVID-19 cases with 181 confirmed during the first week of June, according to the Myrtle Beach Sun-News, which said the rise is likely linked both to more people being out and about and an increase in testing. The following week, the South Carolina Department of Health and Environmental Control labeled Horry County, where Myrtle Beach is located, a hot spot for the virus.

City officials are redoubling efforts to encourage social distancing, Kruea said, adding they dont want to see a return to heavier restrictions, many of which were lifted last month.

Bring patience and bring a mask, he said. Wearing a mask is not required, but we certainly recommend that you do that.

The social-distancing practice of keeping at least six feet between individuals is also still recommended in businesses and on beaches.

Realistically, its fairly easy to social distance on the beach, Kruea said.

As of June 9, there were 803 laboratory-confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Horry County. But SCDHEC statistics also list 4,933 estimated cases, which are based on evidence that for every known case of COVID-19, there could be up to 9 people with the virus who remain unidentified in the community.

New York

The reopening of beaches for Memorial Day weekend was welcome news to Kelly Borrello, owner of Sunset Bay Beach on Lake Erie and two beach-side restaurants.

It would have been next to impossible to keep people off the beach if we had not been open, she said, noting the ideal weather for much of the holiday weekend. I would have been paying people to come to work to say You cant be here to other people. But I wouldnt have been making any money to cover the payroll costs.

The private beach, for which entry is $5 for ages 11 and up, is limited to 950 people, half its normal capacity.

When the weathers super nice, the beach traffic has been better than a normal year at this time, Borrello said.

On June 9, so many people turned out that would-be beach-goers had to wait to enter until another party left, she said.

Other state-imposed rules include requirements that people wear face coverings unless they are seated with family or in the water and keep at least 10 feet apart from other groups. Tossing footballs and Frisbees and playing sports like volleyball are not allowed.

They follow them (the rules) cause we tell them to, Borrello said. Theyre not happy about it.

Some visitors, especially teens, dont appear to be following the news and arent aware of the requirements, she said.

We are selling hundreds of face coverings on a busy day, Borrello said.

Patio dining and takeout service has kept some traffic flowing at her restaurants, Cabana Sams Sunset Bay Grill and Sunset Bay Deli.

Neither one of them are really takeout restaurants, Borrello said. Its really more about the atmosphere and the entertainment, which cant be offered right now.

In addition to being located on Lake Erie, the area also boasts Chautauqua Lake, which has some private beaches but is mostly a fishing and boating draw, said Todd Tranum, president and CEO of the Chautauqua County Chamber of Commerce.

Getting the lakes open, the beaches open, activities going again is incredibly important to the local economy, he said.

Tranum said hes noticed increased boat traffic, something he attributes to more people doing staycations or coming from nearby areas rather than traveling extensively during the pandemic.

New Hampshire

Beaches in New Hampshire opened to the public on June 1, but only allowed recreational activities. Then, on June 5, New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu announced sunbathing and other beach activities may resume, but people must maintain a six-foot distance from one another.

Previously, only activities like swimming, running, walking and surfing were allowed on the beaches, but sitting, congregating, sunbathing and lounging are now permitted as well.

Chuck Rage, Chairman of the Hampton Beach Village District, said about 90 percent of everything is open in the state.

We have a lot of outdoor dining, Rage said. We closed the boulevard off and made the back boulevard two-way traffic and its giving a lot of social distancing because theres a lot more space for people to walk around.

Rage said restaurants will be able to host indoor dining next week at 50 percent capacity something about which he is excited.

And while you can do more on the beach, parking restrictions are in place that will only allow 50 percent capacity at state parks. Dropping off passengers or items in the parking area is not permitted and could be fined.

Rage said its been invigorating seeing people return to the area and the beaches.

People just want to get away, he said. I had someone the other day say you know Im working from home. I can work from the beach, use your WiFi and look at the ocean while Im working. I think people are excited to just not be stuck in the house looking at the same four walls.

