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The idea that the world will be a better place after the death of Isis leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi is a far-fetched one. Sure, Isis was dealt a major blow, but that hardly makes the Middle Easta better-looking place. It makes it look like a pig wearing makeup.

Isis effectively took a wrecking ball to the Arab world. The groups main aim was to blur existing national borders in favour of its caliphate. But its historic and dramatic rise left us struggling to recognise the wider Middle Easts descent into anarchy.

Both in its structure and in its lust for power, Isis was a reflection of whats happened to the region now nothing more than a decadent corpse, devastated not by Isis alone but by an unprecedented hike in the number of militias and armed groups.

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Whether you callthem militias, armies, rapid forces or whatever youd prefer depends on where you stand. This belt of militias extends across Libya, Sudan, Yemen, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon. It is a complicated pattern of armed groups created to fight each other as part of an endless multi-layered cold war shaping the regions future.

They are wreaking havoc within and beyond the borders of the post-independence Arab state as we know it, and threatening its very existence. Although they have conflicting ideological, ethnical, geographical and tribal agendas, they all share one motive: serving the interests of big regional players, many of whom helped create them in the first place.

Iran was the first to devise the idea of a militia more powerful than the state, a force to control the state from within as part of a regional sectarian project. In Lebanon, the creation of Hezbollah which has increased its power and survived for decades was a great success. It sent a wave of admiration throughout the whole region, especially (and ironically) among Irans rivals in the Gulf.

A Syrian tank lies turned over in the Hermon Stream in the Banias Nature Reserve on the western edge of the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. Israel captured the area, a former demilitarized zone, in the 1967 Six Day War

Reuters

A part of the trench in a former Jordanian military post known as Ammunition Hill in Jerusalem. Originally built by the British, the site was captured by Jordan in the 1948-1949 war and held by them until Israeli troops captured it in the 1967

Reuters/Ronen Zvulun

An abandoned mosque on a rainy morning in the Golan Heights, in territory that Israel captured from Syria and occupied in the 1967 Middle East war. Until 1967 a Syrian village inhabited by Circassians stood near the site, which now lies just 5km on the Israeli side of the United Nations-monitored 'Area of Separation' that divides Israeli and Syrian military forces under a 1974 ceasefire arrangement

Reuters/Ronen Zvulun

The broken helicopter of the late Palestinian Authority President Yasser Arafat sits atop a structure in Gaza City. Without its main rotor, it is now on public display in the coastal enclave that is now controlled by the Palestinian Authority's most powerful domestic rival, Hamas

Reuters/Ibraheem Abu Mustafa

A sign warning of landmines on a fence in the Golan Heights. Many Israeli and foreign tourists drive past the site on their way to popular holiday spots

Reuters/Ronen Zvulun

Part of an abandoned Syrian building in the Golan Heights. Once a military headquarters, it is one of many Syrian buildings left deserted and abandoned since wars fought half a century ago

Reuters/Ronen Zvulun

The wall of a structure in a former Syrian outpost in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. In stark contrast to the beauty of the surrounding countryside, it is now crumbling and covered in graffiti, one Arabic message reading: "The Syrian army passed by here."

Reuters/Ronen Zvulun

Buildings constructed during the British Mandate era to serve as jails and fortified positions in Al-Jiftlik village near Jericho, in the Israeli-occupied West Bank. Long abandoned, sheep now wander through the empty buildings, searching for vegetation in the scorching heat of the Jordan Valley. The Israeli military sometimes uses them for training, Palestinian residents say

Reuters/Mohamad Torokman

A bunker in the Golan Heights, in territory that Israel captured from Syria. It was used for military purposes and has been deserted for many years

Reuters/Ronen Zvulun

British soldiers depicted in a mural on an old pillbox in Jerusalem. The pillbox dating back to the era of British Mandatory rule before 1948, stands abandoned in a busy intersection of Jerusalem. The mural was added in recent years

Reuters/Ronen Zvulun

Concrete blast walls are seen in an open area once used by the Israeli military near Rahat, southern Israel. Once part of a facility for training in urban warfare, the barriers are now an isolated scar on the landscape

