Archive for March, 2017

Places that saw more job loss to robots were less likely to support Hillary Clinton – Washington Post

Perhaps as many as 670,000 American jobs have been lost since 1993 thanks to the introduction of automation in manufacturing, according to new analysis from the National Bureau of Economic Research. The places most affected by that boom in automation that introduction of robots, if you will were also places that in 2016 were more likely to support Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Donald Trump over Hillary Clinton.

The NBER analysis, conducted by MITs Daron Acemoglu and Yales Pascual Restrepo, determined estimates of the number of robots introduced to a region between 1993 and 2007 for every 1,000 workers. Unsurprisingly, the region where that happened the most was Michigan, where the automotive industry in particular heavily automated its production processes.

(Our thanks to Acemoglu and Restrepo for sharing their data.)

That Michigan is so dominant in that map means that we can miss some more subtle gradations. By depicting the robot metric in buckets, we can see broader trends: The relatively large introduction of robotic workers throughout the Midwest and Rust Belt and along the Gulf Coast.

The NBER paper determined its figures using commuting zones, clusters of counties that share a common labor market. We went back and compiled numbers from the 2016 election for those counties, allowing us to correlate robot-introduction with 2016 voting patterns. Interestingly, the average number of robots introduced per every thousand workers over the 14-year period being considered was higher in areas where the 2016 vote was closer.

But that doesnt tell the whole story.

If we compare the number of robots introduced per 1,000 workers with the margin between Trump and Clinton in each of those 700-plus clusters, we notice that most of the zones where more than one robot was introduced for every thousand workers ended up backing Trump over Clinton. The most notable exception is in the commuting zone at the center of Michigan, where nearly five robots were introduced for every 1,000 workers but aided by the results in the home county of the University of Michigan ended up backing Clinton.

As is usually the case with election data thats linked to counties, all zones are not created equal. Hillary Clinton won the popular vote thanks to there being a lot more voters in the zones she won. Below, weve scaled the data points according to the total number of votes cast in each zone.

If we take this electoral data and relate it to the buckets we introduced in that second map, the effect is clear. Theres a correlation between the extent to which robots were introduced in a commuting zone and the extent to which the zone voted against Hillary Clinton.

Below, pitting Clinton against Trump, with data points again sized relative to the number of votes cast in each zone. The diagonal line is the trend in the data up and to the right, meaning that as a zone had more robots introduced from 1993 to 2007, it was also more likely to vote for Trump in 2016.

It holds true for the primary, as well. While data from the primary is a bit flukier, given that many states use low-turnout caucuses or may only offer results by congressional district. But again that diagonal line, up and to the right.

This is a very good example of the old saying correlation does not equal causation that is, just because theres a link between the number of robots introduced and the 2016 results doesnt mean that the robots led to those results. But given that the NBER research links automation to job loss each robot per 1,000 workers cost an estimated 6.7 jobs and given that job loss (particularly in the Midwest) has broadly been cited as a driving factor for support for Clintons opponents, these findings are at least logically consistent.

This study also reinforces another point that complicates President Trumps stated desire to bring manufacturing back to the U.S.: Manufacturing job loss stems to some significant degree from automation, not outsourcing. (The Brookings Institution looked specifically at that point.) It will be a lot easier, one can safely assume, to convince Ford or Chevy to build a new plant in Michigan instead of Mexico. It will likely be harder to convince them to staff it with humans instead of robots and if they dont, there might be political implications for Trump moving forward.

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Places that saw more job loss to robots were less likely to support Hillary Clinton - Washington Post

Phil Mickelson to take the Fifth if called as a witness in insider … – GolfDigest.com

AUSTIN, TX - MARCH 25: Phil Mickelson looks on after winning his match 4&3 on the 15th hole during round four of the World Golf Championships-Dell Technologies Match Play at the Austin Country Club on March 25, 2017 in Austin, Texas. (Photo by Richard Heathcote/Getty Images)

Phil Mickelson has long been known as one of golf's great talkers, but it seems he won't be opening his mouth at an ongoing insider trading trial. Mickelson, who was cleared last year of any wrongdoing in the case involving gambler Billy Walters, could potentially serve as a witness. However, Bloomberg News reported the five-time major champion is unlikely to be called to the stand because he would invoke his Fifth Amendment right against self-incrimination.

