Archive for March, 2017

Iran in Crisis – American Thinker

The recent dust storms that wreaked havoc in southwest Iran signaled only one of the many crises the mullahs are facing less than three months before critical elections. Tehran has been hit with severe blows during the Munich Security Conference, contrasting interests with Russia, the recent escalating row with Turkey, and most importantly, a new U.S. administration in Washington.

These crises have crippling effects on the mullahs apparatus, especially at a time when Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei sees his regime facing a changing balance of power in the international community, and is faced with a major decision of selecting the regimes so-called president.

Iran and Ahvaz

The dust storms crisis in Ahwaz, resulting from the mullahs own destructive desertification policies, caused severe disruptions in water and power services and people pouring into the streets in major protests.

The regime, and especially the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC), has for decades pursued a desertification policy of constructing dams, drying lagoons, digging deep oil wells beneath underground water sources with resulting catastrophic environmental disasters. Various estimates indicate the continuation of such a trend will literally transform two-thirds of Iran into desert lands in the next decade. This will place 14 to 15 million people at the mercy not only dust storms but also salt storms.

Iran and the Munich Security Conference

Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif attended this conference with a series of objectives in mind, only to face a completely unexpected scene. U.S. Vice President Mike Pence described Iran as the worlds leading state sponsor of terrorism. Saudi Arabia Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir said the mullahs are the source of threats and instability throughout the Middle East. Turkey went one step further and said Tehran is the heart of sectarianism and spreads such plots across the region, and all traces in Syria lead to Irans terrorism and sectarian measures.

This resembles a vast international coalition against Tehran, inflicting yet another blow to the mullahs following a new administration taking control of the White House. These developments are very costly for Khamenei and the entire regime.

In comparison to the early 2000s when the U.S. launched wars against Afghanistan and Iraq, Iran was the main benefactor. The current balance of power now is quite different, as seen in Munich. While there is talk of an Arab NATO, any coalition formed now in the Middle East will be completely against Irans interests.

Iran and Russia

Following a disastrous joint campaign in Syria, for the first time Russia is reportedly supporting a safe zone in Syria. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov said contacts have been made with the Syrian regime to establish safe zones in Syria. These are the first remarks made by any Russian official on the issue of safe zones in Syria.

Moscows increasing contrast in interest with Iran over Syria has the potential of playing a major role in regional relations. Russia certainly doesnt consider Bashar Assad remaining in power as a red line, a viewpoint far different from that of Iran. Moscow is also ready to sacrifice its interests in Syria in a larger and more suitable bargain with the Trump administration over far more important global interests.

Iran and Turkey

Yes, Ankara and Tehran enjoy a vast economic partnership. However, recent shifts in geopolitical realities have led to significant tensions. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan accused the mullahs of resorting to Persian nationalism in an effort to split Iraq and Syria.

Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu accused Iran of seeking to undermine Bahrain and Saudi Arabia as part of Tehrans sectarian policy. Cavusoglu used his speech in Munich to say, Iran is trying to create two Shia states in Syria andIraq. This is very dangerous. It must be stopped.

Tehran considers Ankaras soldiers in Iraq and Syria as a major obstacle in its effort to expand its regional influence.

U.S. president Donald Trumps strong approach vis--vis Iran and the possibility of him supporting the establishment of a Turkish-administered northern Syria safe zone may have also played a major part in fuming bilateral tensions between these two Middle East powers.

Erdogan has obviously realized completely the new White House in Washington intends to adopt a much more aggressive stance against Tehran. This is another sign of changing tides brewing troubles for Irans mullahs.

Iran and Presidential Elections

With new reports about his ailing health, Khamenei is extremely concerned about his predecessor. One such signal is the candidacy of Ibrahim Reisi, current head of the colossal Astan Quds Razavi political empire and a staunch loyalist to Khameneis faction, for the presidency. With former Iranian president Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani out of the picture, Khamenei may seek to seal his legacy by placing Reisi against Iranian president Hassan Rouhani in the upcoming May elections.

