Archive for February, 2017

What the Liberal-One Nation preference deal could mean at the ballot box – ABC Online

Posted February 12, 2017 19:51:12

The success of the Liberal Party's preference deal with One Nation in WA could be determined by how many support staff are available to hand out how-to-vote cards on the day, according to a political analyst.

"In order to know what you're supposed to do with your preferences, what you need to do is go to someone handing out a how-to-vote card and find the order for this," said Emeritus Professor David Black.

"In the Legislative Council it's completely different. As soon as you vote any party ticket, the preferences will flow in the pre-arranged order, which that party has lodged."

Professor Black said it was likely the Liberal Party, with its larger base of volunteers, would need to help hand out One Nation how-to-vote cards on election day.

"In a difficult election for the Liberal Party, if they can get some kind of deal which works and an adequate number of people available to hand out how-to-vote cards, then it could be a crucial fact in an election which could be very, very tight," he said.

"The impact of preference distribution in the Lower House will be crucially affected by the extent by which the parties can provide the staff at the polling booths to make this happen."

Professor Black said it appeared One Nation could receive a significant primary vote in WA's March election.

"We know that in the previous election when this happened their preferences went against sitting members in the Liberal Party, which suffered," he said.

"In a very difficult election for the Liberal Party this is one obvious way [the Liberals] can see of trying to boost their chances by having a party that's likely to get a pretty strong primary vote more likely to give preferences towards the Liberal Party than against."

"The Labor Party, to win the election, has to probably win 11 to 12 seats or more. If they [the Liberals] can save two, three or four seats, that can make all the difference."

Professor Black described the National party as an election wildcard.

"In the end, what their votes do, how well they do, what happens in places like the Pilbara because of the mining tax and so on, which party benefits is very much up in the air and that just makes it an even more complicated election than we'd otherwise have," he said.

"In order for the Liberals to lose, the Labor Party has to have absolutely everything going right."

Professor Black said the Labor Party appeared to be a in a slightly stronger position, but at the same time they needed to win a lot of seats.

"It's an election that the Liberals, according to the polls, are facing a very, very real prospect of losing," he said.

"But they are confronted by this situation, where for a variety of reasons, One Nation has re-emerged from the clouds and all the opinion polls suggest they're going to get a very substantial portion of the vote."

Professor Black said there could also be some retaliation from the WA Nationals, who could direct their preferences elsewhere.

Topics: elections, liberals, one-nation, polls, wa

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What the Liberal-One Nation preference deal could mean at the ballot box - ABC Online

Voters in TO split between PCs and Liberals: Poll – Toronto Sun


Toronto Sun
Voters in TO split between PCs and Liberals: Poll
Toronto Sun
Forum Research president Lorne Bozinoff said the Conservatives in Toronto should really hope for better results against the Liberals than a statistical tie, given Kathleen Wynne's historically low approval, and how many provincial seats are at stake ...

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Voters in TO split between PCs and Liberals: Poll - Toronto Sun

WA Liberals confirm deal with One Nation – 9news.com.au

The WA Liberals will preference One Nation ahead of the Nationals in some of the upper house seats at the forthcoming March state election.

The deal is in return for One Nation to preference the party above Labor in the lower house.

Premier Colin Barnett said the deal was a practical, pragmatic decision, and would benefit his government in winning a third term.

"What we're out to do is retain government and there's no doubt, in the Legislative Assembly, in the lower house, One Nation preferences will flow to the Liberal Party," he told reporters on Sunday.

"That will give us a buffer to some of our seats under challenge, so it's to our benefit to win government and beat the Labor party."

However, earlier in February Mr Barnett cautioned people against voting for One Nation, saying it would be hard to govern if the upper house was controlled by a minor party.

Recent polling showed One Nation would be the third most popular party with 13 per cent of the primary vote.

A new Greens poll found 33 per cent of Liberal voters would be less likely to vote for them if they made a deal with One Nation.

The Nationals WA leader Brendon Grylls said his party had sought a direct preference deal with the Liberals, and Mr Barnett had signified it would happen.

"While some political parties believe they own or influence preferences - we believe this shows great disrespect to voters," he said in a statement on Sunday.

"The people of Western Australia will always vote with their hearts and minds, and won't be told how to vote by a piece of paper resulting from a backroom deal."

Mr Grylls said the Nationals had strong support for their policies across the state, and that elections were not won on preferences, but on primary votes.

Federal Labor leader Bill Shorten labelled the deal as a desperate move by a party that had publicly denounced One Nation in the past, and ruled out Labor giving One Nation preferences.

"I think what's turning people off the mainstream parties is when the people of Australia think Turnbull or I are just interested in ripping each other down and not focusing on them," he said.

WA Labor leader Mark McGowan said he was disappointed with the Liberal party and labelled One Nation hypocrites.

"The Liberal party and One Nation have now done a desperate, sneaky, political deal to try and save Mr Barnett's hide," he said.

"One Nation has done a deal with the devil."

Mr McGowan said One Nation were siding with a party that supported the sale of Western Power and foreign jobs, opposite to their own political direction.

Mr Barnett admitted it would be a complex and unusual election.

"There are some unpredictable results to come," he said.

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WA Liberals confirm deal with One Nation - 9news.com.au

Tillis to continue push for bipartisan immigration reform – Charlotte Observer


Charlotte Observer
Tillis to continue push for bipartisan immigration reform
Charlotte Observer
Thom Tillis said Saturday that he will continue to push for bipartisan reform to fix what he calls America's broken immigration system. You will never satisfy the far extremes on the left and the right, Tillis, R-N.C., told Fox News. His aim, he said ...

