Archive for August, 2017

In Afghanistan, a Destructive ‘Game of Thrones’ – New York Times

This week, the largest city in the north, Mazar-i-Sharif, was in turmoil after Asif Mohmand, a provincial councilman, posted on Facebook the week before to scold a supporter of the famously vain governor of Balkh Province, Atta Muhammad Noor, whose picture has been pasted all over the northern capital on giant posters. There is not even an election going on.

Twenty times I told you not to put up another poster of that pimp and miscreant Atta, Mr. Mohmand told the supporter in a video online. This time when I catch you, Ill kill you, you shameless fool, Ill pump 30 bullets into your forehead, and then help myself to you. (It was not clear what he meant by the last phrase.)

Mr. Mohmand then tauntingly posted a selfie on his way to Mazar from Kabul on Monday afternoon, just in case his enemies did not know where to find him.

Governor Atta, a notorious warlord himself and hardly one to shy away from a fight, sent his gunmen and a contingent of police officers to meet the provincial counselors plane when it landed, only to encounter Mr. Mohmands own armed supporters there to defend him from arrest. The ensuing firefight raged through the terminal and its parking lots, killing two, wounding 17 and temporarily shutting down Mazar-i-Sharif International Airport.

These violent disputes in Balkh and Takhar Provinces are the most recent evidence of the infighting that is diverting resources from the fight against the insurgency and undermining public support. Similar outbreaks among government supporters have taken place in other parts of the country, including the capital, Kabul, where the first vice president, Gen. Abdul Rashid Dostum, was forced into exile this year after the authorities charged him with the kidnapping, torture and rape of a political opponent.

The infighting could be traced to ethnic tensions, grudges dating back to the civil war in the 1980s and 90s and the governments shaky American-brokered coalition of bitter political rivals that is long past its expiration date. Parliament should have been disbanded two years ago and the executive branch is split between two antagonistic leaders President Ashraf Ghani and Chief Executive Abdullah Abdullah.

The result is the central government does not really control large swaths of its own territory, even where the Taliban is not a factor. Instead, it cedes authority to warlords, some in government and some just aligned with it, who are too powerful to be subdued and often too angry at one another to focus on their common enemy, the Taliban.

Such infighting among the warlords is precisely what helped catapult the Taliban to power in 1996. And many of those warlords are still on the scene, on the government side.

Most of these political parties have illegal armed men, and its a threat to the government, said a retired general and military analyst, Abdul Wahid Taqat. They could force the government to collapse and also open a path for the Taliban to return to power.

In remote Takhar Province, in Cha Aab on the border with Tajikistan, the problems started after the Afghan government formally made peace this year with the Hizb-e-Islami party of Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, an Islamic fundamentalist group that had been conducting a low-level insurgency against the government. Like President Ghani and his supporters, Hizb-e is dominated by the Pashtun ethnic group.

The other faction in the Afghan government, led by Mr. Abdullah, is aligned most closely with the Jamiat-i-Islami party, another fundamentalist grouping identified with Tajiks and other northerners.

Cha Aabs mullah, Muallawi Mahfuzullah, considered a Jamiat man, began preaching against smuggling and violence by Commander Qanet, who as a Hizb-e commander is now on the governments side. The commanders men ordered Mullah Mahfuzullah to stop, and after he refused, sacked his home and killed another mullah from his mosque, the police said.

At prayers last Friday, Mullah Mahfuzullah spoke under the protection of 30 officers drawn from the Afghan police and the National Directorate of Security. But Commander Qanets militia forced their way in and opened fire on the worshipers provincial police officials said.

Even the police stood by and watched like victims and did not even try to stop the firing, said Qurban Mohammad, 45, a laborer who was present. They were like wild beasts.

Commander Qanet, reached by telephone, was clearly unhappy to take the call. He complained that Mullah Mahfuzullah had declared him an infidel, but denied attacking him. My fault is this, that I voted for Ashraf Ghani in the election, he said. All the allegations against me are false. Then he abruptly hung up.