Day-use parking reservations are available for Wallis Sands and Hampton South Beach parking lots. Metered parking is also open and limited to 50 percent capacity.

All seacoast beaches are also open including Wallis Sands, Jenness, Hampton, North Beach and North Hampton State Beach.

Inland beaches must also limit occupancy and picnic tables must be spread 10 feet apart, which can be reserved online.

Rage said the weather has been wonderful and most hotels are open, with restrictions.

Its exciting and people are happy people walking and just having a grand time, he said.

Ohio

In Ohio, most outdoor spaces, such as nature preserves, state parks, trails and fishing piers, are open. Visitors still must adhere to social distancing guidelines but popular summer destination Put-in-Bay is now accessible by ferry again.

Previously, travel to the island off the coast of Lake Erie was limited to essential travel, but vacationers may now return. Hotels, restaurants and golf cart rentals are also back up and running.

Staying on the mainland, Vermilions Main Street Beach has seen more visitors now that the winter weather has dissipated.

Jim Forthofer, mayor of Vermilion, said the beach was never closed to the public but the playground equipment near it was. Playground equipment can now be used and Forthofer said theyre trying open things that are safe.

He said that over the weekend, the beach had a lot of visitors but they seemed to be following social distancing.

Were a big festival town and they bring in tens of thousands of people, Forthofer said. Certainly the fish festival, we just couldnt see our way clear to justifying bringing that many people in when the rules are no more than 10 people in one group.

He said Vermilion is focusing more on small things to do for the community rather than big festivals.

Things that are controllable and can be a few people at a time but still get people out, Forthofer said. (We want people) to have fun and get them downtown without creating a big crowd.

He said that the initial reopening of businesses and restaurants started out slowly, but things are picking up now and restaurants are hitting their allowed capacities.

I made a statement to the public that it doesnt really matter whether you believe that this whole virus thing is a real thing or government hoax I dont care, follow the rules, Forthofer said.

He said, for the most part, people have been following guidelines set by the Ohio Department of Health.

With the weather, people just want to get out and weve got some great places to go downtown, Forthofer said.

Virginia Beach

Jeff Wynkoop starts booking up his rental home on the northern side of Virginia Beach in early March, but after the pandemic struck, 90 percent of them canceled, he said.

We were like, whats going to happen here?' he wondered.

Two weeks ago, he started getting inquiries about their cleaning procedures at the rental due to coronavirus. Hed tell them theyre using the same cleaning products and procedures theyve always used.

About the same time, people started booking five day vacations, wanting to be on the safe side and leave a day or two between whenever the last guest left, Wynkoop said. But that didnt last long.

All of a sudden, a week ago, we got slammed, he said. Were booked. We have one week left in August.

Most of the bookings have been young families from Northern Virginia and Maryland, he said. He suspects the bookings are because people are worn down by the pandemic and stay-at-home orders.

I can tell a big difference between the people around here and people from up north, he said. The Northern Virginia people are scared to death that the virus is going to jump in their car and attack them. Its a totally different outlook down here. Virginia Beach is pretty laid back.

The state recently lifted more restrictions on beachgoers. Now, they can gather in groups of 50 people instead of 10. People are still expected to stay six feet away from people who arent family members and no sports, including Frisbees, are allowed.

People arent allowed to bring in large coolers, music speakers, alcohol, tents or more than two umbrellas, to discourage large groups and parties. According to a state update June 5, parking lots and garages are also limited to 50 percent capacity.

Erin Goldmeier, director of public relations for the tourism agency Visit Virginia Beach, said the groups website has seen an increase in people looking for travel content rather than coronavirus information.

Weekend business is strong, and we have slowly seen an increase in customers going to and returning to attractions and restaurants, Goldmeier said in an email.

In Central Virginia, families have also started booking summer vacations on Lake Anna.

I think people are starting to come back, said Jeff Heidig, owner of the Lake Anna Winery. Theyre getting antsy and want to get out of the house.

Because of its size and central location, Heidig said Lake Anna gets vacationers from northern and southern Virginia.

