Archive for October, 2014

Can the California GOP craft a winning campaign strategy?

As California's Republican Party contemplates its way out of the political wilderness, most of the public debate has focused on questions of ideology: Can social conservatives stomach moderation on issues such as abortion or gay marriage in exchange for election victories?

That's a serious question with lasting implications for the party's identity, but there's another discussion underway as well: Is the GOP's best strategy to pursue change from the top down securing a statewide office or two to reestablish a beachhead in Sacramento or from the ground up, doing the painstaking work of electing Republicans to local offices in the hopes that those politicians can amass the experience and credibility to someday recapture offices once held by the likes of Ronald Reagan, Earl Warren and Richard Nixon?

Both approaches are in play during this election cycle. Pressing for change from the top, businessman Neel Kashkari is challenging one of the lions of California politics, Gov. Jerry Brown, the longest-serving governor in the state's history and the only one to hold the office in two separate stretches (and in two different centuries). Kashkari had to fight his way past a far more conservative opponent, and he argues that this election marks an opportunity for the party to ditch some of the habits that have alienated so many California voters. He's pro-choice, supports same-sex marriage and has doubts about the war on drugs and the harsh sentences it has imposed, particularly on minority offenders.

Despite those unconventional positions for a Republican, a recent Field poll showed that 71% of conservatives supported Kashkari, at least against Brown. "We're a case study for this approach," the candidate told me last week as he hustled between campaign stops.

But if Kashkari's quest to move his party depends on his winning in November, it's probably doomed. The same poll that showed him performing well with conservatives had him trailing Brown by more than 20 points among those who consider themselves "middle of the road." And among liberals, the poll had him losing by a laughable 91% to 1%.

If Kashkari wins, he'll be in a position to argue that he's charted a new way. If he loses, however, that's a harder sell. Meanwhile, Ashley Swearengin, the Fresno mayor who's running for controller, could be a breakout candidate for the party, as could Pete Peterson in the campaign for secretary of state. But they too are trailing in the polls and facing the formidable head wind of the Democrats' registration advantage.

Parke Skelton, the consultant for Democrat Betty Yee in the controller's race, points out that the partisan breakdown of June primary voters in that contest was 43% Democratic to 32% Republican. In the general election, it's likely to notch up a few points in Democrats' favor, meaning that roughly 45% of the electorate will be Democratic, compared with just 32% Republican.

Aaron McLear, senior advisor to the Kashkari campaign, pointed out to me last week that, for a Republican to win statewide, he or she needs to carry 95% of Republican voters, two-thirds of independents and about one-third of Democrats. That is, as he said, "tough, really tough."

So, if a breakthrough is possible but very difficult, what about the more patient work of local campaigns? Ruben Barrales is president of a group called Grow Elect, which is trying to do just that. The organization has been working since 2011 to promote the candidacies of Latino Republicans for city councils, county boards of supervisors and special districts. In that time, the group says it has helped elect 60 candidates.

Barrales agrees that it's important for Republicans to set a more welcoming tone on social issues especially immigration and credits Kashkari with helping to lead the way. But he also recognizes the difficulties confronting any Republican candidate for a statewide office, and he says long-term success can come only through grass-roots organizing and winning races further down the ticket.

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Can the California GOP craft a winning campaign strategy?

GOP fights for 2014 early vote

Republican Joni Ernst (left) is facing off against Democrat Bruce Braley (right) for the U.S. Senate race in Iowa, where early voting is a key part of both parties' strategy.

STORY HIGHLIGHTS

Washington (CNN) -- Forget about pushing voters to the polls in the final 72 hours. Republican war rooms are now just as focused on turning voters into votes weeks before Election Day.

In their multi-front battle to win back the Senate and hold on to governor mansions, Republican operatives don't want their supporters to wait until Nov. 4, and they're investing real money, technology and manpower to try to match Democrats, on a playing field the left has dominated in recent contests.

Many credit an early voting advantage by Democrats for playing a key role in the 2012 presidential elections. The practice has upended the traditional electoral calendar and Republicans have revamped their approach, at a time when 33 states and the District of Columbia now offer some form of early voting.

In key battleground states like Georgia, where early voting begins Monday, Republican operations are pouring more resources than ever into get-out-the-vote efforts ahead of Election Day.

In Iowa, where residents have been voting for the last two weeks, Republicans are already starting to close the gap with Democrats after investing more than $1 million to mobilize early voters. That's a stark contrast to past election cycles when Republicans "focused barely any resources on it," Iowa Republican Party spokesman Jeff Patch said.

"This midterm election cycle in particular has been the most early vote centered than any other election in previous history," Patch said. "I think we're going to make a huge dent."

In just the last week, Republicans have requested absentee ballots at a faster rate than Democrats -- more than doubling their count compared to just a 40% increase for Democrats in the last 10 days, according to numbers provided by the Iowa Secretary of State's office. Registered Republicans have also mailed in their early ballots at a faster pace than Democrats.

And while both parties have gotten their voters to submit more ballots than in 2010 so far, early Republican votes have more than doubled from 2010 while Democrats have only posted a 36% bump.

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GOP fights for 2014 early vote

Florida Governor's Race: Familiar Faces, Big Money, Brutal Ads

Democrat Charlie Crist, a former Republican governor of Florida (left), and Rick Scott, the current Republican governor of Florida, listen to the moderators during a gubernatorial debate on Friday. The two are facing off in a tight race that's fueling a barrage of negative campaign ads. Lynne Sladky/AP hide caption

Democrat Charlie Crist, a former Republican governor of Florida (left), and Rick Scott, the current Republican governor of Florida, listen to the moderators during a gubernatorial debate on Friday. The two are facing off in a tight race that's fueling a barrage of negative campaign ads.

