Archive for August, 2017

Libertarian Party Praises North Korea As Less Oppressive Than the US – MRCTV (blog)

The Libertarian Party has issued an apology for portraying North Korea as a shining beacon of freedom compared to the allegedly oppressive United States.

In a now-deleted tweet, the Libertarian Party shared a Business Insider article about how North Korea has been dubbed a weed smokers paradise. In their assessment of the article, the Libertarian Party said the totalitarian dictatorship can be looked to for an example of more freedom than the United States:

While the Libertarian Party accurately read the headline of the article, the article itself notes that North Korea may not be as pot-friendly as the Libertarian Party may like:

In January, the AP's Eric Talmadge provides some of the most conclusive evidence yet that marijuana is illegal in North Korea.

Torkel Stiernlof, a Swedish diplomat living in North Korea, told the AP that marijuana is a controlled substance in the same category as cocaine and heroin. He rejected the idea that government looks the other way when it comes to drug use, as some online stories suggest.

"There should be no doubt that drugs, including marijuana, are illegal here," Stiernlof said. "One can't buy it legally and it would be a criminal offense to smoke it."

In fact, the lack of knowledge surrounding the legal enforcement of marijuana laws in North Korea is an example of why North Korea is an oppressive, repressive regime that should not be heralded as an example of freedom. Since Business Insider relies partially on anonymous internet reports to discuss whether North Korea is actually a safe-haven for pot smokers, it shows that the government cracks down on the free exchange of information beyond the borders and the bureaucrats.

It should also be noted that North Korea is famous for the hero-worship cult of personality surrounding its Dear Leaderand that the country routinely punishes any dissent of any kindwith work camps. These are, obviously, not libertarian principles.

After outrage over the tweet, the Libertarian Party reportedly issued an apology nearly a week later. The apology, like the original tweet, appears to have been deleted:

This is far from the Libertarian Partys first time making a social media faux pas. In April, the official Facebook account for the Libertarian Party praised Satanism as an example of libertarian principles.

The Libertarian Party is also famous for allowing a man to strip on stage during a live broadcast of its 2016 National Convention and for musing about whether it should be legal to sell heroin to children during its 2016 presidential candidate debate.

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Libertarian Party Praises North Korea As Less Oppressive Than the US - MRCTV (blog)

Libertarian candidates jump into races to unseat King, Poliquin – Bangor Daily News

The list of candidates for Congress on Maines 2018 ballot continues to grow, including some from a new political party in Maine: The Libertarian Party.

Chris Lyons of Brunswick has announced he has launched a campaign to oust fellow Brunswickian Angus King, an independent, from the U.S. Senate. Farther north, Brian Kresge of Winterport has launched his own bid as a Libertarian against 2nd Congressional District Rep. Bruce Poliquin, a Republican.

Both are leaving the starting gates with similar messages: that Republicans and Democrats in Washington and at the state level have failed to lead and govern. And both are starting a considerably steep uphill slog as fourth-party candidates taking on established incumbents.

Call the prospect of a Libertarian candidate being elected a long shot, but thats also what was said about the party gaining official status in Maine in 2015 and 2016 as supporters sought to register the 5,000 voters they needed take the first step.

The Secretary of States office rejected some of the signatures in January 2016, spurring the Libertarian Party of Maine Inc. to sue. That lawsuit went on for months, resulting in a federal judge first ruling against the partys bid to be a party and then reversing his decision on appeal a month later. That allowed the libertarians to collect the additional registrants they needed and propelled their contention that Maines process for creating a new political party is unconstitutionally rigid.

Being an official political party in Maine affords candidates from that party a much easier path to the ballot, setting up a simple registration system in place of a more formidable petition-based system. The partys efforts are not over. It has to sent at least 10,000 registered Libertarians to the polls in November 2018, according to new legislation enacted this year.

Lyons, who is a contractor by trade, ran a write-in campaign against U.S. Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, in 2014. He has yet to file for his 2018 candidacy against King with the Federal Election Commission but has already launched a series of campaign events. He said he is in the race to win it and that converting independents or voters enrolled in major parties is easy.

One thing Ive learned in the past couple of years is that it isnt so much that people become a Libertarian, he said during an interview on Wednesday. They simply realize they are one. Ive heard this time and time again.

Kresge, a senior software developer for RKL eSolutions LLD of Pennsylvania and Army veteran, said his priority as a candidate and congressman is to advocate for smaller, more effective government, which is at the core of the Libertarian ideology. Kresge also has not filed yet with the Federal Election Commission.

The Libertarian Party is here and is serious about representing your interests, Kresge said in a written statement on Wednesday.

