Archive for February, 2017

Exiting the European Union will cost a fortune – The Economist

THESE are exhilarating times for the 52% of British voters who last summer opted to leave the European Union. After months of rumours that an anti-Brexit counter-revolution was being plotted by the Europhile establishment (who even won a Supreme Court case forbidding the government from triggering Brexit without Parliaments permission), it at last looks as if independence beckons. This week the House of Commons voted to approve the process of withdrawal. The prime minister, Theresa May, will invoke Article 50 of the EU treaty next month, beginning a two-year countdown to freedom.

But the triumphant mood is about to sour, for a reason few people have grasped. The first item on the agenda in Brussels, where divorce terms are to be thrashed out, will be a large demand for cash. To Britons who voted to leave the EU because they were told it would save them 350m ($440m) a week, this will come as a shock. The mooted bill is hugesome in Brussels talk of 60bn ($64bn), enough to host the London Olympics five times overand its calculations open to endless argument. Until now the Brexit debate has focused on grander matters, such as the future of the 600bn-a-year trading relationship between Britain and the EU. Yet a row over the exit payment could derail the talks in their earliest stages.

The tab is eye-watering. Britains liabilities include contributions to the EUs pension scheme, which is generous and entirely unfunded. The biggest item, which Britain will surely challenge, is the countrys share of responsibility for a multi-billion-euro collection of future projects to which the EU has committed itself but not yet allocated a budget. These liabilities, and sundry smaller ones, may be offset a little by Britains share of the EUs assets, mostly property in Brussels and elsewhere around the world. By one analysis (see article), the bill could be as little as 25bn or as much as 73bn.

So there is plenty to haggle over. But the very idea that the charge is something to be negotiated irritates many Eurocrats, who see it as a straightforward account to be settled. The European Commissions negotiators insist that the divorce agreement must be signed off before the wrangling can begin on anything else, such as future trading relations. Britain would prefer to tally up the bill in parallel with talks on other matters, in order to trade more cash for better access.

Garon! This isnt what I ordered

It is in everyones interests to reach an agreement. If talks fail and Britain walks out without paying, the EU will be left with a big hole in its spending plans. Net contributors, chiefly Germany and France, would face higher payments and net recipients would see their benefits cut. For Britain the satisfaction at having fled without paying would evaporate amid rancid relations with the continent, wrecking prospects of a trade deal; a rupture in everything from intelligence-sharing to joint scientific research; and, perhaps, a visit from the bailiffs of the International Court of Justice. Such an outcome would be bad for the EU but it would be even worse for Britain.

That imbalance will become a theme of the Article 50 negotiations. It suggests that the British will have to do most of the compromising. Mrs May must not waste the two-year timetable haggling over a few billion, when trade worth vastly more hangs in the balance. The EU can help by agreeing to discuss the post-Brexit settlement in parallel with the debate about money. Rolling the lot into one would increase the opportunities for trade-offs that benefit both sides.

But there is a danger of hardliners in London and Brussels making compromise impossible. Some in the European Commission are too eager to make a cautionary tale of Britains exit. And they overestimate Mrs Mays ability to sell a hard deal at home. The British public is unprepared for the exit charge, which is not mentioned in the governments white paper on the talks. The pro-Brexit press, still giddy from its unexpected victory last summer, will focus both on the shockingly large total and also on the details (heres one: the average Eurocrats pension is double Britains average household income). It has flattered Mrs May with comparisons to Margaret Thatcher, who wrung a celebrated rebate out of the EU in 1984. A small band of Brexiteer MPs have a Trumpian desire to carry out not just a hard Brexit but an invigoratingly disruptive one. Mrs Mays working majority in Parliament is only 16.

Everyone would be worse off if the Article 50 talks foundered. Yet the breadth of the gap in expectations between the EU and Britain, and the lack of time in which to bridge it, mean that such an act of mutual self-harm is dangerously possible.

