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Afghanistan is back in the news. Wednesday, 2 U.S. servicemembers were killed in a suicide bombing attack. Already this year, U.S. airstrikes are at their highest level since 2012, and President Trump is considering sending up to 3,000 more troops to support the 8,400 Americans already serving there.

Why does the AfPak region remain a hotbed of terrorist plotting and violence? General John W. Nicholson, commander of U.S. and NATO forces in Afghanistan, notes that of the 98 designated terrorist organizations around the globe, 20 of them operate in the region. Its an exceptional concentration, and just one reason why the U.S. must remain engaged in Afghanistan.

Yet for some years now, voices on both the right and left have urged American withdrawal. That would be a mistake. As America and its allies have drawn down troops in Afghanistan, Al Qaeda has been quietly strengthening its hand.

The terrorist group has proved adept at retaining allies in the region, then working alongside them to strengthen the terrorist movement as a whole. Lets focus on just three of these allies.

First, there is the Taliban. Many in the West believe they can be peeled off from Al Qaeda at the negotiating table. That seems highly unlikely. Despite multiple changes of leadership, the two groups have reaffirmed allegiance to each other after every change. Its not just talk. The two continue to work together militarily.

Al Qaeda also retains its ties to the Haqqani network (HQN). In the immediate aftermath of the allied invasion of Afghanistan, the AfPak insurgent group helped al-Qaeda establish itself in Pakistani tribal areas. The groups continue to work hand-in-glove.

Intelligence officials recently told Fox News that Al Qaeda provides fighters, expertise and material support to HQN when needed and several times its members have participated in joint operations with the Taliban and HQN. Indeed, a senior HQN leader has commented that there is no distinction between us [and Al Qaeda] we are all one.

Then there is Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). Formed in December 2007, its an umbrella group drawing terrorists from various Pashtun Pakistani groups. TTP provided the training to Faisal Shahzad, the Times Square bomber. Back then CIA Director John Brennan noted that TTP and AQ train together, they plan together, they plot together. They are almost indistinguishable.

That remains true. TTP publicly confirmed that senior al-Qaeda leaders such as Qari Muhammad Yasin killed in an air strike in March 2017 worked closely with their group up until the time of his death.

In addition forging alliances in Afghanistan, Al-Qaeda still uses it as a training base--most notably for its newest affiliate, Al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS).

Terrorism expert Bill Roggio says AQIS has likely drawn members from al-Qaeda allies such as TTP, Harakat-ul-Muhajideen, Jaish-e-Mohammad, Lashkar-e-Jhangvi and the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan. AQIS is a regional threat, focused on carrying out attacks on military targets in Bangladesh, Burma, India and Pakistan.

In October 2015, the U.S. launched one of the largest joint ground-assault operations we have ever conducted in Afghanistan. The target: two AQIS training camps that, in total, covered around 30 square miles. The U.S. commander said it was probably the largest Al Qaeda training camp found since the war began.

That such a training camp could exist in 2015 speaks to a broader problem of the U.S. consistently underestimating Al Qaedas strength. Last year, the U.S. killed or captured 250 Al Qaeda figures. Thomas Joscelyn, a leading expert on al-Qaeda points out, This was two and half times the American governments long-held, high-end estimate for Al Qaedas entire presence in the country.

Underestimating Al Qaeda in Afghanistan had devastating consequences on 9/11. We cannot make the same mistake again. The ongoing terrorist threat emanating from Afghanistan remains a compelling reason for the U.S. to remain committed to the fight there. (And I have not even discussed ISIS, which has its own affiliate in the country).

Unfortunately, the Afghan security forces are not yet trained to such a standard that they can execute this vital counter-terrorism task alone. So the nature of the Western commitment must involve troops not just from the U.S., but across NATO. These troops will not be able to transform Afghanistan into a paragon of democracy and liberty, nor should they try to.

But additional troops will be able to help maintain security in a country rife with terrorist groups that still pose a very clear danger to innocent lives around the world.

Robin Simcox is the Margaret Thatcher Fellow in the Davis Institute for National Security and Foreign Policy at The Heritage Foundation (heritage.org).

Originally posted here:
Afghanistan in crisis: Why is the region still a hotbed of terrorism and violence? - Fox News

The US carrier was "unprofessional and provocative" Friday, the IRGC navy said in a statement Saturday.

CNN has asked the US Navy for a response.

The USS Nimitz and a second American ship dispatched a helicopter near an oil and gas platform and approached Iranian ships, the IRGC navy said.