Some of the same players were involved in the fighting at the Mazar-i-Sharif airport. Governor Atta, a longtime stalwart of the Jamiat party, has formed an alliance with General Dostum, plotting to return from exile in Turkey. General Dostum is the leader of the Junbish Party, which represents the countrys powerful Uzbek minority.

Historically, Junbish and Jamiat, like General Dostum and Governor Atta, are bitter opponents who have killed thousands of each others followers. Now, however, they are in an enemy-of-my-enemy alliance. Both oppose to the predominantly Pashtun faction around President Ghani.

Mr. Ghani has long tried to oust Governor Atta from office, and also pushed the rape prosecution of General Dostum. Mr. Ghani has publicly called General Dostum a known killer, even though they were running mates in the 2014 elections.

Then there is Mr. Mohmand, the provocative provincial councilman. He enjoyed the support of the Hizb-e-Islami faction at the Mazar-i-Sharif airport, who apparently provided the muscle that protected him for a while. The national police refused to arrest him, because they said there were no valid criminal charges. But Governor Attas men, including the border police, captured him and, under pressure, turned him over to the Afghan intelligence agency, which in Mazar is run by an Atta follower. While in custody, he later claimed, Governor Attas son bit off his ear.

Some saw Mr. Mohmands visit as a conspiracy by Mr. Ghanis supporters to so weaken Governor Atta that they could succeed in removing him a move that has a new urgency, now that the governor has aligned himself with General Dostum.

So far, the ploy, if indeed there was such a ploy, seems to have failed. But Mr. Mohmand was released Thursday and returned to Kabul, ready for another episode.

Jawad Sukhanyar and Fahim Abed contributed reporting from Kabul, and Najim Rahim from Kunduz, Afghanistan.

A version of this article appears in print on August 19, 2017, on Page A5 of the New York edition with the headline: Infighting Among Afghan Warlords Resembles a Destructive Game of Thrones.

Excerpt from:
In Afghanistan, a Destructive 'Game of Thrones' - New York Times

Sources: Pence, McMaster team up to push more troops in Afghanistan – Politico

National security adviser H.R. McMaster (left) and Vice President Mike Pence (right) seek to persuade President Donald Trump to accept commanders' proposals to beef up the 8,400 American troops in the country. | Evan Vucci/AP

Top administration officials in favor of sending more troops to Afghanistan teamed up ahead of a high-level meeting on Friday to persuade President Donald Trump to step up American military involvement in the 16-year-old war, two sources told POLITICO.

Vice President Mike Pence and national security adviser H.R. McMaster rehearsed their pitch heading into the Camp David strategy session in an effort to persuade Trump to accept commanders' proposals to beef up the 8,400 American troops in the country, the sources said.

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But as of Friday evening, the president had not announced a decision on his plans for Afghanistan, where the Taliban have grown in strength and Al Qaeda and the Islamic State terrorist groups have a foothold. And no announcement appeared imminent.

The two sources an administration official and a senior White House aide also confirmed that Erik Prince, founder of the former Blackwater private security firm, had been scheduled to attend the session but that he was blocked at the last minute. The administration official said McMaster was the one who blocked Prince.

Prince has been urging the administration publicly and privately to outsource much of the war effort which primarily involves training and advising Afghan security forces. Prince had the backing of Steve Bannon, who was ousted Friday from his role as the chief White House strategist.

Also among the options being considered were staying the current course and withdrawing U.S. troops.

Pence's office denied that he had done any rehearsals with McMaster on a pitch to Trump, saying the most recent time the two men spoke was before the vice president's trip to Latin America this past week, which he cut short to return for the Camp David session.

"The vice president views his role on this as an honest broker," a top aide to Pence said Friday. "The vice president has not weighed in on any side other than to make sure that the options presented to the president are fully fleshed out and objective."

