Archive for May, 2017

No Iran polling stations in Canada for upcoming election: Feds – The Globe and Mail

The federal government will not allow Iran to set up polling stations in Canada for its upcoming presidential election a decision that comes as the countries quietly work to re-establish diplomatic relations.

Irans permanent representative to the United Nations in New York sent a diplomatic note to Canadian officials around April 10 requesting that polling stations be established so that Iranians in Canada could vote in the May 19 election, according to the Iranian interests section at the Pakistani embassy in Washington. Members of the Iranian-Canadian community were also pressuring the government to allow them to cast their ballots in Canada. The request was denied by the Canadian government.

A source familiar with the matter said the request could not be accommodated because the Canadian government generally requires foreign countries to set up their polling stations at their diplomatic missions in Canada. Iran doesnt have a diplomatic presence in Canada, as the two countries severed relations in 2012, so there is no appropriate place to hold the elections under the current regulations. The source also said Irans request came too late.

The Iranian Canadian Congress (ICC) said Ottawas decision is disappointing, but not something they suspect will damper the efforts to renew diplomatic relations between Canada and Iran.

It is definitely something that is not positive that Canada may not be able to accommodate the voting, but I think we should look at Canada-Iran relations long term and hope that the countries re-establish diplomatic relations at the first opportunity, ICC president Bijan Ahmadi said.

The polling station issue also came up during a phone call between Foreign Affairs Minister Chrystia Freeland and her Iranian counterpart Javad Zarif on Monday, the source said. Speaking with Mr. Zarif for the first time, Ms. Freeland also raised Canadian consular cases of concern during the call; the source would not say which specific cases were discussed.

Three Canadian government officials are in Tehran this week advocating for those consular cases and improvement of Irans human-rights record, according to the source. Its the latest in a string of meetings between Canadian and Iranian officials, who have been quietly working behind the scenes to re-establish diplomatic relations between the two countries.

Canadian and Iranian officials have also met numerous times on neutral territory to discuss re-engagement since the Liberal government took power in November, 2015.

A Canadian government source who asked not to be named because of the sensitivity of talks said Canadian and Iranian officials met in Switzerland in May, 2016, to discuss the re-engagement process. Another source familiar with the matter confirmed that officials have also met in New York on three occasions since Justin Trudeaus Liberals formed government twice in 2016 and once in early 2017.

Senior Global Affairs officials leading the Iran file and a senior representative from the local Canadian mission attended the meetings in New York and Switzerland. A source said officials sought clear political direction from the government heading into the meetings with their Iranian counterparts.

Former foreign affairs minister Stphane Dion also met his Iranian counterpart, Mr.Zarif, last September on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York, where they discussed the imprisonment of Canadian-Iranian professor Homa Hoodfar who was released the following week and paths to re-engagement. Prof. Hoodfars case had the potential to scuttle re-engagement efforts.

Canadas plan to renew ties with Iran puts its approach at odds with that of its closest ally the United States and could become a point of friction with President Donald Trump, who continues to take a hard line against Iran.

If Canada was to go in the completely opposite direction by making diplomatic progress while [Mr. Trump is] trying to roll things back, I think he would take that personally, said James Devine, an Iran expert at Mount Allison University.

Last month, The Wall Street Journal reported that the President ordered aides to toughen a State Department letter declaring Iran had complied with a landmark nuclear deal.

The ICCs Mr. Ahmadi said Mr. Trumps position does not appear to have impacted Canadas plans to renew ties with Iran. However, there is concern that the unpredictability of U.S. foreign policy and the Iranian presidential election this month could delay the re-engagement process.

We think that President Trump should not define our foreign policy approach. Prime Minister Trudeau made a promise to change our foreign-policy approach, Mr. Ahmadi said.

The previous Conservative government expelled Iranian diplomats from Canada and closed the Canadian embassy in Tehran in September, 2012, over concerns about Irans support for Syria, its refusal to comply with UN resolutions on its nuclear program and its deplorable human-rights record.

While some members of the Iranian-Canadian community were eager to see Iranian diplomats go, others remain frustrated by the consular nightmare spurred by the closing of the embassy. Experts say the move also diminished Canadas voice in Iran, complicating its ability to communicate with the regime on everything from human-rights concerns to the imprisonment of Canadian citizens.

The Liberal government has openly favoured dialogue over withdrawal, especially when it disagrees with governments such as Iran. It took its first step toward easing relations with Iran in February, 2016, by lifting sanctions on Irans financial services, imports and exports. The move came after the United States and European Union lifted sanctions under the nuclear deal led by former U.S. president Barack Obama.