The candidate lineups against King and Poliquin are still developing. So far, only Republican state Sen. Eric Brakey has jumped into the race against King.

This item was originally published in Daily Brief, a free political newsletter distributed Monday through Friday by the Bangor Daily News to inform dialogue about Maine politics and government. To read more of todays Daily Brief, click here. To have the Daily Brief delivered daily to your inbox, click here.

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Libertarian candidates jump into races to unseat King, Poliquin - Bangor Daily News

The Normal Rules Of Politics Still Apply To Trump And To Republicans In Congress – FiveThirtyEight

Aug. 14, 2017 at 11:10 AM

President Trump at the White House on Monday.

One of the big questions heading into the 2018 midterm elections maybe the biggest is how President Trumps unpopularity will affect Republican fortunes. Normally, a president with historically low approval ratings would be a disaster for his party in Senate and House races in a midterm year.

But should we really be presuming that what normally happens will happen again? For one, Trump won the White House despite having record low favorable ratings. And its possible, as CNBCs John Harwood pointed out, that partisan allegiances may be so baked in nowadays that Democrats wont be able to attract Republican voters, however much theyve soured on Trump. Maybe partisan polarization has grown too strong.

Some commentators have taken this argument to extremes. Fox News host Eric Bolling last month effectively argued that Trump is immune from the normal rules of politics. Just look at those crowds, he said, referring to a recent Trump rally in Ohio. Watch the people, not the polls.

The available evidence, however, suggests many of the old rules do still apply. Caution, like what Harwood and political analyst Scott Rasmussen have advised, is more than warranted, especially given Trumps history of surprising analysts and pundits. Partisan polarization has increased, and there is plenty of time for Trumps approval rating to improve. But caution is one thing; ignoring history and evidence, as pundits like Bolling want us to do, is another. And the idea that the normal rules of politics dont apply to Trump strikes me as the latter at least according to the data before us. Early signs suggest that Trumps low approval rating is having exactly the negative effect on down-ballot Republicans that history would predict.

Midterm elections are often thought of as referendums on the sitting president. When theres been an unpopular Democrat in the White House, voters have swung toward Republicans in congressional races. With a struggling Republican president, voters swing Democratic. You can see this by looking at the effect a presidents approval rating has on the national House vote. Specifically, we can look at how much the national House margin would be expected to shift from the previous presidential election based upon the presidents approval rating right before the midterm election.

In 2004, for example, Republicans won the national House vote by 3 percentage points. But two years later, in 2006, with President George W. Bushs approval rating at 38 percent, Republicans lost the House vote by 8 points a 11-point swing from 2004.

Its far from perfect, but in midterm elections since 1946, theres a clear relationship between the presidents approval rating and the swing in the House vote.

Trumps current approval rating is 38 percent. Historically, we would expect a president that unpopular to cause his party to lose around 11 points off its previous House margin. Republicans won the national House vote by 1 percentage point in 2016, so this suggests they would lose it by 10 points if the midterm elections were held today.

Obviously, the 2018 midterm isnt being held today. Trumps approval could rise or fall over the next year. But we do have some measures of the current political environment we can use to see if the normal relationship between a presidents popularity and voter preferences is holding.

First up: the generic congressional ballot, a common poll question that asks respondents whether they will vote for the Democrat or Republican in their congressional district. Democrats right now hold a 46 percent to 37 percent lead, according to the FiveThirtyEight aggregate. Thats a bigger lead than Democrats had at any point in 2016 cycle, and its in line with the margin necessary for Democrats to take back the House.

That 9-point Democratic edge is also right in line with what youd expect given an incumbent president with an approval rating in the high 30s. So according to the generic congressional ballot, the normal rules of politics are still hanging on in the Trump era voters dissatisfaction with Trump is affecting their preferences for the House in the way youd expect based on past elections.

OK, I can already feel the FAKE POLLS! tweets coming. But its not just in polling where we see the negative effect of Trumps unpopularity on Republicans. You can also see it in the special elections held so far this year actual voters actually voting.

There have been 30 special state legislature and U.S. congressional elections since Trump was sworn-in as president. Democrats, as a group, have been outperforming the partisan lean in these districts tending to come close in ruby red districts, winning swing districts and romping in light blue districts. More specifically, Democratic candidates have done about 16 percentage points better, on average, than youd expect in a national environment in which no party held the advantage. (Imagine a world in which the Democratic and Republican presidential candidates tie 50-50 in the popular vote). This overperformance holds as well for the smaller subset of congressional elections.

