Archive for June, 2017

Progressives consider, or don’t, life after Bernie Sanders – CNN

This was Saturday night in Chicago, at the People's Summit, and as Sanders addressed loyalists from around the country, rows of diehard supporters, many wearing red, chanted and waved placards with at least one banner declaring an intention to "Draft Bernie."

Asking "what comes next" as it pertains to his 2020 plans is a nonstarter with the Vermont independent. The future, as organizers here are quick to argue, is happening now. Coalition-building on the left, fighting to take hold and remake a party Sanders has pointedly refused to formally join, and strategizing ahead of the 2018 midterms are, truly, the work of the day. Projecting out four years is a stickier wicket, one Sanders has assiduously avoided discussing in any meaningful way.

"It's a little bit early to be talking about 2020," a spokesman told CNN over email. "His focus right now is on defeating Trump's disastrous agenda, to defeat the Republican health care bill that would take health care away from 23 million people and on advancing a progressive agenda to help working families across the country."

Sanders might not enjoy the constant queries, but they are not going away, and not simply because nosy narrative merchants in the mainstream media cannot abide -- or sell readers on -- the nuances of movement politics. Sanders' plans are important, as many activists here readily concede, for reasons they learned the hard way, as his campaign became increasingly hamstrung by the limits of its insurgency. For most here, though, falling short in 2016 was only a first step.

"Absolutely, he should run again," said freshman California Rep. Ro Khanna, who unseated a fellow Democrat, eight-term congressman Mike Honda, last year. "If you look at from the perspective of anyone in the past, if they come that close to the nomination, they'd almost be the de facto nominee the next time. I don't think he should be anointed -- we shouldn't make the mistake of 2016 again -- but absolutely he should run."

Khanna made the political case: Sanders, he said, has the vision, the stamina and "trust at a time when people don't trust anyone in politics" -- but also zeroed in on more pragmatic concerns.

"One of the advantages he would have this time is he'll have an infrastructure, (the support of) more elected officials and the apparatus to be strong," Khanna said.

Among the loyalists at the People's Summit, a three-day convention organized by National Nurses United, the most active and vocal pro-Sanders union, there is broad support for another presidential run. And while most would prefer he again fight for the Democratic Party nomination, others are itching for an independent campaign. The "Draft Bernie" group wants Sanders to break away from the Democrats and form a "People's Party," which he would use to launch either his own 2020 bid or as a platform to lift up another progressive national candidate.

Maria Svart, national director of the Democratic Socialists of America, told CNN the organization would support Sanders if chose to run, but wasn't holding its breath waiting for an announcement. She also spoke about the importance of not leaving the decision until too late.

"He needs to build capacity now and build the ground team," Svart said. "He needs to make a plan, to do what he didn't have time to do last time around, which is absolutely necessary this time around."

Unlike in 2015, when Sanders entered the race and began to draw raucous crowds, and 2016, when his suddenly formidable challenge to Hillary Clinton finally faltered, there is now, in effect, a campaign-in-waiting on the left. Sanders' own "Our Revolution" is a formidable political organization, if for no other reason than its vaunted email list. And an increasingly activated and savvy progressive movement would flock to do the grassroots work most candidates would struggle to match.

Still, Jane Sanders is, like her husband, plainly annoyed by the speculation.

"That's exactly the wrong question," she told CNN's Wolf Blitzer last November, days after Trump defeated Clinton. "Nobody cares (about Sanders' 2020 plans) except the political pundits. He is not -- he's concerned about 2017."

Six months later, the realities of the presidential campaign life cycle are beginning to demand a more nuanced response. Sanders' silence on the matter could eventually put off other potential candidates, allies who might not enter if the godfather of the "Berniecrat" movement was lurking on the sidelines.

"I would say that we intend to play a role in the 2020 election," Sanders told CNN during a brief interview on Saturday, adding with a rare fatalist note: "What that is remains to be decided, but nobody should step back. They should be completely engaged now and the leadership will rise. It will emerge."

"I want him to continue to do the work of building a people's movement that is bigger than him," she said, the added with a knowing smile, "And then secondly, yes, I want him to run for president in 2020. Why not?"

Of 2016, Turner said, Sanders simply "needed more time" to match Clinton's organization and reach out to voters.

But there is another clock that might be working against Sanders. Even among devoted supporters here, his age -- Sanders will be 78 when 2020 contests begin -- is a prevailing area of concern.