Canadas most recent ambassador to Iran, John Mundy, who was expelled from Iran in 2007, said that reciprocity is critical as the governments work to re-establish diplomatic ties. Thats why the Iranians will likely take issue with a Harper-era law, known as the Justice for Victims of Terrorism Act, which allows victims of terrorism to sue state sponsors of terrorism. Last year, an Ontario Superior Court judge ordered that $13-million worth of Irans non-diplomatic assets in Canada be handed over to victims of terrorist groups sponsored by the regime.

Thomas Juneau, a University of Ottawa expert on Iran who spent 11 years at the Department of National Defence, said the law puts the Liberal government in a difficult political position.

Delisting Iran amounts to saying Iran is not a state sponsor of terrorism.

There are logistical concerns on the Canadian side, as the government doesnt own any property in Iran. The Canadian embassy ended its lease agreement in Tehran months after it severed relations. The Iranian embassy in Ottawa, which has sat empty since diplomats were kicked out in 2012, is owned by the Iranians.

Canada and Iran could take a number of gradual steps toward the eventual reopening of embassies and exchange of ambassadors. Mr. Juneau said both governments could start by opening interests sections in each others countries. For instance, the Pakistani embassy in Washington houses an Iranian interests section, where Iranians can obtain travel documents.

Mr. Mundy said the governments could also appoint a charg daffairs a diplomat who oversees a mission in the absence of an ambassador.

In the past, Canadian businesses were eager to re-establish relations with Iran. But now that Canada, the United States and the EU have lifted sanctions and the playing field is more even for Canadian businesses operating in Iran, the Canadian Chamber of Commerce said interest in re-engagement has toned down.

The Iranian-Canadian community is not as united on the idea of re-engagement. On one side of the argument, the Iranian Canadian Congress has supported the renewal of relations, saying the diaspora has suffered disproportionately since 2012 because it has been unable to access consular services.

Iranians in Canada can go to the Iranian interests section in Washington for consular services, but Mr. Ahmadi said many are hesitant to cross the U.S. border as they are concerned they will be subjected to Mr. Trumps travel ban. The ban, which has been put on hold by a U.S. federal-court order, would block citizens of Iran, Somalia, Syria, Sudan, Libya and Yemen from applying for U.S. visas for 90 days. While Iranian-Canadian dual citizens are allowed to enter the United States, Iranian permanent residents in Canada would have to apply for a waiver to do so.

There is another faction of the community that is strongly opposed to re-engagement.

Nazanin Afshin-Jam, a prominent Iranian-Canadian human-rights activist who is married to former Conservative cabinet minister Peter MacKay, has publicly denounced Irans egregious human-rights record and called on the government to shut down the Iranian embassy in Ottawa in 2012, accusing the Iranians of using the office as a recruitment centre. She warned the government against letting Iranian diplomats back into Canada.

Mr. Trudeau wanted Canada to re-establish relations with Iran soon after forming the government, according to a source, but the process proved more complicated than anticipated. The source said the timeline for re-engagement can be measured in months, with the possibility of an agreement this year.

Follow Michelle Zilio on Twitter: @michellezilio

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No Iran polling stations in Canada for upcoming election: Feds - The Globe and Mail

Is Iraq prepared for the day after ISIS in Mosul? – Rudaw

As Iraqi forces continues to advance against ISIS militants in West Mosul, their defeat is inevitable, which raises the salient question about Iraq's readiness and preparation for administrating the city after the militants removal.

Analysts on Iraq, while worried, do believe there are some glimmers of hope that the city can be substantially stabilized after its completely pried from the caliphate's grip.

There are no real plans, it is all improvisation at the moment. Resources are being thrown piecemeal at needs as they become available, said Michael Knights, the Lafer Fellow at the Washington Institute and noted Iraq analyst.

A patchwork of road, water and electricity reconstruction is evident, he added.

When asked if Baghdad will be able to secure, stabilize and rebuild Mosul long-term after ISIS's removal Knights responded in the affirmative, but added that the long-term is a long way away.

Dylan O'Driscoll, a former analyst the Middle East Research Institute (MERI) think-tank in Erbil who now works at the Humanitarian and Conflict Response Institute (HCRI) at the University of Manchester, warned of ill-planning before the Mosul operation began. Political timetables in both Baghdad and Washington saw both powers overlook the importance of anticipating how to deal with the long-term situation in Mosul, as opposed to just the immediate military task of removing the militants.