Trump's indecision on the war this summer has frustrated some of his advisers and commanders in the field eager to bulk up their support for their Afghan counterparts, who have been engaged in a pitched battle with militants in large areas of the country. The president has been hesitant to authorize a troop surge.

McMaster enlisted the vice president's help about six weeks ago, according to a third official, asking him to help build consensus within the administration and to work with him to make the case to the president.

Pence landed back in the United States very early Friday morning, just after midnight, according to a pool report.

The administration official said the rehearsal with McMaster took place partly via Pence's secure phone line on his plane. The vice president also had representatives attend White House meetings on the matter ahead of time, the official said.

The administration official said a memo distributed Friday morning to the other attendees of the session laid out the road toward persuading the president to send more troops.

"The whole point with the rehearsals was to work out and, to be crass, was to get the president to agree to this proposal that hes been against before," the official said of Pence and McMaster's plans. "Theyre not giving any credence to the other ... options. Theyre going ahead with the troop increase option."

It was not immediately clear whether the effort convinced Trump either way. In a statement issued after the Camp David session, White House press secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders said Trump had been briefed extensively on what steps he could take.

"The president is studying and considering his options and will make an announcement to the American people, to our allies and partners, and to the world at the appropriate time," Sanders said.

Wesley Morgan contributed to this report.

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Sources: Pence, McMaster team up to push more troops in Afghanistan - Politico

Graham to Trump: Afghanistan pullout could cause another 9/11 – Politico

I hope President Trump, unlike his predecessor, will not put our military in a bad spot in Afghanistan," Sen. Lindsey Graham said. | Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

Sen. Lindsey Graham warned President Donald Trump on Friday that pulling troops out of Afghanistan could lay the groundwork for another 9/11.

Trump is traveling to Camp David on Friday with his chief national security aides to discuss the path forward for the 16-year-old U.S. war there.

Story Continued Below

The South Carolina Republican urged Trump in a statement to listen to his generals an apparent request for the president to prioritize the views of military commanders over those of his just-dismissed chief strategist Steve Bannon, who reportedly wants to replace U.S. troops in Afghanistan with private contractors.

If we were to pull all our troops from Afghanistan it would be a disaster for our national security interests and set the stage for another 9/11 on American soil, Graham said. I hope President Trump, unlike his predecessor, will not put our military in a bad spot in Afghanistan. He should give them the tools and support they need to confront the rising terror threats in Afghanistan.

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On Thursday, Defense Secretary James Mattis told reporters the administration was very close to a decision on the next steps for the U.S. in Afghanistan.

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Graham to Trump: Afghanistan pullout could cause another 9/11 - Politico

Former deputy CIA director says Trump process is ‘very disconcerting’ on Iran nuke deal – CNN

Watch Fareed Zakaria GPS on Sundays at 10 a.m. and 1 p.m. ET.

Amid warning shots fired by US ships against Iranian ones, as well as very close calls when Iranian drones have buzzed the US military, President Trump will be called upon to certify that Iran is in compliance with the nuclear deal.

His administration has declared Iran in compliance, as required by law, twice during his tenure so far. But Trump has said he expects the US to declare Iran non-compliant when the next review is due in September.

David Cohen, former deputy director of the CIA, said it was "very disconcerting" that it appears Trump may have made a conclusion about Iran before finding the intelligence to back it up.

"It stands the intelligence process on its head," he told CNN's Fareed Zakaria. "Our intelligence analysts, who have access to all of our clandestine collection, access to what our allies around the world are collecting and access to IAEA reports and other open source information are in the best position to make that assessment of whether Iran is complying with the nuclear deal."

"If our intelligence is degraded because it is politicized in the way that it looks like the president wants to do here, that undermines the utility of that intelligence all across the board," said Cohen. "If it's politicized, that credibility and reliability is undermined."

Earlier this week, presumably responding to these news reports, Iran's President Hassan Rouhani said his nation's nuclear program could be re-started within hours if new US sanctions are imposed.

Cohen said the international community likely would not unite with sanctions against Iran even if the United States finds Iran not in compliance.

