Mediaboss Marketing

But in interviews with more than 75 Republicans at every level of the party, elected officials, donors and strategists expressed widespread uncertainty about whether Mr. Trump would be on the ballot in 2020 and little doubt that others in the party are engaged in barely veiled contingency planning.

They see weakness in this president, said Senator John McCain, Republican of Arizona. Look, its not a nice business were in.

Mr. Trump changed the rules of intraparty politics last year when he took down some of the leading lights of the Republican Party to seize the nomination. Now a handful of hopefuls are quietly discarding traditions that would have dictated, for instance, the respectful abstention from speaking at Republican dinners in the states that kick off the presidential nomination process.

In most cases, the shadow candidates and their operatives have signaled that they are preparing only in case Mr. Trump is not available in 2020. Most significant, multiple advisers to Mr. Pence have already intimated to party donors that he would plan to run if Mr. Trump did not.

Mr. Kasich has been more defiant: The Ohio governor, who ran unsuccessfully in 2016, has declined to rule out a 2020 campaign in multiple television interviews, and has indicated to associates that he may run again, even if Mr. Trump seeks another term.

Mr. Kasich, who was a sharp critic of the Republicans failed attempt to repeal the Affordable Care Act with deep Medicaid cuts, intends to step up his advocacy by convening a series of policy forums, in Ohio and around the country.

Hell continue to speak out and lead on health care and on national security issues, trade policy, economic expansion and poverty, John Weaver, a political adviser of Mr. Kasichs, said.

In the wider world of conservative Trump opponents, William Kristol, editor at large of The Weekly Standard, said he had begun informal conversations about creating a Committee Not to Renominate the President.

We need to take one shot at liberating the Republican Party from Trump, and conservatism from Trumpism, Mr. Kristol said.

It may get worse, said Jay Bergman, an Illinois petroleum executive and a leading Republican donor. Grievous setbacks in the midterm elections of 2018 could bolster challengers in the party.

If the Republicans have lost a lot of seats in the Congress and they blame Trump for it, then there are going to be people who emerge who are political opportunists, Mr. Bergman said.

Mr. Pence has been the pacesetter. Though it is customary for vice presidents to keep a full political calendar, he has gone a step further, creating an independent power base, cementing his status as Mr. Trumps heir apparent and promoting himself as the main conduit between the Republican donor class and the administration.

The vice president created his own political fund-raising committee, Great America Committee, shrugging off warnings from some high-profile Republicans that it would create speculation about his intentions. The group, set up with help from Jack Oliver, a former fund-raiser for George W. Bush, has overshadowed Mr. Trumps own primary outside political group, America First Action, even raising more in disclosed donations.

Here are a few of the political events that Vice President Mike Pence has attended:

Mr. Pence also installed Nick Ayers, a sharp-elbowed political operative, as his new chief of staff last month a striking departure from vice presidents long history of elevating a government veteran to be their top staff member. Mr. Ayers had worked on many campaigns but never in the federal government.

Some in the partys establishment wing are remarkably open about their wish that Mr. Pence would be the Republican standard-bearer in 2020, Representative Charlie Dent of Pennsylvania said.

For some, it is for ideological reasons, and for others it is for stylistic reasons, Mr. Dent said, complaining of the exhausting amount of instability, chaos and dysfunction surrounding Mr. Trump.

Mr. Pence has made no overt efforts to separate himself from the beleaguered president. He has kept up his relentless public praise and even in private is careful to bow to the president.

Mr. Pences aides, however, have been less restrained in private, according to two people briefed on the conversations. In a June meeting with Al Hubbard, an Indiana Republican who was a top economic official in Mr. Bushs White House, an aide to the vice president, Marty Obst, said that they wanted to be prepared to run in case there was an opening in 2020 and that Mr. Pence would need Mr. Hubbards help, according to a Republican briefed on the meeting. Reached on the phone, Mr. Hubbard declined to comment.

Mr. Ayers has signaled to multiple major Republican donors that Mr. Pence wants to be ready.

Mr. Obst denied that he and Mr. Ayers had made any private insinuations and called suggestions that the vice president wass positioning himself for 2020 beyond ridiculous.

