Archive for June, 2017

PC Opposition maintains lead ahead of Liberals: CRA poll – CBC.ca

The latest research from a Halifax-based political polling group shows the Newfoundland and Labrador Progressive Conservatives continue to have the most support among decided voters, but one-third of the people surveyed don't know who they would vote for.

Corporate Research Associates released results from a poll conducted from May 4 to June 1 on Wednesday.

Tories have 40 per cent of support among decided voters, while the governing Liberals have 34 per cent. That's just a single percentage point change in support for reach party PCs in February had39 per cent support, while Liberals had 33 per cent.

The provincial New Democrats are down to 24 per cent support, compared to 26 per cent three months ago.

Undecided voters total 32 per cent of people polled, while two per cent declined to answer. Five per cent said they either support none of the parties, or do not plan to vote.

When it comes to party leadership, Premier Dwight Ball had a very slight increase in support 23 per cent, compared to 21 per cent three months ago.

PC Leader Paul Davis had36 per cent support, up from 33 per cent in February.

NDP Leader Earle McCurdy saw the biggest change, with 16 per cent, down from 23 per cent.

Thirteen per cent of people polled supported none of the leaders, while 12 per cent said they have no defined opinion.

CRA's poll is part of its Atlantic quarterly report, and was conducted over the phone.

It's based on a sample of 804 adult residents, with overall results accurate within plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, in 95 out of 100 samples.

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PC Opposition maintains lead ahead of Liberals: CRA poll - CBC.ca

Politics Briefing: Liberals announce change in defence policy – The Globe and Mail

Good morning,

Today is the second hit in the Liberals one-two policy punch.

Yesterday, Chrystia Freeland laid out the governments post-Trump vision for foreign relations. You can read the full half-hour speech here. The tl;dr version is: because the United States has shrugged off the burden of world leadership, Canada and other countries must step up to defend the global order against threats as disparate as terrorism and climate change.

Now, with the governments reasoning established, it will unveil what it plans to do about it. The defence policy review (more here), released at midday local time, will explain the militarys plans for overseas deployments and what the government plans to spend in procurement over the next 20 years.

This is the daily Politics Briefing newsletter, written by Chris Hannay in Ottawa, Mayaz Alam in Toronto and James Keller in Vancouver. If you're reading this on the web or someone forwarded this email newsletter to you, you can sign up for Politics Briefing and all Globe newsletters here. Let us know what you think.

CANADIAN HEADLINES

Former U.S. president Barack Obama echoed some of Ms. Freelands sentiment in a speech in Montreal last night. In Paris, we came together around the most ambitious agreement in history to fight climate change. An agreement that even with the temporary absence of American leadership will still give our children a fighting chance, he said. Afterwards, he and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau got a bite to eat.

In the House of Commons, MPs voted last night on a motion stating that climate change is still a problem and that Canada remains committed to the Paris Accord on reducing emissions, despite the United States withdrawal. The motion passed 277 to 1. The lone holdout was Conservative MP Cheryl Gallant of Eastern Ontario.

The Liberals also backed a Conservative motion in support of the controversial Trans Mountain pipeline expansion project even as B.C. remains uncertain over its political future. The motion passed 252-51 with support from the entire Tory caucus and almost all Liberals. The NDP and Greens, whose provincial alliance in B.C. threatens the project, all voted against supporting the project.

The Liberals are cleaning up some provisions in the Criminal Code, including the introduction of some measures meant to protect victims of sexual assault.

A showdown between senators and the Liberal government over a bill to end sexual discrimination in the Indian Act continues, with a Quebec chief saying the Liberals are raising unnecessary concerns about the number of new people who would be eligible for status.

Kevin OLeary wants a recount.

And as Ontario businesses and residents begin to start preparing for a $15 minimum wage a dichotomy has emerged: small business owners are saying theyll be squeezed by the hike while low-income workers say the increase has the potential to be life-changing.

John Ibbitson (The Globe and Mail) on the Liberals new foreign policy: Welcome to the Trudeau Doctrine: Canadian foreign policy seeks to preserve multilateral institutions and the Western alliance in the wake of America First. This will not go down well with the prickly and, it seems, at times paranoid American President. And it contradicts earlier efforts to preserve good relations with the Trump administration in the lead-up to renegotiating the North American free-trade agreement.