Before the beginning of the operation last October he wrote a report on Mosul and the future of the wider Nineveh region published by MERI which outlined the shortcomings of current plans, or lack thereof, for that areas future. O'Driscoll compared this to the poor post-conflict planning following the 2003 American-led invasion of Iraq, and the instability which subsequently plagued the country ever since, and warned that if Mosul's liberation is devoid of long-term planning it will likely result in the resurfacing of a number of issues responsible for the rise of ISIS in Iraq in the first place.

I still share the same concerns I had when my report on the future of Nineveh was published before the military campaign began last year, O'Driscoll told Rudaw English. I don't see adequate preparation for the governance of the province post-ISIS and the necessary institutional restructuring is widely being ignored.

At the same time, there is very little development of coordinated localized security solutions allowing for the long-term security of the province. On the development side, things are also moving slow, particularly with regards to restarting the economy.

O'Driscoll fears that a combination of these factors will see Nineveh quickly becoming a geopolitical playground where multiple entities are competing for influence.

He does nevertheless see some positive indicators for the future of the region.

The resilience of the local people has been immensely impressive and in my opinion Haider al-Abadi has grown as a leader, O'Driscoll concluded.

Joel Wing, an Iraq analyst who runs the Musings on Iraq blog, is also anxious about the city's future. However, he already sees some positive developments on the city's east side, which was completely recaptured in January.

When east Mosul was freed some residents started complaining that they were not getting any help from the government to rebuild, Wing said. Nineveh officials told the press that they had a plan for reconstruction as well as Baghdad. Now that tune has changed. Nineveh officials admit that they are working on a plan right now, but they say there's no money for it.

Wing says this is a huge problem given the fact that Mosul is such a large city with so many needs.

East Mosul has some areas there were heavily damaged, but most of it looks pretty good, and already some services are being restored slowly, he added. The west however looks pretty devastated. If there's not a serious rebuilding plan that could cost Baghdad the support it has won from the residents for liberating them.

Wing also points out that stabilizing and rebuilding Mosul is a process which will have to include a large security component.

The contracts have to be policed and investigated because the Islamic State is going to try to exploit them to raise money and rebuild, he concluded.

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Is Iraq prepared for the day after ISIS in Mosul? - Rudaw

Former US prisoner now leading Iraq’s Interior ministry – Military Times

BAGHDAD Just over 10 years ago, Qasim al-Araji was being arrested a second time by American forces in Iraq. The charges were serious: smuggling arms used to attack U.S. troops and involvement in an assassination cell at the height of sectarian violence that engulfed Iraq following the 2003 toppling of Saddam Hussein.

Now, he heads of one of Iraq's most powerful ministries.

With credentials that include training from Iranian special operators known as the Quds force and time spent as a guerrilla and militia commander, Iraq's Interior Minister al-Araji is now trumpeting his respect for human rights and support for the U.S.-led coalition in the fight against the Islamic State group. But the forces he now commands have a long history of Shiite domination and abuse, factors that partially contributed to the rise in support for ISIS in Iraq.

Back in 2007, al-Araji was held by the United States for 23 months. He spent most of his captivity at Bucca prison, including long periods in solitary confinement.

Today, at the head of one of Iraq's most powerful ministries, al-Araji laughs off questions about lingering hostility toward U.S. forces.

"That's life," he said in a recent interview with The Associated Press, his manner boisterous and unpolished as he shuttled between meetings at a small Interior Ministry office inside Baghdad's highly fortified Green Zone. "I was their prisoner and now I meet with their ambassador."

Al-Araji's office confirmed that he met with the U.S. ambassador to Iraq within days of taking office to express his support for the U.S. role in the fight against ISIS and to request additional support for his ministry and forces.

Following a controversial March 17 strike in Mosul that killed more than 100 civilians, al-Araji took a rare public position for an Iraqi politician: he defended the U.S.-led coalition and the use of airstrikes in Mosul on the floor of Iraq's parliament.

"My most important goal is to bring security to Iraq," al-Araji said, "and (to achieve that) Iraq is in need of the friendship of the Americans."

Under al-Araji, the Interior Ministry has already received more support from the U.S.-led coalition.

In the fight for Mosul, greater coalition air and ground support for Iraq's federal police who fall under the command of the Interior Ministry have allowed them to take a lead role in the city's west.

