Archive for June, 2017

Dispatch From the Middle East: US Buildup All About Iran – The American Conservative

DAMASCUS As the drive to push ISIS out of its remaining territories in Syria and Iraq rapidly advances, the U.S. and its allied forces have entrenched themselves in the southeastern Syrian border town of al-Tanaf, cutting off a major highway linking Damascus to Baghdad.

Defeating ISIS is Washingtons only stated military objective inside Syria. So what are those American troops doing there, blocking a vital artery connecting two Arab allied states in their own fight against terrorism?

Our presence in al-Tanaf is temporary, says Col. Ryan Dillon, spokesman for the Combined Joint Task Force of Operation Inherent Resolve (CTFO-OIR), the U.S.-led campaign against ISIS, via phone from Baghdad. Our primary reason there is to train partner forces from that area for potential fights against ISIS elsewhereand to maintain security in that border region.

Dillon adds for emphasis: Our fight is not with the (Syrian) regime.

But since May 18, when U.S. airstrikes targeted Syrian forces and their vehicles approaching al-Tanaf, American forces have shot down two Syrian drones and fired on allied Syrian troops several times, each time citing self-defense. In that same period, however, it doesnt appear that the al-Tanaf-based U.S.-backed militants have even once engaged in combat with ISIS.

Bouthaina Shaaban, political and media advisor to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, is left bemused by that rhetoric: When asked what theyre doing in the south of Syria, they say theyre there for their national security, but then they object to the movements of the Syrian army inside Syria?

She has a point. Under international law, any foreign troop presence inside a sovereign state is illegal unless specifically invited by the recognized governing authority in this case, Assads government, the only Syrian authority recognized by the UN Security Council. Uninvited armies try to circumvent the law by claiming that Syria is unable or unwilling to fight ISIS and the threat to international security it poses. But unwilling and unable is only a theory, and not law, and since the Russians entered the Syrian military theater to ostensibly fight ISIS with the Syrians, that argument thins considerably.

Colonel Dillon acknowledges the point but argues that the Syrian army only just showed up recently in the area. If they can show that they are capable of fighting and defeating ISIS, then we dont have to be there and that is less work for us and would be welcome.

Its not clear who made the U.S. arbiters of such a ruling. Syrias fight against ISIS has picked up considerably in recent months, since four de-escalation zones were established during May negotiations in Astana among Russia, Turkey, and Iran. Reconciliation agreements among government forces and some militant groups in those zones and the transfer of other militants to the northern governorate of Idlib has meant that Syrian allied forces have been able to move their attention away from strategic areas in the west and concentrate on the ISIS fight in the east of the country.

An April 2017 report by IHS Markit, the leading UK security and defense information provider, asserts that the Islamic State fought Syrian government forces more than any other opponent over the past 12 months. Between 1 April 2016 and 31 March 2017, says the organization, 43 percent of all Islamic State fighting in Syria was directed against President Assads forces, 17 against the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and the remaining 40 percent involved fighting rival Sunni opposition groups in particular, those who formed part of the Turkey-backed Euphrates Shield coalition.

In other words, during the period when IS territorial losses were most significant, Syrian forces fought ISIS more than twice as often as U.S.-backed ones.

An American Wedge Between Syria and Iraq

So whats with the continued U.S. presence in al-Tanaf, an area where there is no ISIS presence and where the Syrian army and its allies have been making huge progress against their militant Islamist opponents?

The above map commissioned by the author.

If you look at the map commissioned by the author above, there are approximately three main highway crossings from major Syrian centers into Iraq. The northern-most border highway is currently under the control of U.S.-backed Kurdish forces who seek to carve out an independent statelet called Western Kurdistan.

The Homs-to-Baghdad highway in the middle of the map cuts through ISIS-besieged Deir ez-Zor, where up to 120,000 civilians have been protected by some 10,000 Syrian troops since ISIS stormed its environs in 2014. While that border point to Iraq is currently blocked by the terror group, Syrian forces are advancing rapidly from the west, north, and south to wrest the region back from ISIS control.

The Damascus-to-Baghdad highway in the south of the country, which allied Syrian forces have largely recaptured from militants, could have easily been the first unobstructed route between Syria and Iraq. Until, of course, U.S.-led forces entrenched themselves in al-Tanaf and blocked that path.