Stephanie Carvin (The Globe and Mail) on turning vision into reality: It is important for Ms. Freeland to articulate an understanding of where she believes Canada to be in a fast-changing world. On Tuesday, she did so convincingly. But the true test of her skills as a minister will be putting this vision into practice and successfully navigating Canada through Mr. Trumps choppy waters.

David Bercuson (The Globe and Mail) on mixed signals: There is a massive inconsistency between what Minister Freeland declared and the signals the government has been putting out through Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.

Susan Delacourt (iPolitics) on the importance of trade: Provocatively, the speech also put the crisis in world trade in the same category as Russias seizure of Ukrainian territory and world terrorism itself as a breakdown in rules, order and the sanctity of borders.

Nik Nanos (The Globe and Mail) on opportunity for the NDP: With many of their progressive policies co-opted by the Liberals, the NDP presenting themselves as another moderate social democratic movement could lead them to political oblivion in the short term. One option for the NDP is to veer left of the Liberals, reclaim the New Democrat populist heritage and attack U.S. President Donald Trump.

B.C. UPDATE

As B.C. prepares for a possible referendum on electoral reform, it could look to the experience of New Zealand, which switched from the traditional first-past-the-post system to proportional representation 25 years ago. The NDP and the Greens, which are preparing to take down Premier Christy Clarks minority government, have promised a referendum next year. It would be B.C.s third the province held two failed referendums in 2005 and 2009 on a system called single-transferable vote. In the 1990s, New Zealand adopted a mixed-member system, in which voters choose a local representative and also pick from a separate list thats used to ensure the final seat breakdown match the popular vote. Experts there say its been a success and has resulted in a stable government, despite concerns about fragile coalitions, and it has increased the representation of minorities in New Zealands Parliament. In B.C., the New Democrats and Greens havent said which system theyll propose.

And B.C. Premier Christy Clark, whose government will likely be defeated in a confidence vote later this month, is warning the New Democrats it would be disastrous to delay construction on the Site C hydroelectric dam. Ms. Clark has written the leaders of the NDP and Greens, who want a fresh review. NDP Leader John Horgan says evictions related to the dam and other decisions should stop during the transition. But Ms. Clark says that could cost the province $600-million.

David Moscrop (Macleans) on redoing the B.C. election: In our democracy, the people are the ultimate arbiters of who gets to govern insofar as they elect the members of the legislature who get to determine who the premier will be. But its unclear where the popular will lies.

INTERNATIONAL HEADLINES

Some of the largest business lobbies in Canada, the U.S. and Mexico are banding together to champion the North American free trade agreement. The groups are pushing for as little to change in the deal as possible when negotiations begin later this year.

Two assailants with rifles -- one of whom detonated a bomb he was carrying on himself -- have struck the Iranian parliament in Tehran. Islamic State claimed responsibility for the attack, marking the first time the group has launched a major assault in Iran.

Qatar has long punched above its weight on the international scene. The small nation of 2.5 million people has the third-highest amount of natural gas reserves and is in the top 15 for oil reserves, hosts a large U.S. air base and owns and operates the Al Jazeera media network. Now, after a diplomatic blacklisting orchestrated by Saudi Arabia the country is left in a difficult position. It didnt help that U.S. President Donald Trump took to Twitter to support several Arab states decision to cut ties with Qatar over its alleged support for terrorism.

British voters head to the polls tomorrow for the 2017 general election. Although national security issues have been the major talking point in the past few days much of the election has been focused on domestic issues such as healthcare funding. The BBC has broken down where the parties stand on major issues ranging from social services to Brexit.

When Mr. Trump refused to reaffirm Americas commitment to NATOs principle of mutual defence last month he omitted 27 words from his speech: We face many threats, but I stand here before you with a clear message: the U.S. commitment to the NATO alliance and to Article 5 is unwavering. The omission was not planned and took his senior staff by surprise. Allies took the speech as a sign that the U.S. was retreating from its position in the world and prompted German Chancellor Angela Merkel to say that Europe could no longer rely on America, much like Ms. Freeland told the House yesterday.

Today, U.S. Director of National Intelligence Daniel Coats testifies in the Senate on ties between the Trump team and Russia. Last night a report emerged that in March Mr. Trump asked Mr. Coats to stay behind after a cross-departmental national security meeting. Mr. Coats and CIA Director Mike Pompeo were the only people as Mr. Trump complained about FBI Director James Comeys handling of the Russia investigation. Mr. Coats told associates that Mr. Trump asked if he could intervene in the investigation.