Reuters/Ronen Zvulun

A part of a trench is seen in a former Jordanian military post known as Ammunition Hill in Jerusalem. Originally built by the British, the site was captured by Jordan in the 1948-1949 war and held by them until Israeli troops captured it in the 1967

Reuters/Ronen Zvulun

The derelict remains of Gaza International Airport in Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip. Former US President Bill Clinton attended the opening ceremony in 1998. But Israeli air strikes and bulldozers closed it down during the second Palestinian uprising, or Intifada, a few months after the September 11, 2001 attacks on the United States

Reuters/Ibraheem Abu Mustafa

A house is seen in Lifta, a ruined Palestinian Arab village whose inhabitants left or were forced from their homes in the conflict that accompanied the end of British rule and the founding of Israel in 1948. The abandoned ruins are visible to travelers arriving at the western entrance of Jerusalem

Reuters/Ronen Zvulun

An abandoned mosque on a rainy morning in the Golan Heights, in territory that Israel captured from Syria

Reuters/Ronen Zvulun

A part of a structure in a former Jordanian military base near the Dead Sea in the Israeli-occupied West Bank. The building is a scar in the landscape as it stands deserted following the 1967 Middle East war when Israel captured the area from the Jordanians

Reuters/Ronen Zvulun

A Syrian tank lies turned over in the Hermon Stream in the Banias Nature Reserve on the western edge of the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. Israel captured the area, a former demilitarized zone, in the 1967 Six Day War

Reuters

A part of the trench in a former Jordanian military post known as Ammunition Hill in Jerusalem. Originally built by the British, the site was captured by Jordan in the 1948-1949 war and held by them until Israeli troops captured it in the 1967

Reuters/Ronen Zvulun

An abandoned mosque on a rainy morning in the Golan Heights, in territory that Israel captured from Syria and occupied in the 1967 Middle East war. Until 1967 a Syrian village inhabited by Circassians stood near the site, which now lies just 5km on the Israeli side of the United Nations-monitored 'Area of Separation' that divides Israeli and Syrian military forces under a 1974 ceasefire arrangement

Reuters/Ronen Zvulun

The broken helicopter of the late Palestinian Authority President Yasser Arafat sits atop a structure in Gaza City. Without its main rotor, it is now on public display in the coastal enclave that is now controlled by the Palestinian Authority's most powerful domestic rival, Hamas

Reuters/Ibraheem Abu Mustafa

A sign warning of landmines on a fence in the Golan Heights. Many Israeli and foreign tourists drive past the site on their way to popular holiday spots

Reuters/Ronen Zvulun

Part of an abandoned Syrian building in the Golan Heights. Once a military headquarters, it is one of many Syrian buildings left deserted and abandoned since wars fought half a century ago

Reuters/Ronen Zvulun

The wall of a structure in a former Syrian outpost in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. In stark contrast to the beauty of the surrounding countryside, it is now crumbling and covered in graffiti, one Arabic message reading: "The Syrian army passed by here."

Reuters/Ronen Zvulun

Buildings constructed during the British Mandate era to serve as jails and fortified positions in Al-Jiftlik village near Jericho, in the Israeli-occupied West Bank. Long abandoned, sheep now wander through the empty buildings, searching for vegetation in the scorching heat of the Jordan Valley. The Israeli military sometimes uses them for training, Palestinian residents say

Reuters/Mohamad Torokman

A bunker in the Golan Heights, in territory that Israel captured from Syria. It was used for military purposes and has been deserted for many years

Reuters/Ronen Zvulun

British soldiers depicted in a mural on an old pillbox in Jerusalem. The pillbox dating back to the era of British Mandatory rule before 1948, stands abandoned in a busy intersection of Jerusalem. The mural was added in recent years

Reuters/Ronen Zvulun

Concrete blast walls are seen in an open area once used by the Israeli military near Rahat, southern Israel. Once part of a facility for training in urban warfare, the barriers are now an isolated scar on the landscape

Reuters/Ronen Zvulun

A part of a trench is seen in a former Jordanian military post known as Ammunition Hill in Jerusalem. Originally built by the British, the site was captured by Jordan in the 1948-1949 war and held by them until Israeli troops captured it in the 1967