"As a practical matter, you're not going to have the rest of the international community, you're not going to have our allies in Europe, you're certainly not going to have the Russians and the Chinese coming along with us to re-impose real pressure on the Iranians. So you'll have this fissure between the United States and essentially the rest of the world in trying to reinstate pressure on Iran."

"On the other side of the coin, the Iranians, with the US having pulled out of the deal, will feel that they are absolved from adhering to their commitments under the nuclear deal. So maybe they will begin to spin more centrifuges," he said.

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Former deputy CIA director says Trump process is 'very disconcerting' on Iran nuke deal - CNN

How a Hunger Strike in Iran Spells Trouble for Hassan Rouhani – TIME

Iranian defeated presidential candidate Mehdi Karroubi (R) speaks with an unidentified cleric following Friday prayers at Tehran University in the Iranian capital on July 17, 2009. Getty Images

A relatively stable period in Iranian politics came to an end this week when one of the country's main opposition figures announced he would go on hunger strike to protest his detainment under extrajudicial house arrest since 2011, piling pressure on President Hassan Rouhani just as his second term gets going.

Mehdi Karroubi , 79, is one of the leaders of the opposition Green Movement, the popular protest movement that arose in the wake of the 2009 elections. Karroubi ran for the presidency that year and contested the official result when Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was named the victor. He launched his hunger strike on Wednesday, just days after having a cardiac pacemaker implanted to prop up his ailing heart.

Lawmakers were busy debating the proposed cabinet of the recently re-elected President when news started to filter through that one of the few remaining first generation revolutionaries had stopped eating and drinking since the morning, demanding a public trial and an end to the 24 hour presence of intelligence agents inside his house.

The political establishment was caught off guard, as lawmakers, reformist figures and general members of the public lined up to criticise the 7-year decision by the Islamic Republic to hold Karroubi under house arrest, as well as fellow opposition leader Mir-Hossein Mousavi , and his wife Zahra Rahnavard. The three are being held without prospect of trial or due legal process.

The live coverage by state TV of the Parliament session was cut short when members of parliament began discussing Karroubis strike instead of the planned votes of confidence on the new cabinet. Former president Mohammad Khatami was among the reformist voices urging Rouhani, a moderate who owed both of his election wins to the support of reformists, to act immediately. Many reminded the President of his promise, in his first election bid four years ago, to try to have the house arrest lifted.

The reaction on Twitter and other social networking apps was even more outspoken, with many denouncing the house arrest, and a campaign to go on hunger strike in solidarity gaining traction.

However, it was only when news broke that Karroubi had been rushed to hospital at 1 a.m. on Thursday with his condition deteriorating and his son Mohammad asking for people to pray for him, that the state began to react. With armed security forces and supporters amassing at Karroubis home and at the hospital where he was being treated, Rouhani gave in to Karroubis demand for security agents to leave his home immediately. He promised that the government would do its best to have a public trial although that decision is under the jurisdiction of the judiciary, over which the Supreme Leader holds authority.

What made this whole rather short-lived saga remarkable was the level of reaction from politicians to activists and supporters of the detained leaders of the Green Movement, which was long thought to be over and ended. Rouhani, who had been under fire from reformists for not satisfying their requests for cabinet ministers, was suddenly faced with a united and belligerent front from his supporters demanding action. Just as he begins his second term, he is already being torn between the demands of reformists, and the constraints of the state.

It may be too soon to say whether the incident marks the return of a resurgent Green Movement, but it has serious implications for Rouhani's second term. If Karroubi and Mousavi continue to be held without trial, the President's perceived inability or unwillingness to do anything about it will harass him throughout the next and final four years of his presidency.

And if either of these now elderly men should die in the meantime, public anger against Rouhani and the state could boil to levels not seen since the 2009 protests that birthed the Green Movement in the first place.

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How a Hunger Strike in Iran Spells Trouble for Hassan Rouhani - TIME