For his part, Mr. Pence is methodically establishing his own identity and bestowing personal touches on people who could pay dividends in the future. He not only spoke in June at one of the most important yearly events for Iowa Republicans, Senator Joni Ernsts pig roast, but he held a separate, more intimate gathering for donors afterward.

When he arrived in Des Moines on Air Force Two, Mr. Pence was greeted by an Iowan who had complained about his experience with the Affordable Care Act and who happened to be a member of the state Republican central committee.

The vice president has also turned his residence at the Naval Observatory into a hub for relationship building. In June, he opened the mansion to social conservative activists like Tony Perkins of the Family Research Council and representatives of the billionaire kingmakers Charles G. and David H. Koch.

At large gatherings for contributors, Mr. Pence keeps a chair free at each table so he can work his way around the room. At smaller events for some of the partys biggest donors, he lays on the charm. Last month, Mr. Pence hosted the Kentucky coal barons Kelly and Joe Craft, along with the University of Kentucky mens basketball coach, John Calipari, for a dinner a few hours after Ms. Craft appeared before the Senate for her hearing as nominee to become ambassador to Canada.

Other Republicans eyeing the White House have taken note.

They see him moving around, having big donors at the house for dinner, said Charles R. Black Jr., a veteran of Republican presidential politics. And theyve got to try to keep up.

Mr. Cotton, for example, is planning a two-day, $5,000-per-person fund-raiser in New York next month, ostensibly for Senate Republicans (and his own eventual re-election campaign). The gathering will include a dinner and a series of events at the Harvard Club, featuring figures well known in hawkish foreign policy circles such as Stephen Hadley, Mr. Bushs national security adviser.

Mr. Cotton, 40, a first-term Arkansas senator, made headlines for going to Iowa last year during the campaign. He was back just after the election for a birthday party in Des Moines for former Gov. Terry E. Branstad and returned in May to give the keynote speech at a county Republican dinner in Council Bluffs.

Mr. Sasse, among the sharpest Senate Republican critics of Mr. Trump, has quietly introduced himself to political donors in language that several Republicans have found highly suggestive, describing himself as an independent-minded conservative who happens to caucus with Republicans in the Senate. Advisers to Mr. Sasse, of Nebraska, have discussed creating an advocacy group to help promote his agenda nationally.

He held a private meet-and-greet last month with local Republican leaders in Iowa, where he lamented the plodding pace of Capitol Hill and declined to recant his past criticism of Mr. Trump.

Jennifer Horn, a former chairwoman of the New Hampshire Republican Party who hosted Mr. Sasse in the first primary state last year, said she saw the senator as speaking for conservatives who felt that Republicans in Washington had not been delivering on their promises.

There are a lot of people in New Hampshire who have developed a lot of respect for him, and Im one of them, she said.

James Wegmann, a spokesman for Mr. Sasse, said the only future date that Mr. Sasse had in mind was Nov. 24, 2017, when the University of Iowa meets the University of Nebraska on the football field.

Huskers-Hawkeyes rematch, Mr. Wegmann said, and like every Nebraskan, hes betting on the side of righteousness.

Beyond Washington, other up-and-coming Republicans are making moves should there be an opening in 2020. Nikki Haley, the ambassador to the United Nations and a former governor of South Carolina, put her longtime pollster on the payroll, has gotten better acquainted with some of New Yorks financiers and carved out a far more muscular foreign policy niche than Mr. Trump.

She sounds more like me than Trump, said Senator Lindsey Graham, a hawkish Republican from South Carolina.

Read more here:
Republican Shadow Campaign for 2020 Takes Shape as Trump Doubts Grow - New York Times

President Trump alternately cajoles and berates Congress as he struggles to find legislative wins in key issues he campaigned on. (Jenny Starrs/The Washington Post)

We're going to win so much, you're going to get tired of winning, then-candidate Donald Trump said in February 2016. Youre going to say: Please, Mr. President, I have a headache. Please, don't win so much. This is getting terrible. And I'm going to say, No, we have to make America great again. You're gonna say, Please. I said: Nope, nope. We're gonna keep winning.

