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Hassan Rouhani, Irans incumbent president and the sheikh of diplomacy who helped engineer the Iran nuclear deal, won a resounding mandate in a hard-fought reelection battle on Friday, sparking jubilation in the streets of Irans major cities.

Within Iran, the elections outcome matters most for the anticipated disasters that it averted: the appearance of popular approbation for his opponent, a serial human rights abuser with aspirations of even higher office; the blatant rigging of the ballot accompanied the specter of unrest and international recriminations. Even from a distance, the reaction was tinged with an unmistakable note of relief that the doomsday scenarios of rigging or regression had been forestalled.

Rouhanis victory (57 percent of the vote to Raisis 38 percent) does not alter the balance of power in the Islamic Republicin the short term, it may reinforce the regimes legitimacyand it will not translate quickly or easily into the jobs or the freedoms that Rouhani promised to pursue with greater vigilance in a second term. Nor is it likely to fend off Washingtons determination to ramp up pressure on Tehrana strategy that began unfolding with the simultaneous start to President Donald Trumps visit to Saudi Arabia.

However, dismissing the ballots of 41 million Iranians as irrelevant or fakeas the Trump administration and some of its supporters were quick to dorepresents a dangerous miscalculation in a region that can ill afford more American delusions. Irans election is not a quick fix to the problems facing Iranians or to those its government foments, but it is an essential step along the road to more responsible governance.

Multi-billion dollar arms sales and gilded conclaves of octogenarian autocrats will not beget the better future that Trumps Riyadh speech rightly challenged the region to build. No strategy to address the instability that plagues the Middle East can succeed without the expansion of political participation, the expectation of government accountability, the enhancement of civil rights, and some measure of genuine competition for power. Having endured revolution, war, and isolation, Iranians appreciate that a better future begins with the ballot box, and a vote that galvanizes spontaneous (and unimpeded) street parties should be one that Washington welcomes.

The Establishment Rears Up

Like his 2013 election, Rouhanis win on Friday culminated a tense, unsettled campaign that highlighted the ideological fissures within Irans political establishment as well as the perennial dissatisfaction of its electorate. What should have been an easy extension of his presidency morphed into a fight for his political life after conservatives marshalled their efforts around Ibrahim Raisi, a hardline cleric who has been touted as a prospective successor to Irans supreme leader.

The race became a referendum on the economy, an issue that has long served as a convenient proxy for the broader ideological divide within the Islamic Republic. It should have been a position of strength for Rouhani, who through a combination of cautious fiscal policy and successful nuclear diplomacy managed to decrease inflation four-fold and reverse several years of sanctions-induced contraction in the economy. However, Raisi made effective use of the deeply inculcated revolutionary commitment to social justice, hammering Rouhani on persistent unemployment and alleged corruption, and promising to triple cash subsidies to poor households.

The race became a referendum on the economy, an issue that has long served as a convenient proxy for the broader ideological divide within the Islamic Republic.

Raisis apparent momentum was always underpinned by the strenuous support of the conservative establishment, and its readiness to deploy any means necessary to facilitate his election was always the wild card in the race. After all, they had rigged a presidential ballot before, and who better to help than the presumptive successor to the supreme leader?

In the campaigns final days, as hardline press agencies touted polls that put the race as too close to call, Rouhani went on the offensive. He warned the security forces against interfering with the vote, scorned past use of violent and extremist groups, and alluded to Raisis role in some of the most vicious episodes of Irans post-revolutionary history, including the mass execution of thousands of political prisoners in 1988.

Reformist Revival?

He did more than simply disparage his rivals; in the last week of the campaign, Rouhani explicitly embraced the mantle of the reform movementa political agenda that he had opposed in its heyday and only sought to subtly coopt during his first term. He slammed the factional bias of the state broadcasters and the economic infringements of the Revolutionary Guard Corps, and promised to defend human rights and seek the end of all sanctions, a nod toward more negotiations with Washington. He posed the election as a choice between a lawyer and a judge, adding that a lawyer defends people while a judge issues sentences.