Iranian vessels ignored the warning flares, and the American ships later left the area, the Iranian navy added.

This is the latest in a series of encounters involving the two navies.

On Tuesday, a US Navy ship fired warning shots at an armed Iranian patrol boat in the northern end of the Persian Gulf, according to two US defense officials.

The officials said the Iranian boat is believed to have been operated by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

It approached and came within 150 yards of the USS Thunderbolt, a US Navy patrol ship.

The Navy ship fired warning shots into the water over concerns of a collision, one of the officials said.

Pentagon spokesman US Navy Capt. Jeff Davis previously told reporters that there had been 35 incidents of unsafe or unprofessional behavior by Iranian vessels in 2016, although the "vast majority" had occurred in the first half of that year.

In June, the US military labeled the actions of an Iranian vessel "unsafe and unprofessional" after it trained a laser on a US helicopter that was accompanying a formation of American ships transiting the international waters of the Strait of Hormuz.

No warning shots were fired during that encounter, but US defense officials criticized the use of the Iranian laser.

In April, the US accused a a guard corps ship of acting in an "unprofessional but also provocative" manner while approaching an American destroyer, the USS Mahan, while it was sailing in the Persian Gulf.

Continued here:
Iran says US Navy fired warning flares at its vessels - CNN.com

The sanctions, announced jointly by the Justice, State and Treasury departments, designated 18 individuals and entities that the administration said were involved in activities that included missile development, software theft and weapons procurement.

The United States remains deeply concerned about Irans malign activities across the Middle East, which undermine regional stability, security, and prosperity, the announcement said.

The move came less than 12 hours after Mr. Trump reluctantly agreed to declare that Iran had honored the 2015 agreement. By law, the president must make such a declaration every 90 days.

The missile launched on Thursday is known as a Simorgh, or Phoenix, missile, which experts said was a copy of North Koreas Unha space-launch rocket. Irans national news channel said its missile was capable of placing satellites weighing up to 550 pounds into a 310-mile low earth orbit.

Nader Karimi Joni, a journalist close to the government of President Hassan Rouhani of Iran, said the launch on Thursday was a reaction to the House vote on Tuesday approving the new sanctions. The legislation will now go to the Senate, although it is unclear when the measure will be voted on there.

Iran is boosting its missile capabilities to order to increase the accuracy, preciseness and range, Mr. Joni said. Iran will not stop the missile projects.

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Iran Reports Successful Launch of Missile as U.S. Considers ...

A much-hyped Tehran space launch turned out to be a dud, as the Iranian Simorgh rocket suffered a "catastrophic failure" shortly after liftoff on Thursday and likely blew up before it reached space, two U.S. officials told Fox News.

On Thursday, U.S. Strategic Command, which monitors launches around the world, could only confirm a satellite was not deployed from the rocket. But fresh intelligence assessments on Friday confirmed yet another failure by the Islamic Republic in its mission to place an operational satellite into orbit --something Tehran has never done before, despite repeated attempts over the past few years.

Officials have long been concerned the technology used to put a satellite into space could also be repurposed to make a long-range ballistic missile capable of one day potentially hitting the U.S. The Simorgh rocket is based on a North Korean design.

Iran's state media on Thursday claimed the launch was successful, but U.S. spy agencies quickly determined that assessment was more propaganda than fact.

But even though it failed, Iran's attempted rocket launch succeeded in violating United Nations Security Council Resolution 2231, State Department spokeswoman Heather Nauert said.

Critics of the UN resolution -- which went into effect days after the landmark Iran nuclear agreement two years ago -- say the language is purposefully weak, however, and does not forbid Iran from carrying out such tests. The resolution states Iran is merely "called upon" not to conduct such rocket and missile tests.

"We would consider that a violation of UNSCR 2231," Nauert said flatly. "We consider that to be continued ballistic missile development."

Lucas Tomlinson is the Pentagon and State Department producer for Fox News Channel. You can follow him on Twitter: @LucasFoxNews

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Iran rocket suffered 'catastrophic failure,' likely blew up ...

ISTANBUL New U.S. sanctions targeting Iran are a breach of its nuclear deal with world powers and an attempt to abolish the accord, Iranian officials said Thursday, adding that the government will respond to what it sees as an escalation of U.S. aggression.

We believe that the nuclear deal has been violated, and we will react appropriately, Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on state television Thursday.

The deal curbed Irans nuclear activities in exchange for the removal of some sanctions, while the new measures target anyone involved in Irans ballistic missile program and its powerful Revolutionary Guard Corps.