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Exiting the European Union will cost a fortune - The Economist

Student conference to address challenges facing European Union – Yale News

The 2017 European Student Conference (ESC 2017), hosted at Yale University Friday-Saturday, Feb. 10-11, will bring together 100 undergraduate and graduate students from universities across the United States and Europe to address some of the major challenges for the European Union. The theme of this years conference is "Reforging the Social Contract in Europe."

The event is hosted by European Horizons is a United States-based, non-partisan think-tank devoted to exploring the meaning of European identity, modernizing and reforming the concept of the social market economy, advancing the cause of European integration, and deepening transatlantic relations.

Participants at ESC 2017 will have the opportunity to craft policy perspectives that shed light on European challenges in addition to entering into a debate with professors, current and former decision-makers from Europe and representatives of European institutions. Participants will also draft a concrete plan of action for implementing the policy visions and strategies that they develop in the workshops.

The conference is structured around three main formats: keynote speeches, panels, and workshops. The first day of the conference will begin with an opening ceremony with keynote speaker David OSullivan, ambassador of the European Union to the United States, before focusing on the first two workshop sessions: each featuring a policy adviser, professor, and moderator. The themes of the workshops include identity, migration, political legitimacy of institutions, productivity, foreign and security policy, and entrepreneurship.

The afternoon will feature an European Horitzons Chapter Information Session after the Opportunities of Brexit panel. Moderator Eileen OConnor, formerly with the U.S. State Department and now vice president of communications at Yale, will lead the discussion with panelists Ambassador Peter Wittig from Germany, Ambassador Grard Araud from France, OSullivan, Professor Robert Shiller of Yale, and Catherine Stihler, a member of the European Parliament.

The second day of the conference will begin the European Public Sphere panel, where moderator Michael Kaczmarek from the European Parliament Research Service (EPRS) will talk with participants Kevin Delaney from Quartz, Martin Sandbu from the Financial Times, Eschel Alpermann from EPRS, and Alexander Goerlach of Harvard. Participants will also have a third workshop to continue their discussions and policy proposals.

See a detailed schedule of the conference.

European Horizons convenes several conferences throughout the year, publishes research and policy papers through its academic journal, The Review of European and Transatlantic Affairs, and maintains chapters across universities in the United States and Europe. For more information, visit http://www.europeanhorizons.org.

ESC 2017 is co-founded by the European Union as a Jean Monnet Activity under the Erasmus+ Programme. Rene Haferkamp of Harvards Center for European Studies is the special adviser for ESC 2017. The event is supported by the European Commission and Erasmus+.

For further information, contact Nicholas Romanoff, president of the European Horizons Chapter at the University of Chicago at nromanoff@uchicago.edu or (646) 385-5823.

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Student conference to address challenges facing European Union - Yale News

Iran fires another missile from launch pad, US official says …

Iran launched another missile Wednesday from the same launch pad east of Tehran where it conducted a previous ballistic missile test last month, an official told Fox News.

The Semnan launch pad was the same as the one where Fox News reported exclusively on Tuesday, satellite photos showed Iran had placed a Safir rocket poised to put a satellite into space before it was taken off the launcher. The reason Iran scrubbed the previous launch is not yet known.

The missile used in Wednesday's launch was a short-range Mersad surface-to-air missile, which impacted 35 miles away, according to a U.S. official.

This latest test comes less than a week after the U.S. placed new sanctions on Iran. There's been a flurry of activity at the Semnan launch pad, located about 140 miles east of Tehran, in recent weeks, officials have told Fox News.

On Jan. 29, Iran launched a new type of medium-range ballistic missile prompting an emergency meeting of the U.N. Security Council on Jan. 31. A day later the White House issued a strongly worded statement from National Security Adviser Mike Flynn putting Iran "on notice." President Trump tweeted a similar statement soon after.

On Sunday, Sen. Dianne Feinstein, D-Calif., called Irans recent ballistic missile launch very dangerous and said the launch should not have happened, and agreed with President Trump that new sanctions on the Islamic Republic were needed.

U.N. Resolution 2231 calls upon Iran not to conduct ballistic missile tests -- but does not forbid the nation from doing so. The resolution went into effect days after the landmark nuclear deal with signed with Western nations including the U.S.