Rouhani disparaged his opponents for their claims about freedom of speech and criticism, exclaiming:

How strange! Those who cut off tongues and sewed lips. Nothing has been heard from you but prohibition, ban on writing, and ban on media throughout the years. Please dont you speak of freedom, it will be embarrassed. Please dont you speak of criticism. You work for an organization that no one dares to criticize its performance.

All of this could have come from the playbook of his predecessor, reformist icon Mohammad Khatami, whose name he invoked on the campaign trail and in his victory speech despite prohibitions related to Khatamis support for the leaders of the 2009 post-election uprising.

Rouhanis eight million-vote advantage over Raisi is commanding, and it is bolstered by an even stronger showing in the elections of thousands of local officials that was wrapped into Fridays vote. The outcome carried a wave of reformists into city and local councils around the country, including in conservative bastions such as Mashhad, the hometown of both Raisi and the supreme leader. In Tehran, reformists literally took every seat on the city council, which will surely mean that Tehran mayor Mohammad Baqr Qalibaf, who ended his third run for president to throw his support behind Raisi, will now be out of a job. That his likely replacement is the son of the late Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, Irans original pragmatic president, only adds to the sense that this was a wholesale revival of the prospects of reforming Iran.

Tricky Course Ahead

There is a natural temptation to view Rouhani as strengthened by the elections resounding outcome. Unfortunately, thats unlikely. In fact, the fiercely fought campaign exposed the deep polarization within Iranian society, and while Rouhani easily defeated Raisi, each of his electoral victories came with a lower proportion of the popular vote than any prior presidential ballot, hinting that Iranian elections are becoming more competitive. Some substantial proportion of the electorate harbors deep resentment toward not just the leadership but the four percent, as Qalibaf described that segment of Iranians who have prospered as a result of their proximity to power. They are susceptible to populist promises, and view the economic and diplomatic openings with trepidation rather than relief.

Raisis nearly 16 million votes suggest that the conservative base has not expanded much over the course of the past four years, but neither has it diminished. The guardians of orthodoxy within the Islamic Republic can count on a sizeable blocking minority, and, through a quick round of complaints over electoral procedures, Raisi has signaled he does not intend to shrink quietly back to the seminary. More importantly, they have levers beyond the ballot box at their disposal, including the leadership of the security forces, the judiciary, and a willingness to use any means necessary.

Raisi has signaled he does not intend to shrink quietly back to the seminary.

In this respect, Rouhani faces a familiar problem. In veering left, he surely helped secure strong turnout74 percentand probably swayed many of those who grew disappointed with what the nuclear deal has delivered. However, he also committed himself publicly to making progress on issues where he has only the most tenuous authority and where Khatami, aided by a reformist parliament, ultimately failed to generate meaningful change.

For this reason, his second term begins with an even stiffer challenge than his first. Dashed expectations among some proportion of the public after his first administration threatened his reelection; Rouhani will have to maneuver skillfully to avoid an even more dramatic disconnect between public demands and government achievements over the next four years. At his first post-election news conference, Iranian journalists burst into applause when a questioner advised him to continue behaving as he had during the final week of the campaign.

Rouhanis rhetoric also cut dangerously close to the bone for the legitimacy of Irans ruling system, which remains fixed around the absolute authority of the supreme leader. That will surely not be forgotten, particularly at a time when the prospect of succession looms large. Raisis loss will make his speculated elevation deeply problematic, at least if it were to happen before the end of Rouhanis presidency in 2021. Institutions matter more than individuals in the Islamic Republic, and the primacy of the leaders office has to be protected. At 77 years old, the timing is hardly within Khameneis control, but its worth noting that Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, Irans original supreme leader, survived in office until the age of 86.

What About Trump?

Iranians were still celebrating Rouhanis victory when President Trump landed just across the Persian Gulf in his inaugural foreign visit. The confluence exacerbated the jarring sense of disconnect that accompanied Trumps tough talk about Tehran before the leaders of more than 55 Muslim-majority nations. Trump urged that all nations of conscience must work together to isolate Iran, deny it funding for terrorism, and pray for the day when the Iranian people have the just and righteous government they deserve.

Rouhani seemed to leave the door open to Trump, suggesting that the administration is still learning on the job...