This is literally Khamenei playing with fire, as Reisi is considered a hardline figure and such an appointment may spark 2009-like protests across the country, as the country has become a scene of massive social challenges. Rouhani himself doesnt enjoy any social base support, especially after four years of lies and nearly 3,000 executions.

Final Thoughts

This places the entire regime in a very fragile situation. From the internal crises of Ahwaz, the upcoming elections and the formation of a significant international front threatening the Iranian regimes strategic interests.

Forecasting what lies ahead is truly impossible, making Khamenei and his entire regime extremely concerned, trekking this path very carefully and with a low profile. As we witnessed with the inauguration of Ronald Reagan, Iran immediately released the 52 hostages held for 444 days.

This regime understands the language of force very carefully. And yet, there is no need to use military force to inflict a significant blow and make Tehran understand the international community means business. Blacklisting Irans IRGC as a terrorist organization by the U.S. at this timing would be the nail in the coffin for the mullahs.

The recent dust storms that wreaked havoc in southwest Iran signaled only one of the many crises the mullahs are facing less than three months before critical elections. Tehran has been hit with severe blows during the Munich Security Conference, contrasting interests with Russia, the recent escalating row with Turkey, and most importantly, a new U.S. administration in Washington.

These crises have crippling effects on the mullahs apparatus, especially at a time when Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei sees his regime facing a changing balance of power in the international community, and is faced with a major decision of selecting the regimes so-called president.

Iran and Ahvaz

The dust storms crisis in Ahwaz, resulting from the mullahs own destructive desertification policies, caused severe disruptions in water and power services and people pouring into the streets in major protests.

The regime, and especially the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC), has for decades pursued a desertification policy of constructing dams, drying lagoons, digging deep oil wells beneath underground water sources with resulting catastrophic environmental disasters. Various estimates indicate the continuation of such a trend will literally transform two-thirds of Iran into desert lands in the next decade. This will place 14 to 15 million people at the mercy not only dust storms but also salt storms.

Iran and the Munich Security Conference

Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif attended this conference with a series of objectives in mind, only to face a completely unexpected scene. U.S. Vice President Mike Pence described Iran as the worlds leading state sponsor of terrorism. Saudi Arabia Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir said the mullahs are the source of threats and instability throughout the Middle East. Turkey went one step further and said Tehran is the heart of sectarianism and spreads such plots across the region, and all traces in Syria lead to Irans terrorism and sectarian measures.

This resembles a vast international coalition against Tehran, inflicting yet another blow to the mullahs following a new administration taking control of the White House. These developments are very costly for Khamenei and the entire regime.

In comparison to the early 2000s when the U.S. launched wars against Afghanistan and Iraq, Iran was the main benefactor. The current balance of power now is quite different, as seen in Munich. While there is talk of an Arab NATO, any coalition formed now in the Middle East will be completely against Irans interests.

Iran and Russia

Following a disastrous joint campaign in Syria, for the first time Russia is reportedly supporting a safe zone in Syria. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov said contacts have been made with the Syrian regime to establish safe zones in Syria. These are the first remarks made by any Russian official on the issue of safe zones in Syria.

Moscows increasing contrast in interest with Iran over Syria has the potential of playing a major role in regional relations. Russia certainly doesnt consider Bashar Assad remaining in power as a red line, a viewpoint far different from that of Iran. Moscow is also ready to sacrifice its interests in Syria in a larger and more suitable bargain with the Trump administration over far more important global interests.

Iran and Turkey

Yes, Ankara and Tehran enjoy a vast economic partnership. However, recent shifts in geopolitical realities have led to significant tensions. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan accused the mullahs of resorting to Persian nationalism in an effort to split Iraq and Syria.

Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu accused Iran of seeking to undermine Bahrain and Saudi Arabia as part of Tehrans sectarian policy. Cavusoglu used his speech in Munich to say, Iran is trying to create two Shia states in Syria andIraq. This is very dangerous. It must be stopped.

Tehran considers Ankaras soldiers in Iraq and Syria as a major obstacle in its effort to expand its regional influence.