Reuters/Ronen Zvulun

The derelict remains of Gaza International Airport in Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip. Former US President Bill Clinton attended the opening ceremony in 1998. But Israeli air strikes and bulldozers closed it down during the second Palestinian uprising, or Intifada, a few months after the September 11, 2001 attacks on the United States

Reuters/Ibraheem Abu Mustafa

A house is seen in Lifta, a ruined Palestinian Arab village whose inhabitants left or were forced from their homes in the conflict that accompanied the end of British rule and the founding of Israel in 1948. The abandoned ruins are visible to travelers arriving at the western entrance of Jerusalem

Reuters/Ronen Zvulun

An abandoned mosque on a rainy morning in the Golan Heights, in territory that Israel captured from Syria

Reuters/Ronen Zvulun

A part of a structure in a former Jordanian military base near the Dead Sea in the Israeli-occupied West Bank. The building is a scar in the landscape as it stands deserted following the 1967 Middle East war when Israel captured the area from the Jordanians

Reuters/Ronen Zvulun

Even as Hezbollah and later its replicas in Iraq (Popular Mobilisation Forces) and Yemen (Houthis) created the biggest security threat in the Gulf countries history, those same Gulf states decided to mirror the same Iranian strategy in a bid to counter its increasing influence. The whole idea is to destroy Irans power using its own weapon.

Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar (who are at this very moment busy trying to undermine each other) have invested billions of dollars in trying to push Iran back. If they are serious about putting an end to Iranian intervention in the Arab sphere, this is the right thing to do.

But by copying and pasting their rivals militia strategy, they ended up doing the right thing in a disastrous way. The idea of killing Iran with its own weapon simply backfired.

The fallout is all too apparent: millions of Arab refugees, the swift rise of religious extremism, and the creation of existential threats to fellow Arab states. And who benefits without lifting a finger? Iran, of course.

But this isnt just about Iranian power. Saudi Arabia, theUAE, Egypt and their allies (not to mention Qatar) are also inadvertently helping Turkey and Israel as they too try to gain ground. It is not surprising that the more effort the Gulf states put into pushing back the non-Arab powers, the more influence those same powers accrue.

The wealthy Arab states also got it wrong when they tried applying the same minority-empowerment strategy used by Iran to bolster theShiacommunity to solve the Sunni majority dilemma in the Arab world. Instead of empowering the state in in Syria, Libya and Yemen, they unintentionally ended up undermining its very existence.

In providing generous support for Libyas General Khalifa Haftars National Army in his fight against the Qatari-backed militias in Tripoli, and in propping up Yemens southern separatists and General Hemedtis Rapid Support Forces in Sudan, the UAE and Saudi Arabia are digging a big hole for themselves as they try to pursue some kind of Arab project in the face of Irans relentless efforts to undermine it.

The huge amount of cash pumped into this anarchy created a new class of warlords, who are now capable of controlling a large portion of these countries populations, guaranteeing their security and providing them with basic services where the state cannot.

As time passes, the militia system feeds on its own power, with various warlords establishing cross-border solidarity and others backing conflicting forces. It is reported that Hezbollah is providing Yemens Houthis with the technical know-how they need to target sensitive Saudi infrastructure with drones.

Sudanese General Hemedti, on the other hand, has taken a different side in the Yemen war, trying to prop-up president Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadis forces in his fight against the Houthis. This week, other reports suggested that Hemedti has sent troops to back General Haftar in Libya.

Meanwhile, Qatar, with the help of Turkey, is also doing its part by supporting the militias trying to thwart Haftars bid to recapture the Libyan capital, Tripoli.

This bleak and eccentric network has turned the Middle East into a region run, in effect, by warlords and militia commanders.

The only way out is for the Gulf states to change course. If they are to stop Irans rambling death train in its tracks, they must sign a reconciliation agreement that would put an end to their meaningless and protracted feuds. And they must accept that by deploying militias as power vehicles, they have helped lay waste to what remains of various Arab societies.

The time has come for the big Arab regional powers to instead invest in real institutions and support strong governments that can effectively run sovereign states. Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar must stop serving Irans agenda both intentionally and unintentionally once and for all.