Unsurprisingly, Trumps message fell flat among Iranians, generating derisive reactions on social media including from Irans foreign minister. In his news conference, Rouhani dismissed the Riyadh summit as a show and lightly mocked the Saudis for their attachment to hereditary rule and their reliance on American military technology and advising.

More importantly, Rouhani seemed to leave the door open to Trump, suggesting that the administration is still learning on the job and reminding Iraniansand the worldthat negotiations have proven the most effective tool for resolving bilateral differences between Washington and Tehran.

It is a message that the Trump administration would do well to heed, even in the triumphal aftermath of the Riyadh summit. Every U.S. president, both Republican and Democratic, has sought to engage in direct diplomacy with Tehran. Just as Trump was persuaded to jettison his anti-Islamic rhetoric in order headline a Muslim summit with the leaders of 55 Muslim-majority countries, the exigency for dialogue with Iran will surely arise. Given developments in Iraq and Syria, that time may come sooner rather than later.

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What Will Rouhani's Repeat Mean for Iran and Washington? - Lawfare (blog)

Last weeks OPEC meeting was characterized by a certain banality. The news that OPEC and non-OPEC members would agree to another nine months of production cuts elicited a collective shrug from oil markets and brought about a fall in prices. Little that occurred gave rise to alarm, and apart from news that U.S. shale producers were in dialogue with OPEC officials and that Saudi Arabia and Russia were conniving on deeper cuts in the backroom, reporters were somewhat at a loss for what would make for a juicy story.

Amidst the routine nature of the meeting, however, was a somewhat surprising announcement from Iran, OPECs third-largest producer, that it would not be cutting any output but would instead maintain its current level of 3.8 million bpd. Irans oil minister, Bijan Zanganeh, dodgedinitial questions regarding Irans compliance with OPECs agreement, but on May 25 stated categorically that Iran will not reduce its output.

There are indications that the country may be planning to ramp up production in order to fuel higher exports. In an interviewwith Argus Media, Zanganeh did not refute a claim from the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) that Iranian production would increase by 300,000 bpd by March 2018, though he did state Iran would respect the decision by OPEC.

He went on to state that by 2021 Iran would add 700,000 bpd to its overall capacity, with a targeted total capacity of 4.7 million bpd. He was hopeful that condensate production would increase from 600,000 bpd to 1 million bpd by March. The OPEC agreement was a short-term decision, and Iran was looking at the medium to long-term.

A major factor in Irans plans for increased output are contracts with foreign companies. The government of Hassan Rouhani has attempted to revamp Irans strict regulations for doing business with foreign companies. This process was stalled for months amidst resistance from Irans hard-liners, but Rouhanis re-election in May has spurred hopes that the countrys aging oil and gas infrastructure will soon enjoy major injections of foreign capital.

A deal with French oil giant Total is nearing completion, according to Zanganeh, which would see a more rapid development of the South Pars natural gas field, shared between Qatar and Iran. Total is musingan investment of $2.2 billion. Related:Saudis, Russia Will Do Whatever It Takes To Bring Oil To Balance

One Iranian official stated that deals worth $50 billion would be concluded in 2018, while Zanganeh mentioned forthcoming agreements with Lukoil, Maersk, Petronas and Petramina, though details of the deals are hard to come by.

A deal with China National Petroleum Corp (CNPC) will be concluded in July, according to Zanganeh, and will focus on the development of Irans Azadegan deposit.

In Vienna, the Iranian oil minister talked up Irans desire to reconnect with the world. Rouhanis re-election was a sign that Iran was ready and willing to engage with the international community, despite renewed hostility from the United States and considerable suspicions from the Gulf States regarding Irans regional ambitions.

Yet apart from the hype stirred up by Irans oil administration, little concrete information regarding Irans new oil and gas deals has emerged. The much-anticipated flood of investment has yet to materialize. Rouhanis first election, and the deal signed in July 2015 over the countrys nuclear program, was meant to auger an end to Irans isolation. Rouhani was able to win re-election in May despite considerable disappointment over Irans stagnant economy, which he had vowed to reinvigorate in part through deals with foreign companies.

While it is certain that Rouhani will be more amenable to new oil deals than his challenger, hardliner Ebrahim Raisi, whether he is able to translate his electoral win into new investment for Irans oil and gas industry remains to be seen.