Republicans may still like President Trump, but they aren't yet tired of winning not even close. In fact, more Republican and GOP-leaning voters say their side is losing on the issues that matter to them, according to a new poll.

ThePew Research Center poll shows that42 percent of GOP and GOP-leaning voters say their side has been winning more on the important issues, while 46 percent say their side has been losing.

That's better than Democrats, of course, who control nothing in Washington. Just 15 percent of them say they are winning more; 79 percent say they are losing more.

The share of Republicans who say they are winning is pretty subpar. Back in September 2015, 40 percent of Democrats felt they were winning more, vs. 52 percent who felt they were losing that was when much of President Barack Obama's agenda had stalled and the GOP had gained control of Congress. So with full control of Washington, barely more Republicans feel they are winning (42 percent) than Democrats who said the same when they had only the president and four-plus years of Washington gridlock.

I know, I know: When Trump talked about winning so much, he wasn't necessarily talking about in a partisansense. Republicans may feel that America as a whole is winning even if the GOP agenda isn't necessarily notching a bunch of victories, legislatively speaking.

But asking the question in this way is a bit more revealing than asking whether people like or approve of Trump or think the country iswinning. Responses to those questions tend to be dripping with partisanship and draw pretty predictable answers. People don't want to look like they are criticizing a president with whom they share a party affiliation and for whom they may have real affection.

This is more of a measure of bona fide political progress for your side of the debate, and Republicans clearly aren't tired or even a little drowsy of the winning that they've been doing.

And as Philip Bump pointed out this week, there are signs that the GOP base is souring, ever so slightly, on Trump. Just more than half 53 percent of Republicans had a strongly favorable view of him in a new Quinnipiac poll; that's down from a previous low of 62 percent in Quinnipiac's regular polling.

Absent a win on health care or any other major piece of legislation, it's hard to claim that the GOP side has truly been winning much of anything in Washington, at least as far as the issues are concerned.

The question is increasingly when Republicans will get tired oflosing. And that seems to be setting in, at least to some degree, when you dig a little deeper into the polling numbers.

More here:
Republicans aren't tired of winning under Trump. In fact, more think they're losing. - Washington Post

A year after primary victories, moderate Republicans brace for 2018 Wichita Eagle Moderate Republicans in Kansas made national headlines when they ousted a number of conservative lawmakers a year ago, ultimately contributing to the demise of Gov. Sam Brownback's tax cuts. In another year, many will face their first reelection battle.

Visit link:
A year after primary victories, moderate Republicans brace for 2018 - Wichita Eagle

As the Democratic Partyleadership attemptsto rebrand the party as populist with itsBetter Deal agenda,establishmentDemocratshave already startedtoconsider whichcandidateto getbehind for the2020 electionand, perhaps unsurprisingly, the top picks arentexactly populists.

According to a Politicoreporton Tuesday,former President Barack Obama and his allies have begun to encourage former Massachusetts governor Deval Patrick, who is currently a managing director at Bain Capital (thats Mitt Romneys old firm), to run for the nominationin three years. Other wings of the Democraticestablishmentseem to be leaning toward Sen. Kamala Harris of California, Sen. Cory Booker of New Jersey, and former Vice President Joe Biden, who will be 77 years old in 2020.

Not surprisingly, progressives have notgreeted theseprospectivecandidates with open arms. Harris, for example, who is undeniably becoming a star in the Democratic Party, has beencriticizedby activists who were connected tothe Bernie Sanders campaign. She is the preferred candidate of extremely wealthy and out-of-touch Democratic party donors,saidWinnie Wong, co-founder of People for Bernie, toMic. Her recent anointing is extremely telling. These donors will line her coffers ahead of 2020 and she will have the next two years to craft a message of broad appeal to a rapidly changing electorate.

There are a number of legitimatecriticisms made against Harris for her recordas California attorney general, includingherfailure to prosecutecurrent Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchins bank for foreclosure violations. But the overall problem progressives seem to have with her is that Harris appears politically inconsistent, and shifts positions wheneverit is convenient. Thats equally true of Cory Booker, a longtime Hillary Clinton ally who hasclose ties to Wall Streetand a history ofsupportingconservative-friendly policies like school privatization. Booker was formerly close to Betsy DeVos, now Trumps secretary of education, andsat on the board of her school choiceadvocacy group.