People in the north, where the population is, are coming down here where its a little more laid back, he said.

MICHIGAN

At Starlite Beach in Alpena, Mich., Loni Schroeder watched as her five year old daughter Kenlea Schroeder tossed stones into Lake Huron on Thursday afternoon. The temperature had only made it to 66 that day, so they were just hanging out on the shoreline enjoying the sunshine.

Kenlea was excited to be near the water even if it wasnt hot enough to go swimming.

I love to go everywhere! she exclaimed.

Her mom was enjoying the beach as well.

Its my happy place, said Loni Schroeder. I love hearing the waves crash and watching the water, and watching her have fun.

The state is now heading into Stage 4 of Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmers Safe Start Plan, which allows for gradual reopening of outdoor recreation areas with social distancing in place.

Schroeder has no qualms about crowds of people congregating at the beach as things reopen after the COVID-19 quarantine period.

If youre outside, get fresh air, dont wear a mask, she said. If you have to wear a mask outside, why are you outside?

She added that people that go to the beach generally stay in their own groups of family and friends with whom they came, so social distancing should not be a problem.

Mary Beth Stutzman, president and CEO of the Alpena Area Convention & Visitors Bureau, said outdoor recreation, including beach-going, is a huge summer draw for those visiting Northern Michigan.

As travel begins to wake up after our recent experience, people are taking more road trips and they are looking for outdoor recreation destinations because they can maintain social distancing and be out in the fresh air and not in enclosed spaces, Stutzman said on Thursday.

The Alpena Area CVB covers a variety of Lake Huron beaches in the area, including Starlite, Mich-e-ke-wis and Thompson parks within the city limits, Ossineke and Negwegon beaches to the south, and Rockport and Thompsons Harbor to the north.

State Parks, including Negwegon and Thompsons Harbor, are under the Michigan Department of Natural Resources jurisdiction, while other municipalities determine their own parks restrictions, under the umbrella of the governors guidelines.

We are excited to open up these resources to visitors again, Ron Olson, chief of the DNR Parks and Recreation Division, said in a June 4 press release. We can identify with the passion and enthusiasm people have for these beautiful outdoor spaces, especially during the warmer months, and were working hard to make sure everything is ready.

Because Alpena is smaller than some other Great Lakes destinations, it is a great place to visit to both save money, avoid crowded areas, all while enjoying the outdoors, Stutzman said.

Its an excellent thing, Stutzman said about Alpena tourism. The three main things that we have been following, as far as predictions of what will come back first weve seen road trips, outdoor recreation, and traveling to budget destinations that are not crowded. And Alpena checks all those boxes.

She expects tourism to kick back in, but it may not be as strong as prior years because of the pandemic.

So we will have tourism traffic this summer, and into fall and winter, as infection rates decline and everything is opened back up again, Stutzman said. We will see travel, but it wont be at the level that weve seen in previous years. We have a long road ahead to build back up to the levels that we were seeing. But it does position Alpena in a really good light, and were fortunate that we have those things going for us.

Visit link:
Flocking to the coast | News, Sports, Jobs - Marshalltown Times Republican

[WATCH] Opposition leader hits out against government over its attempt to ‘control the media’ – MaltaToday

Nationalist Party leader Adrian Delia has hit out against government over its attempt to control the media.

Delia was referring to a wrap-around paid advert on this Sundays newspapers, which featured a government explainer on this weeks supplementary budget announced by Prime Minister Robert Abela.

The government is desperate to gain more control and wrap up the truth on newspapers, he said.

The Opposition leader was speaking on party television station NET Television, where he insisted the PN will not be bought.

The Nationalist Party will continue to shout the truth, so that when people buy our newspapers, they understand the truth, he said.

It is time we removed government propaganda from our newspapers, so that people read the truth of what is happening in our country.

Adrian Delia spoke about the partys restructuring, stating the reform is intended to strengthen the partys message of solidarity, not change its beliefs.