Zanganehs comments in Vienna mirror the declarations made by an NIOC official after the July 2015 agreement and contain much of the same sentiment: confidence, optimism that Irans dreams for higher production and exports will be realized, and a certain amount of hype. Thats nothing new for OPECs third-largest oil producer, which has vowed that it will respect the OPEC production deal even as it plans for the future; whether the money needed to realize that future appears is another question entirely.

By Gregory Brew for Oilprice.com

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Should Markets Fear Iran's Plans To Boost Oil Output? - OilPrice.com

Zynab Al Harbiya was killed by a suicide bomber near a Baghdad ice-cream parlour.

The father of a 12-year-old Melbourne girl who died in a car bomb explosion in Baghdad has spoken of his grief upon seeing her body, calling Islamic State attackers monsters who had killed a little girl with a big heart.

Zynab Al Harbiya, a year seven student from Melbournes Sirius College, was killed by a suicide bomber near an ice-cream shop in the Iraqi capital about midnight local time on Tuesday.

Islamic State claimed responsibility for the attack, which killed 17 people including Zynab and injured 32, and another car bomb outside the public pension office in Shawaka, which killed 14 people and injured at least 17. The attacks came just days into the holy month of Ramadan.

Zynab and her family were visiting Baghdad from Australia to see her sick grandfather and she was on her way to break fast with her cousins at the ice-cream parlour when the bomb went off.

Her father, Khalid Al Harbiya, was five hours south in Al Nasiriya and told Fairfax Media he had driven back to Baghdad not knowing whether his family was alive. He saw his daughters body in the morgue of the neurosurgery teaching hospital.

I started banging on my head when I saw. It was so traumatic, he told Fairfax. May God avenge us from Daesh.

He added: Normally your child survives you, not the other way around.

He had last spoken to Zynab the day before when she asked if she could buy a new iPhone.

It was such a brutal death. She was just a little girl, what has she ever done to anyone? She was not in the army or a fighter. They are criminals, they have no mercy, no humanity they are monsters.

He said Zynab had strong convictions and was creative. She also had big ambitions.

She wanted to be a lawyer or a teacher or a doctor, he said. She wanted to help people, I swear. She had a big heart.

Harbiya said his wife had gone into shock at Zynabs death and his two sons, Haydar, 10, and Bilal, seven, were distraught.

They wanted to see their sister but we stopped them because the scene is too horrific, he said. They are crying all the time saying we want our sister back.

Harbiya fled Iraq during Saddam Husseins regime and has lived in Australia for 20 years, working as a labourer. Zynab and her brothers were born in Australia.

On Wednesday the foreign minister, Julie Bishop, described the attack as vicious and extended our deepest sympathies to her family, her loved ones, her fellow students at Broadmeadows.

This tragedy underscores the brutality of this terrorist organisation that shows no respect for religion, nationality, sovereignty, borders, no respect for humanity, Bishop said.

Harbiya said he was heartened by support from Australia, which included limited consular support.

We are Muslims being targeted and these terrorists know no difference. We must stand together to fight against Daesh and terrorism.

Zynabs funeral was held in Baghdad on Wednesday, and students at Sirius College prayed for her.

Sirius Colleges principal, Halid Serdar Takimoglu, said she was a passionate and well-loved student, whose death had deeply distressed the school.

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Zynab Al Harbiya's father says girl killed in Iraq had 'big heart' - The Guardian

MSF is continuing to provide medical care, including for trauma, and mother and child care, in areas throughout northern Iraq.

Mosul

Inside Mosul city

MSF opened a 15-bed, 24/7 free-of-charge maternity hospital in Karama, in east Mosul, on the 19 March. Since then, the MSF team made up of both expat and Iraqi midwives and obstetricians has assisted 200 women to give birth safely.

MSF opened a 24/7 emergency room in Al Taheel hospital on 26 March. The team has also set up a surgical unit (with one operating theatre currently running, but a second will soon be online), and a 32-bed post-operative ward in order to provide medium-term care to those suffering from violent trauma injuries in and around Mosul. People with older injuries in need of surgical care, surgical follow up, and other types of surgical issues are also treated in this facility. Since opening, over 330 patients have been received in the emergency room, and 30 surgical interventions have been carried out.