Read more:
The Gulf states tried to turn Irans own weapon against it and it backfired with terrible consequences - The Independent

There will be more danger ahead for the Lebanese uprising. Irans proxies will continue to orchestrate a dispersal of the protests by force or attrition and fulfill their promises to their leadership. On the surface, Tehran says the revolution is not against Hezbollah but corruption. In reality, however, it is well aware that the uprising has Hezbollah in its crosshairs as well as the government. The militant group cannot escape accusations of corruption and demands for accountability. Hezbollah itself has declared its allegiance to Irans supreme leader and admitted that its funds and hardware are supplied by Tehran. Tehran has decided not only to prevent Hezbollah from falling at any cost but has told its allies in Moscow it intends to use the current situation in Lebanon to increase Hezbollahs power, even if it requires force. Iran sees Lebanon as an important arena in the duel with Washington and will not sacrifice its prize, no matter the cost.

The multi-generational revolution in Lebanon against the corrupt political class is in danger. It has a regional behemoth as an adversary, which will not allow it to stand in the way of its projects or undermine its gains. It is therefore imperative for the uprising to take stock of regional and international dynamics, develop tactical and strategic steps to ensure its survival, capitalise on its gains and achieve its demands gradually and consistently. The revolution must not be extinguished as the so-called axis of resistance wishes it to be. If it truly is a revolution, then it will be a long, difficult and bloody march. Its first martyr has already been claimed: Alaa Abou Fakher, killed by a bullet that made him an icon.

Washington of course welcomes the uprising as a benefit to its policy of tightening the noose around Hezbollah and expanding sanctions against the party. However, this is a patriotic, homegrown revolution.

Russias leadership has so far sided with the ruling class. At the Paris Peace Forum, foreign minster Sergey Lavrov dismissed a key demand of the uprising, namely to form a technocratic government with no career politicians, saying it was unrealistic. He expressed implicit support for Hezbollahs position of forming a government of politicians combined with technocrats.

The axis of resistance has claimed it now commands a bigger bloc of supporters than the protesters

According to Russian sources, Moscow sees the discord in Lebanon as a threat to its efforts to stabilise Syria, where it faces a complex mission with no guarantee of success. It sees Hezbollah and Iran as easier to deal with than the Lebanese army, say the sources. Perhaps it is Washingtons ties with the army that frustrate Moscow but there is a risk that in supporting Irans influence in Lebanon, Russia is jeopardising Lebanons sovereignty.

The sources revealed Tehran had given Moscow promises to pacify the situation and restore normality to the country by putting an end to the protests, adding that instability in Lebanon was not in the Russian interest.

The axis of resistance has claimed it now commands a bigger bloc of supporters than the protesters. But such a bloc of people would not represent either Lebanons independence or its national army. Lebanese President Michel Aoun, who has long spoken of his support for the national army, is today hostage to his affiliation to the axis. Indeed, by condoning the Iranian project in Lebanon, he has undermined his own countrys sovereignty and the army he once led. Iran and Hezbollah do not want to allow the national army to lead so the president must remember his oath of allegiance instead of being a silent witness to the attack on his country by Iran.

The president must also apologise for saying the Lebanese should emigrate if they are unhappy with his rule. He must reassure his people that he is not simply a puppet of the axis of resistance and do everything he can to restore confidence and prevent the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in Iran from turning a peaceful uprising into a bloody confrontation.

Washington is determined to choke Iran and its proxies economically to force it to adjust its behaviour in issues such as its nuclear and ballistic missile programme and its regional expansionist projects in Arab countries. Hezbollah is the most successful implementation of that model.

Lebanon has become an arena for the Iranian regimes battle for influence and survival. This regime sees uprisings as a threat to its projects, even when they are primarily challenging corruption. Washington, meanwhile, sees Lebanon as a key factor in its bid to block Irans schemes. Iran is now vulnerable in Iraq, Syria and Yemen as well as at home, where protests are beginning to erupt against the regimes authoritarianism, and the hardship and isolation that have resulted from successive rounds of US sanctions.

In view of this equation, the Lebanese army is the countrys safety valve. If the president chooses Lebanon over Iran, he must not fear the social media-fuelled protests and instead forgo his political alliances. Otherwise he will be bound in the service of Iran.

Updated: November 17, 2019 01:04 PM

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Lebanon has become an arena for the Iranian regimes battle for influence and survival - The National

U.S. democracy is a very curious beast. In U.S. democracy, it doesnt matter how big the calamity is. It also doesnt matter how many politicians urgently call for reform or how loud the public outcry is in the media.

