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Senate Armed Services Committee Member U.S. Sen. Kay Hagan (D-NC) is pursued by reporters after being briefed by military officials about the prisoner exchange that freed Army Sgt. Bowe Bergdahl at the U.S. Capitol June 10, 2014 in Washington, D.C. Chip Somodevilla, Getty Images

In 2008, Senate Democrats managed to strengthen its foothold in the South in part by capitalizing on the excitement that President Obama's campaign generated. Democratic Sens. Mark Pryor of Arkansas and Mary Landrieu of Louisiana were re-elected, while Democrat Kay Hagan won her first term in North Carolina. All told, Senate Democrats had a breakthrough year, taking eight seats -- the most they'd won since 1986.

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This year, those same Democrats are on the ballot again, and they're trying to keep up the support of the Democratic base that Mr. Obama helped them build. At the same time, politicians like Landrieu and Hagan know full well that a Southern Democrat can't rely solely on the support of liberal voters, particularly when the president has become so unpopular.

"The Democratic incumbents are trying to find the balance between declaring their independence from President Obama to appeal to voters in the middle but also capturing the energy of the Democratic base who still approves of President Obama," Nathan Gonzales, deputy editor of the Rothenberg Political Report, told CBS News. "It's a tough line to walk."

With four weeks left until Election Day, polling suggests some Southern Democrats are pulling off the balancing act better than others. In the past month, Hagan has gained a slight edge against her Republican challenger, North Carolina House Speaker Thomas Tillis. Pryor, however, appears to be slightly trailing his GOP challenger, Rep. Tom Cotton, while Landrieu is in a hard-fought race against Rep. Bill Cassidy that appears headed for a runoff.

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Meanwhile, Democratic Senate candidate Michelle Nunn is putting up a surprisingly strong challenge in Georgia Republican David Perdue in the open race to replace retiring Republican Sen. Saxby Chambliss. Nunn appears to be trailing Perdue, but she is within striking distance in the red state.

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Without Obama, Southern Democrats try to hang on

Most people dont like to discuss their failures. The Democrats, however, seem unwilling to discuss their successes. This is the story of Obamacare.

For those who have forgotten, the Affordable Care Act was pushed through Congress almost entirely with Democratic votes. The Republicans objected, insisting the bill would destroy the health care system and the economy.

On the health care side, the Republicans issued dire warnings that the bill would lead to rationing of services, socialized medicine and death panels.

On the economics, they called the bill a massive job killer. It would deter businesses from hiring workers, and the workers they did hire would be part-time. Exploding health care costs would both break the budget and the economy. The deficit would explode, and insurance premiums would soar.

The widely predicted disaster did not happen.

In the data available so far, enrollment in the exchanges and Medicaid was higher than projected.

Over 8 million people enrolled in the exchanges through the first four months of 2014, far more than the 6 million that had been projected. Almost 5 million more benefited through the expansion of Medicaid. The percentage of people uninsured fell to the lowest level since 1997 in the first quarter of 2014 and is virtually certain to fall much farther as enrollment continues to rise.

Costs have been far lower than expected. The Congressional Budget Office has repeatedly lowered its cost projections for the ACA and health care more generally. The savings for Medicare alone are projected to be well over $1 trillion in the next decade.

Private health care costs have also risen at their slowest pace on record in the last five years, saving most families thousands of dollars on costs. All of the savings cannot be attributed to the ACA, but can anyone doubt that if cost growth had accelerated, the Republicans would blame the ACA regardless of the actual cause?

The story of the ACA as a job killer also doesnt hold water. No one can be happy about the current state of the labor market we still have a long way to go to recover from the collapse of the housing bubble but the weak economy cant be blamed on the ACA.

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Dean Baker: Democrats must stand up for Obamacare

There are a number of reasons the Democrats will almost certainly not win back the House of Representatives in 2014: Congressional redistricting after the 2010 Census favored the Republicans. The GOP has a small army of well-heeled incumbents on the fall ballot. And this years primaries did not roil the waters; they sent only three Republican House members (and one Democrat) to the sidelines.

But arguably the most compelling factor working against House Democrats is history. They need a net gain of 17 seats in November to reach a majority of 218. That, in itself, is not a particularly daunting number.

But it is when one looks at the midterm election results of the past century and a half.

Only four times since 1862 has the presidents party netted a gain of even one House seat in a midterm election. And in no midterm since the Civil War has the net gain by the presidents party exceeded nine seats, barely half of what the Democrats would need to win control of the House next month. This, according to data published in Vital Statistics on American Politics 2011-2012.

On all four of these occasions that the presidents party scored midterm House gains, the occupant of the White House was near the height of his popularity: Theodore Roosevelt in 1902, when the GOP posted midterm gains after the House had undergone a major expansion; Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1934, his first midterm held in the initial stages of the New Deal; Bill Clinton in 1998, when congressional Republicans made an ill-starred attempt to impeach him; and George W. Bush in the 2002 midterm, which was held between the 9/11 attacks and the launch of the war in Iraq.

Barack Obamas position these days is much weaker. His presidential approval rating is well under 50%, down in the arid terrain where the presidents party invariably loses House seats.

To be sure, no one is predicting huge House losses for the Democrats this timethey dont have that many vulnerable seats left after losing 63 in 2010. But hardly anyone is predicting that they will win a House majority next month either. If you find someone who does, take the bet. History says that it should be a safe one.

Rhodes Cook is a political analyst and publisher of a bimonthly political newsletter.

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Could Democrats Win the House in November? History Says No.

Every serious politico is baffled by the polling on this falls elections, in which Democratic Senate candidates across the country are doing a remarkable job of hanging in despite the general consensus that under conventional circumstances this would be a wave year for Republicans.

It should be a wave, experts say, because a) President Obama has a very low approval rating, b) a huge majority of Americans says the country is on the wrong track and c) more Americans say its time to replace their own representatives than ever before in modern history.

The issue environment, as they say, also works against the Democrats. ObamaCare remains unpopular. The world is in chaos, and Obamas foreign policy appears inept at best. There hasnt been a good piece of news out of Washington in God only knows how long.

Meanwhile, in the realm of electoral politics, the GOP has cleaned up its act. In 2010 and 2012, Republican efforts to capture the Senate fell short thanks to the profound weaknesses of certain GOP candidates, who self-destructed spectacularly.

Thats not the case this year, when by common consent Republicans have a pretty remarkable slate of candidates across the country.

Even in Minnesota, a state where the GOP has little hope, Sen. Al Franken faces a first-rate challenger in businessman Mike McFadden, who whomped Franken in a debate last week.

Speaking of debates, I watched one between Colorado Democratic Sen. Mark Udall and challenger Cory Gardner, in which it would not be hyperbole to say Gardner wiped the floor with the incumbent.

This race is emblematic of the improvement in the Republican Partys overall approach in 2014.

Gardner, a dynamic House member, only secured his partys nomination when the Colorado GOP cleared his path by ensuring his congressional seat would be Ken Bucks for the taking.

Buck, a social-conservative darling in a purple state, had lost a race for Senate he shouldve won in 2010 and likely wouldve lost again this year.

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Why Democrats may keep the Senate

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Oct. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Immigration reform is a hot-button issue. Just days ago, President Obama vowed to take executive action by year #39;s end. But, how exactly are federal agents protecting the...

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