In north-east Mosul, MSF works in a hospital set up inside a former retirement home. The ER opened in February, and has been running 24/7 since 1 March providing emergency, surgery, and maternity services (including caesarean sections), and an in-patient department (IPD) with 50 beds. Since the opening of the hospital until early May, the MSF team has treated 4,376 patients, over half of whom (2,286) were urgent cases, and 93 caesarean sections were performed since the maternity unit opened. As the level of access to healthcare is improving in East Mosul, the hospital has seen a drop in activities in the past weeks, especially in terms of lifesaving medical care. As a result, MSF is re-evaluating the project strategy.

Outside Mosul city

Hammam al-Alil is the closest internally-displaced persons (IDP) camp to the south of Mosul, and is located around 30km south of the current frontline. The town has received a big influx of IDPs from western Mosul since start of the military offensive, with more people arriving every day and settling in different camps in the area, or are sent elsewhere after they are screened by security forces.

MSF opened a field trauma hospital with emergency room, two operating theatres, an ICU/recovery room, and IPD on 16 February; for more than one month this hospital was the closest surgical facility to West Mosul. The emergency room received 2,689 patients from 19 February to 19 May, with more than half of them women and children, and more than two-thirds were war-wounded. So far the team has performed 245 major surgical procedures and 56 minor procedures.

Since 15 April, MSF has been supporting the local Department of Healths primary healthcare centre (PHCC) in Hamman al-Alil, and had already carried out a total of 12,232 consultations by 19 May for both the local population and the IDPs hosted in the community. In the PHCC we perform dressings for wounded patients, including those still being followed up after being discharged from our trauma centre. In Hammam al-Alil, MSF also runs an ambulatory therapeutic feeding centre for children suffering from malnutrition, with a rapidly increasing cohort made up primarily of small babies aged less than six months

MSF is providing long-term post-operative care with rehabilitation and psychosocial support in Al Hamdaniya hospital, in collaboration with Handicap International. Activities started on 15 March and to date, MSF has admitted 189 patients, nearly half of whom were women and children. The facility now has 40 beds in order to respond to the huge need for post-operative care and is almost constantly full, receiving new patients who need post-operative follow-up as soon as those who complete their follow-up are discharged.

In December, MSF opened a 32-bed hospital in Quayyarah, 60 km south of Mosul, with an ER and an operating theatre to provide surgical and emergency medical care. The facility has now been extended to cater for the growing and diversifying needs. The team has treated 6,000 patients in the ER as of 1 May, around 10% of whom were admitted to the in-patient department which currently has a 50 bed capacity. A total of 1,130 surgical interventions have been performed since December 2016 until 1 May. A four-bed intermediate care unit was opened in mid-April to provide care to patients in critical condition, and seven observational beds and two resuscitation beds are also now available.

In March, MSF set-up a 12-bed intensive therapeutic feeding centre (ITFC) in Quayyarah to provide care to children recently displaced from west Mosul or Shirkat region, as well as those from IDP camps in Hammam al-Alil and Quayyarah. The majority of the patients in the ITFC are less than six months old. The centre regularly works over capacity and during one week in late May had three babies per bed.

Since February, MSF has been running a mental health clinic for patients admitted to the hospital, as well as for patients referred from Quayyarah camps. The team includes a psychiatrist, two psychologists, and two psychosocial counsellors.

Camps for displaced people

Following the offensive launched into West Mosul in mid-February, the total population of the four camps west of Erbil hosting internally displaced people from Mosul sharply increased to 80,000 people by the end of March. Soon after, the displaced people started leaving the camps to move in with relatives, or rent houses in retaken areas of East Mosul, and the overall population decreased to approximately 70,000.

Today, mobile MSF teams are providing primary health care, treatment for chronic diseases (mainly diabetes and hypertension), as well as psychological and psychiatric care in two of these camps, Chamakor and M2. Activities in M2 are currently more focused on care for non- communicable diseases, with MSF planning to handover primary health care activities by the end of May. MSF has already handed over the treatment of non-communicable diseases in Debaga camp, given the number of IDPs leaving and starting to return to their homes or moving in with relatives in East Mosul.