In U.S. democracy, the law of inverse proportions applies: The louder the public outcry, the more one can be sure that nothing will happen to remedy the actual problem.

This perverted politic logic applies from the Facebook scandal and regularly occurring police killings of African-Americans to all those school shootings. Donald Trumps tenure in the Oval Office makes all this only more deplorable.

A while ago, there were those who believed that the youth protests after the high school shooting incident in Parkland, Florida would transform the political landscape. This time would be different, they said. They learned soon enough that they were kidding themselves if they didnt know it all along.

Later on, there was the Pittsburgh synagogue shooting, and now the school shooting in Santa Clarita, California. And yet, nothing much will change on gun control in the United States even though the needed solutions are entirely commonsensical. Such solutions can only prove so elusive in ideology-driven countries. Meanwhile, Donald Trump and the Republicans still resort to blaming mental health issues for any shooting.

The cynical U.S.

Under those circumstances, it is hard to escape the conclusion that the United States represents the most cynical country in the history of Western thought. Nowhere is the gap between self-laudatory statements and political realities bigger.

The preferred modus operandi is to operate what might best be termed as fake government. Such a government engages for the most part in pretend actions.

In their unbridled cynicism, Republicans rely on the chronically short attention span of the American public. They count on the fact that any calls for reform, often bombastically presented to satisfy the needs of public arousal, will soon enough fizzle and/or be forgotten.

And the Democrats?

As for the Democrats, they at least try to pursue some reforms, but they ultimately know that they arent going to succeed. For that reason, in some ways they are actually the more frustrating party. They raise the publics hopes and expectations for change and then cant deliver.

As a result, policymaking in the United States has degraded to the level of one gigantic kabuki show, resolving nothing.

Congressional hearings featuring Facebooks Mark Zuckerberg are further evidence of that. The Republicans, eager to turn Facebook with its political advertising power into an ally of the political right, only go through the motions of demanding change from the internet giant.

Notwithstanding the efforts of Elizabeth Warren and AOC, even many Democrats are conflicted, not just by being on the take for campaign contributions from Silicon Valley firms. In the past, they have also often been the chief promulgators of the supposed global soft power of the U.S.-based Internet giants, pretending those were a force for good.

Meanwhile, the Silicon Valley firms continue to operate as uncontrolled control freaks that ruthlessly explore any conceivable angle of human behavior and existence with their search algorithms.

Conclusion

A country where democracy is rendered so dysfunctional, where Republican politicians mostly act as shameless cover-up artists, as well as deniers, aiders and abetters of corporate malfeasance, is really a nation that lives in the permanent state of impotence.

In such a nation, bringing about the common good if it occurs is a matter of happening purely accidentally, not the consequence of serious policymaking.

In such a nation, it is also no surprise that Donald Trump is getting away with so much. The 45th U.S. President is frantically working 24/7/365 at bringing out the basest of instincts in the American public. Congressional Republicans will see to it that nothing stops him. Thats just another sign of American impotence.

This article is republished fromThe Globalist: On a daily basis, we rethink globalization and how the world really hangs together. Thought-provoking cross-country comparisons and insights from contributors from all continents. Exploring what unites and what divides us in politics and culture. Follow us onFacebookandTwitter.And sign up for ourhighlights email here.

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U.S. democracy and the age of American impotence - Salon

Humans are susceptible to cons. We're even more likely to fall for larger-than-life personalities. This isn't me writing about the vague "other humans" out there, the ones that you and I (wink, wink) know exist but would never fall victim to. As economist and journalist, Tim Harford the author of the bestselling book, The Undercover Economist recently told me, the con is "baked into" human nature.

Yet, as he explores in his excellent new podcast, "Cautionary Tales," we can learn from past mistakes. Take a few deep breaths, count to 10, make better decisions decisions, he points out on his podcast, that can save lives. We can better educate ourselves to learn about things we think we know about but actually do not.