U.S. president Donald Trumps strong approach vis--vis Iran and the possibility of him supporting the establishment of a Turkish-administered northern Syria safe zone may have also played a major part in fuming bilateral tensions between these two Middle East powers.

Erdogan has obviously realized completely the new White House in Washington intends to adopt a much more aggressive stance against Tehran. This is another sign of changing tides brewing troubles for Irans mullahs.

Iran and Presidential Elections

With new reports about his ailing health, Khamenei is extremely concerned about his predecessor. One such signal is the candidacy of Ibrahim Reisi, current head of the colossal Astan Quds Razavi political empire and a staunch loyalist to Khameneis faction, for the presidency. With former Iranian president Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani out of the picture, Khamenei may seek to seal his legacy by placing Reisi against Iranian president Hassan Rouhani in the upcoming May elections.

This is literally Khamenei playing with fire, as Reisi is considered a hardline figure and such an appointment may spark 2009-like protests across the country, as the country has become a scene of massive social challenges. Rouhani himself doesnt enjoy any social base support, especially after four years of lies and nearly 3,000 executions.

Final Thoughts

This places the entire regime in a very fragile situation. From the internal crises of Ahwaz, the upcoming elections and the formation of a significant international front threatening the Iranian regimes strategic interests.

Forecasting what lies ahead is truly impossible, making Khamenei and his entire regime extremely concerned, trekking this path very carefully and with a low profile. As we witnessed with the inauguration of Ronald Reagan, Iran immediately released the 52 hostages held for 444 days.

This regime understands the language of force very carefully. And yet, there is no need to use military force to inflict a significant blow and make Tehran understand the international community means business. Blacklisting Irans IRGC as a terrorist organization by the U.S. at this timing would be the nail in the coffin for the mullahs.

More here:
Iran in Crisis - American Thinker

Iran tests sophisticated Russian-made air defense system – DefenseNews.com

TEHRAN, Iran Iran successfully test-fired a sophisticated Russian-made air defense system, the official IRNA news agency reported on Saturday.

The report said the test of the S-300 system came during a recent military exercise named Damvand, the name of Iran's highest mountain.

It said the test targeted various flying objects including missiles. With a range of up to 200 kilometers (125 miles) the S-300 is capable of simultaneously tracking and striking multiple targets.

An Iranian military truck carries parts of the S300 missile system during the annual military parade marking the anniversary of the start of Iran's 1980-1988 war with Iraq, on September 21, 2016, in the capital Tehran. Photo Credit: Chavosh Homavandi/AFP via Getty Images State TV aired footage of the missiles launching from the back of trucks. It said the test was carried out in Iran's central desert.

Russia delivered the S-300 system to Iran in 2016, nearly 10 years after the initial contract had been signed. Iran signed the $800 million contract to buy the S-300 missile system in 2007, but Russia suspended their delivery three years later because of strong objections from the United States and Israel.

In 2016 a landmark nuclear deal between Iran and world powers went into practice under which Iran limited its nuclear activities in return for the lifting of sanctions.

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Iran tests sophisticated Russian-made air defense system - DefenseNews.com

France Plans Loans for Companies Wanting to Invest in Iran – Bloomberg

France is working on plans to issue direct loans to companies that want to invest in Iran, Finance Minister Michel Sapin said in a press conference in Tehran.

We are trying to help these companies, Sapin told reporters at the Ministry of Finance and Economic Affairs in Tehran at a joint press conference with his Iranian counterpart, Ali Tayebnia. They wil be able to apply for loans, but its not active yet. We are working on this.

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French companies were among the first to return to Iran after sanctions were eased last year under Tehrans nuclear deal with six world powers, but officials have said financing issues have hobbled some big infrastructure projects. Frances largest banks have been reluctant to do business with the oil-rich country because of remaining U.S. sanctions, and Iran lacks access to major international lenders.

Sapin said he was confident that banking relations between France and Iran would be normalized in due time and said he was seeking clarification from the U.S. government on the extent to which its sanctions will impact French banks working with Iran.