The Syrians cleared most of the highway this year, but have been inhibited from reaching the border by a unilaterally-declared deconfliction zone established by U.S.-led coalition forces.

It was agreed upon with the Russians that this was a deconfliction zone, says CJTF spokesman Dillon.

Russias Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov begs to differ: I dont know anything about such zones. This must be some territory, which the coalition unilaterally declared and where it probably believes to have a sole right to take action. We cannot recognize such zones.

Since regime-change plans fell flat in Syria, Beltway hawks have been advocating for the partitioning of Syria into at least three zones of influence a buffer zone for Israel and Jordan in the south, a pro-U.S. Kurdish entity along the north and north-east, and control over the Syrian-Iraqi border.

But clashes with Syrian forces along the road to al-Tanaf have now created an unintended consequence for the U.S.s border plans. Syrian allied troops circumvented the al-Tanaf problem a few weeks ago by establishing border contact with Iraqi forces further north, thereby blocking off access for U.S. allies in the south. And Iraqi security forces have now reached al-Waleed border crossing, on Iraqs side of the border from al-Tanaf, which means U.S.-led forces are now pinned between Iraqis and Syrians on the Damascus-Baghdad road.

When Syrians and Iraqis bypassed the al-Tanaf area and headed northward to establish border contact, another important set of facts was created on the ground. U.S. coalition forces are now cut off at least from the south of Syria from fighting ISIS in the northeast. This is a real setback for Washingtons plans to block direct Syrian-Iraqi border flows and score its own dazzling victory against ISIS. As Syrian forces head toward Deir ez-Zor, U.S.-backed forces participation in the battle to liberate that strategic area will now be limited to the Kurd-dominated Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) from the north, while Syrian forces have established safe passage from the north, south, west and potentially from the east, with the aid of allied Iraqi forces.

Why Washington Wants That Border

Re-establishing Syrian control over the highway running from Deir ez-Zor to Albu Kamal and al-Qaim is also a priority for Syrias allies in Iran. Dr. Masoud Asadollahi, a Damascus-based expert in Middle East affairs explains: The road through Albu Kamal is Irans favored option it is a shorter path to Baghdad, safer, and runs through green, habitable areas. The M1 highway (Damascus-Baghdad) is more dangerous for Iran because it runs through Iraqs Anbar province and areas that are mostly desert.

If the U.S. objective in al-Tanaf was to block the southern highway between Syria and Iraq, thereby cutting off Irans land access to the borders of Palestine, they have been badly outmaneuvered. Syrian, Iraqi, and allied troops have now essentially trapped the U.S.-led forces in a fairly useless triangle down south, and created a new triangle (between Palmyra, Deir ez-Zor, and Albu Kamal) for their final battle against ISIS.

The Americans always plan for one outcome and then get another one that is unintended, observes Irans new envoy to Syria, Ambassador Javad Turk Abadi.

He and others in Damascus remain optimistic that the border routes long been denied to regional states will re-open in short order.

Through the era of the Silk Road, the pathway between Syria, Iran, and Iraq was always active until colonialism came to the region, explains Turk Abadi.

In the same way that Western great powers have always sought to keep Russia and China apart, in the Middle East, that same divide-and-rule doctrine has been applied for decades to maintaining a wedge between Syria and Iraq.

In the history of the last half century, it was always prevented for Syria and Iraq to get close, to coordinate. When (former Syrian president) Hafez al-Assad and (former Iraqi president) Ahmed Hassan al-Bakr almost reached a comprehensive agreement, Saddam Hussein made a coup detat and hung all the officers who wanted rapprochement with Syria,msays Shaaban, who has just published a book on Hafez Assads dealings with former U.S. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger.

Saddam then launched an eight-year war against the Islamic Republic of Iran, and the latter lost road access through Iraq for more than two decades. In early 2003, U.S. troops invaded Iraq, deposed Saddam, and occupied the country for the next nine years. During that era, Iranian airplanes were often ordered down for inspections, instigated by U.S. occupation forces interested in thwarting Irans transfer of weapons and supplies to the Lebanese resistance group Hezbollah and other allies.