The U.S.-led coalition is also training and arming local and border police across Iraq, other forces that now fall under al-Araji's command.

But Iraq's police are some of the same forces who were accused of using excessive force, carrying out mass detentions of Sunni males and routinely torturing detainees in the lead-up to the summer of 2014, according to human rights groups and a 2013 State Department report on human rights practices in Iraq. The abuses contributed to Sunni resentment of central government rule and fueled support for ISIS extremists in Iraq's Sunni north and west.

Al-Araji, who spent years in exile in Iran, first traveled there as a teenager in the 1980s and was trained by Iranian special forces as a guerrilla fighter to resist Saddam Hussein's regime. In the Iran-Iraq war, he fought on Iran's side. Al-Araji describes his years in Iran as a fighter as formative.

After the fall of Baghdad in 2003, al-Araji and thousands of other fighters poured across the border into Iraq.

"We didn't have any military activities," he said of his first days back in Iraq, "but we were supporting the overthrow of the regime. The Americans didn't understand, we were both working for the same end."

On April 19 that year he was arrested by U.S. forces on suspicion of commanding militia forces, held for 85 days and then released on insufficient evidence. In 2004, following the fall of Saddam, al-Araji said he fully transitioned to politics, running for local office in Baghdad's Wasit province.

But three years later he was arrested again by U.S. forces. A secret cable from the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad on Jan. 19, 2007, published by WikiLeaks stated that U.S. forces "had good information based on multiple sources," that al-Araji was "involved in smuggling and distribution" of explosives that were being used to target U.S. forces and that he was "also suspected in involvement in an assassination cell."

After nearly two years, al-Araji was again released on insufficient evidence.

"I believe every difficult stage leaves something inside a human being," al-Araji said. "Being a prisoner taught me patience, it made me stronger."

Al-Araji returned to local politics, rose through the ranks of the Badr organization and became a parliamentary bloc leader.

After the fall of Mosul, Badr's military wing closely supported by Iran racked up a string of high profile victories against ISIS in 2014. In the months that followed, Badr and the group's leader Hadi al-Amiri rode the wave of those victories for political gain in Baghdad and secured de-facto control of the country's Interior Ministry.

Badr member Mohammed al-Ghabban was appointed to lead the ministry in October 2014, but was forced to resign in July 2016 amid mounting anger following a massive truck bombing claimed by ISIS in central Baghdad that killed more than 300 people.

Al-Araji appointed in January takes over the ministry at a critical time for the country's security forces who are under increasing pressure to eliminate the last pockets of ISIS control, prevent an insurgency from bubbling up in the wake of territorial victories, and repair their reputation in Iraq's Sunni heartland.

British Ambassador to Iraq Frank Baker told the AP he talks to al-Araji regularly. He described him as an "an Iraqi patriot" who "faces many challenges but is doing a very good job for Iraq and the Iraqi people."

Looking back at his career, al-Arajii says some things about him have changed.

"With my current position comes great responsibility," he said, explaining that because of that he considers the choices he makes carefully.

"But as a person, I have not changed, I'm the same."

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Former US prisoner now leading Iraq's Interior ministry - Military Times

Mexico Surpasses Afghanistan and Iraq As The World’s Second-Deadliest Conflict Zone – Task & Purpose

After six years of civil war, Syria remains the bloodiest battlefield on the planet. But theres one other conflict zone whose violence in recent years has come to eclipse both the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and the bloodshed is right on Americas doorstep.

Thanks to the rising tide of cartel violence, Mexico surpassed Iraq and Afghanistan to become the worlds second-deadliest war zone in 2016, according to the annual Armed Conflict Survey by the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

The reign of terror wrought upon innocent civilians by Mexicos drug cartels accounted for 23,000 fatalities in 2016, according to IISSs study of ongoing conflicts around the world. Thats compared with around 16,000 deaths in Iraq and 17,000 in Afghanistan. (All three pale in comparison to the sixth year of the Syrian civil war, which took more than 50,000 lives last year.)

The rise of cartel violence in Mexico isnt surprising: Bloodied bodies turn up on the local news on a seemingly regular basis, usually as a warning to journalists and law enforcement to keep their distance.

But compared with the conflict zones in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Syria, Mexico is a bit of an outlier in one key respect. Bloomberg reports:

Mexico is a conflict marked by the absence of artillery, tanks or combat aviation, IISS director general John Chipman said in remarks at the surveys launch in London on Tuesday. Virtually all of those deaths were caused by small arms.