Part of Pushkin Industries, the company co-founded by Malcolm Gladwell and Jacob Weisberg, Harford joins Gladwell and Michael Lewis for a series that explores the meaning behind both historical and modern-day events. In the debut episode, Harford discusses the tragic Torrey Canyon reef crash in 1967, which dumped 120,000 short tons of crude oil into the waters near Cornwall. The captain's inability to change course is, in itself, a lesson about the value of admitting mistakes and putting our new-found knowledge into action.

In episode two, we hear the story of Wilhelm Voigt, a Berlin native that isn't a captain but played one in society, an incredible story that shows us the depths of our beliefs in powerful con men. Harford discusses the political consequences of such cons during our interview. I'm sure you can guess where that conversation ends up.

As with Revisionist History and Against the Rules, "Cautionary Tales" is a welcome addition to podcasting. Humans might fall for cons and be unwilling to own up to mistakes, but we're also animals with a deep love for storytelling. Harford excels at that medium, both in writing and narration. The podcast is a pleasure to listen to and, bonus, you might just learn something along the way.

A powerful way to unleash your natural creativity | Tim Harford

Derek: Your new podcast is on Pushkin, which has this vibe of radio from a century ago. It's not just people talking; there's music, sound effects, and acting involved. Why did you go that route with "Cautionary Tales"?

Tim: One of the things that quickly became clear as I was looking at the stories that I wanted to tell is that very often these are stories where we don't have tape. We don't have a lot of archival footage. Very often there was nobody there when it happened. The journalist showed up afterwards; in some casesthere's one story that's two and a half thousand years oldwe don't have tapes.

What do you do? Well, you can do the usual thing, which is to put an expert in an arm chair and ask him or her to explain what happened. We wanted to do something different. These little historical reenactments are like fresh herbs and spices throughout the podcast. These little scenes include a very different way to access a story that you wouldn't have another way to tell.

Derek: Your show is billed as "the science behind what happens." There has long been a replication problem in science. I know you mostly deal with the social sciences, but what was your training in science and why did you choose what you chose when approaching a topic?

Tim: It's a very good point because of the replication crisisI think crisis is the right word. One of the issues is people looking for the perfectly counter-intuitive results, the thing that's just weird enough to be surprising and yet not so weird that you completely dismiss it. There's a lot of psychology published that has been filtered through that medium. I'm coming at it from a slightly different angle.

Rather than the coolest new study that might surprise you, I'm saying, "This thing happened, this oil tanker hit the rocks or this economist was the most famous economist in the world and he went bankrupt or they gave the Oscar to the wrong movie." Start with that story and then say, "What is it that social scientists can tell us about that story? What are the explanations?" Very often you find there's more than one explanation. There's usually no single cause. Then the question is: What explains it? What do the people who have thought hard about this sort of thing make of these accidents?

I talk about Milgram's experiments, but I try to remind people that a lot of the experiments that he did were not reported. These are very famous electric shock and obedience experiments. I'm trying to pick that apart and think about what modern psychologists now make of those experiments of what they think those experiments really tell usto not to be uncritical in the way that I think about these studies.

Derek: I've read that study in many different contexts. The way you frame it about being an example not of obedience, but of a willingness to admit our mistakes, is really important. Why are we so unwilling to admit when we're wrong?

Tim: That's a big question. In some cases it's a social thing. In politics, for example, you don't want to admit that you're wrong because you're conceding ground to the other side and you don't want to lose faith socially. You don't want to lose political advantage. In other cases, you personally have committed so much to a particular viewpoint that it becomes extraordinarily painful to face up to the error.

This is the old idea of cognitive dissonance, which I explore in an episode about John Maynard Keynes and Irving Fisher, two great economists and their forecasting. Long story short, both are geniuses; both get really into stock market investing. One goes bankrupt; one dies a millionaire. What explains the differences?

One of them is willing to admit he made a mistake and one is not. Irving Fisher is more exposed. He's more publicly committed. He's going to lose face socially. But he's also too deep in debt to admit "I'm getting this wrong, I need to change direction." It's more painful to the sense of who he is, which the guy who doesn't make mistakes.

There's a third problem, which is something I emphasized in Adapt: We didn't know we made a mistake. No one ever tells you that you made a mistake; no one ever gives you the feedback. That's a very common problem.

Derek: Your podcast is supposed to help us learn from our mistakes. How do you help people actually learn what is in their best interest? Is that even possible?