U.S. Attorney General Jeff Sessions offered to resign in recent weeks but Mr. Trump refused to accept his offer. In his daily press briefing Press Secretary Sean Spicer refused to say whether or not Mr. Trump still has confidence in Mr. Sessions.

And in Mr. Trumps world, everything seems to be two weeks away. Bloomberg takes note of the number of times the President has promised action on a particular file in two weeks time, and how those self-imposed deadlines are often missed.

Lawrence Martin (The Globe and Mail) on James Comey: Playing the role that John Dean did in the Richard Nixon Watergate drama wouldnt bother James Comey. Hes become the architect of White House fate. He torpedoed Hillary Clintons bid to become president. He could now torpedo Mr. Trump as President. Or help save him.

Sarah Mason-Case (Policy Options) on how Paris is not Kyoto: Perhaps the most notable sign that the world is on a different path this time around is the shift in attitudes and actions in the private sector and subnational jurisdictions. These advances are well publicized: the proliferation of renewable energy (and the impending demise of coal), disclosure of climate risks in corporate reporting, mass litigation compelling states to act, municipal partnerships to reduce emissions, subnational carbon pricing and more. Innovative approaches to address climate change are proliferating. Since controlling climate change was always going to require transformations across national boundaries, in jurisdictions down to the local level and by all public and private actors, some might say these burgeoning initiatives are whats needed or what persuaded countries to reach the Paris Agreement in the first place.

Jeffrey Jones (The Globe and Mail) on electoral uncertainty: A hot trend is sweeping the worlds of energy, environment and politics. That is, an agreement is valid only as long as the government in the jurisdiction that signs it does not get voted out in an election. This is very troubling. Or its reason to cheer. Maybe its both, depending on which side of an issue one supports. One things for sure: This fad heaps huge risks on investors as they try to guess which deal will hold up and which ones will fall apart for political reasons. (for subscribers)

Follow Chris Hannay on Twitter: @channay

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Politics Briefing: Liberals announce change in defence policy - The Globe and Mail

Democrats Keep Losing, but They May Be on Track to Win – New York Times


New York Times
Democrats Keep Losing, but They May Be on Track to Win
New York Times
The president's approval ratings are stuck in the upper 30s, and the party out of power typically does well in off-year elections. But so far, Democrats don't have any big wins to show for it. Republicans won special congressional elections in Kansas ...

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Democrats Keep Losing, but They May Be on Track to Win - New York Times

Democrats Once Had Only Contempt for James Comey. But That Was Then. – New York Times


New York Times
Democrats Once Had Only Contempt for James Comey. But That Was Then.
New York Times
Those were among the harsh words top Democrats used to toss around about the actions of James B. Comey during his tenure as director of the F.B.I. Their anger and resentment over his handling of the Hillary Clinton email matter and other issues were so ...
The Donald Trump resistance is working and Democrats can't let upUSA TODAY

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Democrats Once Had Only Contempt for James Comey. But That Was Then. - New York Times

Democrats zero in on voters who spurned them – Politico

The Democratic Governors Association on Tuesday convened its polling, analytics and media consultants in downtown Washington to unveil a model designed to give the party better intelligence about where, and whom, to target in the closing days of an election. | AP Photo

By Steven Shepard

06/07/2017 01:25 PM EDT

Updated 06/07/2017 04:06 PM EDT

Stung by a slew of late-breaking defeats in recent governors races, Democrats believe theyve come up with a new turnout model that will better predict how those contests will break in the final days.

The Democratic Governors Association on Tuesday convened its polling, analytics and media consultants in downtown Washington to unveil a model designed to give the party better intelligence about where, and whom, to target in the closing days of an election. The idea is to bolster campaigns understanding of undecided voters, but also to identify which voters might switch from one party to the other at the ballot box.

Story Continued Below

Its the latest step in the partys effort to revamp their polling operations following now-President Donald Trumps upset victory last fall. Theres a sense of urgency attached to the project: The 38 governorships up in 2017 and 2018 may represent the partys best shot at returning to power before the 2020 presidential election.