By the time U.S. troops exited Iraq in late 2011, the Syrian conflict was already under way, fully armed, financed, and supported by several NATO states and their Persian Gulf allies.

When those borders are re-opened, says Asadollahi, this will be the first time Iran will have a land route to Syria and Palestine though others point out that the Iranians have always found ways to transport goods undetected.

Our army is now almost at the border and Iraqis are at their border and we are not going to stop, insists Shaaban.

Syrian and Iraqi forces have not yet checkmated American forces operating in their military theaters. There is still talk of an escalation that may pit the United States against Syrias powerful Russian ally, a dangerous development that could precipitate a regional or global war.

But in Baghdad, the U.S.-led coalition spokesman Colonel Dillon struck a slightly more nuanced tone from the more belligerent threats sounded in Washington:

Were not in Syria to grab land. If the Syrian regime can show they can defeat ISIS, then were fine with that. The Waleed border crossing is a good sign that shows these capabilities. We are open to secure borders both on the Syrian and Iraqi side. Were not there with the intent to block anything, were there to defeat ISIS and train forces for that.

Sharmine Narwani is a commentator and analyst of Mideast geopolitics, based in Beirut.

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Dispatch From the Middle East: US Buildup All About Iran - The American Conservative

Sniper’s shot puts focus on Canada’s Iraq role – Inquirer.net

Nicholas Dugan of California looks at the new McMillan Tac-50 A1-R2 rifle on display at the McMillan Firearms Manufacturing booth at the National Shooting Sports Foundations 34th annual Shooting, Hunting, Outdoor Trade (SHOT) Show at the Sands Expo and Convention Center January 17, 2012, in Las Vegas, Nevada. AFP

OTTAWA, Canada Canadas supposed non-combat role in Iraq is being questioned after a special forces sniper took out an ISIS fighter in Iraq.

But Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on Tuesday would have none of it, saying Canadian troops training Kurdish fighters have orders to also fight in defense of coalition soldiers.

I can tell you that defending our allies in the coalition has been an integral part of our mission, Trudeau told a press conference marking the end of the parliamentary session.

This is completely in keeping with our responsibilities as Canadians, as members of the coalition in northern Iraq and it will continue to be that way, he said.

The military confirmed to AFP that a member of its Joint Task Force 2 unit deployed in Iraq had successfully hit a target from 3,540 meters, or 2.2 miles.

According to a media report, the soldier was positioned on a high-rise rooftop last month and, using a McMillan TAC-50 rifle, killed an ISIS fighter who was attacking Iraqi soldiers.

Since then, opposition parties have used the incident to challenge the governments claim that JTF2s mission is simply to advise and assist Kurdish militia, and accused Trudeau of waging a secret war without parliaments nod.

It seriously calls into question your governments claim that Canadian forces are not involved in direct combat in Iraq, New Democratic Party leader Thomas Mulcair said in a letter to the prime minister.

Trudeaus Liberals came to power in 2015 promising to end Canadian airstrikes against the Islamic State group in Iraq.

At the same time, preferring to support the Iraqis in their fight, over direct military intervention, the government tripled the number of Canadian military trainers on the ground to more than 200.CBB

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Sniper's shot puts focus on Canada's Iraq role - Inquirer.net

ISIS Is Almost Defeated in Iraq, but Thousands of Christians Refuse to Return to Their Homes – Newsweek

Three years ago, as darkness fell over the northern Iraqi town of Qaraqosh, Sabah Petrus Shema helped his extended family pile into a pickup truck and leave town. When they were gone, he grabbed two Kalashnikovs and waited as the sound of mortar fire drew near.

Miles down the road, the Islamic State militant group (ISIS) was advancing. By early the next morning, nearly all of the towns residents were gone, and a stream of panicked soldiers began to pass through, retreating from the front. Thats when Shema knew it was time to flee. It was a painful decision, he says. We were leaving behind our homes, our churches, everything. All we took was our clothes, our IDs and some money.