In response to the left-wing criticisms of thesepotentialcandidates, liberals have adopteda familiarline of attack,rehashingthe 2016 BernieBro narrative, which maintainedthat leftist opposition to Clinton was rooted in sexismrather than politics or ideology. Clinton ally Neera Tanden responded to the aforementioned Mic article this way:

So odd, no, that these folks have if in for Kamala Harris and Cory Booker.... hhhhmmm.

— Neera Tanden? (@neeratanden) July 31, 2017

In a similar vein, feminist author AndiZeisler sarcasticallytweeted this:

The following day,Zeislerclarifiedher position,tweetingthat she had not been sufficiently up on Harris record as attorney general; by then, however, her previous tweet which implied there was no legitimate political basis for opposing Harris had been liked by over 25,000 people.

There seem to be two possible explanations for this line of attack on progressives: Either certain liberals have made the cynical decision to smear their opponents instead of engaging in honest debate, or there is genuine confusion about why politicians like Booker and Harris and Clinton, for that matter are distrustedby people on the left. One suspects that a large percentage of Clinton loyalistsare indeed acting in bad faith, and would rather try todiscredittheir critics many of whom are women and people of color than engage in adebate. But theres no doubt that some are genuinely bewildered by progressive criticismsof the Democratic Party. The Democratic leadership is, after all, starting take on more of a populist tone, while prominent elected Democrats like Booker and Harris have embraced more progressive policies since last years election.

In a recent Jacobinarticlecritiquing the Better Deal platform introduced by the Democrats last month,historian Matt Karp expounded onthe fundamental difference between the populist rhetoric we are currently hearing from neoliberal Democratslike Booker and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, and the authentic populism that was conveyedby the Bernie Sanders campaign last year:

What distinguished the Bernie Sanders campaign more than any other issue including his support for free college or Medicare for All was that he named his enemy. Among his other objectives, Sanderss attacks on the 1 percent were an attempt to reorder American politics around class lines: not with a stale disquisition on stratification, but by tapping into Americans anti-billionaire sentiment, religiously excluded from mainstream politics by both parties but thrumming powerfully just below the surface.

For Democrats, Bad Billionaires like Trump or the Koch brothers represent an existential threat to democracy, but Good Billionaires are vital campaign allies (Michael Bloomberg, Warren Buffett, Mark Cuban), crucial donors and policy shapers (George Soros, Haim Saban), or even possible secretaries of labor (Howard Schultz).

This distinctionreveals the underlyingconflictbetween leftists and liberals. While the former reject the status quoandbelieve that a system that produces billionaires and historic levels of inequalitymust be completelyrestructured, the latter generallyaccept the status quo as fixed, and advocatepiecemeal reform. If to be a radical is to grasp things by the root, as Karl Marx once put it, then to be a liberal, one might say, is to look only at the surface of things.

Needless to say, a neoliberallike Cory Booker, who is beloved byWall Street donorsandpharmaceutical companies, is not likely to challenge the economic status quo, since he is a product of it. One can expectleftists tocontinue criticizing prospectivecandidateswho embody the status quo, irrespectiveof their ethnicity or gender.

Read this article:
First Democratic contenders for 2020 are unveiled: For progressives, it's not an inspiring batch - Salon

Knocking on doors in a doomed bid to win the riding of Vancouver-Fairview ahead of the May election, BC Liberal candidate Gabe Garfinkel says he was confronted with failings that foreshadowed the hurdles ahead for his party, now ousted from power for the first time in 16years.

The riding has swung between Liberals and the NDP in recent elections. This time, it did not swing Mr. Garfinkels way. Despite knocking on more than 8,000 doors over three months, the former aide to ex-premier Christy Clark ended up with only 32 per cent of the vote compared with 54 per cent for the NDP incumbent George Heyman, who is now the environmentminister.

I knocked on the door of a family of doctors who were unable to find affordable housing or access child care. We knew we had a problem, says Mr. Garfinkel, concluding that the party failed to appreciate or acknowledge challenges people in urban areas were facing, such as housing affordability, child care andtransit.

