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President Barack Obama's Democratic Party, which now holds a 55-seat majority in the Senate, can be sure of keeping 45 of them after Election Day. Republicans will hang on to 44 of their 45 seats.

That leaves 11 close races to settle the outcome.

Democrats or independents lead in just three of them. Incumbent Sen. Kay Hagan holds a slim advantage over Thom Tillis in North Carolina. Incumbent Sen. Jeanne Shaheen leads Republican Scott Brown in New Hampshire. And business executive Greg Ormanwho calls himself an independent but all Democrats are rooting for himmaintains a razor-thin advantage over Republican incumbent Pat Roberts in Kansas.

Republicans lead in eight of these battleground races. In Alaska, Arkansas Colorado and Louisiana, Republican challengers have built steady leads over respective Democratic incumbents Mark Begich, Mark Pryor, Mark Udall and Mary Landrieu. In open seat contests, Joni Ernst has moved ahead of Bruce Braley in Iowa, business executive David Perdue leads Michelle Nunn in Georgia, and ex-Gov. Mike Rounds has the advantage in South Dakota's three-way race. The sole embattled Republican incumbentSenate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentuckyhas the edge over Democratic Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes.

Read MoreRepublicans unlikely to sweep midterms: NBC/WSJ Poll

If those leads hold, McConnell will lead a 52-seat Republican majority in the Senate next January.

History tells us some of those leads will NOT hold. Roberts has been making headway against Orman in Kansas, which has elected only Republican senators since FDR's time. Nunn has been moving up in Georgia, where demographic change in recent years has swelled the proportion of Democrat-friendly non-white voters.

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Moreover, at least some candidates trailing at the very end are likely to win anyway because their campaigns do a better job of finding and mobilizing potential voters that public pollsters overlook. That's how Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet of Colorado, currently chairman of his party's Senate campaign, won his seat four years ago.

As a result, Democrats still have a chance to maintain their majority, and with it control of the Senate agenda for the last two years of Obama's presidency. But what we can see at this point makes it clear: They will need more of those fortunate breaks to fall their way than Republicans do.

Read more from the original source:
Midterms: Democrats need some fortunate breaks

By Ed Tibbetts, Quad City Times

DAVENPORT Republicans and Democrats were sparring Thursday over the meaning of new figures that show the GOP gaining the upper hand in absentee votes, a milestone for a party that until this election season put relatively little effort into the practice.

For years, Democrats have gained an electoral edge by winning the absentee vote, but Republicans vowed this year to make an unprecedented effort to catch up. And on Wednesday, they did.

Figures released early Thursday by the Iowa Secretary of States office showed 105,347 Republicans had voted early, while 104,984 Democrats had cast ballots. At this point four years ago, Democrats led by roughly 16,000 absentee votes.

I dont believe anybody thought we were going to have this kind of success, an exultant state GOP chair Jeff Kaufmann said Wednesday night, when it became clear that Republicans had gained the edge.

Democrats acknowledged Thursday the effort Republicans are putting into early voting, but they say the important thing is theyre still winning the battle to harvest voters who traditionally dont vote in midterm elections.

Democrats said that as of earlier this week, their data showed them to be about 12,000 ballots ahead of the Republicans among low-propensity voters.

Thats what matters, the party says. It does little good to get people who would have voted on Election Day to simply cast their votes early, they say.

Democrats are expanding the midterm electorate and are turning out non-midterm voters, said Christina Freundlich, a spokeswoman for the Iowa Democratic Party.

The party says 21 percent of its early voters are people who did not vote in 2010 and some who didnt vote in 2012, while 14 percent of the Republicans early votes this year didnt cast ballots in those elections.

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Democrats, Republicans spar over early vote milestone

Jacquelyn Martin / AP

In this June 30, 2014, photo, President Barack Obama, accompanied by Vice President Joe Biden, pauses while making a statement about immigration reform in the Rose Garden of the White House in Washington,D.C.

By Tovin Lapan (contact)

Thursday, Oct. 23, 2014 | 5:30 p.m.

Hispanic voters are increasingly frustrated with the federal impasse over immigration reform and are souring on Democrats, according to a new poll that also offers insights into the 2016 presidential race.

More than half of the 600 Hispanic registered voters polled by Latino Decisions said immigration is the most important issue in 2014, outpacing jobs and the economy, health care and education.

A majority of respondents said they disapprove of the way Republicans, Democrats and President Barack Obama are handling immigration, with 67 percent giving Republicans a thumbs down on the issue, and 53 percent and 51 percent disapproving of the Democrats and presidents efforts respectively.

Overall, Hispanic voters are more likely in 2014 than they were in 2012 to say they are voting to support the Hispanic community rather than one of the political parties, and Hispanic support of Democrats in general has waned.

Were seeing record high levels of frustration with both parties from Latinos, and we know a lot of that has to do with the lack of progress on immigration, Latino Decision co-founder Matt Barreto said on a press call discussing the results. For Latinos, this issue is even more important than it is to the general electoratea clear majority of Latinos know an undocumented immigrant. For them, immigration is deeply personal and symbolic. Both parties stand to lose serious support if they continue to take the Latino vote for granted. Theres clear signals of that happening in 2014 and even stronger signals for that in 2016.

More than half of those surveyed said they agreed with the statement: The Democratic Party expects Latinos to vote for them, but is unwilling to take political risks or take a stand on behalf of immigrants.

Here is the original post:
Poll: Hispanic support of Democrats dipping

Angst over President Obama's post-election plans on immigration is growing amid revelations that the Citizen and Immigration Service (USCIS) has issued a procurement request for as many as 34 million work permits and green cards.

The solicitation, discovered by Breitbart News, says bidders must be able to produce at least 4 million cards annually over a five year contract and surge to provide as many as 9 million documents in the early years of the contract.

This revelation provides startling confirmation of the crisis facing our Republic, said Senate Budget Committee ranking member Jeff Sessions (R-Ala.) The president is preparing to issue work authorization and legal status to millions of individuals illegally present in the country, in violation of plain statute.

The Alabama lawmaker added that the executive action looked poised to nullify the immigration laws of the United States and its sovereign people.

Similar speculation has lit up the conservative blogosphere, with many seeing it as an early sign of the administrations plans after the midterm elections.

Bob Dane, a spokesman for the Federation for American Immigration Reform, told Watchdog.org the president appears to be getting his ducks in a row before offering amnesty to illegal immigrants.

Its another petulant display of contempt of Congress, he said.

President Obama postponed action on immigration until after the election, saying he was worried that acting in the summer could politicize the issue. The move was also seen as a gift to vulnerable Senate Democrats who were worried executive action could motivate Republican voters to turn out at the polls.

But the White Houseon Wednesdayinsisted suggestions the procurement order was a precursor to the presidents executive action were crazy and too clever.

The fact of the matter is, there are still decisions to be made about what that policy will entail, and when were ready to announce that policy, we will announce it, press secretary Josh Earnest said. What I would caution you against doing is making assumptions about what will be in those announcements based on the procurement practices of the Department of Homeland Security.

Read the original:
Angst grows over Obamas plans for action on immigration

What Does the First Amendment Mean to You?
Group Members: Rex, Breeze, Keagan, Conner - Animas High School, Seniors - Feel free to view the rest of the seniors #39; videos at http://ahshumanities12.weebly...

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What Does the First Amendment Mean to You? - Video