"I like the idea of him running for president because I think he would do a good job, I just don't think that most of the public will believe that he has the strength and endurance to make it another eight years, let alone four, as president," said Ben Klahn, who organized for Sanders in Michigan.

Klahn recalled a friend telling him recently that she hoped Sanders would "choose someone who really represents him and his ideals and what he stands for and sort of anointing them and having them carry on the movement. To take it from his hands and run with it."

Like who?

"Oh god, I have no idea," he said. "No idea."

Sanders might consider the Democratic Party a mess -- he described its "current model and the current strategy" as an "absolute failure" in a rip-roaring speech Saturday night. But the state of his own movement, though humming along at the grassroots level with a coherence unusual for the left, suffers from at least one very familiar problem: the lack of a bench at the highest echelons.

Were Sanders to stand down, progressives would be met not just with a lack of consensus on who to back in 2020, but few easily named options. Where the liberal center of the party has ambitious elected officials in the mix like Sens. Cory Booker of New Jersey, Kirsten Gillibrand of New York and Kamala Harris of California, to name a few, the progressive field is quieter. Were she to run, Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, who has made inroads with the party establishment, has the bona fides to woo the left, but her decision to endorse Clinton over Sanders is still painful for activists who expected her support.

People for Bernie Sanders co-founder Winnie Wong, one of the lead organizers in Chicago, compared the state of play among progressives with the moderate liberal wing of the party, embodied by the Center for American Progress, a Washington think tank run by longtime Clinton ally Neera Tanden.

"CAP has a slate of people that they think maybe will become their candidate," Wong said. "We do not."

"There's a general consensus among all these groups here that there isn't a single candidate that we are uniting behind," she added, "but we would obviously unite behind and organize up behind Bernie."

If they get the chance.

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Progressives consider, or don't, life after Bernie Sanders - CNN

Open thread for night owls: LeopoldWill progressives only talk to themselves? – Daily Kos

Les Leopold, executive director at The Labor Institute writesWill Progressives Only Talk To Themselves?

For the last generation, progressives have organized themselves into issue silos, each with its own agenda. Survival depends on fundraising (largely from private foundations) based on the uniqueness of ones own silo. Each group must develop its own expertise and activities which distinguish it from other groups. Each needs to proclaim that its issue is the existential threat, be it climate change, police violence, abortion rights or health care. The net result of this Darwinian struggle is a fractured landscape of activity. The creativity, talent and skill are there in abundance, but the coherence and common purpose among groups is not.

Siloed organizational structures also make it extremely difficult to cooperate on a common program to reverse runawayinequality, There is little incentive to form a grand progressive alliance to build what the Sanders campaign, for example, had set in motion. Better to launch your own national effort and claim that it is the center of the organizing universe.

It is therefore not surprising that the two biggest progressive challenges to runawayinequalityin the last decade Occupy Wall Street and the Sanders campaign did not arise from within these siloed organizations. OWS largely grew from a notice in Adbusters, a Vancouver, BC, journal. Most of those who did the occupying at the 900 encampments also did not come from progressive siloed organizations. In fact, the non-profit/NGO community more or less watched from the sidelines.

Similarly, the Sanders campaign also did not emerge from a concerted effort among progressives to create a new politics within the Democratic Party. Rather, it was driven by Bernies own social-democratic vision that he had been espousing for over 40 years, year after year after year. When his effort showed signs of life, progressives broadly divided between the idealists feeling the burn and the pragmatists seeking to back a sure winner, who at least would provide access to progressive ideas.

The advent of Trump certainly has unleashed an enormous amount of progressive activity. In addition to the many sizeable marches, there are now approximately 5,000 Indivisible groups making life miserable for Republican office holders. However, nearly all of this activity is anti-Trump and defensive. There is no common Indivisible national agenda, nor is there a common organization to set a coherent strategic direction.

More importantly, pure anti-Trumpism guarantees we will be talking to the already convinced. By focusing solely on Trump, it becomes next to impossible to reach the Trump voters who also voted for Sanders and Obama.

Some argue that such outreach is a waste of time because there really are not that many Obama-to-Sanders-to-Trump voters. Unfortunately, exit polls do not give us enough data to reasonably estimate the size of this hybrid voting population. But sources inside the United Steelworkers, for example, report that 50 percent of their members who voted, voted for Trump. Given how representative those members are of the broader working class, were probably looking at several million Obama-Sanders-Trump voters.

We do know this: In the state of Michigan there was a 500,000 vote loss from Obama (2012) to Clinton (2016). It was minus 290,000 in Pennsylvania and minus 222,000 in Wisconsin.

