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There's a tendency in Washington political circles to dismiss Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul's chances in the 2016 presidential race. He's not someone who could actually be the nominee, the argument goes, because his views -- especially on foreign policy -- are way outside the mainstream of GOP thought, and that fact means that he will never be accepted by a party establishment that still retains considerable sway in picking the party's standard-bearer.

And yet, Paul just keeps doing smart things to ensure that if he is able to get in a position to be the party's nominee, the establishment won't necessarily feel the need to try to keep the nomination from him. The latest smart move? RAND PAC, Paul's leadership political action committee, is going up with ads supporting Republican Senate incumbents and candidates in Kentucky, Kansas, Iowa, New Hampshire and North Carolina in the final week of the election.

None of the ad buys are massive or are likely to make any real impact in the final days of these races. But the point isn't really to sway persuadable voters. It's to (a) show that Rand is a team player and (b) build up some chits among people either in the Senate or, maybe, coming to the Senate in the next week or so.

Let's say Joni Ernst in Iowa winds up winning the state's open seat next Tuesday. And then in a few months (or maybe even weeks) Rand announces that he is running for president. Shortly after making that announcement, he calls newly elected Senator Ernst, a favorite of Iowa's conservatives. And, on that call, he reminds Ernst that when she needed him most he was there -- appearing at a rally by her side at the University of Iowa and spending money out of his own campaign coffers to help her win. Given that, he'd love to have her on his Iowa team for president. Of course, he doesn't need her to commit right away -- although that would be great -- but just wanted to plant the seed.

Now, simply because Paul gave of his time and his money doesn't mean that Ernst will feel compelled to endorse him for president. Lots of people -- including many who will likely run for president -- came in to help Ernst and will claim some level of credit if she wins. But the very fact that Paul is thinking about the best ways to court influential pols (or potential pols) in key swing states suggests a level of strategic planning -- and savvy -- that most people don't ascribe to him.

And, as I noted above, it's far from the first smart thing Paul has done as he tries to make sure the establishment knows he doesn't have horns and a tail. Earlier this year, Paul courted major donors at a fundraiser in Atlanta -- not necessarily with the expectation that they would all be for him in 2016 but with the hope that they wouldn't all be aggressively against him either. He's done lots of things like that -- with pols and donors -- over the last 18 months or so, a concerted effort that suggest Paul not only understands how he is perceived by some in the establishment but is also committed to trying to change that perception.

Now, making smart moves in November 2014 is one thing. Making smart moves in January 2016 is another. But, the best candidates (a.k.a. the ones who win) not only play the long game but start playing it long before most people are even thinking about the game. Rand Paul is doing just that.

Chris Cillizza writes The Fix, a politics blog for the Washington Post. He also covers the White House.

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The Fix: Rand Paul is smarter than you think he is

There's a tendency in Washington political circles to dismiss Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul's chances in the 2016 presidential race. He's not someone who could actually be the nominee, the argument goes, because his views -- especially on foreign policy -- are way outside the mainstream of GOP thought, and that fact means that he will never be accepted by a party establishment that still retains considerable sway in picking the party's standard-bearer.

And yet, Paul just keeps doing smart things to ensure that if he is able to get in a position to be the party's nominee, the establishment won't necessarily feel the need to try to keep the nomination from him. The latest smart move? RAND PAC, Paul's leadership political action committee, is going up with ads supporting Republican Senate incumbents and candidates in Kentucky, Kansas, Iowa, New Hampshire and North Carolina in the final week of the election.

None of the ad buys are massive or are likely to make any real impact in the final days of these races. But the point isn't really to sway persuadable voters. It's to (a) show that Rand is a team player and (b) build up some chits among people either in the Senate or, maybe, coming to the Senate in the next week or so.

Let's say Joni Ernst in Iowa winds up winning the state's open seat next Tuesday. And then in a few months (or maybe even weeks) Rand announces that he is running for president. Shortly after making that announcement, he calls newly elected Senator Ernst, a favorite of Iowa's conservatives. And, on that call, he reminds Ernst that when she needed him most he was there -- appearing at a rally by her side at the University of Iowa and spending money out of his own campaign coffers to help her win. Given that, he'd love to have her on his Iowa team for president. Of course, he doesn't need her to commit right away -- although that would be great -- but just wanted to plant the seed.

Now, simply because Paul gave of his time and his money doesn't mean that Ernst will feel compelled to endorse him for president. Lots of people -- including many who will likely run for president -- came in to help Ernst and will claim some level of credit if she wins. But the very fact that Paul is thinking about the best ways to court influential pols (or potential pols) in key swing states suggests a level of strategic planning -- and savvy -- that most people don't ascribe to him.

And, as I noted above, it's far from the first smart thing Paul has done as he tries to make sure the establishment knows he doesn't have horns and a tail. Earlier this year, Paul courted major donors at a fundraiser in Atlanta -- not necessarily with the expectation that they would all be for him in 2016 but with the hope that they wouldn't all be aggressively against him either. He's done lots of things like that -- with pols and donors -- over the last 18 months or so, a concerted effort that suggest Paul not only understands how he is perceived by some in the establishment but is also committed to trying to change that perception.

Now, making smart moves in November 2014 is one thing. Making smart moves in January 2016 is another. But, the best candidates (a.k.a. the ones who win) not only play the long game but start playing it long before most people are even thinking about the game. Rand Paul is doing just that.

Chris Cillizza writes The Fix, a politics blog for the Washington Post. He also covers the White House.

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Rand Paul is smarter than you think he is

TOPEKA, Kan., Oct. 28 (UPI) -- Tea party favorite Rand Paul is throwing his political weight behind Pat Roberts in the Kansas Republican's struggle to retain his Senate seat in Tuesday's election.