This kind of redefines, at some level, undecided voters and the difference between an undecided and a persuadable voter. Just because someone says theyre undecided in a poll doesnt mean theyre persuadable, said DGA Political Director Corey Platt. And just because someone says theyre with you doesnt mean theyre not persuadable. And so this is a better tactical tool to help identify who the people are that we need to persuade at the end.

Republicans now control 33 of the nations 50 governorships the most since 1922 in large part because GOP underdogs eked out victories over the past four cycles against Democratic favorites in a number of states, despite polling that led Democrats to believe they were headed to victory. Kansas Gov. Sam Brownback, Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan and Maine Gov. Paul LePage are among those who trailed in many of the polls before the 2014 election, but ultimately prevailed.

The harshest blow came the year after, when most observers expected Democrat Jack Conway to win the off-year race in Kentucky. But Republican Matt Bevin defied the polls and defeated Conway easily.

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Last year, Democrats similarly fell short in Indiana and Missouri, even though their pre-election surveys suggested each race was winnable. Similarly, exit poll data indicates late-deciding voters broke sharply for Trump over Hillary Clinton in the three northern states that provided Trump with his Electoral College majority: Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

As part of a pre-planned effort, Democratic pollster Jefrey Pollock, president of Global Strategy Group in New York, led a project to re-contact voters in Indiana and Missouri along with two states where Democrats won the governors race, Montana and West Virginia to figure out what happened at the gubernatorial level in 2016.

The research, shared with POLITICO, suggests that while each state was different, Republicans won undecided voters in Indiana and Missouri by margins that likely proved decisive in those close races.

In Indiana, the research shows, half of voters who said they were undecided before the election said they voted for now-GOP Gov. Eric Holcomb, compared to only 28 percent for Democrat John Gregg. Moreover, 10 percent of voters supporting Gregg before the election said they ended up voting for Holcomb, while only 6 percent of Holcomb voters backed Gregg.

The late break in Missouri was even more stark. Republican Eric Greitens won 55 percent of undecided and third-party voters, according to the analysis, while Democrat Chris Koster won only 21 percent of these voters.

While part of the error was systemic the polls overestimated Kosters support across the state, but particularly in places like Springfield, Pollock said that was dwarfed by the undecided who broke toward Greitens by wide margins.

But Pollock who said his analysis factored in poll respondents tendency to overstate their support for the actual winner also noted that the Democratic candidates in Montana and West Virginia held the line among late-deciding voters.

The model the DGA hopes to implement uses other polling, demographic and commercial data to identify the universe of truly persuadable voters the specifics of which the DGA and Pollock say are proprietary.

Its not just the undecideds. Its also that theres a bunch of people who may very well switch, Pollock said. Seventy or 80 percent of voters arent switching. But that 20 percent who are they?

For now, the DGA is hopeful that party operatives working on gubernatorial races will embrace this new model, though theres no guarantee it will gain widespread acceptance.

This isnt about the DGA imposing particular standards, said Elisabeth Pearson, the DGAs executive director. Everybody, especially after 2016, is looking for ways that we can improve some things, change some things. I think its going to be great.

While the new approach helps identify persuadable voters, it doesnt in and of itself solve Democrats most significant problem: From last years presidential race back to the 2014 midterms, more late-breaking elections broke toward Republicans.

I think theres no question that theres been a Democratic headwind that we have had to fight against, said Pollock. Thats true on the governors race level, thats true in Senate races. Thats why we are where we are. And thats why national politics do matter.

But, Pollock added, Trumps current unpopularity could flip the script for the party if it holds and make Democrats the beneficiaries of any late movement.

What I fear, though is that we would overlearn that example and go into what looks to be right now a tremendous potential year thanks to Donald Trump and the backlash [against him], Pollock said. And, all of a sudden, we would have overlearned all the wrong lessons.

Pollock hopes the new model will help the party solve a problem that has dogged it for the past three year -- one that he knows all too well.

[Fellow Democratic pollster] Fred Yang and I sat in this room [last year] and told a whole bunch of people, Thats what happened in 2015 in Jack Conways race, Pollock said Tuesday in an interview at DGA headquarters, citing the late movement toward Republicans in the Kentucky race.

And it felt like bulls---. Even as I was presenting it: Its like, this all feels like a massive cover-up for the pollsters. To be like, No, no, no, no. We swear all these people moved. And yet, thats actually exactly what happened in these [2016 governors races], and it happens to be what happened in the presidential.

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Democrats zero in on voters who spurned them - Politico