2017 state legislative and congressional special election results vs. districts partisan lean based on recent presidential results

*Democratic and Republican vote shares are for all candidates of each respective party. The partisan lean compares the districts vote in the last two presidential elections to the nations, with the 2016 election weighted 75 percent and the 2012 election weighted 25 percent.

Source: Secretaries of state, Daily Kos Elections

That 16-point difference is about what youd expect given a president with an average approval rating in the low 40s Trumps average over the course of his presidency so far. Below, you can see the presidents average approval rating from his inauguration to the next midterm election since 1994 and compare it to how much the presidents party over- or underperformed the partisan lean in the average special congressional election during that time.

The dataset is small and the relationship isnt perfect, but it clearly exists. A president whose approval rating averages 41 percent from his inauguration to the midterm corresponds to his party underperforming the weighted lean in the average district by 11 points. Republicans are actually doing slightly worse than that right now, though well within the range expected.

So the generic ballot and the special elections held so far both suggest Trumps low approval ratings are having a normal effect on down-ballot races. The question going forward is whether Trump can improve his approval ratings or whether congressional Republicans can distance themselves from the Trump brand. If either occurs, then Republicans stand a good chance of holding onto their majority in the House. If neither happens and Republicans lose the House, Trump will get a big portion of the blame.

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The Normal Rules Of Politics Still Apply To Trump And To Republicans In Congress - FiveThirtyEight

‘We should call evil by its name’: Republicans are standing up to Trump more directly than ever on Charlottesville – Washington Post

After President Trump condemned "many sides" for the violence in Charlottesville on Aug. 12, Republican and Democratic politicians criticized him for not calling out white supremacy while the attorney general and other administration officials defended his statement. (Bastien Inzaurralde,Jenny Starrs/The Washington Post)

When President Trump issued his travel ban a few days into his presidency,at least eight Senate Republicans opposed it. When he fired his FBI director in May, more than a dozen Senate Republicans openly questioned it. When Trump prodded senators to vote for an Obamacare repeal bill, three of them didn't. When Trump urged Republicans to try again or risk being labeled failures, they ignored him. When Trump started attacking Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) last week, a handful of them went out of their way to publicly back McConnell.

And with Charlottesvilleon its knees this weekend as protests led by white supremacists turned deadly, Senate Republicans had their most overt conflict with the president yet.

A number of Senate Republicans criticized nothing less than the way Trump chose to be president Saturday. They publicly and directly condemned his words and actions. More specifically, they criticized his lack of words and actions toclearly and forcefully denounce the white supremacyroiling Charlottesville's streets and seizing the nation's attention.

White supremacists and neo-Nazis are, by definition, opposed to American patriotism and the ideals that define us as a people and make our nation special, Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) said in a statement.

There's no nuance in those statements, no need to read between the lines. These Republicans think the president did a bad job being president in the midst of a violent, fraught crisis. Their criticism carries extra heft when you consider that these lawmakers mostly weren't prodded by reporters, microphones thrust in their faces, to say any of this. Congress is on break, so wherever in the world these lawmakers were, they made the proactivedecision Saturday to go on Twitter or call up their staff towrite a statement andcriticize the president.

This moment has echoes of the release of the crude Access Hollywood tape in the last month of the 2016 presidential campaign. These senators would probably rather not get into it with the leader of their party, but they feel as if he has done something so egregious that they have no choice but to speak out.

Making their criticism of Trump even more notable: Just a few days ago came atangible warning of the consequences that criticizing Trump can bring. After Sen. Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.) wrote a book declaring that his party is in denial about Trump, a pro-Trump donor wrote one of the senator'sprimary challengers a $300,000 check.

Not everyone who spoke out Saturday has as much on the line as Flake. Most aren't even up for reelection in 2018. (Though Gardner is the chairman of Senate Republicans' reelectioncommittee.)

And liberals shouldn't get their hopes up that this means Republicans are suddenly on the impeachment path. But the past few months, and especially this weekend, make clear that Republicans in Congress are increasingly comfortableconfronting their president in more direct ways.

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'We should call evil by its name': Republicans are standing up to Trump more directly than ever on Charlottesville - Washington Post

California Republicans face backlash for backing climate change program – Los Angeles Times

After weeks of escalating criticism, Assembly Republican Leader Chad Mayes still doesnt have any regrets over bucking his party to support Californias cap-and-trade program on climate change.

Theres just one thing Mayes would have done differently: He wishes he had attended the ceremony on San Franciscos Treasure Island where Gov. Jerry Brown signed the legislation.

The perception was, He didnt go because he was getting heat. Thats not how I operate, Mayes said, explaining his absence as a scheduling conflict. When you do the right thing, its a good idea to stand by that.