On Saturday, the PN leader mooted the possibility of changing the PNs motto from Religio et Patria to Gas-Servizz Tiegek (for your service).

We are a party of truth, which believes in delivering our message honestly and as transparent as possible, he said.

He explained that throughout numerous meetings, the PN has listened and discussed with everyone, while not shying away from accepting all forms of criticism.

Delia said that at times he became emotional in realizing the love and loyalty some people have towards the party, even at times when the party abandoned them.

We want to reflect this love in our statute, because we want to create a space where people voice their concerns and have a say in the formation of party policy, he said.

The individual is what the party is based on.

On the appointment of the new police commissioner, Delia said the party will not endorse a false process, insisting the commissioner is appointed through a two-thirds parliamentary majority.

The opposition leader said that the new police commissioner will have a one-year probation period, meaning he could be easily dismissed by the PM in that window.

Delia said the PN has drawn up proposals on the appointment of the President, Chief Justice and police commissioner, with such proposals being available on the public domain.

The PN leader also voiced his concern over the PMs lack of action in removing those linked with corruption.

Is it because the PMs hands are tied? Is it because his consultants wont let him take certain decisions? he asked.

Read more here:
[WATCH] Opposition leader hits out against government over its attempt to 'control the media' - MaltaToday

India and China’s border spat is turning into an all-out media war – CNN

Tensions have been growing in the Himalayas along one of the world's longest land borders, with New Delhi and Beijing both accusing the other of overstepping the Line of Actual Control (LAC) that separates the two. The territory has long been disputed, erupting into numerous minor conflicts and diplomatic spats since a bloody war between the countries in 1962.

On Saturday, military leaders met at the border to "peacefully resolve the situation in the border areas," according to a statement from India's foreign ministry. Even today, just what occurred on the ground in the highly militarized region remains unclear -- in part because the main body of this distinctly 21st-century conflict has so far mostly played out through propaganda, strategic leaks and aggressive posturing in the media.

Jingoistic rhetoric

"Some used to say that US and Israel were the only countries which were willing and capable of avenging every drop of the blood of their soldiers," Shah said. "(Modi) has added India to that list.''

Defense Minister Rajnath Singh also weighed in Monday, saying: "I would remind everyone, India's leadership will not let our self respect suffer. India's policy is clear, we won't hurt any country's integrity and dignity. At the same time we will not let any country to hurt our integrity."

Long-running dispute

How resolvable those issues actually are is unclear, given they date back decades and are largely fueled by both sides' refusal to accept the other's territorial claims. Tensions grew late last month amid accusations both countries had overstepped the LAC and were reinforcing their military position on the de facto border.

If China's propaganda and very public PLA deployments are designed to persuade India to back off, Delhi may be looking for similar influence in emphasizing and building its international ties, linking the border issue to other disputes China has in the wider Asia-Pacific region.

"(Washington's) offer to help may have emboldened some in India to take a tougher stand against China in order to 'defend its pride'," the paper added.

"Although China's relationship with the US is tense, the international environment for China is much better than it was in 1962 when India started and (was) crushingly defeated in a border war with China," Long wrote. "In 1962, the national strength of China and India were comparable. Today by stark contrast, China's GDP is about five times that of India."

For now, outright aggression is confined to the media. But with tensions running hot despite the efforts of military figures Saturday, the likelihood of this problem going away soon seems highly unlikely.

Read the original post:
India and China's border spat is turning into an all-out media war - CNN

Former reporter takes control of fugitive husband’s $11.7 billion fortune – Sydney Morning Herald

The transfer is happening at a tricky time for Hong Kong, where the real estate sector faces a downturn from ongoing anti-government protests and the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite a 41 per cent jump this month, Chinese Estates shares are down 20 per cent for 2020.

Before marrying Lau in 2016, Chan was a reporter at Apple Daily for several years, where she covered entertainment and made connections with various celebrities around the city. She joined the Chinese Estates group as an associate in 2002, working in its cosmetic business, according to a company filing. Her elder sister, Chan Sze-wan, was appointed chief executive officer of the company in 2015 after joining in 2002. Chan Lok-wan, her younger sister, is an executive director.