Lucas Tomlinson is the Pentagon and State Department producer for Fox News Channel. You can follow him on Twitter: @LucasFoxNews

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Iran fires another missile from launch pad, US official says ...

Iran Celebrates Its Revolution, and Thanks Some Americans – New York Times


New York Times
Iran Celebrates Its Revolution, and Thanks Some Americans
New York Times
Tensions between the United States and Iran have surged in recent weeks, after Mr. Trump blocked citizens of Iran and six other predominantly Muslim nations from visiting the United States, and he called Iran #1 in terror. His national security ...
Amid tensions with US, Iran warns White House and lauds Americans opposing TrumpWashington Post
What's behind Trump's tough talk on Iran?Aljazeera.com
Hundreds of thousands rally in Iran against Trump, chant 'Death to America': TVReuters
Los Angeles Times -WTAE Pittsburgh
all 279 news articles »

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Iran Celebrates Its Revolution, and Thanks Some Americans - New York Times

How Bannon’s Navy service during the Iran hostage crisis shaped his views – Washington Post

(Alice Li/The Washington Post)

It was just after midnight on March 21, 1980, when a Navy destroyer navigated by Stephen K. Bannon, a junior officer, met with the supercarrier USS Nimitz in the Gulf of Oman. The convoy headed near the Iranian coast, where a secret mission would be launched a month later to rescue 52 U.S. Embassy hostages held in Tehran.

Bannons ship, the USS Paul F. Foster, trailed the Nimitz, which carried helicopters that would try to retrieve the hostages. But before the mission launched, Bannons ship was ordered to sail to Pearl Harbor, and he learned while at sea the rescue had failed. A U.S. helicopter crashed into another aircraft in the Iranian desert, killing eight servicemen and dooming the plan to liberate the hostages.

I have the perfect word for how the crew felt upon learning the mission failed, said Andrew Green, one of Bannons shipmates. Defeated. We felt defeated.

As Bannon has told it, the failed hostage rescue is one of the defining moments of his life, providing a searing example of failed military and presidential leadership one that he carries with him as he serves as President Trumps chief strategist. He has said he wasnt interested in politics until he concluded then-President Jimmy Carter had undercut the Navy and blown the rescue mission.

Bannon, a former Goldman Sachs investment banker best known for his time as chairman of the conservative website Breitbart, has become one of the most powerful figures in Washington as chief strategist for Trump. Moreover, in an unusual move for a political operative, Bannon secured a permanent seat on the National Security Council, giving him a voice in critical decisions on defense and foreign policy.

Bannon served seven years in the Navy, with two deployments at sea and then three years as an underling in a Pentagon office dealing with budget and planning. White House press secretary Sean Spicer cited Bannons naval service as justification for giving him a seat on the National Security Council, saying during a Jan.29 appearance on ABCs This Week that such service gave him a tremendous understanding of the world and the geopolitical landscape that we have now.

A review by The Washington Post of Bannons naval career, based on interviews with more than 25 shipmates and an examination of deck logs stored at the National Archives, found that his service was steady but unremarkable. Bannons naval service is the least-known part of his career, and many details have not been previously reported. The records show that his deployments never involved warfare, and the closest he came to conflict may have been his brief experience at the edge of the hostage rescue fiasco.

Still, the experience shaped his thinking. He saw the military buildup under President Ronald Reagan, and the hostage-taking in Tehran continues to inform his view about that region of the world, as well as the role of U.S. military power and its commander in chief.

In recent years, Bannon has spoken in apocalyptic terms about Islam. In 2007, he outlined a movie in which radical Muslims take over the United States and turn it into the Islamic States of America. In 2014, he delivered a talk in which he said, Were now, I believe, at the beginning stages of a global war against Islamic fascism.

Bannon declined to be interviewed.

As a White House official, Bannon played a key role in writing the executive order on immigration that targeted seven countries, including Iran. He has urged that the Obama administrations nuclear deal with Iran be abandoned. Bannons seat on the National Security Council will continue to give him extraordinary power to influence the administrations policies.