Irans largest state-run and partly state-run banks, Bank Melli and Bank Tejarat, have started brokerage services in France and were working with some French banks, Tayebnia said, declining to name them.

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France Plans Loans for Companies Wanting to Invest in Iran - Bloomberg

Iran’s GDP Growth at 7.2% – Financial Tribune

Iran's economic growth for three quarters of the current fiscal year (March 20-Dec. 20, 2016) stood at 7.2%, according to First Vice President Eshaq Jahangiri. As reported by Mehr News Agency, Jahangiri put the growth rate for the period without taking oil production into account at 5%. The details of Iran's GDP growth as per each economic sector have yet to be released by relevant government bodies, namely the Central Bank of Iran and the Statistical Center of Iran. Irans economy emerged from recession in 2014 with a 3% growth. The rebound followed two years of recession when the economy contracted 5.8% and 1.9% back to back, according to the Central Bank of Iran. Last year's (ended March 2016) growth was put at 0.9% by the Statistical Center of Iran. Prior to Jahangiri's Saturday remarks, the latest statistics on Iran's economic growth pertained to the first half of the fiscal year (Q1 and Q2). The growth over the six months to September 20 stood at 7.4%. The figures for spring and summer were 5.4% and 9.2% respectively. The GDP growth, excluding oil sector, amounted to 0.9%. The figure for Q1 stood at -0.9%, while Q2 growth without oil amounted to 2.6%. The oil sector registered the highest increase in GDP in the period with a growth of 61.3%. A 55.4% and 67.2% growth was reached in the first and second quarters respectively. Other sectors posting growth in H1 include the agriculture and services, registering a 4.8% growth each. Both experienced a 4.2% growth in spring and 5% in summer. The two sectors of 'industry' and 'electricity, gas and water' recorded a 4.6% growth each2.9% for Q1 and 6.2% for Q2. The construction sector showed the biggest contraction during the sixmonth period, experiencing a -13% growth, with -25.6% for spring and -2.6% for summer. The mining sector registered a -7.3% growth with the first and second quarters registering -9.4% and -5.4% respectively. The recent economic growth in Iran owes greatly to the removal of sanctions against the country, especially against its oil sector, as part of the nuclear deal Tehran signed with world powers in 2015, which opened up Iran's economy to the world. In exchange for the sanctions removal, Iran agreed to scale back the scope of its nuclear program. According to government data, Iran is now pumping more than 3.9 million bpd of crude oil and condensates, and the output is expected to reach the 4-mbpd mark in April, the level it used to ship before the tightening of sanctions. Oil exports stand at around 2.8 million bpd. Production peaked at 4.2 million bpd for a short spell before the international sanctions were tightened against Tehran in 2011 and 2012. Iran is now the third-largest OPEC producer behind Saudi Arabia and Iraq, which pump around 10 million bpd and 4.5 million bpd respectively. The International Monetary Fund has projected in its latest report that Irans economic growth will stabilize at 4.5% over the mid-term, as the countrys recovery broadens. Real GDP growth is expected to reach 6.6% in 2016/17 and to ease to 3.3% in 2017/18, as oil production remains close to the OPEC target, according to the report.

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Iran's GDP Growth at 7.2% - Financial Tribune

Iranian Rock Artist Defies Threats, Performs in Israeli Peace Concert – Voice of America

WASHINGTON

Fresh from an unprecedented performance in Israel, exiled Iranian rock musician Shahin Najafi says he will not allow his Iranian detractors' death threats to scare him away from collaborating with Israeli artists in the name of peace.

Najafi, 36, sang alongside Israeli rock star Aviv Geffen at a concert in Tel Aviv on Thursday the first performance by an Iranian artist at an Israeli rock concert.

Iran and Israel have endured decades of hostility, with Iranian leaders threatening to destroy the Jewish state and Israeli leaders refusing to rule out using force against an Iranian nuclear program they see as designed to make nuclear weapons.