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Tillis to continue push for bipartisan immigration reform - Charlotte Observer

After ICE arrests, fear spreads among undocumented immigrants – CNN

Some don't answer knocks on their doors. They're taping bedsheets over windows and staying off social media. Nervous parents and their children constantly exchange text messages and phone calls.

From New York to Los Angeles, a series of immigration arrests this week have unleashed waves of fear and uncertainty across immigrant communities.

"There are people that I work with who essentially want to go dark," said Cesar Vargas, one of the first immigrants without legal status in New York state to be sworn in as a lawyer.

"They don't want to be public in any way whatsoever. They spend less time on the street. They go to work and go straight back home. They don't go on Facebook. They put curfews on themselves."

The arrests come amid court battles over Trump's proposed ban on immigrants from seven majority-Muslim nations. The president has also vowed to deport some 3 million undocumented immigrants who have criminal records and to build a wall across the porous US-Mexico border.

"There are teachers who told me they had students missing from school out of fear," said Greg Casar, a city council member in Austin, Texas.

"I was with a constituent, a single mother with kids -- good, hardworking everyday folks -- and she had duct-taped sheets up and down her windows. ICE had come and knocked on her door earlier in the day."

Casar, the son of Mexican immigrants, spoke on the phone Saturday from a meeting of about 100 teachers who gathered to discuss how to talk to children about ICE actions and assure them they're safe at school.

"Kids ... are clearly traumatized by this," he said. "Young people I've spoken to live in fear that their government is coming for them or coming for their parents. Where do you go?"

One ICE operation in the Los Angeles area this week targeted criminals and fugitives. The agency said the majority of those arrested had criminal histories.

ICE said Friday that about 160 foreign nationals were arrested during the week.

Of those, 150 had criminal histories, and of the remaining arrests, five had final orders of removal or were previously deported.

ICE said 95% of those arrested were male. By Saturday, 37 had been deported to Mexico, a Homeland Security official told CNN.

Supporters of the sweeps say they are surprised that actions enforcing US immigration laws are making the news.

"President Trump campaigned on the issue of enforcing the nation's laws, and that's exactly what is happening here," said Dave Ray, a spokesman for the Federation for American Immigration Reform, a non-profit that fights for reduced immigration and tighter borders.

John Torres, a retired deputy director of ICE and longtime immigration agent, said the last time such a spike in enforcement occurred was during the Bush administration, from 2006 to 2008.

"What's different here is that you have a more robust agency than you had 10 years ago," Torres said. "And the expanded scope of priorities now, coupled with the fact that you have far more jurisdictions that are not cooperating with ICE, is forcing ICE agents to make those arrests out in the community."

While the Obama administration had clear guidance prioritizing deportation of high-level criminals, an executive order signed by Trump in his first week set up enforcement priorities that could include virtually any undocumented immigrant living in the United States.

Many of the largest cities in the country have vowed not to cooperate with federal law enforcement on immigration matters. They are known as "sanctuary" cities, a broad term applied to jurisdictions that have policies limiting cooperation with or involvement in federal immigration enforcement actions.

Cities, counties and some states have a range of laws and informal policies that qualify as "sanctuary" positions.

In New York's Staten Island, Vargas has been busy since Trump's inauguration advising members of a growing immigrant community.

Vargas, a Mexican-born lawyer and immigrant activist, has also been busy checking up on his mother, who is also undocumented. And she checks on him.

"My mom tells me, 'Don't travel here, don't travel there,'" said Vargas, who has benefited from federal Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals, or DACA.

"I'm still undocumented. She's undocumented. I have DACA but she doesn't. I tell her not to open the door for anyone. Know your rights and give me a call right away."

Put in place by the Obama administration, the DACA program has helped roughly 750,000 young people -- known as DREAMers -- emerge from the shadows and obtain valid driver's licenses, enroll in college and legally secure jobs.

Trump has vowed to repeal the program.

"We're in major suspense with the Trump administration," said Vargas, who was 5 he crossed the border from Tijuana to San Diego.

"What is he going to do with DACA? The program can be taken away anytime at the discretion of Immigration. They can say, even if he has DACA, we're going to pick him up because he is undocumented."

Vargas has been working with undocumented veterans who joined the US military with hopes of getting US citizenship.

Some veterans -- green card holders who served in Iraq and Afghanistan -- did not go through the entire process of becoming citizens. Many returned to the United States with Post Traumatic Stress Syndrome. Some got hooked on illegal drugs and ended up with felony drug convictions.

They now face deportation.

"Yes, these people have committed crimes, but these are people who the government was supposed to take care of," Vargas said. "If Donald Trump is so worried about veterans, these are people he should be worried about."

In Brooklyn, New York, an undocumented immigrant named Antonio -- who asked that his full name not be used -- said it has been an emotional week for his partner and their two children, ages 3 and 8. His partner cries at the many news reports of separated immigrant families.

"People are not leaving the house to get a cup of coffee, to have dinner or take their children to the library," said Antonio, who came to the United States from Mexico 17 years ago.

"You don't know when the next roundup will be. You go to work. You come back home."

He says he is cautious on the street.

"I'm looking around all the time," he said. "It's not only (ICE) but the police as well. What if they stop you and ask you questions?"

A construction worker, Antonio said he has paid taxes for years. He was part of a small army of unauthorized immigrants who toiled in the reconstruction efforts in Queens and Staten Island after Superstorm Sandy in 2012.

"We were among the first to respond during that catastrophe," he said.

"We helped rebuild homes and the owners still seek us out for work. But some people feel we're taking away (jobs). We take the jobs they don't want. So it's, 'Oh, you helped me rebuild my house but now I don't need you and you should go back to Mexico.'"

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After ICE arrests, fear spreads among undocumented immigrants - CNN