A team of a psychiatrist, psychologists, and counsellors is also providing health care to those suffering from moderate to severe mental health conditions. Activities include psychological and psychiatric consultations, group therapy, psychosocial counselling, and child therapy. MSF teams currently provide mental health care across 14 sites, and are always extremely busy.

Since the beginning of the year, the team has carried out more than 15,000 medical consultations and 9,000 mental health consultations in the IDP camps near Mosul.

Hawija

Hawija District, one of the four districts of Kirkuk governorate, remains the second largest territory controlled by Islamic State (IS) in Iraq, but the timeline leading to the military intervention to retake the area is not yet known. Hawija is surrounded by more than 200 rural villages and the entire district combined had an estimated population of 288,000 in June 2014, but a large proportion has now reportedly fled.

In late 2015, increasing numbers of civilians began fleeing the hardship of life under IS and in June 2016, a militia group cut the last trade road, isolating the district from other IS-held territories and from the rest of Iraq. Since then, living conditions have become dire for the estimated 70,000 people remaining in Hawija district. Due to the siege, food is scarce and prices have skyrocketed. Health facilities have been damaged by airstrikes and local looting, and both health workers and medical supplies (drugs, equipment, and materials) are drastically lacking. It is expected that the military offensive will further disrupt access to basic services and worsen the already critical humanitarian situation.

Of the estimated 88,000 IDPs that have reportedly left Hawija since August 2016, around half are displaced within Kirkuk Governorate, where the vast majority live in Kirkuks six IDP camps. A further 30,000 have fled to neighbouring Salah Al-Din governorate. People reported that the main reason for leaving is the lack of food and drinking water.

Since November 2016, MSF has been operating two mobile clinics at Maktab Khalid checkpoint and at Debes screening site to respond to the immediate needs of those fleeing Hawija. Primary health care, first aid, psychological trauma care, and referrals to Kirkuk hospital ER are being provided. MSF has also renovated the water and sanitation facilities in the two sites and distributes water. In Daquq IDP Camp, MSF runs a non-communicable diseases clinic and mental health activities. MSF also supports the emergency rooms of the two main Kirkuk hospitals and has conducted emergency response workshops including specific training on how to deal with injuries to the abdomen and chest, as well as on advanced trauma responses in preparation for mass casualties which may arrive as a result of any future Hawija offensive.

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Iraq: Crisis Update northern Iraq, June 2017 - ReliefWeb

WASHINGTON, May 30, 2017 Partnered forces in Syria and Iraq are continuing to make progress in defeating the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria, a Pentagon spokesman said today.

Syrian Democratic Forces yesterday cleared more than 130 kilometers of terrain in the Raqqa valley and in the vicinity of Tabqa, Navy Capt. Jeff Davis told reporters.

The SDF is closing in on Raqqa, he said, pointing out that in the northern Raqqa valley, the SDF has cleared to within four kilometers of Raqqa.

Davis noted pro-regime forces are conducting patrols west and north of At Tanf, in the vicinity of the deconfliction zone where the United States is working with partners.

"The coalition dropped leaflets over the weekend demanding that the pro-regime troops withdraw from this deconfliction zone," he said.

Counter-ISIS Strikes

The coalition continued strikes against ISIS targets in Raqqa over the weekend, to include ISIS tactical units, vehicles, a tunnel, a mortar system, a weapons cache, a vehicle-borne improvised explosive device factory and a fighting position, Davis said.

Iraqi forces have surrounded the old city in west Mosul, Davis said, noting today is the 100th day in the campaign to liberate west Mosul.

Iraqi security forces made small gains along the forward line of troops yesterday, bringing to 577 square kilometers the gains since the west Mosul offensive began Feb. 19, he said.

"They continue to slowly advance against heavy resistance in the last few ISIS-held neighborhoods," Davis explained.

In the campaign for west Mosul, coalition forces continue to support and conduct strikes on enemy positions and potential vehicle-borne improvised explosive devices, striking about 85 vehicles in the last two days inside west Mosul to protect partnered forces, Davis pointed out.

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Partnered Forces Continue to Make Progress in Syria, Iraq - Department of Defense