Mickelson's intention, reportedly, was revealed in court on Monday during a sidebar conference between lawyers and the judge.

"He is on our witness list, but we understand from his counsel he would invoke his Fifth Amendment if called," attorney Barry Berke said, according to a transcript obtained by Bloomberg. "So he will not be called as a witness, although his name will be mentioned."

Billy Walters, a golf buddy of Mickelson, stands accused of making $43 million on inside-trading tips received by Tom C. Davis, the former chairman of Dean Foods Co. Mickelson made nearly $1 million in trades involving Dean Foods after receiving information by Walters, but regulators didn't charge him with any crime. Mickelson has paid back the money and has been named a "relief defendant" by the Securities and Exchange Commission.

During jury selection earlier this month, Mickelson's fame was a common topic of discussion.

"Im going to excuse this juror," U.S. District Judge Kevin Castel reportedly told lawyers out of earshot of the potential jurors. "From my observations, there is an attachment. Mr. Mickelsons name is out there, but this juror impressed me with a different level of reaction. The look of rapture on her face at the mention of his name and her repeatedly saying it wouldnt influence her is enough for me."

At last week's WGC-Dell Match Play, Mickelson told the Associate Press, "I'm not a part of that . . . I'm out. I won't be called."

"I haven't even thought about it," Mickelson continued. "I don't think I'm going to say any more."

RELATED: Understanding the Phil Mickelson case

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Phil Mickelson to take the Fifth if called as a witness in insider ... - GolfDigest.com

Senate Intel Committee May Interview Ex-UK Spy Christopher Steele – NBCNews.com

The nations biggest association of police chiefs asked President Trump Wednesday not to punish sanctuary cities by cutting federal funding.

In a statement, the International Association of Chiefs of Police said, "[S]tate and local law enforcement agencies depend on the cooperation of immigrants, legal or not, in solving a wide array of crimes.Striking the proper balance between enforcement and cooperation requires the full participation of elected officials, community leaders and their law enforcement agencies."

The IACP said it opposed the use of sanctions to support policy. Penalizing communities by withholding assistance funding to law enforcement agencies and other critical programs is counter-productive to our shared mission of reducing violent crime and keeping our communities safe.

The Senate Intelligence Committee is in talks to interview Christopher Steele, the former British intelligence operative who compiled the dossier that alleges a conspiracy between the Trump campaign and Russia, three sources with direct knowledge told NBC News.

Steele, however, remains concerned about his safety and is not inclined to leave London. He is also concerned about how he might be treated by the Trump administration, according to the sources. The FBI was poised last fall to pay Steele, a former officer with the British Secret Intelligence Service, for information, but that deal fell through, sources familiar with the matter told NBC News.

Two Congressional officials told NBC News that the Senate Intelligence Committee has not yet reached an agreement on how and when to interview the Trump associates who have volunteered to testify, including Paul Manafort, Carter Page and Roger Stone. If any of those men seek criminal immunity for their testimony, the committee would not be inclined to grant it, officials say. The committee could then subpoena them, but they could assert their Fifth Amendment rights and refuse to answer questions.

Christopher Steele, the former MI6 agent who compiled a dossier on Donald Trump, poses in London where he has spoken to the media for the first time on March 7. Victoria Jones / PA via AP Images

A Russian man accused of attacking computers around the world, including thousands in the United States, pleaded guilty in federal court on Tuesday.

Maxim Senakh, 41, was arrested last year in Finland as he was returning to Russia from vacation a move that authorities in Moscow denounced as "an abuse of the law." Russia tried to persuade Finland not to hand over Senakh to American authorities, but he was ultimately extradited.

Prosecutors said Senakh admits he and his co-conspirators used malware to take over a globe-spanning web of computers, creating a botnet that directed users to Internet scams that generated millions of dollars.

He'll be sentenced Aug. 3 in Minneapolis federal court on one count of conspiracy to commit computer fraud and wire fraud.

President Trumps "cyber czar," ex-New York mayor Rudy Giuliani, has joined the defense team of a gold trader who is under federal indictment for fraud, money laundering and evading sanctions on Iran, and who has ties to Turkish President Recep Erdogan.

Reza Zarrab, 33, was arrested March 19 in Florida. Hes accused of ducking sanctions by moving hundreds of millions of dollars for the Iranian government and Iranian firms via offshore entities and bank accounts.