Lau, who was convicted of bribery and money laundering in Macau in 2014, came into the political spotlight last year, when his lawyers applied for a judicial review against the government's plans to permit extraditions, including to mainland China and Macau. His legal challenge opened a split between the Hong Kong government and the business community, which deepened as other business leaders came out against the bill. Lau later withdrew the application, and the government ended up scrapping the law in the face of growing protests.

He was sentenced in absentia to five years and three months in prison for his conviction but, with no extradition pact between Hong Kong and Macau, hasn't served jail time -he just hasn't returned to the gambling hub. This week's share transfer to Chan may be a way to protect the stake, said Everbright Sun Hung Kai's Ng.

Loading

"Lau's family is still optimistic about the prospect of Hong Kong and Chinese Estates so the members of the family increased their shareholding," the company said in an email. "Chinese Estates' general operation and policy will remain unchanged. Please do not make any conjectures."

Lau, one of Hong Kong's richest moguls whose early fortune came from making ceiling fans with his brother Thomas, has been known for some of his high-profile relationships with women. His first marriage to Theresa Po Wing-kam ended in the early 1990s. They had a daughter, Jade, and Lau Ming-wai, who is the chairman of Chinese Estates and deputy chairman of Ocean Park, the debt-laden amusement park that is seeking a government rescue plan.

Before marrying Chan, he had a dramatic breakup with his girlfriend Yvonne Lui Lai-kwan that resulted in Lau's printing of a full-page statement in several newspapers to debunk "untrue reports in the media," in which he said he had given her gifts worth more than $HK2 billion over the years, making her a "very wealthy woman." Lau had two children with Lui.

The more shareholding concentration will reduce the possibility of disputes concerning future direction, which would be positive for Chinese Estates' development and also for the shareholders. It's expected that Chan Hoi-wan will be more actively involved in the company.

Nowadays, the 68-year-old mogul keeps a low profile. This year, as most of Hong Kong's richest tycoons declared support for Beijing's controversial national security law, he has not come out publicly on the issue.

One of the few places where he appears is on the Instagram feed of his wife. Chan, who goes by Kimbee on the platform, posts shots to her 182,000 followers with celebrity friends and business elites. As recently as last year, she showed photos of Lau hobnobbing with fellow billionaires, including Jack Ma, China's richest man, and Thomas Kwok, a member of Hong Kong's wealthiest family. She also posts frequently about penguins.

Chan, whose age was given as 40 in a December filing, started accruing assets in 2017, when Lau gave her a retail complex at commercial building The One in Tsim Sha Tsui that he bought for $HK7.8 billion ($1.5 billion). The same year, he transferred most of his stake in Chinese Estates to her. He told Apple Daily that Chan "is not greedy. She is pure, and she is not a bad woman. She has been taking good care of me and my children."

The family fortune is under pressure due to ongoing uncertainty in Hong Kong. Credit:AP

Lau, who has also owned a Boeing 747 jet and has properties in Hong Kong and London, is known for his investments in art, wine and jewellery, and children with Chan have been the recipients of his largesse. He bought them precious stones and named one of them "The Blue Moon of Josephine", after their daughter Josephine. It has the highest possible colour grade of fancy vivid blue, and its pre-sale price was estimated at 34.2 million francs to 53 million francs ($52.3 million-$81.5 million), according to Sotheby's website.

Loading

Despite the health concerns he cited for his transfer of shares to Chan in 2017, they had a third child in 2018.

Chinese Estates' annual report shows that Chan holds her shares as trustee for her minor children, which means they will be among the heirs to one of the world's greatest and most bewildering fortunes. But while they're still kids, their mother will protect them. On Instagram, Chan sometimes covers their faces with penguin emojis.

Bloomberg

Read more here:
Former reporter takes control of fugitive husband's $11.7 billion fortune - Sydney Morning Herald