RandPac, Paul's political action committee, has produced a new ad touting Roberts' opposition to sending aid to countries "where radicals storm our embassies, burn our flag and kill our diplomats" -- a reference to votes on funding for Egypt, Pakistan and Libya.

The ad is a "six-figure" buy that will run on broadcast, cable and online through election day, said Doug Stafford, executive director of RandPac.

Roberts is in an unexpectedly tight battle with independent Greg Orman, who broke ahead after Democratic nominee Chad Taylor dropped off the ballot. Orman, who has not said which party caucus he would join if he won, has since managed to hang on to a razor-thin edge with a week to go before the vote.

Sen. Paul, a potential 2016 candidate, has been a frequent visitor to Republican campaign stops around the country, appearing in more than 30 states this cycle, RandPac said.

RandPac will also air ads in New Hampshire, Iowa, North Carolina and for his Kentucky colleague Mtich McConnell, and the senator appears in ads for the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.

He is also scheduled to campaign in Kansas on Tuesday.

2014 United Press International, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Any reproduction, republication, redistribution and/or modification of any UPI content is expressly prohibited without UPI's prior written consent.

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Rand Paul helps out Pat Roberts with 6-figure ad buy

Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) is spending the closing leg of the midterm campaign by visibly dialing up the strategy he embraced at its very start: Playing nice with the GOP establishment.

Ahead of a possible run for president, the Kentucky senator is going out of his way to help mainstream Republicans in need of a dose of tea party energy and star power. The moves could help Paul broaden his appeal in the Republican Party in a way his father, Ron Paul, never could.

Paul's latest contribution comes in Kansas, where longtime Sen. Pat Roberts (R) has been trying for weeks to woo Republican voters who fear he he lost touch with them back into his corner. The Kentucky senator plans to campaign Tuesday for Roberts in Kansas, who is locked in a close race with insurgent independent Senate candidate Greg Orman.

A Roberts loss next week could spoil GOP hopes of retaking control of the U.S. Senate -- unless Orman, who hasn't signaled yet which party he would caucus with as a senator, opts to join up with Republicans.

To help Roberts, Paul's super PAC, RAND PAC, plans to air a new television ad today through Election Day that trumpets the Kansas senator's support for a Paul proposal that would have cut off direct U.S. aid or loan forgiveness to Egypt, Libya, Pakistan and any other country where a U.S. diplomatic facility was attacked, trespassed or in any way breached.

Paul's 2012 bill was written in response to the Sept. 11, 2012 terrorist attack on the U.S. diplomatic compound in Benghazi, Libya and was ultimately defeated in the Senate. Similar ad buys with similar TV messages are being made in Kentucky, New Hampshire, Iowa and North Carolina, according to aides.

The Kentucky junior senator rose to stardom as an anti-establishment hero in 2010, winning his primary in an upset against a candidate backed by Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.). His views, particularly on foreign policy and national security, are out of sync with many party leaders. And he sports a following of libertarian-leaning conservatives who often don't fit the mold of the traditional Republican.

But for the 2014 cycle, Paul has been a consummate team player. He endorsed McConnell very early in his fellow senator's primary fight, offering the GOP leader conservative cover against his insurgent challenger. Paul has also cut ads for the Chamber of Commerce, the largest business organization in the country and a group that has often feuded with the tea party. The ads have helped mainstream Republican candidates in North Carolina and Alaska -- two crucial contests in the battle for the Senate majority where Libertarian candidates are also running.

Both McConnell and the Chamber benefited from Paul in 2012. At best, they could be major Paul allies in the presidential bid; at worst, non-hostile entities. They are both tied to deep and powerful donor pools and party kingmakers. So these moves are about much more than direct support -- they're also about opening doors.

Paul's political network has taken a foothold in the establishment at the staff level, too. Jesse Benton, a top ally, worked as McConnell's campaign manager and a top strategist for his leadership PAC. Benton was very well-compensated by McConnell, making more than $500,000 during the last two years -- a sign of his high value in the eyes of the Senate's top Republican.

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Rand Pauls midterm strategy: Win over the GOP establishment ahead of 2016

U.S. Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., speaks at a campaign event for Republican businessman Rod Blum, who is running against Democratic state lawmaker Pat Murphy in the 1st Congressional District, Wednesday, Oct. 22, 2014, on the University of Northern Iowa campus ... more >

RandPAC, the leadership PAC of GOPSen. Rand Paul of Kentucky, is making a six-figure ad buy to boost incumbent Sen. Pat Roberts in Kansas, who is trying to avoid being drummed out of office by independent candidate Greg Orman.

When the Senate voted to keep sending billions to countries that hate us, Pat Roberts said no, a narrator says in the 30-second spot in reference to votes on aid for Egypt, Pakistan and Libya.

Pat Roberts was one of a few true conservative senators who stood with Rand Paul and said stop sending taxpayers money to countries where radicals storm our embassies, burn our flag and kill our diplomats, the ad continues. Pat Roberts fighting for our American home, by bringing our tax dollars home.

The PAC said the ad will be on broadcast, cable and online, and is scheduled to run from Tuesday through Election Day.

The PAC for Mr. Paul, a likely 2016 GOP presidential contender, also plans to air ads in other states with competitive U.S. Senate races and a few with early presidential nominating contests like Kentucky, New Hampshire, Iowa and North Carolina.

Mr. Paul has also appeared in Chamber of Commerce ads in both Alaska and North Carolina and has barnstormed more than 30 states this cycle on behalf of candidates as he lays the groundwork for a possible 2016 run.

Continued here:
Rand Paul's PAC makes six-figure ad buy in Kansas Senate race