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By Ashley Killough, CNN

updated 10:14 AM EDT, Fri October 24, 2014

Georgia Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate Michelle Nunn, right, speaks as Republican candidate David Perdue looks on during a debate, Tuesday, Oct. 7, 2014, in Perry, Ga.

STORY HIGHLIGHTS

(CNN) -- Democrat Michelle Nunn has a slight 47%-44% edge over Republican David Perdue in the Georgia race for an open Senate seat, according to a new CNN/ORC International survey released Friday.

The three-point margin falls within the poll's sampling error of plus or minus four percentage points, meaning the two candidates are statistically tied less than two weeks before Election Day.

If neither candidate garners 50% of the vote, the race heads to a January runoff.

Analysis: Will last minute strength be enough for Dems?

Democrats are throwing a lot of money in Georgia, as the party hopes to thwart what's widely expected to be a strong year for Senate Republicans and their quest to take control of the Senate. The GOP needs to win a net six seats to win the majority.

Libertarian candidate Amanda Swafford is pulling 5% of the vote in Georgia, keeping Nunn and Perdue from reaching the 50% threshold.

The rest is here:
Can a Democrat win in Georgia?

Washington Overall, Senate races in the 2014 midterms arent looking good for Democrats. States the Democratic Party once targeted as winnable, such as Iowa, Arkansas, Colorado, and Alaska, are tilting toward Republican candidates. Control of the Senate itself hangs in the balance, and most major forecast models now predict the GOP has a greater than 60 percent chance of winning the chamber.

But something different is happening in Georgia.

Georgias a red state that President Obama lost twice. Replacing retiring incumbent Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R) with another Republican should be an easy task. But right now, polls say it isnt. This fall, Democratic candidate Michelle Nunn has closed the gap with the GOPs David Perdue.

A CNN/ORC survey released Friday put Ms. Nunn ahead of Mr. Purdue by three percentage points, 47 to 44. An Atlanta Journal Constitution poll made public the same day had Purdue up by two points. Given margins of error, these polls are roughly compatible. The race is effectively a dead heat, with Nunn holding a one percentage point lead in RealClearPolitics rolling average of major polls.

Georgia is perhaps the closest Senate race in the country. Its the only one the New York Times Upshot Senate forecast model rates as a pure 50-50 tossup.

Whats going on? For one thing, Nunns name seems to be weighing in her favor. Shes the daughter of former Sen. Sam Nunn, a Democrat who represented Georgia from 1972 to 1997 and served as chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee.

Meanwhile Perdue, a wealthy businessman, has struggled to overcome some aspects of his past work. Hes said on camera that he was proud of outsourcing he carried out as CEO of a North Carolina-based textile firm that eventually went into bankruptcy.

The clip has featured in Nunn ads flooding the Atlanta media market. Suddenly, Perdues biggest asset his business career has become a liability, writes Michael Warren Friday in the right-leaning Weekly Standard.

But theres a complicating factor here Georgia law calls for a two-candidate runoff to decide the Senate race if no one candidate receives more than 50 percent. There is a third party candidate running, Libertarian Amanda Swafford, and shes attracting about 4 to 5 percent of the vote in polls. That could be enough to keep the first-place finisher under the 50 percent threshold and trigger the runoff provision.

Some analysts think its possible that Nunn, with her tiny lead in the polling average, could just manage 50 percent on Nov. 4.Nate Cohn at The Upshot says that minor party candidates in Georgia typically draw only around 2 percent of the vote, so that Ms. Swaffords support may shrink when people actually go to the polls.

Excerpt from:
Could Democrat Michelle Nunn actually win Georgia Senate race?

Rep. John Barrow speaks at First African Baptist Church in Dublin, Ga. Barrow needs African-Americans to turn out on Election Day, but they're not enough to put him over the top. Sarah McCammon/NPR hide caption

Rep. John Barrow speaks at First African Baptist Church in Dublin, Ga. Barrow needs African-Americans to turn out on Election Day, but they're not enough to put him over the top.

For Republicans, Democrats in red states seem ripe for the picking in midterm election years, when the GOP usually has an advantage in voter turnout. One of their targets this year is Rep. John Barrow of Georgia, who faces one of the tightest races in the nation.

Barrow, often described as the "last white Democrat in Congress from the Deep South," is trying to hold onto his seat.

At First African Baptist Church in Dublin, Ga., a bronze plaque beside the front door reminds visitors that this is where a 14-year-old Martin Luther King Jr. gave his first public speech.

Pastor Keith Anderson stands behind the pulpit and welcomes Barrow to the service, while making a dig at Washington gridlock.

"I'm glad, Congressman Barrow, that I don't have to sit in the Senate or in the Congress and the only way my business gets done is if I get the majority to support [it]," Anderson says.

Even if Congress seems ineffective, Anderson assures his congregation, there is power in prayer to get things done.

Barrow tells the audience of about 60 people that even in Washington, he gets things done; he ticks off efforts to bring jobs to Georgia by promoting nuclear energy and expanding the Port of Savannah.

Barrow is comfortable here, among traditionally Democratic African-American voters. He describes himself as a Democrat in the tradition of his father, a judge known for helping to keep public schools open after desegregation. Barrow needs African-Americans to turn out on Election Day they make up more than a third of his district. But they're not enough to put him over the top.

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Courting Republicans, Georgia Democrat Tries To Keep His Seat

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