Tim: This is something I explore in the final episode, which is about what happens when we just hand over our process to an authority figure or to a computer algorithm. What happens when we just let our GPS tell us where to go? One of the really interesting groups of studies that I talk about in that episode is what happens when you are forced to stop and think. These studies explore something called the illusion of explanatory depth.

In the initial study, they say, "How well do you reckon that you know how a flush laboratory works on a scale of zero to seven?" People will say, "Oh yeah, maybe six." Then the researchers say, "That's really interesting. Here's a pen and paper. Just explain to us in detail how it works." People get really stuck because they realize they don't know how it works. It was all a bit vague. They weren't lying to the researchers; they were lying to themselves. They felt that they understood this everyday object and they didn't.

The next study asked the same questions but about politics. It's by a different group of researchers. They said, "Tell us how a cap and trade system works. Tell us how the US will apply unilateral sanctions on Iran. How does that actually work?" People often feel they know pretty well what these policies are. Then again, when you ask them to explain, not to advocate, don't tell me whether it's a good idea, just tell me what it is. Again, people go, "Ah hmm. Uh hmm. I thought I knew but I don't know."

What's fascinating is that people's views about politics become more moderate. They think, quite reasonably, "Maybe my previous view that I was willing to die in a ditch to defend cap and trade or to prevent cap and trade, maybe that view that I thought was super important, maybe I shouldn't hold that view so strongly anymore given that I didn't really understand what it is that I'm talking about."

Not in every Cautionary Tale, but it comes up again and again, is that if you can calm down and slow down, whatever terrible thing happened wouldn't have happened if somebody had been able to count to 10 and think about what was going on.

Derek: When I was listening to episode two, I was reminded of a story growing up. There was a sporting goods chain called Herman's. Two men walked in, went to the back of the store, and grabbed a canoe. They put it over their heads and walked out of the store. It took 20 minutes for anyone to realize that they stole it.

Tim: Because they just walked right out as if they had bought it.

Derek: You say the judge, at the end of "The Captain of Kpenick," goes down and shakes Voigt's hand even though he admitted his crime and was a con man. What do we learn from that?

Tim: We're tremendously subjected to appearances. I wish I had a silver bullet for that one, some pill you could take that would cure us of that. I talk about the fact that just being tall is tremendously advantageous if you're running for political office.

Tim Harford: What Prison Camps Can Teach You About the Economy

Derek: I'm six-three, so I appreciated that.

Tim: Yeah, me too. As far as presidents go, that's not that tall. When you look at it, it's like they're picking a basketball team. It's a myth that the taller candidate always wins, but it definitely seems to be an advantage. The example of appearances matching the eye that I just can't get my head around is the adverts where the guy says, "I'm not a doctor, I just play one on TV," as though it's the most natural thing in the world. And it clearly works! That that advert ran for a long time is absolutely astonishing.

Even this particular con man, Wilhelm Voigt, would not have said, "I'm not actually a military captain. I'm just wearing the uniform." Of course, I can't help but think of a certain president who's most famous for playing a successful business man on TV. He's famous for acting as a businessman. It makes a huge difference to how we perceive the world.

Derek: Do we ever get over that? Is that something we can teach out of ourselves?

Tim: I have never seen a piece of research that says there is a cure for that. That is why, for example, blind recruitment processes and blind audition processes are so powerful. Claudia Goldin and Cecilia Rouse studied what happens when the great American orchestras switched to blind auditions. They thought they were doing it to prevent discrimination against particular students who have powerful teachers; they didn't only want the "in crowd" to be recruited. They put up screens so you wouldn't know who was playing. Surprise, surprise, suddenly a load of women who previously wouldn't thought to be good enough were being recruited.

It's not enough to just tell people, "You shouldn't discriminate against women. Hey, don't be too impressed by uniforms. Treat people who don't look attractive the same way as you treat attractive people." You can tell people that, but I'm not sure it makes a great deal of difference. We can, again, slow down, have a think, and ask ourselves, "Am I overweighting this person's appearance? Am I favoring this person for president because they they look presidential rather than this other person who doesn't seem to look like what I imagined the president to look like?"