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Qaraqosh was among dozens of towns in northern Iraq that ISIS overran in 2014. Over the past three years, the Iraqi army has regrouped, with the help of Shiite militias, Kurdish forces and American airpower, driving the militants out of all but a few small pockets, such as central Mosul. But while predominantly Muslim towns have begun to rebuild, in Qaraqosh and other mostly Christian places, few residents have returned. Fearing more war and extremism, many worry they never will. The future in Iraq is full of ambiguity, says Shema, who now lives in a refugee camp in Erbil. After ISIS is gone, there may be another group that is even worse.

An Iraqi Christian family displaced by ISIS from their hometown of Bartella, on the edge of Mosul, prepares to go on an outing from their new home in an IDP camp in Erbil. Tommy Trenchard

Today, most of Qaraqosh looks like ghost town. Weeds and wildflowers have sprouted along the main roads, and theres an eerie silence, save for the occasional passing truck filled with soldiers from the Nineveh Plains Unit, a Christian militia.

The destruction of Qaraqosh was systematic, and everywhere you look, the buildings are charred from flames. ISIS fighters went from home to home, dousing them in chemicals and setting them ablaze. In churches, they smashed religious icons and slashed the faces of paintings of Jesus and Mary. Throughout the town, they left booby traps and improvised explosive devices, some of which remain.

Yousif Yaqoub, the president of the Beth Nahrin National Union, an Assyrian Christian political party, believes the militants wanted to make the town uninhabitable, to send a message to the countrys Christians. Its not just in Qaraqosh, Yaqoub tells Newsweek by phone from Erbil. In the other Christian towns too, they tried to destroy every single house.

Given Qaraqoshs disrepair, its understandable that few residents want to return. Yet other Muslim-majority towns suffered worse destruction and have sprung back to life in the months since ISIS fled. Even in Mosul, where fierce fighting continues, once shuttered stores have reopened, and empty neighborhoods are now bustling with people. On a visit to the Wadi Hajar neighborhood of western Mosul in April, just a month after it was recaptured, shopkeepers were repainting their blackened storefronts even as gunfire and explosions erupted a few blocks away.

Though a few Qaraqosh residents have started trickling back in recent months, the vast majority arent. Before the ISIS invasion, 50,000 people lived here. Now, there are only an estimated 180 families. The Christians are concerned over how readily some of their Muslim neighbors accepted the rise of ISIS. There are still many people who support ISIS, says a Nineveh Plains Unit member, who identified himself only as Major Latif. The militamen periodically conduct raids to break up sleeper cells in the area.

In recent months, ISIS sleeper cells have launched attacks in and around parts of Mosul and Kirkuk, as well as in the capital, Baghdad. We are afraid of all the people who supported ISIS, says Shema. They were brainwashed. Even the children were taught to kill. If security was present, then we could go home. But in Qaraqosh there is no justice, no law to protect us.

Many Iraqi Christians fear the law will never protect them. ISIS, they feel, is just one of many extremist groups that have threatened non-Muslims since the U.S. toppled Saddam Hussein in 2003. Before the American invasion, there were roughly 1.5 million Christians in Iraq. Since then, their numbers have dwindled to 500,000. Most, such as Shema, are now living in displacement camps in Iraqs semiautonomous Kurdish region. The conditions are cramped but adequate, in part because the plight of Iraqs Christians has become a cause for faith-based charities across the world.

Yet for Shema, life in the refugee camp is a form of purgatoryhis home will forever be Qaraqosh, even if he doesnt know when he can live there again. Hes visited oncebrieflysince ISIS pulled out. All his furniture had been stolen, and there was ash covering the floor. In the front garden, his flower beds had disappeared, and there was a gaping hole where Iraqi troops had dug up an IED.

It was a great shock, he says. [ISIS] destroyed everything.

THE LATEST NEWS IN PICTURES

In Photos: Iraqi Christians Fear Going Home

Afraid ISIS will rise again, thousands of displaced Iraqi Christians refuse to return to their homes.

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ISIS Is Almost Defeated in Iraq, but Thousands of Christians Refuse to Return to Their Homes - Newsweek

IS counterattacks in retaken parts of Mosul stall Iraq push – ABC News

Counterattacks by Islamic State militants on the western edge of Mosul have stalled Iraqi forces' push in the Old City, the last IS stronghold in the battle, an Iraqi officer said Tuesday.