Very few, if any of our siloed progressive organizations are targeting these working people. Danger ahead. [...]

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We are the people who run this country. We are the deciders. And every single day, every single one of us needs to step outside and take some action to help stop this war. Raise hell. Think of something to make the ridiculous look ridiculous. Make our troops know we're for them and trying to get them out of there. ~Molly Ivins, from her final column, January 11, 2007

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BLAST FROM THE PAST

At Daily Kos on this date in 2002No charges against Padilla:

Once upon a time, security agencies needed things like "charges," or "probable cause" to arrest and detain someone. Thanks to the WOT, that's no longer necessary. Case in point: The alleged "dirty bomb" suspect that had the press in titters the last two days. While headlines trumpeted a victorious blow against terror, the government's case against gangbanger Jose Padilla was nothing more than vapor. The latest in this bizarre saga? Rumsfeld now admits that the US is not going to arrest Padilla. They just want to 'question him'.

Yet at the same time, in violation of everything this country and its Constitution stand for, he is being held "indefinitely". This is getting really scary.

Ontoday'sKagro in the Morningshow:Greg Dworkinrounds up the Trump Trainwreck. On the radar: GA-06 andVA-Gov. Trumps trust gap is yooge. Will Republicans skip recess toavoid constituentswork? Latest legal wrangling over emoluments, explained. Caesar? Thats just locker room talk!

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Open thread for night owls: LeopoldWill progressives only talk to themselves? - Daily Kos

Liberals lead quarterly poll report as Andrew Scheer looks to boost Conservatives – CBC.ca

As parliamentarians prepare for the summer break and Conservative Leader Andrew Scheersettles into his new job, polls suggest the Liberals retaineda comfortable lead over theirrivals in the last quarter, haltinga steep decline in support suffered earlier this year.

In polls conducted between March1 and May 31, the Liberals averaged 40.7 per cent support among decided voters, a slight increase over where the party stood in the previous quarter.

That should come as a relief to Justin Trudeau, whose party dropped 6.8 points in popular support during the winter.

(Red: Liberals, Blue: Conservatives, Orange: NDP, Green: Greens, Teal: Bloc Qubcois) (Natale Holdway)

The Liberals declinedfor the third consecutive quarter in British Columbia, the Prairies and Atlantic Canada, but arestill polling above their2015 federal election result largely due to the gains the partyhas held in Quebec.

The Conservatives trailedwith 30.3 per cent support as the leadership race was coming to an end, a drop of 1.5 points from the previous quarter. The party balanced gains in the Prairies and Atlantic Canada with losses in Alberta, Ontario and B.C., wherethe Conservatives are still polling significantly below 2015 levels.

The New Democrats, in the midst of a leadership race of their own and who have gained 4.3 points over the last two quarters, were up to 17.6 per cent, their best quarterly result since the last election.

The party was boosted by gains in B.C., Ontario and Quebec, though the NDP is still below its 2015 election result in that province.

The Greens and Bloc Qubcoisaveraged 5.3 and 4.8 per cent support, respectively.

While it is too early to know what Scheer's short-term impact on the Conservatives' polling numbers will be, a few surveys have provided some hints.

Scheer, a Saskatchewan MP who beat a crowded field to takethe leadership in May, was previously the House Speaker. The 38-year-old narrowly defeated Quebec MPMaxime Bernierin the contest to replace former prime minister Stephen Harper

A Mainstreet/Postmedia poll gave the Conservatives a two-point bump with Scheer as leader. A Forum Research poll showed the Conservatives down one point compared to where they stood in April.

Neither of these shifts wasstatistically significant.

Nanos Research, which conducts a four-week rolling poll, published new numbers on Tuesday with half of the sample dating from after Scheer's leadership win. It put the Conservatives at 30.5 per cent, up from the 28.6 per cent Nanos pegged the party at just before Scheer took over.

But the sample still contains pre-Scheer data. More polls will be needed before Scheer's impact if any can be adequately judged.

Polls by Mainstreet and the Angus Reid Institute (ARI), however, suggest Scheer has work to do to become better known. Fully 63 per cent of respondents in Mainstreet's poll were not familiar with Scheer or were not sure of their opinion of him, while ARI put the number of Canadians who have either not heard of Scheer or who were only familiar with his name at 75 per cent.

Since the last quarter, the Liberals suffered their steepest declines in Quebec and Atlantic Canada.