I don't think there is an easy cure for that. That's heavily baked in human nature. It's simpler with con artists. If you can slow them down and slow yourself down enough, you can usually spot the con. With a more subtle influence, like who we want to run our companies and who we want to run our country, appearances are always going to matter.

--

Stay in touch with Derek on Twitter and Facebook.

Read the rest here:
How has the internet splintered our democracy? - Big Think

On Wednesday, 75 people gathered at Alumni Hall to close out Youth-Nexs program entitled Dialoging for Democracy: Youth Moral Reasoning and Social Justice. The two-day symposium invited researchers, policy makers, professors and students to discuss how to promote productive conversations about democracy and social justice.

This is Youth-Nexs seventh annual symposium. Youth-Nex is a 10-year-old Curry school program that promotes the application of Positive Youth Development sciences to enhance youth education.

Nancy Deutsch, director of Youth-Nex and a professor in the Curry school, said that the symposium comes from the organizations effort to bring together people who share a commitment to supporting positive youth development, but who may not always be the same spaces or draw on the same sources of information and knowledge.

She also noted that the program is critical for people involved in youth development because it encouraged a collaboration of ideas from different practices.

We invited researchers, practitioners and young people who we knew were doing cutting edge work in this field and/or who have been leaders in advancing our understanding of these developmental processes and practices to speak at the conference, Deutsch said.

According to Deutsch, this years theme relates to projects that Youth-Nex and the Curry School of Education are undertaking with different partners such as the Center for Race and Public Education in the South around the development of teachers resources for teaching democracy.

Deutsch described what Dialoging for Democracy meant and said it referred to supporting young people in their activism.

I believe that youth development issues are social justice issues, and that part of our work as a center should be to support young people in making change that promotes equity, and this years conference reflects that, Deutsch said.

Youth-Nexs emphasis on young activists comes from a belief that while young people are the future of democracy, they also currently participate in creating social changes. According to Deutsch, the symposium highlighted how too often schools and other youth serving spaces dont support young peoples democratic engagement or are not equipped to have the kinds of dialogues, debates, and discussions that are required for a participatory democracy to thrive. This failure ultimately comes from inadequate development of kids ability to hold productive conversations with people they disagree with and have their voices be heard.

We wanted to discuss the foundations of moral reasoning as a developmental process from an empirical standpoint as well as highlight programs that are engaging youth in the kinds of activities that promote democratic engagement and moral reasoning, as well as amplify youths own voices in discussions of how this work should be done, Deutsch said.

Some programs highlighted at the symposium included Camp Common Ground, Teen Empowerment and Side by Side Youth Leadership Council. All these groups are dedicated to instilling leadership qualities in kids and thus changing peoples perspective of them from being at-risk to instead having opportunities available.

On the second day of the program, a panel was held that included Deutsch along with Derrick Aldrige, a professor of Education; Melody Barnes, a professor of Public Affairs and former assistant to President Obama; and Patrick Tolan, a professor of Education. They tackled questions such as What is democracy? and What is the role of dialogue in democracy?

This dialogue centered for instance on Deutschs seven-year-old daughters frustration in school, as her daughter said that the school was trying to tame her. The panel then discussed how society needs to harness young peoples energy instead, discussing how student council should change to model American democracy more accurately and encouraging youth citizenship programs so kids can lead more productive conversations.

We need kids to think about how education is liberation We need to recognize that we participate in history and not exist outside of it, Aldridge said.

After this talk, Josue Sarmiento, Haisell Franco and Sofhia Pineda presented their movie Nosotros, a film about Latinx students at Albemarle High School.

The films purpose is to challenge stereotypes of immigrants and detail the struggles immigrants face in adjusting to life in the United States, said Sarmineto.

In the closing remarks of the program, Deutsch asked the audience to write on a sticky note something they will do as a result of attending the program. Answers ranged from revitalizing programs that instill citizenship in youths to allowing children to participate in discussions about the operations of their school.

This all echoed the closing ceremonys message provided by Johari Harris, a research associate at the University, who said, People love youth voice but need adult action. Thats why youth talk alongside adults, so adults can go forth and create change on behalf of youths.

CORRECTION: This article previously misspelled Johari Harris' first name and has been updated for accuracy.

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Curry School program hosts two day symposium on dialogue and democracy - University of Virginia The Cavalier Daily