The attacks forced Iraqi forces and the U.S.-led coalition to pull some assets away from the Old City to again clear the Yarmouk and Tanak neighborhoods, which were declared liberated of IS in May.

The assaults underscore the Sunni extremist group's resilience in the city, Iraq's second-largest, despite months of heavy fighting with Iraqi forces backed by U.S. air power.

According to the Iraqi officer, who spoke on condition of anonymity in line with regulations, the latest counter-attacks began on Sunday by scores of IS fighters dressed as Iraqi Shiite paramilitaries. The following day, he said, a dozen coalition airstrikes on Mosul's western-most edge killed about 40 militants.

The territory that the Islamic State group still holds in Mosul has been reduced to an area that now amounts to about 2 square kilometers (0.8 square miles) in the ancient Old City district.

Front lines were quiet in the Old City on Tuesday as Iraqi special forces scouted the terrain. Troops ducked into narrow alleyways, through bright courtyards and up balconies to reach positions with a view of the now destroyed al-Nuri Mosque.

IS fighters blew up the 12th century mosque in the heart of the Old City last week, along with its landmark minaret, according to the U.S.-led coalition and the Iraqi Ministry of Defense an act of destruction that the authorities in Baghdad interpreted as the militants' message of defeat in the face of the relentless Iraqi offensive. IS released a statement blaming a U.S. airstrike for the destruction.

The mosque was also hugely symbolic it was from a pulpit there that the Islamic State group's top leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi in July 2014 declared a self-styled "caliphate," encompassing territories held by IS in Syria and Iraq.

Iraqi special forces Lt. Gen. Abdul-Wahab al-Saadi said IS holds "very little" territory inside Mosul at the present moment, adding that he hoped the operation would be concluded within days.

But despite staggering territorial losses, IS has managed to launch a number of counterattacks and insurgent assaults inside some Mosul neighborhoods that were retaken from IS earlier this month.

The attacks also underscore the security threat that IS will likely pose, long after the militant group is routed from all of Mosul and other territory it holds in Iraq.

Iraqi forces launched an operation to retake Mosul's Old City just over a week ago, more than eight months after the fight to retake Iraq's second-largest city officially began.

This story has been corrected to show that Mosul is Iraq's second-largest city.

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IS counterattacks in retaken parts of Mosul stall Iraq push - ABC News

My first drone kill: One of the most wanted terrorists in Iraq – Salon

A Ranger team operating in the same area happened to be watching our live drone feed. We had a vast interconnected network across the battlefield, and it was necessary to collaborate. That they were watching was no secret. They didnt hear our conversations or know many of the details about our operations. Usually they just monitored our feeds for situational awareness and in case one of their aircraft needed to cross into our drones airspace.

Most times this interconnectedness worked.

Our special ops group didnt often hold specific territory. We went wherever we wantedunlike the Rangers, who were responsible for specific swaths of terrain.

Just to eliminate any problems, Max, the assault commander, had gotten the Ranger commander on the line to tell him that wed located Scarface in their operating area and that they should stand down.

Were good to go, Max had said to me. Theyre aligned with us.

On our monitors, the entire compound was now in view. Everyone had gone inside. The sun was out and there were no heavy winds or clouds on the horizon. Beautiful drone-flying weather. We were all set for a typical follow and began to wait it out.

I wondered if we should we bring in another asset just in case the one drone wasnt enough. Do we need a backup plan?

Another ten minutes went by, just waiting, the drone orbiting the compound as I skimmed through old files we had on Nasir, looking for anything.

Then Jake saw something flash out of the corner of the screen. Multiple vehicles are approaching the compound from the main road, he called out. What?

Theyre coming fast.

Shit, those vehicles look large. Zoom in to see what kind of vehicles they are.

The camera operator took us in.

What the fuck is this? Those are American Strikers. Whats going on?

Strikers were very distinct: eight big wheels, a rocket launcher, a manned turret. They were almost as large as tanks and built to carry troops into combat zones. Now there were four of them barreling toward the compound, speeding like they were going to conquer the territory, huge dust clouds rising in their wakes. One crashed right through the gate, while the other three followed behind and lined up in formation parallel to the house.

Who the hell were these guys?