Threatened with imprisonment

Najafi, born in the northern Iranian province of Gilan, fled Iran in 2004 under threat of imprisonment by Iranian authorities for creating songs deemed offensive to Islam. After Najafi settled in Germany, an Iranian cleric labeled him an apostate and an Iranian Islamist website offered a $100,000 bounty to anyone who would kill him.

Undeterred by Iranian threats, Najafi met with Geffen in Milan late last year and accepted an invitation to perform in Tel Aviv and reach out to Israelis through his art.

Exiled Iranian rock musician Shahin Najafi, right, sang alongside Israeli rock star Aviv Geffen, left, at a concert in Tel Aviv -- the first performance by an Iranian artist at an Israeli rock concert -- on March 2, 2017.

Show of bravery

In an interview with VOA Persian on Friday by telephone from Tel Aviv, Najafi said he might face more death threats for appearing in Israel, but added, "I'm willing to die for peace."

Najafi also praised Geffen for enabling his visit and said he would love to partner with the Israeli again to promote the cause of world peace.

At Thursday's concert, Najafi read a message he addressed to U.S. President Donald Trump, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and "all politicians," expressing opposition to "walls" anywhere in the world and urging national leaders to "stop dividing people before it's too late."

Trump has pledged to build a wall on the U.S. border with Mexico to stop the entry of undocumented migrants, some of whom he says bring drugs and crime. Netanyahu has fortified Israel's boundaries with walls and fences to block infiltrations of African migrants through Egypt and to keep out Palestinian and other anti-Israel militants. Netanyahu and Trump also have pledged to boost cooperation in preventing Iran from developing nuclear weapons something Tehran denies seeking.

Exiled Iranian rock musician Shahin Najafi, right, sang alongside Israeli rock star Aviv Geffen, left, at a concert in Tel Aviv -- the first performance by an Iranian artist at an Israeli rock concert -- on March 2, 2017.

Neither the Israeli nor the Iranian government has commented on Najafi's Tel Aviv show.

'Wrong information'

In his interview, Najafi accused Tehran of feeding Iranians like himself "wrong information" about Israelis. "For those of us born after Iran's [1979 Islamic] Revolution, we were brainwashed with propaganda," he said. "Here in Israel, I got such a good vibe from the crowd that, for a moment, I thought I was back in Iran."

Najafi also criticized the boycotting of Israel by Western pop stars angry with its treatment of the Palestinians. "Unlike [former Pink Floyd band member] Roger Waters, I'm not going to stay in the U.S. and boycott the people I come to Israel and sing for the people to make a statement in the heart of the place where I see a problem."

Many of the Iranian singer-songwriter's Iranian fans welcomed his gesture with supportive messages on his Facebook page. But there was some social media criticism, too, including from an Iranian woman who posted a message on an Iranian communist website and shared it on Facebook. Asal Akhavan accused Najafi and Geffen of lying about supporting peace between Israel and the Palestinians and said the joint concert's real intention was to oppose the Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions (BDS) movement against Israel.

WATCH: Israeli Rocker Geffen Discusses Meeting, Collaborating With Iran's Najafi

'Break this iron wall'

In a separate interview with VOA Persian via Skype on Friday, Geffen, 43, expressed admiration for Najafi as "brave" for coming to Israel to perform and speak out against Trump and Netanyahu.

Geffen is a longtime left-wing critic of the Israeli prime minister and more recently of Trump. "I'm trying to break this iron wall between Iran and Israel, because Netanyahu just can't do it," he said. "I want to make it clear that we [Iranians and Israelis] can talk and want to live side by side."

The Israeli singer-songwriter said the smiling faces and sustained applause by the 7,000 concertgoers showed that he and Najafi had succeeded in changing attitudes.

More performances

Geffen said he planned to invite Najafi to participate in some of his overseas shows and would like to get other artists to join them on tour in New York or London. "For me [this week's concert] is only the start," he said. "I'm willing to go with Shahin all over the world to spread the message that we can achieve a real peace between the nations."

Behrooz Samadbeygi of VOA's Persian service contributed to this report.

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Iranian Rock Artist Defies Threats, Performs in Israeli Peace Concert - Voice of America