Grueling duty, but no combat

Bannon, who grew up in a Democratic family in Richmond, signed up for the Naval Reserve in 1976, after graduating from Virginia Tech, and then arrived at 24years old at the Navys training center in Rhode Island in 1977. The following year, he set sail aboard the Foster, on which he would travel mostly in the Pacific and Indian oceans from 1978 to 1980, stopping at ports in countries such as the Philippines and Singapore. It was an anti-submarine destroyer whose mission was to trail aircraft carriers and keep them safe.

He was an ensign and then a lieutenant junior grade, assigned to a windowless, two-bed stateroom with desks and a wardrobe area, a comfortable accommodation compared with the warren of bunks where most sailors slept.

His first job gave him responsibility for engineering, including air conditioning, hydraulics and electronics. It was all the inelegant work of the ship, said Edward Sonny Masso, a retired rear admiral who served with Bannon. Not just anybody succeeds in that job.

Bannon later became a navigator, guiding the ship at times with a sextant when the electronic system lost contact with satellites and writing reports.

Not once during Bannons deployments at sea was the ship involved in combat, but it was grueling duty, full of tedium and drills, according to shipmates and logs. At times, the Foster would play cat-and-mouse games with Soviet vessels, trailing and testing one another, shipmates said.

Scott Brubaker, an enlisted sailor who served with Bannon, said that experience will change you forever. ... You pull into Hong Kong and go to Victoria Peak. You go to Singapore. There are the smells, sometimes the stench, sometimes the abject poverty. ... We learned we had a very big world, and one that certainly had its inherent risks.

Bannon is remembered by many of his shipmates as a quiet, proficient and studious officer.

William Keating, who was Bannons roommate for two years, called him a good guy who did his job, and he had no recollection of political discussion. The portrayal of Bannon today as a far-right nationalist is not the individual that I knew, Keating said.

On one occasion, Keating recalled, Bannon proudly brought his father on board and gave up his bed so his father could sleep in the stateroom. I remember the two of them together, Keating said. They had a really good father-son relationship.

Some shipmates had more critical recollections of Bannon.

He wasnt the best engineer we had, but he wasnt bad. He was basically an above-average officer, said Robin Mickle, a retired Navy captain.

Mickle said he did not get along personally with Bannon and found him obnoxious at times.

His only problem was that he wasnt in it for the long run. He never really wanted to stay. He told us it would look good on his rsum if he went into politics. The politics part didnt impress any of us.

Bannon told Bloomberg Business Week in 2015 that I wasnt political until I got into the service and saw how badly Jimmy Carter f---ed things up. I became a Reagan admirer.

Greg Garrison, who served as an engineer on the Foster, said: What I remember was he was kind of uppity; he didnt get along with enlisted men. He just kind of stuck his nose up at us.

Bannon is remembered as much for his skill at sports as for his work on the ships deck. When the Foster docked at ports in different parts of the world, the ships basketball team often lined up games against local competition. Bannons nickname was Coast, short for coast-to-coast, because on the basketball court hed never pass the ball, Mickle said. Bannon also excelled at baseball, although shipmates ribbed him for being called out three times in one inning, recalled David Ziemba, who spoke warmly about his former roommate.

Bannon, meanwhile, scoured newspapers such as the Wall Street Journal for what turned out to be a lucrative sideline. He put money into commodities such as gold and silver, advising shipmates, Masso said, and presaging his career as an investment banker.

He was like our investment sensei, Masso said, referring to a teaching role.

A little bit of a hell-raiser

Bannons patrols became more tense after Iranians in 1979 took control of the U.S. Embassy in Tehran and seized hostages, and the streets filled with protesters chanting slogans such as Death to America. The Cold War still dominated military thinking, but military planners also put more emphasis on anti-terrorism measures.

The presidential campaign in the United States focused much attention on Irans seizure of U.S. Embassy officials. Carter, a Democrat, was blasted by Republicans for allowing the hostage saga to have taken place. A nightly news program was called America Held Hostage, and Reagan, a Republican, vowed to strengthen the countrys military.

Back on the Foster, crew members said they were aware of the growing tensions, and they were eager to be part of whatever action might come.