Prosecutor Joon Kim sent a letter notifying the judge in Zarrabs case that Giuliani had joined the defense, and that Zarrab had also hired ex-U.S. Attorney General Michael Mukasey. Kim said he was "advis[ing] the Court of potential conflicts of interest," since Giuliani and Mukaseys firms also represent some banks Zarrab used in transactions.

Erdogan defended Zarrab when the dual Turkish-Iranian citizen was fingered in a 2013 Turkish corruption scandal that also implicated Erdogan associates. The Turkish leader called Zarrab, who had given his wifes charity $4.5 million, a philanthropist. All charges against Zarrab and Erdogans pals were dropped.

Zarrabs lead attorney, Ben Brafman, told NBC News he would remain as lead counsel, and that neither Giuliani, Mukasey nor their firms would appear in court.

A former New York City prosecutor accused of forging judges' signatures to wiretap a colleague and a detective for personal reasons has been hit with federal charges.

Tara Lenich, 41, was indicted in federal court on Monday, four months after she was arrested and fired by the Brooklyn District Attorney's office, where she was a deputy bureau chief.

Authorities say that after Lenich forged the orders, she misappropriated equipment to eavesdrop on her targets' cellphones and also created bogus search warrants to obtain their text messages.

The scheme came to light when it was noticed that the wiretap orders were renewed again and again. A law-enforcement source said Lenich's motive was jealousy; she had a romantic interest in the detective and viewed a female prosecutor as a rival.

"Unfortunately, sometimes those close to the law stray far from the truth," FBI Assistant Director in Charge William Sweeney said. "As demonstrated today, however, everyone is expected to play by the rules; for this we'll make no exceptions."

Lenich's attorney did not immediately return a call for comment.

The anti-Assad, anti-ISIS group Raqqa Is Being Slaughtered tweeted out a graphic today that said coalition airstrikes on Raqqa, Syria, the ISIS capital, have increased by more than 100 percent since Jan. 1. Kurdish forces and U.S.-backed Syrian fighters are now massing north of Raqqa for a ground assault.

A top financial supporter of Hezbollah was arrested overseas earlier this month on an 11-count indictment unsealed Friday in federal court.

Kassim Tajideen of Beirut, Lebanon is charged with evading U.S. sanctions placed on his because of his financial support for Hezbollah, officially designated as a terror group by the U.S. government.

The arrest came after a two-year investigation let by the Drug Enforcement Administration, and is part of Project Cassandra, which targets Hezbollah's global support network. Tajideen is accused of operating front companies for Hezbollah, and was named a Specially Designated Global Terrorist in 2009.

The indictment says that over the past three years, Tajideen transferred more than $27 million via at least 47 wire transfers to individuals in the U.S., who helped Tajideen continue to do business with U.S. companies and ship U.S. goods out of the U.S.

Mark Warner, the ranking Democrat on the Senate Intelligence Committee, declined Thursday to endorse his House counterpart's assertion that lawmakers have been briefed on "more than circumstantial evidence," that Trump associates colluded with the Russian operation to interfere in the presidential election.

Leaving a closed-door briefing, the Virginia senator was asked by NBC News whether he agreed with Rep. Adam Schiff of California, the ranking Democrat on the House Intelligence Committee.

Schiff told Chuck Todd on MTP Daily Wednesday,"I can't go into the particulars, but there is more than circumstantial evidence now."

Warned responded, "There are ever increasing amounts of smoke."

Senior U.S. officials believe, based on the latest intelligence, that North Korea is not an immediate threat to the U.S. or Japan.

But South Korea is another story. The threat to South Korea, said one official, is "grave and current."

A senior intelligence official said that the U.S. assessment is that North Korea has eight to 10 nuclear weapons, with the number more likely to be eight than 10. That number is in line with estimates by outside experts. The Federation of American Scientists, for example, estimates 10-to-20, but as Hans Kristensen, director of the FAS Nuclear Information Project, says, "it is unclear if they are operational yet."

Miniaturizing warheads to put them on long-range missiles might be a challenge for the North Koreans. But Seoul is less than 40 miles from the DMZ that separates South and North. Korea has many shorter range missiles that could theoretically deliver nuclear payloads inside South Korea, as well as to border regions of China and Russia.