The Liberals led with 42.4 per cent support in Quebec, down 2.3 points from the last quarter but still up almost seven points from the last election.

The NDP, at 19.2 per cent, was still six points below its election performance (the NDP-to-Liberal swing in Quebec remains the largest anywhere in the country) but has gained 4.9 points over the last two quarters.

At 19.7 per cent, the Bloc is polling narrowly above its 2015 election result. The party gained 1.5 points since the last quarter, suggesting new leader Martine Ouellet might have had only a small positive impact on the party's fortunes.

The Liberals dropped 7.5 points over three consecutive quarters in Atlantic Canada, falling to 54.7 per cent. The Conservatives, who picked up 5.5points over that time, were up to 24 per cent.

The Conservatives were down over three points in both B.C. and Alberta in the last quarter drops that a new Western Canadian leader may help to reverse.

The Conservatives were down to 24.4 per cent in B.C., putting them still well below their 2015 election result in the province.

The Liberals dropped for the third consecutive quarter in B.C. to 37.8 per cent (down 8.4 points over that time).

The New Democrats, at 25.8 per cent, gained 7.4 points over the last two quarters, perhaps buoyed by the provincial NDP'srecent success in B.C.

The Conservatives were down 3.3 points in Alberta to 56.7 per cent. The Liberals were over 30 points back at 26.3 per cent.

In Saskatchewan and Manitoba, the Conservatives gained for the third consecutive quarter to hit 43 per cent, followed by the Liberals at 32.6 per cent. The party has dropped 9.9 points over the last three quarters in the two provinces.

The Liberals led in Ontario with 43.9 per cent, followed by the Conservatives at 34.2 per cent. Compared to the previous quarter, the margin between the two parties widened by over four points.

But while the Liberals and Conservatives have been wobbling back-and-forth in the province, the New Democrats have made gains in three consecutive quarters, up 4.5 points over that period to hit 16.4 per cent nearly matching their 2015 election result in Ontario.

Altogether, the numbers suggest that the Liberals would have been able to secure another majority government in an election held in the last three months. In all likelihood, it would have been an expanded majority primarily thanks to inroads in Quebec at the expense of the NDP.

But the Conservatives would have held their own, roughly matching their 2015 result. If former interim leader Rona Ambrosewas hoping to "do no harm" before she handed the party off to her successor, she was successful. Any new Conservative gains or losses from here on out will be Scheer's alone.

These quarterly poll averages are based on the results of 14national and regional public opinion polls conducted between March 1 and May 31 2017 by eightdifferent pollsters, interviewing just under 23,000 Canadian adults using a variety of methodologies, including online panels, interactive voice response and telephone interviews.

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Liberals lead quarterly poll report as Andrew Scheer looks to boost Conservatives - CBC.ca

BC Liberals drop referendum requirement for new transit funding – CBC.ca

The new B.C. minister responsible for TransLink has announced an about-face on his party's stance on Metro Vancouver transit funding.

Sam Sullivan says if Metro Vancouver mayors want a new transit funding mechanism like a regional sales tax, a referendum will no longer be required.

"What has changed? It's called 'an election,'" Sullivan told On The Coast host Stephen Quinn.

"We just hollowed out in the urban areas of Vancouver. [Premier Christy Clark] heard that message loud and clear.

"She approached me, asked my opinion on where we went wrong, how we could repair this relationship both with the municipal governments and the voters and the urban areas. I said the most symbolic thing we could do, for a start, is get rid of this referendum requirement."

Sullivan says now that he is minister for the time being getting more transit in Metro Vancouver will be a top priority.

The Liberals insisted on the necessity fora referendum for new transit funding during the 2013 election, as well as during the run-up to the unsuccessful transit referendum in 2015 and even just months ago, during the 2017 election, whenClark reiterated her commitment to one during the leaders' radio debate.

"The NDP have said that they want to give the mayors the right be able to to hike people's taxes: vehicle levy, sales tax, who knows what it would be?" she said.

"We are still committed to making sure that if there is any new revenue source required from cities for TransLink, we will go to a referendum on that. We won't just let them hike taxes."

But now, Sullivan says his party is interested in connecting with urban voters, especially with an election coming possibly sooner than four years from now.

"These will be values we are going to the voters with."

Listen to the full interview with Sam Sullivan:

Simon Fraser University political scientist David Moscrop says while the about-face could be viewed as cynical politics, it's also an example of the democratic system working.

"A party adjusted its policy because it's what people wanted."