Whether he did the right thing is a question that has engulfed Californias struggling Republican Party.

For Mayes and his allies, voting for the global warming legislation was a bid to show voters that Republicans are serious about tackling an issue important to Californians. The final law prevented more stringent regulations by extending the cap-and-trade program, which requires companies to buy permits to emit greenhouse gases.

But for conservative critics, the entire episode was a betrayal of party principles and a tactical blunder. In their eyes, Mayes did nothing more than help liberals increase costs for California businesses and then take a victory lap. They accuse him of providing political cover to Democrats in the state Capitol while ignoring the wishes of his caucus, the majority of which opposed the legislation.

Perhaps worst of all, they said, a grinning Mayes posed for chummy photos with Brown and top Democratic lawmakers after the vote. Shawn Steel, one of Californias two representatives on the Republican National Committee, called it repugnant.

What Chad has done is given us a big fat skunk on our plate, and hes really hurt the party, Steel said.

In a photo one Republican called "repugnant," Mayes is flanked by Gov. Jerry Brown, Senate leader Kevin Len and Assembly Speaker Anthony Rendon after the cap-and-trade vote. On the left is Republican Assemblyman Rocky Chavez, who also voted for the legislation.

In a photo one Republican called "repugnant," Mayes is flanked by Gov. Jerry Brown, Senate leader Kevin Len and Assembly Speaker Anthony Rendon after the cap-and-trade vote. On the left is Republican Assemblyman Rocky Chavez, who also voted for the legislation.

The dispute has led to the rare spectacle of top state Republican officials openly campaigning to oust a member of their party from a leadership position. County chairs, local committees and powerful donor groups have called on him to step down including the GOP leaders of his home county of San Bernardino and the state partys board of directors is expected to vote on the issue Friday.

At a weekend tea party gathering in Fresno, the partys most conservative activists called for Mayes to be challenged by another Republican in the 2018 election.

Tim Donnelly, a conservative former assemblyman who unsuccessfully ran for governor in 2014, called on tea party members to take Mayes down.

I think every single Republican in the state of California should make it their business to make phone calls for whomever is going to primary Chad Mayes if he doesnt resign his seat, Donnelly said Friday night.

Mayes can be removed from his leadership post, which he has held for two years, only by a vote of his 25-member caucus. That could happen when lawmakers return from their summer recess on Aug. 21. He faces an internal challenge from Assemblyman Jay Obernolte (R-Big Bear) and maybe others.

Jim Brulte, the partys state chairman who held the same leadership post when he served in the Assembly and Senate, gave Mayes some advice: Once these challenges gain steam, theyre hard to stop. Mayes confirmed the conversation; Brulte declined to comment.

Obernolte and Mayes met Friday to talk about caucus leadership, according to sources with knowledge of the conversation, and Mayes left the meeting planning to remain in his position.

The acrimony over cap and trade has also complicated routine negotiations over extending a routine fundraising agreement between the state party and legislative Republicans, threatening an important tool for filling campaign coffers for next years races.

Rich Pedroncelli / Associated Press

Gov. Jerry Brown, left, chats with Republican Assemblymen Heath Flora of Ripon, Jordan Cunningham of Templeton and Rocky Chavez of Oceanside on July 17. They were among eight Republicans who voted with Democrats to extend the cap-and-trade program.

Gov. Jerry Brown, left, chats with Republican Assemblymen Heath Flora of Ripon, Jordan Cunningham of Templeton and Rocky Chavez of Oceanside on July 17. They were among eight Republicans who voted with Democrats to extend the cap-and-trade program. (Rich Pedroncelli / Associated Press)

Although Mayes has been the focus of criticism, some of the seven other Republicans who voted for the legislation have been under fire as well. Right-wing activists entered the district office of Assemblyman Marc Steinorth (R-Rancho Cucamonga) and didnt leave until the California Highway Patrol arrived. Assemblyman Devon Mathis (R-Visalia), who drew attention for his emotional speech before the vote explaining his support for cap and trade, faced angry comments from constituents during a town hall meeting last month.

The internal disputes could cast last months vote to extend cap and trade in a much different light. The bipartisan deal had been hailed by supporters as opening a new chapter in Californias environmental leadership, one that could enjoy broader support than in the past. Former Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, the rare Republican who has championed the fight against global warming, said his party had moved forward in a big step.

But the harsh criticisms could force lawmakers back into their partisan foxholes when it comes to climate change.

Chris Megerian and Joe Fox

Here's how California's complex cap-and-trade program operates and how the state's policies are changing under new legislation.