In late November 1979, however, the Fosters sonar dome a crucial piece of equipment used for navigation and detection was damaged. Bannon, in his role as navigator, wrote in the deck log: Slow to 5 Kts to reduce damage to Sonar Dome. The logs do not indicate what caused the damage, and no blame was assessed.

Traveling at about one-third of its normal speed amid stormy seas during which the Foster was hit with 20-foot-high waves the vessel made a detour to Guam for repairs.

Then, after nearly two months on Guam and weeks more of travel, Bannons ship linked up on March21, 1980, with the USS Nimitz. Three hours after the rendezvous, Bannon assumed the deck to help navigate, according to the logs of his ship.

The Nimitz, one of the worlds largest supercarriers, already was involved in preparation for the hostage rescue mission. Ziemba, the Bannon roommate, noticed helicopters were stored on the Nimitz that he later realized were to be used in the rescue mission.

Bannons ship operated from an area called GONZO station, according to deck logs that use the Navys acronym for Gulf of Oman Naval Zone of Operations. Bannons ship trailed the Nimitz around the Gulf, part of which borders southern Iran. Then the Foster was ordered to set sail to Pearl Harbor.

What happened next is unclear because all of the deck logs for April1980 are missing from the National Archives. (Officials said that records for that month were not among the documents it originally received.) It was on April24 that the rescue mission was launched and resulted in the eight deaths in the desert.

Larry Benson, an enlisted sailor who remembered Bannon as a little bit of a hell-raiser, said he was told later that the Foster would have played a further role in the rescue mission if it had been completed. This was classified. A lot of people didnt know we were part of the process, Benson said. But other sailors said they had no knowledge about that.

The deck logs resume on May1, and they show that Bannon navigated as the Foster sailed from Pearl Harbor to San Diego.

Some of Bannons shipmates recalled that the crew was given a ribbon for its modest role. But Bannon and many other crew members were livid at Carter for the botched rescue.

It shattered his confidence in President Carter, Masso said. It made him all the more in the tank for Reagan.

In October 1980, with the Foster in port at Long Beach, Bannon went to Massos home to watch a debate between Carter and Reagan. He watched that debate like a prize fight, Masso said.

Three months later, after Reagan won the election, Bannon was working for the new president, serving as an assistant in the office of the Chief of Naval Operations at the Pentagon. He watched with satisfaction as Reagan increased the military budget and strengthened the Navy, with most of the focus on combating the Soviet Union. He served for three years and simultaneously studied national security and earned a masters degree at Georgetown University.

Peter Harris, who served with Bannon at the Pentagon and also was in the Georgetown program, recalled that Bannon persuaded him to join the Toastmasters program, which teaches public speaking skills. We did a lot of briefings, and we wanted to polish our public speaking skills, Harris said.

Harris said Bannon was an excellent officer and described their Pentagon duties as being down the food chain quite a bit ... but [we] were exposed to a lot. We were all very involved in the Navy budget, working with the senior admirals. It was a good time to understand how the Navy formulates its policies and looks at the force structure 20years out.

Patrick McKim, who also served with Bannon at the Pentagon and has remained a close friend and sometimes writes for Breitbart, said that the period is crucial to understanding Bannons development. When Bannon arrived at the dawn of the Reagan era, McKim said, the military was still trying to emerge from the post-Vietnam era and the failed hostage rescue mission.

People made you ashamed to be an officer, McKim said in an interview arranged by a Bannon associate. Reagans arrival and the military buildup changed that view, and Bannon idolized the new president. Two years before Bannon left the military in 1983 and headed to Harvard Business School, he told McKim that he had a vision of his future.

He mentioned that hed go to Harvard and come back and be secretary of defense, McKim recalled.

Bannon did not get the top job at the Pentagon. But 34years after revealing that ambition, Bannons Navy career can be seen in a different light: It launched him on a path to Trumps side, which may prove to be an even more powerful position.

Alice Crites contributed to this report.

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How Bannon's Navy service during the Iran hostage crisis shaped his views - Washington Post