In the Box, we stared in disbelief as the scene played out. Suddenly I had no control. It was scary. Not a situation anyone wants to be in. We watched as the Strikers rear door ramps dropped open and soldiers in full camouflaged combat gear jumped out, automatic weapons leveled at the compound and pressed up against the vehicles for cover.

Army Rangers.

The Predator camera operator confirmed: U.S. forces in the picture.

Son of a . . . someone yelled next to me.

We just confirmed that they werent going to be there, right? Right?

Everyone was looking around the room in agreement.

One of the soldiers had a loudspeaker pressed to his face and we could tell that he was yelling into it, probably calling for Scarface to come out.

Knowing him, he was not going to step out with his hands up. Meanwhile, Max was on the phone with the Ranger commander again. He was pissed, spitting into the mouthpiece. What the fuck, I thought we were on the same page with this? Why are your guys at the fucking compound?

After a brief, heated discussion, Max hung up. The Ranger commander blamed the whole thing on a breakdown of their comms system; he was unable to call his guys off before they showed up at the house.

Thats such bullshit, I said. I dont believe it. The comms systems dont just go down. It was clearly a case of the Rangers wanting to take credit for a big target. We were on their turf and they didnt want anyone showing them up, even if wed found the guy.

There was no time for bitching.

All right, guys, it is what it is, but we need to support them now. Switch the Predator to squirter control.

Squirters were people who scurried or squirted out the sides of a building or car or escaped an explosion.

The Predator now had a completely new mission to perform force protection of U.S. troops in the picture. Wed look for any threats to the Rangers and make sure no one escaped out the back.

But the compound was still quiet. For a solid five minutes or so no one came out, despite the megaphone.

Finally, a woman hesitantly walked out of the front door. She had three children by her side and her hands were full of something. The younger male walked out behind her. At the front of the house, the group came to a full stop.

Typically, people were asked to stop moving in a situation like this to ensure they didnt have any bombs or weapons.

The woman and children started to walk very slowly and carefully toward the soldiers and were then guided to places behind the Strikers. After a brief pause, one male followed, leaving one inside.

We all put our headsets on and switched to the Rangers radio frequency.

One guy was in the middle of explaining what they found out. The woman told us that the male in the house asked to have all the guns brought to him. He hugged them goodbye, gave them his phone and money, and told them to leave immediately. She said the man told her that he was not coming out.

Thats when the shots came.

I could see the muzzle of an AK-47 sticking out of a high window, spraying the ground in front of the house, like he had just blown threw a line of coke. The Rangers returned a blizzard of fire.

In our camera, we could see hundreds of bullets like little flashes of light, streaking the air, pummeling the house.

The barrage of bullets kept coming.

But the guy wouldnt die. The muzzle of his AK-47 still stuck out sporadically through different windows in the house, spraying rounds everywhere.

Then, out of nowhere, the Striker launched a rocket, demolishing the top corner of the house and opening a huge hole in the roof.

Switch to infrared, I said.

Now the drone camera operator zoomed into the corner to see if we could get a glimpse inside the house.

Within minutes another rocket hit the same top corner of the house, opening an even larger hole and damaging the complete exterior. Thats when we saw a body curled on the ground: lifeless and contorted in a way that a body should not be.

The Rangers eventually stopped firing and a quiet settled over the scene. It seemed like hours had passed because of the chaos. After a long waiting period, the Rangers moved into the house.

Was this Scarface? Or someone else? I worried that there were others in the building. But my biggest concern was that Scarface was wearing a suicide vest and was trying to draw them in.

The drone continued to maintain a solid orbit around the compound, the camera still looking for other signs of life or squirters. It took a good five minutes for the all-clear but we finally heard it come over the radio.

We have confirmed jackpot, one enemy KIA.

In the Box, we were conflicted. We were of course happy that Scarface wouldnt live to see through his attack on American forces. His death would be a big blow to the network. All that was good. But a part of me couldnt help but wish wed followed him for a few days or weeks longer. Manhattan and Brooklyn were still lurking out there.

Staring at the feed, I couldnt take my eyes off the lifeless body. Id found Scarface and brought the Rangers here. Intentionally or not, it was my first kill.

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My first drone kill: One of the most wanted terrorists in Iraq - Salon