But if Sullivan, a former Vancouver mayor, was the driving force for the change, it could speak to him taking on a more prominent role in the party.

His appointment as minister of community development and minister responsible for TransLink this week is his first time in cabinet.

Moscrop suspects this might be the first of several policies the Liberals rethink, as they look for a way to return to power in the event they lose a non-confidence voteat the end of June as expected.

Moscrop agrees an election could come sooner than expected, and the Liberals know they need to do better in Metro Vancouver.

"They became arrogant, out of touch. And now they've got some re-evaluation to do," he said.

"It could very well be that this is people saying, 'look, if youwant to govern again,this is the way it's gotta be. you're going to need Metro Vancouver.'"

With files from CBC Radio One's On The Coast

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BC Liberals drop referendum requirement for new transit funding - CBC.ca

Campaign director Laura Miller stepping down from BC Liberals – The Globe and Mail

Laura Miller has parted ways with the BC Liberals after an election result that appears set to force the party from power and several months before she is scheduled to stand trial in Ontario for charges related to that provinces gas-plant scandal.

Ms. Miller, who joined the BC Liberals just before the 2013 election and returned this year as campaign director, announced her departure on Twitter: I am moving on professionally and geographically.

She leaves as the party faces almost certain defeat in the legislature.

The May 9 election left her party, which has held power for 16 years, reduced to 43 seats. The NDP and the Greens, with a combined 44 seats, have reached a deal to topple the Liberals at the first opportunity. Premier Christy Clark appointed a new postelection cabinet this week, but acknowledges that in the wake of the election, she expects to lose a vote of confidence in the House later this month.

The Premier has not acknowledged the election result as a loss and her party said in a statement that Ms. Millers departure was always in the works: Laura signed on to see the party through the 2017 campaign, and now is transitioning out of her role as planned, a party official said in a statement.

Ms. Miller has become a controversial figure in Ontario and B.C.

She is scheduled to go to trial this fall in Ontario on a criminal charge of breach of trust stemming from the deletion of e-mails about the Ontario Liberals costly decision to cancel two gas plants before the 2011 election. Ms. Miller has said she plans to mount a vigorous defence and has raised nearly $80,000 through a crowdfunding campaign to pay her legal costs.

The charges prompted her to temporarily step away from her job as executive director of the BC Liberals in late 2015, but she returned last year in the lead-up to the election campaign.

Ms. Miller was at the centre of a mid-campaign gaffe this spring when the BC Liberals were forced to backtrack on her claim that a voter who tried to speak to Ms. Clark at a campaign event was an NDP plant. The citizen was brushed off by Ms. Clark after saying she wasnt voting for the Liberals, sparking a widespread social media backlash, with the hashtag #IAmLinda.

Ms. Clark has repeatedly expressed support for Ms. Miller and defended her conduct in the Ontario Liberal government, describing her as a person of the utmost integrity.

Ms. Millers departure comes as the Liberals prepare to recall the legislature on June 22, launching a process that is expected to lead to the defeat of the minority Liberal government.

While the Premier acknowledges the party is likely to lose, she has insisted her government must follow parliamentary conventions to the letter rather than hastening its own demise.

The Liberals initially suggested they would throw a wrench into the works by refusing to have any of their MLAs to stand as Speaker of the house as Parliamentary convention dictates.

Because the balance of power will be so precarious, the political party that gives up a member from their voting ranks will lose a critical advantage.

The Speaker can vote to break ties in the House, but it will be challenging to pass legislation if that becomes the routine requirement.

Now, Ms. Clark says her party will ensure a Speaker is in the chair as long as her party sits on the government benches. So as long as we are in government, we will ensure that theres a Speaker.

On Tuesday, Green Leader Andrew Weaver challenged Ms. Clark to not only ensure a Liberal sits in the Speakers chair, but he said that person should remain in the post even if the Liberals fall on a confidence vote.

It is entirely not tradition to have a Speaker resign. If they do that, she is playing politics and frankly I think the electorate will punish the BC Liberals for that, he said.

We are elected to put British Columbians first, not to put our political ambitions and careers first.

Andrew Wilkinson, a senior Liberal cabinet minister, said the problem of the Speaker is one that the NDP and the Greens should have figured out before they reached a pact to bring down his government.

They have to have a workable arrangement thats going to work for governance of British Columbia, and its becoming clear they havent thought this through.

Follow Justine Hunter on Twitter: @justine_hunter

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Campaign director Laura Miller stepping down from BC Liberals - The Globe and Mail