If Hillary Clinton decides not to run in 2016, how bad would it be for Democrats?
Emily Bell, who runs the Tow Center for Digital Journalism at Columbia University, tweeted this simple but provocative question a few days ago: What are the odds on Hillary not running?
I replied that it was about 10percent. Others, such as Politicos Ben White, said it was more like 0.1 percent. The question, and the back-and-forth over it, got me thinking about what would happen in the unlikely event that Hillary Rodham Clinton decided not to run. After all, she has only hinted at her interest publicly and has yet to take the steps leadership PAC, etc. that would indicate clear interest. Virtually everything we know about Clintons plans come from staff movements and quotes to reporters from those in the know who demand anonymity to share their knowledge.
I wrote about this possibility about a year ago and concluded that if Clinton stayed out, the result would be a crowded field with Vice President Biden as a nominal front-runner. Republicans chances of winning the White House also would immediately improve.
Theres a different dynamic at work now, particularly if Clinton waits a few more months to make clear exactly what she is going to do in 2016. We are rapidly approaching the point of no return for her and Democrats. That is, if she were suddenly to decide not to run in, say, two months, there would be an overwhelming sense of doom within the party. The shock would reverberate for weeks, or maybe much longer, making it hard for anyone looking to fill the void she left behind.
Now, that doom would eventually be followed by a wild scramble among the Bidens, Martin OMalleys and, yes, even Elizabeth Warrens of the party for the donors, activists and staffers who had been assumed to be part of the Clinton machine. But doing things in a hurry with what would be regarded widely as Democrats B or even C team would be deeply problematic.
Simply put, for Clinton to pass on the race and especially if she waits until the summer to make her decision public would be absolutely disastrous for her partys chances of holding on to the White House in 2016. She and her budding team have to know that, and its hard for me to imagine that she would have let things go this far there is an entire campaign and outside Clinton world in place for her if she had any serious or lingering doubts about whether she was going to make the race.
And, as has been true since Day One, she is a heavy favorite to become the Democratic nominee. One data point to back that up: In a new Des Moines Register-Bloomberg poll, Clinton stood at 56percent in a hypothetical Iowa caucus matchup, with 16percent for Warren, the Massachusetts senator, and 9percent for Biden.
Here, weve ranked Clinton and the six other people who either will or could conceivably run for president against her.
7. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.). Sanders appears to be serious about running, which is why hes on this list. Although he will probably get real support from more liberal quarters of the party, his appeal is limited. Still, hell mix it up, and in an interview with The Washington Post this week, he questioned whether Clinton would be bold enough as president.
6. Former Virginia senator Jim Webb. As CNNs Dan Merica pointed out recently, Webb is running his campaign he has formed an exploratory committee largely via Twitter. Given that Webb has fewer than 5,000 Twitter followers, this may not be the most sound political strategy.
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If Hillary Clinton decides not to run in 2016, how bad would it be for Democrats?