Until last month, the BC Liberals a coalition of federal Liberals and Tories had governed British Columbia for five consecutive majority governments since 2001, one secured in a come-from-behind, unexpected win in the 2013election.

What happened? Beats me, says Mr. Garfinkel. I am not toosure.

Senior Liberals interviewed by The Globe and Mail remain upbeat about the journey ahead, saying the party will emerge in better shape. And observers say that, despite the political drama of the past three months, the party has a strong chance of recovery as a result of some importantfundamentals.

But first, BC Liberals now headed to the opposition benches say they are beginning to grapple with the question that bedevils Mr. Garfinkel and others as the process begins of grinding out an answer aimed at allowing the party to change course for the next electionbegins.

We allowed ourselves to be characterized as a party that doesnt care; that doesnt have a heart, says Jas Johal, a former TV reporter first elected in Richmond in May who served in cabinet for about three weeks before the Liberals were ousted in a confidence vote by the NDP and the BCGreens.

Journalist-turned-MLA JasJohal

Asked how the party was outmanoeuvred, Mr. Johal said, I wasnt there for those 16 years, explaining part of it as the challenges of governing for the party he is now a part of. He is considering a leadershipbid.

Former education minister Mike Bernier, also considering a run for the leadership, said the Liberals did well on economic issues. But at the dinner table, what were people talking about and were welistening?

The MLA from Peace River South thinks they were musing about taking surpluses accumulated on the BC Liberal watch and seeking to allot some of that money to different sectors of society. In this last election, did we try to sit back on our great record? he said in an interview. Maybe we didnt listen to all of the points that people were trying tomake.

After five decades of observing British Columbia politics, political scientist Norman Ruff has seen all kinds of electoral defeat, and says the Liberals are not actually in bad shape. The party won 43 seats compared to 41 for the NDP, and three for the BC Greens. It was hardly a debacle. They faltered in a major way, but it wasnt a major defeat, said the professor emeritus at the University ofVictoria.

Its a party thats going to recover. Its a matter of finding a process by which torecover.

Mike McDonald, campaign director for the Liberals election win in 2013 and a senior adviser in this years election, said the party needs to appeal, anew, to moderate voters in the Lower Mainland who drifted away from the party, allowing the NDP to make gains in the region that is occupied by the most populous cities in theprovince.

The party has got to consider how its message is being heard in the suburbs and address those issues and come up with a refreshed offering forvoters.

Theres a necessary battle plan ahead, says Mr. McDonald. Hold onto the base in the Interior. Hold onto seats it has in the Lower Mainland and Parksville. Win back the seats that it has held traditionally, but lost in thiselection.

Christy Clark, who has had a notable national profile as B.C. premier for the past six years, wont be part of theequation.

A week ago, she told caucus members at a meeting in the Okanagan city of Penticton that she was quitting as leader and giving up her Kelowna West seat. It was a shock for Liberals, who expected she would, at least initially, lead them inopposition.

B.C. Finance Minister Mike de Jong attends a funding announcement at Covenant House in Vancouver in March of2017.

DARRYL DYCK/For The Globe andMail

No one went to Penticton thinking, by the end of the meetings, we would be having the conversation about finding a new leader, says Mike de Jong, the former financeminister.

Ms. Clark said she wanted to get out of the way so the party could adapt to its role in oppositon, and felt it was time to go because there is no likelihood of an imminentelection.

On Friday, the Abbotsford News reported that Abbotsford South MLA Darryl Plecas threatened, in Pencticton, to quit if Ms. Clark did not step down as leader. Mr. Plecas told the paper he felt Ms. Clark and her staff did not listen enough, did not let politicians speak their mind, and should have diverted B.C. surpluses to deal with socialconcerns.

Still, senior Liberals declared that, in the end, Ms. Clark left of her own accord. She wasnt pushed; she jumped, said Ralph Sultan, elected MLA for West Vancouver-Capilano in 2001. Until she announced her exit, conversation among Liberals in Penticton had been about figuring out how to work inopposition.

Many hope the process of finding a new leader to replace Ms. Clark will position the party to make a new case to voters for support. Mr. de Jong says the party has to earn its way back to government with new ideas on key issues. If were serving two minutes in the penalty box, lets put that time to good use, hesaid.