Florida is home to the most expensive race in the country this midterm election one of the nation's closest and nastiest gubernatorial contests.

incumbent Republican governor Rick Scott is facing former Florida governor Charlie Crist, a Democrat. Both candidates are well-known, both are prolific fundraisers and outside groups are pouring millions of dollars into the race. It's all combined to make it one of the nation's closest and nastiest gubernatorial races.

On paper, Scott has a lot going for him. He's an incumbent, with nearly unlimited money, in a state that's finally in economic recovery. But after four years of chronically low approval ratings, his bid for re-election is turning out to be anything but easy.

Florida is a state almost evenly divided between Republicans and Democrats. Republicans control the legislature and all the top state offices, but in the last two Presidential elections, Barack Obama mobilized Democrats and carried the state.

And Crist, the Democratic candidate for governor, is hoping to replicate that in this election.

At a campaign stop in a Miami suburb recently, Crist met with Marcela Parra, a college student upset about recent cuts in Florida's "Bright Futures" scholarship program.

"Four years ago, you would have qualified for a Bright Futures scholarship, back when I was governor, essentially," he says, as she agrees. "Now with Rick Scott and a change in policy, you don't qualify anymore."

Charlie Crist is the challenger in the race, but to Floridians, he's a familiar face. He was a Republican when he served as governor. But a lot has changed since then. He ran unsuccessfully for the Senate, first as a Republican, and then as an independent. Now, Crist is a Democrat, running for a seat he left behind just four years ago.

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Florida Governor's Race: Familiar Faces, Big Money, Brutal Ads

Liberal Group Blames Republicans for Ebola in New ad

A liberal political group just played the Ebola card in the midterm elections.

A new ad by the Agenda Project Action Fund, a liberal outside group, opens with a line uttered by Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnellWashington, actually, can cut spendingand ends with the statement, Republican cuts kill.

(PHOTOS: See How A Photographer Is Covering Ebolas Deadly Spread)

The rest of the one-minute ad is peppered with clips of Republicans asking for cuts, interspersed with top officials from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the National Institutes of Health saying the Ebola outbreak in West Africa could have been better handled if their agencies had more funding. NIH head Francis Collins said in an interview published Sunday that an Ebola vaccine might have been developed by now if it were not for a 10-year slide in research support.

Erica Payne, the producer of the ad and president of the Agenda Project Action Fund, blamed the Ebola crisis wholly on the Republican Party.

I think any Republican who attempts to chalk this ad up to politics is a Republican who is too afraid to examine the results of his of her actions and the very real consequences that they have, she said. They have developed a governing philosophy that is so fanatically anti-investment that they literally have at their doorstop death. There is no exaggeration in this.

I think that the blame for the situation that were in now with the Ebola crisis is 100% the fault of Republicans and their fanatical anti-government philosophy, she added. They did this.

(PHOTOS: Inside the Ebola Crisis: The Images That Moved Them Most)

Conservatives quickly bashed the ad. Erick Erickson, the editor of the conservative website RedState, wrote that the ad reeks of desperation.

Its a defensive ad that reeks of desperation, he wrote. At a time when more and more Americans, including millennials, are concluding government just doesnt work, it probably wont be effective.

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Liberal Group Blames Republicans for Ebola in New ad

Judges Hit the Stump as Outside Money Pours Into Judicial Races

A national Republican group is spending heavily on state judicial elections, prompting incumbent judges targeted by the money to hit the stump as they fight to hold on to their seats.

The Republican State Leadership Committee, which traditionally has focused on gubernatorial and legislative races, is expanding its reach into campaigns for state courts as part of a strategy to help elect small-government, pro-business judges. The Washington, D.C., group plans to spend about $5 million on judicial races this year, reports WSJs Joe Palazzolo:

The effort to influence judicial elections is largely Republicanfor now, no Democratic group is systematically contributing to such races. The GOP committees president, Matt Walter, said his organizations main opponents are labor unions and groups of personal-injury lawyers, who have long contributed to state judicial races. Republican policies, he said, very often run into a buzz saw from liberal activist courts.

The money pouring in from out-of-state groups is upsetting genteel traditions under which judges in some states faced little opposition and avoided the ethically tricky process of soliciting big money and stumping for votes from constituents they might face in court. The attention is an acknowledgment of the role that state supreme courts play in shaping the business climate and social and government policies.

Voters in 38 states elect at least some appellate and trial judges, either in competitive races or single-candidate retention elections in which voters decide whether to keep an incumbent judge, according to advocacy group Justice at Stake. Outside the U.S., the practice of electing judges is almost unheard of.

In November, eight states will hold contested elections for supreme-court justices, and 14 states will hold votes on whether to retain judges, according to the article.

Spending on judicial races started taking off in the 1990s when trial lawyers and business groups began trying to influence elections. The trend has accelerated since the Supreme Court struck down federal limits on corporate and union political spending in its 2010 Citizens United ruling, said Bert Brandenburg, executive director of Justice at Stake, a nonpartisan advocacy group that considers the influx of money a threat to judicial independence.

Sending by special-interest groups and political parties on television ads and other electioneering in judicial races reached a record $24 million in the 2011-12 election cycle, according to research by Justice at Stake and the Brennan Center for Justice.

The Republican committee is also closely tracking judicial elections in Ohio, Michigan, Illinois and Texas, said Mr. Walter, who said the group is focusing on judges supportive of restraining government and creating pro-business growth opportunities.

In Montana, the committee began sending out leaflets last week that painted Mike Wheat, who is seeking re-election to the state Supreme Court, as an activist judge who helped foreign companies seize private property and sided with environmental extremists.

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Judges Hit the Stump as Outside Money Pours Into Judicial Races