The belief in Washington is that . . . Iran must be put under pressure, Araghchi said. And the goal of the new sanctions, signed by President Trump on Wednesday, is to destroy the 2015 agreement so that Iran will withdraw.

The administration has criticized the deal for its narrow focus on the nuclear program, without addressing issues such as Irans support for proxy militias and its growing ballistic missile arsenal. Trump has questioned the utility of the agreement, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said in remarks at the State Department on Tuesday.

The agreement dealt with a very small slice of Irans threats, Tillerson said. It was kind of like we put blinders on and just ignored all those other things.

But even as the United States ramps up pressure on Iran including threats to leave the pact officials in Tehran have moved cautiously in response, weighing the cost of potential conflict with the benefits of remaining part of the deal.

Before the agreement, which ended the countrys isolation, Iran probably would have balked at calls for diplomacy. As a regional power, it has defied the international community, building up missile defense and backing proxy forces across the region.

[Power struggle escalates between Irans president and hard-liners]

But under the nuclear deal, Iran has rejoined the global economy and is now keen to avoid blame for the collapse of the agreement. Trump recently certified Irans compliance with the deal, an authorization he is required to make to Congress every 90 days, but has suggested he may not do so again in the fall, without saying why.

President Trump made clear that, in terms of the fate of the nuclear deal, the administrations latest certification of Iranian compliance was only a temporary reprieve a stay of execution, said Robert Malley, who served as the White House coordinator for the Middle East under President Barack Obama.

So far, Iran has appeared content to sit back and allow the [Trump] administration to further isolate itself on the nuclear deal, said Malley, who is now vice president of policy for the Brussels-based International Crisis Group. But that calculus could change.

Iran, experts say, could continue to adhere to the agreement and seek assurances from Europe and Russia that they would refuse any U.S. attempt to renegotiate. The European Union has countered Trumps calls to ditch the accord, reminding the administration that it belongs to the international community.

If the White House decided to declare Iran noncompliant, it would probably be based on little to no valid evidence, said Richard Nephew, former coordinator for sanctions policy at the State Department.

But Iran could still push the technical limits of the deal with small incremental steps that restart its nuclear program, he said.

It could also restart all of its nuclear activity, which it says is for peaceful purposes, or use its military assets or proxy forces to strike U.S. interests in the region.

Iran and the United States have skirmished in the waters of the Persian Gulf, where the U.S. Navy stations its 5th Fleet. American forces and militias loyal to Iran also fight in proximity in Iraq and Syria, where they are both battling the Islamic State.

Having Iranian proxies take aim at the U.S. presence in Iraq or Syria could trigger powerful U.S. retaliation, which quickly could snowball, Malley said.

[The United States and Europe are on a collision course over Iran]

According to Ali Vaez, senior Iran analyst at the International Crisis Group, rising tensions could push Iran to double down on means of deterrence it considers essential to its national security, including missile defense and support for regional proxies.

Last week, Iran successfully fired its satellite-carrying Simorgh launch vehicle into space, prompting the U.S. Treasury Department to come back with more sanctions.

Irans parliament, reacting to the sanctions bill as it made its way through Congress, recently fast-tracked funding for the countrys ballistic missile program and Revolutionary Guard Corps.

According to Abbas Aslani, world news editor at Irans privately run Tasnim news agency, Iran will not violate the nuclear agreement but neither will it abandon or compromise on its defense capabilities, including the missile program.

Irans hard-liners, many of whom opposed the deal as one that granted too many concessions, may use the tensions to press for some sort of retaliation. The deal was negotiated under Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, a moderate recently elected to a second term.

He fired back at domestic critics Thursday at a ceremony marking his formal endorsement by Irans supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has the final word on all matters of the state.

Iran survived some of the toughest sanctions through a combination of the power of diplomacy and deterrent defensive power, the Associated Press quoted Rouhani as saying. During his second term, Iran will insist on constructive engagement more than before.

But it is unclear how long Rouhani will maintain his pro-diplomacy rhetoric, which has already become increasingly more critical of the Trump administration, said Farzan Sabet, a fellow at Stanford Universitys Center for International Security and Cooperation.

Still, conflict between the United States and Iran is not preordained, Malley said, and both sides could back down.

But that means that the survival of the nuclear deal and avoidance of military conflict depend on the Trump administration showing restraint and the Iranian regime displaying wisdom, he said. Given what we know of the two, what are the odds of that?

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Iran calls new US sanctions a violation of nuclear deal - Washington Post