No one has committed to running, but a number of MLAs, including Mr. Johal, former advanced education minister Andrew Wilkinson, former transportation minister Todd Stone, Mr. Bernier and ex-Vancouver mayor Sam Sullivan, a Liberal MLA in central Vancouver, are considering bids. Outside the caucus, former Surrey mayor Dianne Watts, now a Conservative MP, says shes received indications of support, but has made no decision onrunning.

Mr. Sultan says he drafted a list of credible prospects, and came up with a total of 15 names. He declined to release thelist.

BC Liberals say the leadership prize is worth fighting for because the Liberals, or their free-enterprise forerunners Social Credit, have, more often than not, tended to govern the province. The winner has a reasonable shot of governing British Columbia if NDP Premier John Horgan and his team falter, or their governing agreement with the BC Greensbreaks.

Seize the opportunity to refresh, to rebuild, to have conversations around the entire province, and engage as many people aspossible.

Mr. McDonald says a new leader will articulate some approach to dealing with these issues. He sees a fluid leadership race ahead in which the winner will offer a vision that revs up Liberals, and also unites federal Liberals and Conservatives that add up to the BC Liberalcoalition.

He cites the federal Tory leadership race, which took shape over time, as candidates rose and fell in party members esteem. Maxime Bernier, he observes, didnt win, but ended with a much higher profile than he startedwith.

Will there be a candidate like that who is discounted, but has a message that really resonates with people? Thats why we have a leadership race. We test peopleout.

Mr. McDonald says the new leader will start fresh, with an opening to get a new look after such past difficulties as the last throne speech, presided over by Ms. Clark, that reversed campaign policies and made promises the Liberals didnt runon.

A new leader has a chance for first impressions and to get off on the right foot and engage people, hesaid.

In the meantime, there is the challenge of opposition. Only three of 43 elected Liberals, including Mr. de Jong, have any experience on that side of the legislature. Ironically, there was a fourth Ms. Clark, nowdeparted.

I spent seven years in opposition, but I had to learn it and so many of my colleagues will have to do that, and a couple of us who were there previously will have to relearn it, said Mr. de Jong. Is it like riding a bike? Ill tell you in a month orso.

The curriculum includes critiquing the policies and decisions made by the new government. That will be one of many adjustments, says Mr. de Jong. We are a group that has spent 16 years making the decisions. There is a critical role of critiquing as opposed tocreating.

Mr. Sultan is bemused by the challenge ahead. For many who have been used to the large offices with eight or nine people following them around writing speeches for them, and telling them what papers to sign, its a wrenching change and a difficult one psychologically, hesaid.

There has been some speculation that veteran Liberals wont survive the transition to opposition, but instead quit politicsaltogether.

Mr. de Jong says he is sticking around. Former jobs minister Shirley Bond, who had been in cabinet since she was elected 16 years ago, says she too isstaying.

Mr. Johal said his 23 years of journalism experience has prepared him foropposition.

Earlier this week, interim BC Liberal Leader Rich Coleman, a former deputy premier, released a list of critics roles for the team. Mr. de Jong will be house leader. Ms. Bond will share finance duties with another MLA. Mr. Johal will share critics responsibilities on jobs with another MLA. Mr. Bernier will share critics duties on health with anotherMLA.

Brad Bennett, the grandson of former premier W.A.C. Bennett and son of former premier Bill Bennett, says the time out the Liberals are now facing will allow the party to figure out where to go from here. Throughout the elections in 2013 and 2017, Mr. Bennett travelled at Ms. Clarks side, offering political counsel during thecampaign.

He acknowledges parallels between the current situation and that of his late father, Bill, who became leader of Social Credit in 1973 while the NDP was in power. Bill Bennett positioned his party to win the next election in1975.

Asked what the BC Liberals can learn, he said, Seize the opportunity to refresh, to rebuild, to have conversations around the entire province, and engage as many people aspossible.

He added, When it works, it really works. Those discussions need to take place. It is an opportunity to really solidify a strong free-enterprisecoalition.

MORE FROM THE GLOBE ANDMAIL:

Follow this link:
'What happened?' - The Globe and Mail