Kim Jong Un looks at a rocket warhead tip in this undated photo. (C) KCNA KCNA / Reuters / Reuters

The Pakistani Taliban said a U.S. drone strike over the weekend in Afghanistan killed a senior military commander who was known for his skill in training suicide bombers.

Qari Mohammad Yasin, also known as Ustad Aslam, died in a drone strike in Afghanistan's Paktika province. He was linked to an attack on the Pakistani military headquarters in Rawalpindi and an attack on a bus carrying Sri Lanka's national cricket team.

"We lost a brave man and the trainer of trainers in a U.S drone attack," said Asad Mansoor, the spokesman of Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan Jamaatul Ahrar ( TTP-JA), a splinter group of the Pakistani Taliban, presently based in Afghanistan.

Yasin was given the title "Ustad," or teacher, because he trained suicide bombers.

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Senate Intel Committee May Interview Ex-UK Spy Christopher Steele - NBCNews.com

Germany Refuses Turkey’s Request to Spy on Opponents of Erdogan – New York Times


New York Times
Germany Refuses Turkey's Request to Spy on Opponents of Erdogan
New York Times
BERLIN German officials acknowledged on Tuesday that they had rebuffed a request by the Turkish government to spy on its opponents in Germany, the latest strain to relations as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey pursues a referendum next ...
'Terrorism Godfather' Erdogan pursuing 'Third Reich-style' foreign policy top German MPRT
Erdogan vs Germanyvestnik kavkaza
Germany accuses Turkey of 'unacceptable' SPYING as tensions between the West and Islamist president Erdogan ...The Sun
Newsweek -teleSUR English -Al-Monitor
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Germany Refuses Turkey's Request to Spy on Opponents of Erdogan - New York Times

Canadian found guilty of insulting Turkey’s President Erdogan – The Globe and Mail

A Canadian woman detained in Turkey has been found guilty of insulting the countrys president, but said she has been released from prison as her lawyer pursues an appeal of the case.

Ece Heper said she is happy to be out of prison, where she had been held since late December after being charged for comments she wrote about President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on social media.

I still havent processed this, Heper told The Canadian Press in a brief interview Wednesday. I need a break, but Im OK.

Heper, a dual Canadian-Turkish citizen, said she had been awake for more than two days after a whirlwind trial in the northeastern city of Kars followed by her release and a 10-hour drive to a friends place in southern Turkey.

Her lawyer, Sertac Celikkaleli, said Heper was sentenced to two years and four months but has been released from prison while an appeal is pursued, although she cannot leave the country. After the term of her sentence is up, Heper will be banished from Turkey, he said.

Globe editorial: Turkeys Erdogan has thin skin, and it keeps getting thinner

The lawyer noted that there is a possibility Heper could return to prison depending on the outcome of the appeal.

The Canadian government is providing consular assistance to Heper from its embassy in Ankara, according to Global Affairs Canada spokesperson Austin Jean.

Heper, 50, has been in Turkey since November and was charged on Dec. 30, according to Celikkaleli. She got into trouble over Facebook posts about Erdogan.

In one posted on Dec. 28, Heper accused the president of jailing journalists who suggest there is evidence Turkey is supporting the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant, known as ISIS or ISIL.

Heper has a log home in Norwood, Ont., about 150 kilometres northeast of Toronto, according to her friend Birgitta Pavic, where she lives with five dogs she rescued from Turkey that are like her children.

Her parents are dead and she lost touch with her brother, Pavic said. Her friends previously said Heper had been spending more time in Turkey after meeting a man in southern Turkey near the Syrian border.

She told friends the man had been in exile and living in a Kurdish region in Syrias north. Pavic said Heper told her the man came back to Turkey and was arrested in September purportedly for a link to the Kurdistan Workers Party, or PKK, a group listed as a terrorist organization in Turkey.

Hepers friends said she was living in Mardin, a city in southeastern Turkey, but travelled to Kars to get the mans wife and bring her to visit him in jail. She was arrested in the womans home, her friends said.

Freedom of expression has become an issue in Turkey. Since becoming president in 2014, Erdogan has filed about 2,000 defamation cases under a previously seldom-used law that bars insulting the president.

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Canadian found guilty of insulting Turkey's President Erdogan - The Globe and Mail