The largest number of fatalities occurred in Mexican states that have become key battlegrounds for control between competing, increasingly fragmented cartels, he said, with violence flaring as gangs try to clear areas of rivals so they can monopolize drug trafficking routes.

According to the Department of State, at least 163 Americans were killed in Mexico between December 2014 and December 2016 thats only including deaths that State officially classified as homicides.

Since December, the State Department has maintained a travel warning for travelers to Mexico, stating that gun battles between rival criminal organizations or with Mexican authorities have taken place on streets and in public places during broad daylight, while U.S. citizens have been the victims of violent crimes, including homicide, kidnapping, carjacking, and robbery in various Mexican states.

The irony, of course, is that the conflict raging just below Americas southern border often spills over onto American soil.

And thats not just because of heroin, which killed more Americans than guns in 2015: According to the Drug Enforcement Agencys 2016 National Drug Threat Assessment, Mexican cartels work with smaller local criminal groups and gangs across the United States for retail drug distribution and transportation in major cities like Chicago, Boston, and Washington.

Though the cartels U.S. associates generally refrain from inter-cartel violence that accounts for the high fatality rate in 2016 to avoid police scrutiny, its their ambitions and vendettas that are increasingly accounting for growing gang violence across the U.S., according to the DEA.

Its no surprise that the cartels have turned our southern neighbor into a battlefield on par with Iraq and Afghanistan. But the problem Mexico poses for the U.S. is similar to that posed by our faraway battlefields: What can America do to stop the violence, much less prevent its spread domestically?

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Mexico Surpasses Afghanistan and Iraq As The World's Second-Deadliest Conflict Zone - Task & Purpose

Occupational Hazards review headlong rush through Rory … – The Guardian

For once I wished a play had been longer Henry Lloyd-Hughes as Rory Stewart in Occupational Hazards. Photograph: Marc Brenner

There have been plays, such as David Hares Stuff Happens, that examined the causes of western intervention in Iraq. Stephen Browns adaptation of Rory Stewarts 2006 memoir of his time as a provincial governor in post-Saddam Iraq is one of the first to look at the actual consequences. The result is instructive, enlightening and very well staged by Simon Godwin but, at 105 minutes, it leaves too little time to pursue the questions that it raises. For once, I wished a play had been much longer.

Stewart currently seeking re-election as a Tory MP is the pivotal figure of the story. Having been a diplomat and foot-slogging explorer of the Middle East, he volunteers his services to the newly created Coalition Provisional Authority in Baghdad in 2003.He is deputed by its chief, Paul Bremer, to go to the south to Maysan and help create a modern, secular Iraq. The play charts his attempts to impose a democratic structure on the provinces hostile factions.

At one point, Stewart complains of being bombarded with a torrent of information and the audience is in much the same position. To be fair, Brown does a decent job of untangling the complex threads of a chaotic situation. Stewart first has to face the demands for jobs, electricity and wages for the police. His prime task, however, is to create a council that will reconcile the followers of a tribal sheikh, Karim Mahood, and a radical Islamist cleric, Seyyed Hassan. In the short term, he succeeds and even creates elections for the post of a locally appointed governor. What is achieved in the long term is open to debate.

Such is the helter-skelter rush of events, however, that there is no time to air the big issues. Can democracy be created by outside agencies? Do occupying forces inflame an already tense situation? What moral authority does the west have for nation-building? I appreciate that Stewart, in the heat of the moment, had little opportunity for abstract speculation. But, while Browns play effectively recreates the nightmarish conflicts Stewart faced, it would make better drama if it viewed his story in a wider historical perspective. It tells us what happened. It doesnt explore its larger political significance.

Godwins production, however, has a hurtling energy and makes good use of the auditorium to confirm Stewarts point that politics in Iraq is often a form of theatre. Henry Lloyd-Hughes admirably captures Stewarts youthful mix he was only 30 at the time of outward confidence and inner uncertainty. There is strong support from Silas Carson as the lordly Karim and Johndeep More as his clerical antagonist, and from Vincent Ebrahim as a harassed professor and Aiysha Hart as his progressive daughter seeking to improve the lot of Iraqi women. The play heightens our awareness of the hazards of foreign occupation, but drama ultimately depends on the conflict of ideas as much as the recreation of actual events.

Occupational Hazards is at Hampstead theatre, London, until 3 June. Box office: 020-7722 9301.

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Occupational Hazards review headlong rush through Rory ... - The Guardian