Here's how California's complex cap-and-trade program operates and how the state's policies are changing under new legislation. (Chris Megerian and Joe Fox)

Its a familiar cycle for Californias beleaguered Republicans. Trapped in a shrinking legislative and electoral minority, their only shots at relevance have come through working with Democrats. That often leads to recriminations when Republicans cross party lines to support proposals that dont fit conservative orthodoxy.

There is historically a tension between being relevant as the minority party, and achieving success on the margins as opposed to being 100% doctrinaire, said Rob Stutzman, a former Schwarzenegger advisor.

The bitterness in the Capitol deepened last week when Assemblywoman Melissa Melendez (R-Lake Elsinore), who stepped down as Mayes deputy caucus leader last month to protest his handling of cap and trade, was booted out of her third-floor office. With one days notice, she was moved into a cramped fifth-floor space known as the doghouse, a common landing ground for lawmakers who run afoul of their leaders.

Mayes denied the move had anything to do with disagreements over cap and trade, but it sparked another outcry. Prominent conservative blogger Jon Fleischman said he deserves to lose his legislative seat in addition to his leadership post.

Melanie Mason

A rundown of the political ripple effects of the vote to extend California's landmark climate program, cap-and-trade

A rundown of the political ripple effects of the vote to extend California's landmark climate program, cap-and-trade (Melanie Mason)

Despite the internal furor, the public blowback against Republicans who voted for cap and trade could be limited. Some of the deep-pocketed organizations that usually fund opposition to environmental policies, such as the Western States Petroleum Assn., supported this years legislation.

Mathis was flanked on stage at his recent town hall by business leaders who described his vote as courageous and called the legislation a hell of a deal. Dorothy Rothrock, who supports the legislation as president of the California Manufacturers and Technology Assn., described their presence as a show of force.

The response from the crowd, however, was mixed. One man accused Mathis of having stamped a D at the end of your name. A woman called the assemblyman mindless, spineless Mathis.

But its unclear how deep anger about the cap-and-trade vote runs with voters in the lawmakers districts. Rothrock noted that the town hall was sparsely attended.

There were many more seats than there were people, she said. I was expecting a line out the door.

More than half of Californians said they hadnt heard anything about the 5-year-old cap-and-trade program, according to a recent poll from the nonpartisan Public Policy Institute of California. But once the program was described to those polled, 56% said they were in favor, including 54% of voters who arent registered with a political party and 32% of Republicans.

Nearly three-quarters of Californians support last years law requiring the state to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to 40% below 1990 levels by 2030, according to the same poll.

Given the strong support for the states goals, some Republicans said its better for them to find a way to have a voice on the issue rather than simply opposing every Democratic proposal.

We have to be open-minded to these issues, said Assemblyman Heath Flora (R-Ripon), who also voted for the cap-and-trade legislation. We cant just say, Its a hoax, and move on.

Follow live coverage from the Capitol on Essential Politics

Some Republicans who voted for the legislation have highlighted the concessions they extracted from Democrats in return for their votes. For example, the final deal includes a proposed constitutional amendment that will be on next years ballot. If voters pass it, Republicans would gain greater influence over how the state spends billions of dollars in cap-and-trade revenue.

Getting involved on global warming could pay political dividends, Mayes said, making his members more appealing to a broader swath of voters.

The Republican Party has to change in California, or were going to continue down the spiral were currently in, he said.

His staff has a cartoon in their Capitol office illustrating a corporate boardroom with charts showing plummeting profits and sales. One person in the cartoon pipes up, What if we dont change at all and something magical just happens?

It remains to be seen whether Mayes will follow in the footsteps of previous top Republicans by facing political consequences for controversial votes. The most notable example in recent years was when Dave Cogdill, the late Republican state Senate leader, joined with Democrats and Schwarzenegger to support temporary taxes during Californias financial crisis in 2009.

His caucus called a late-night meeting where he was stripped of his leadership position.

Mayes has hung onto his post so far, heading off a coup attempt shortly after the cap-and-trade vote. But he knows another challenge is possible.

I serve at the pleasure of our caucus, he said. As I know of today, the majority of people in my caucus want me to continue to be the leader. That could change in minutes.

chris.megerian@latimes.com

Twitter: @chrismegerian

seema.mehta@latimes.com

Twitter: @LATSeema

Times staff writer Phil Willon contributed to this report from Fresno.

ALSO

California Legislature extends state's cap-and-trade program in rare bipartisan effort to address climate change

Arnold Schwarzenegger talks bipartisanship and climate change

Updates on California politics

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California Republicans face backlash for backing climate change program - Los Angeles Times